Yes, that would be my guess as well :smile:
The sad truth is, no one knows. As japser states, it's a guess, although a good guess that those who don't have a current install will get it a bit later.
How is this guess arrived at? Microsoft plans to give the final version on the 29th to Insiders through the Windows 10 Update. Others who have reserved Windows 10 will get the upgrade path a bit later, but not much later.
I would also imagine that Insiders will also get the first chance to download the ISO for clean installs IF Microsoft releases it as such. That would be great for me, as I'm hoping to wait on the ISO to do the install.
I had helped to test several builds of both the phone and desktop Windows 10 OS, but am currently rolled back to 8.1 on both due to needing some of the functionality until 10 is complete.
For now, I am a WINO (Windows Insider in Name Only). WINOs don't generally get all the fun upgrades that active Insiders get.