Windows 10 Mobile's End

[anon(50597)]

I had to move to Android because MS decided to drop support for their own apps (MS Teams) for W10M. If they hadn't done that then I would not have switched.

Everyone has something. It’s too bad but a reality, whether people want to admit it or not.
Maybe some day things will change.

 

[nate0]

It is interesting to see the types of user base that had to leave Windows phones and W10M behind. In some ways I thought most of those left using the OS now are users who don't care about all the social engaging apps or media consumption related apps. There are many who use it still for productivity mostly and probably the camera hw. If Microsoft starts dwindling more of their own services off W10M which in time will be inevitable as services/the core OS/apps evolve, more and more users will decide to look else where for mobile like services/hw.

Another thought here just thinking out loud...So am I wrong in saying Xbox and W10M are the only true consumer related/focused hw/products/services that Microsoft has at current. Surface is aimed at Enterprise/Education and Holo Lens at Enterprise and or Specific Industries. Are there others? I guess Windows 10 itself could be considered consumer focused since it is bundled together in a multitude of different applications consumer facing (tablets/Foldables/PCs/etc).
The store its apps and UWP may start seeing a surge soon or may already as 700 million or so devices running Microsoft's updated services is a big deal. I think Microsoft would (if they could) want to soon be in a good position to usher in a new set of hw/products/services to take the place of its dying Windows Phones/W10M. Could they though be looking a generation ahead? The current crop of users like you and I or others may not decide to use their services in the foreseeable future, only due to the nature of the timing. The longer they leave W10M sitting on Life support with no way out the worse it could get. But some of us may have the why fix it if aint broken type of mentality and stay wherever we have planted ourselves. However I think if Microsoft did usher in the right combination of HW product and matching services or capabilities of the like they could easily boost that 700M to 1B exponentially in record time.

Of course none this will probably happen at all or the way each of us would want or need. At least for now we can use Lumias and other W10M phones in their basic state until some time 2019 or longer....

 

[anon(50597)]

I’m not sure Nate. It’s hard to say if people will ever want to go back to Microsoft after being burned so many times. Especially when other companies provide similar services.
Heck, I’m not sure Microsoft knows what it plans to do.

 

[Drael646464]

It is interesting to see the types of user base that had to leave Windows phones and W10M behind. In some ways I thought most of those left using the OS now are users who don't care about all the social engaging apps or media consumption related apps. There are many who use it still for productivity mostly and probably the camera hw. If Microsoft starts dwindling more of their own services off W10M which in time will be inevitable as services/the core OS/apps evolve, more and more users will decide to look else where for mobile like services/hw.

Another thought here just thinking out loud...So am I wrong in saying Xbox and W10M are the only true consumer related/focused hw/products/services that Microsoft has at current. Surface is aimed at Enterprise/Education and Holo Lens at Enterprise and or Specific Industries. Are there others? I guess Windows 10 itself could be considered consumer focused since it is bundled together in a multitude of different applications consumer facing (tablets/Foldables/PCs/etc).
The store its apps and UWP may start seeing a surge soon or may already as 700 million or so devices running Microsoft's updated services is a big deal. I think Microsoft would (if they could) want to soon be in a good position to usher in a new set of hw/products/services to take the place of its dying Windows Phones/W10M. Could they though be looking a generation ahead? The current crop of users like you and I or others may not decide to use their services in the foreseeable future, only due to the nature of the timing. The longer they leave W10M sitting on Life support with no way out the worse it could get. But some of us may have the why fix it if aint broken type of mentality and stay wherever we have planted ourselves. However I think if Microsoft did usher in the right combination of HW product and matching services or capabilities of the like they could easily boost that 700M to 1B exponentially in record time.

Of course none this will probably happen at all or the way each of us would want or need. At least for now we can use Lumias and other W10M phones in their basic state until some time 2019 or longer....

What UWP has lacked is a real drive to make them. You need a crossplatform base to drive it, and most things aren't needed on an xbox. I think the combo of windows on ARM and windows s, could be the secret sauce. Laptops are huge, and people will still use win32 on them - but the developers will want to make their products competitive. PWA will help (in fact, in the long run it may eliminate all the advantages of mobile OS ecosystems over windows). PWA also suits googles interests because it seems 90 percent likely they want to ditch android and chrome in the long run, and use something without a Linux base (like fushia).

It's all about finding whatever can be leveraged, and using it. The mountain is steep to move windows to UWP and cross platform completely. Some things like AR will take a long time to properly reach consumer markets. I suspect the same will be true of windows core, and it's products like folding tablet phones.

But with that long view of more IoT, AR, convergence, device catergories, and PWA removing most of the app game, all MSFT has to keep in play is getting those powerful apps and games exclusive to windows, to have a general drift towards UWP. Keep plying the developers, building devices that call for it, and offering a motive to make them.

I think the odds are reasonable, but time will tell. Certainly I do think long term they wish to reclaim consumer markets. But all the next big leaps will require enterprise to fine tune, and make cheaper - plus is a good ongoing revenue source.


Apples not even making a hybrid, and their iPhone business is about to crash post-adoption phase. And I don't know how well along fushia is for google, but I also don't consider google search a permenant monopoly. Apple could upset that easily. Indeed any smart AI code could make one of the big players have a better search (msft, amazon, apple or even something small like duckduckgo). If AI can be self-generating, and produce things like structure designs human beings can come up with, it can certainly make a better search and webcrawling system.

Nothing is certain in tech, but I think MSFT has a few legs to rest on and a thirst to break through, and that I think will serve it better than one primary income stream and a little bit of basking in ones successes. Hunger is a powerful thing. The question is I suppose, can their hunger sustain itself over the years required to see the end of its labours. Can they retain the optimism....

 

[fatclue_98]

I’m not sure Nate. It’s hard to say if people will ever want to go back to Microsoft after being burned so many times. Especially when other companies provide similar services.
Heck, I’m not sure Microsoft knows what it plans to do.

To say people will never go "back" to Microsoft is a misnomer. Unless you work in an environment where there are no PCs, or it's an Apple-only workplace, how many of us can truly say we're Microsoft-free? If there are features to be had, people will follow. Not all of course but some of us open minded people will.

Sent from my Alcatel Idol 4S on mTalk

 

[anon(50597)]

To say people will never go "back" to Microsoft is a misnomer. Unless you work in an environment where there are no PCs, or it's an Apple-only workplace, how many of us can truly say we're Microsoft-free? If there are features to be had, people will follow. Not all of course but some of us open minded people will.

Sent from my Alcatel Idol 4S on mTalk

Of course I was talking about consumers. Try to keep up Mr. fatclue.

Microsoft isn’t going away for those of us stuck using it in the business world. Not anytime soon at least. They are entrenched in businesses across the world.

Consumers have left in droves and they are a different story.

 

[Drael646464]

Of course I was talking about consumers. Try to keep up Mr. fatclue.

Microsoft isn’t going away for those of us stuck using it in the business world. Not anytime soon at least. They are entrenched in businesses across the world.

Consumers have left in droves and they are a different story.

Not in the gaming world. x-box+pc gaming is the dominant gaming platform. Bigger than playstation. Microsoft in fact makes a tidy portion of it's income from gaming.

 

[fatclue_98]

Not in the gaming world. x-box+pc gaming is the dominant gaming platform. Bigger than playstation. Microsoft in fact makes a tidy portion of it's income from gaming.

You're talking to a couple of old farts who don't care about gaming. At least I don't. ??????

 

[nate0]

You're talking to a couple of old farts who don't care about gaming. At least I don't.

The last time I owned a gaming console we referred to it as the SNES...

 

[fatclue_98]

The last time I owned a gaming console we referred to it as the SNES...

The last time I owned a gaming console it was called Pong.

Sent from my Alcatel Idol 4S on mTalk

 

[nate0]

The last time I owned a gaming console it was called Pong.

Sent from my Alcatel Idol 4S on mTalk

Atari 8 bit?

 

[tgp]

The last time I owned a gaming console we referred to it as the SNES...

The last time I owned a gaming console it was called Pong.

The last time I gamed at all it was on a Commodore 64.

 

[fatclue_98]

Atari 8 bit?

Some Magnavox thing. This was the 70s dude, there was no Atari.

 

[anon(50597)]

You're talking to a couple of old farts who don't care about gaming. At least I don't. í ¾í´£

You tell him!
Wait, did you call me an old fart?

 

[Drael646464]

The last time I gamed at all it was on a Commodore 64.

Dear lord. That's a long time with no games.

Anyway, my point ONLY was that MSFT is in consumer business at a core level. Games is certainly a consumer product, and huge business for MSFT. There's other examples obviously surface is a consumer product, the cortana speaker thingo, some of the windows 10 licenses will be consumers, skype is also a consumer product, and office isn't a stranger to the home.

Eventually cloud services will likely be a consumer area too. I know it's a gripe people have that MSFT have jettisoned some consumer products over the years, but I think the collective griping tallies to a sort of exageration.

The line between enterprise and consumer products is not so clear either. HoloLens will undoubtably be a consumer product one day, but only with the initial investment of enterprise.

One simply hopes they learn the lessons of the smartphone past and don't pull a blackberry when the moment consumers enter the equation arrives. But I think they will, I see a different company under Nadella. Willing to take some risks, have some vision.

I honestly think it's apple these days that tends toward a lack of vision. They should know that the iPhone is not going to continue to sustain them long term. Post-adoption globally approaches fast. New apple tech seems particularly lacking in creativity.

Anyway, games, I don't play a lot either. I like classic isometric RPGs. Lucky for me their are having a renaissance.

 

[anon(50597)]

Dear lord. That's a long time with no games.

Anyway, my point ONLY was that MSFT is in consumer business at a core level. Games is certainly a consumer product, and huge business for MSFT. There's other examples obviously surface is a consumer product, the cortana speaker thingo, some of the windows 10 licenses will be consumers, skype is also a consumer product, and office isn't a stranger to the home.

Eventually cloud services will likely be a consumer area too. I know it's a gripe people have that MSFT have jettisoned some consumer products over the years, but I think the collective griping tallies to a sort of exageration.

The line between enterprise and consumer products is not so clear either. HoloLens will undoubtably be a consumer product one day, but only with the initial investment of enterprise.

One simply hopes they learn the lessons of the smartphone past and don't pull a blackberry when the moment consumers enter the equation arrives. But I think they will, I see a different company under Nadella. Willing to take some risks, have some vision.

I honestly think it's apple these days that tends toward a lack of vision. They should know that the iPhone is not going to continue to sustain them long term. Post-adoption globally approaches fast. New apple tech seems particularly lacking in creativity.

Anyway, games, I don't play a lot either. I like classic isometric RPGs. Lucky for me their are having a renaissance.

I agree that Microsoft has a lot of potential in the consumer market, I’m just not sure I have confidence they will succeed. It’s up to them.
As far as Apple not innovating, they certainly lack the vision of Jobs, but they still have the market and ability to lead the way. I see AR as being big with them. There is talk of them getting in the eyeglass business (real eyeglasses with AR abilities). I wouldn’t count them out just yet.

 

[Drael646464]

I agree that Microsoft has a lot of potential in the consumer market, I’m just not sure I have confidence they will succeed. It’s up to them.
As far as Apple not innovating, they certainly lack the vision of Jobs, but they still have the market and ability to lead the way. I see AR as being big with them. There is talk of them getting in the eyeglass business (real eyeglasses with AR abilities). I wouldn’t count them out just yet.

Yeah I'm not counting them out entirely. I also suspect they are working on an AI search engine, and for sure they will probably try something like a HoloLens.

I just think that their refusal to make a hybrid OS, and how they are lagging behind with iOS is indicative of a sort of commercial contentment that is often detrimental.

(As an aside, MSFT also has a glasses form factor AR screen tech in proto. Main issue with it so far, is it's monochromatic, ie the size limits the quality of the display - and of course you need to fit in a battery and processor as well, and smart glasses that already exist struggle with this, creating some extra bulk - so I think it will be quite some time before anything both affordable, and desireable to the public gets to that size - certainly a niche product is possible, but AR wearables won't be "the next big thing" for some time yet - for one they lack any substantial ecosystem. MSFT is sort of ahead here with the UWP platform and the new design language, but it's still pretty early days)

Another issue there is that mobile networks cause cancer in close proximity to the body. Wearing something all day on your head is probably not going to be advisable. Carrying a phone as well, somewhat defeats the purpose. So that's another obstacle.

I won't say google doesn't have similar issues. Yes they are making a hybrid OS, and software wise they are fairly innovative (AI, AR, VR android is ahead of the curve), but they still depend on one profit stream that count potentially get toppled and some of their ideas haven't caught on well (Like google VR, nobody uses it).

They need to diversify, in the same way that apple needs something more than the iPhone.

I wouldn't bet my life savings on any of them being major players in 30 years time, Microsoft, apple or google. But if I _had_ to bet, I would probably pick Microsoft, if only because they do have more than one income stream and so they can endure radical market shifts. It also helps they have good quality partnerships with other promising companies like Samsung, steam and amazon. One benefit of being a perceived underdog - other companies will join hands quite earnestly in order to topple the king. I think the amazon partnership could be very fruitful in the long run, as they seem like forerunners ATM in IoT, servers, and MSFT in cloud technology. Samsung might pay off later too, should MFSTs gambit in foldable tech give them a place in foldable tablet phones (we're going to need a shorter name for that ).

Steam of course will absolutely pay off, in VR, especially when xbox gets mixed reality. Consoles I think are going to be the primary portal to VR - especially zero set-up mixed reality, because they perfectly blend a good experience, with simplicity/accessibility. When it gets to a cable-less experience and evolves a bit (and gets nice and cheap), I can see VR taking off. Indeed, I think it'll probably grow before AR, AI, IoT or graphene tech make substantial waves in the consumer market.

No doubt Samsung will keep it's place in mobile tech, even if the OSes or players change, partly because they've always offered budget options as well, but also because they have TVs and all sorts, so that's truely their game hardware. If premium smartphones slow down, their business model can adapt.

Samsung is another company I have some faith will still exist as a major player in 30 years.

 

[anon(50597)]

Yeah I'm not counting them out entirely. I also suspect they are working on an AI search engine, and for sure they will probably try something like a HoloLens.

I just think that their refusal to make a hybrid OS, and how they are lagging behind with iOS is indicative of a sort of commercial contentment that is often detrimental.

I hear what you’re saying. Blackberry learned the hard way by being content. I don’t think Apples that stupid.
I understand where people think they lag behind and aren’t innovative. I just think they have determined that sometimes it’s better to perfect rather than always be first. Their customers appreciate that.
Will this model work forever? Of course not. Like you said, in 30 years all of them could be gone. Most people don’t care about that far in the future though, they care about what works for them today. Today there are really only 2 choices, tomorrow who knows.

 

[nate0]

Some Magnavox thing. This was the 70s dude, there was no Atari.

The atari 8 bit was out in 79.

Pong was created by atari in 72.

 

[fatclue_98]

The atari 8 bit was out in 79.

Pong was created by atari in 72.

I had mine around 74 or 75. That was the epitome of cool for a 10 year old at the time.