Surface not-Phone already losing the hype war?

Drael646464

New member
Apr 2, 2017
2,219
0
0
Visit site
Here's a scenario for you. Try to convince any Android user to convert from their Samsung to a Oneplus, or from an LG to a Huawei. That is in itself a pretty difficult battle for people to even change from one device to another device with the SAME operating system. Now imagine the difficulty convincing them to change everything they know about the device in their pocket. The average consumer just isn't that interested in learning a whole new way of doing things when what they already have is fulfilling their daily needs. Add in the app gap, which still exists on Windows 10, and you won't convince people to convert for a more complicated, less familiar way of doing things.

Except that the vast majority of people in the west own a PC or laptop and also use a PC or laptop all day in school or at work. Saying that windows is unfamiliar to people is just weird. In the west there's an average of about 4-6 devices in an average household. We are swimming in a sea of devices.

The only places where people might typically use only a mobile device are third world-ish countries where they can't afford a PC. In india, or Africa, that might be a valid argument. In the west, everyone knows windows.

You could certainly argue that ios or android are unfamiliar to users of the other type of mobile device. Or that the tiny tiny percentage of mac users don't know windows. Or people who are technophobes. Or that virtually no one knows how to use a mac. But windows? In general? Nope. Windows is a cultural staple in the west, more than android is - not only is it used by everyone, it's been around much longer.
 
Last edited:

fatclue_98

Retired Moderator
Apr 1, 2012
9,146
1
38
Visit site
Put this discussion as a news article on any mainstream news outlet such as USA Today and it might register a couple hundred clicks. To say it’ll be a niche device is being overly generous. People know Galaxy, iPhones and their computer at work. Most people don’t even know what an OS is. Oh, it’s a Dell something or other.

It’s great for us technoheads but let’s be real.
 

BajanSaint69

New member
Jun 30, 2017
190
0
0
Visit site
Looking at many of the comments on this thread....

Do you remember when Surface was the butt of a joke? Oh it's got a kickstand!!!!

I suspect that Andromeda may follow a similar path initially.
 

mtf1380

Active member
Nov 30, 2015
1,845
0
36
Visit site
Just some of my observations:

First: Microsoft just overtook Google (Alphabet) for the world’s third most valuable firm in terms of market value (by a mere $10 Billion, but still shows that they are still in the race...for anything)

Second: it appears that 'ALL' OS's are gravitating toward PWA...so they must know something, like it may be the preferred selection for the future of mobile.

Third: it looks like the Big Boys & Gals are looking to play better with one another by offering some kind of standard means to work on each other's OS (probably for the sake of the growth potential of IoT..and the likelihood of billions of dollars in returned product and/or frustrated consumers, if they don't). note: Apple still seems to want to go it alone...as usual.

Fourth: the future is 5G and they all know it (MS 'may' even have the ball at the moment with this regards)

Fifth: Dell is rumored to be introducing a mobile folding device operating on Windows 10 on ARM (powered by a Qualcomm Snapdragon 850 processor), this will be for directed toward the consumer market more than likely, so it shows that W10 as a mobile contender, is STILL viable.

I think things are going to change quickly (OS specific apps, for one, will be as outdated as VHS) in 2019, and MS will definitely be in the hunt. Just my opinion, based on my observations....please be kind and don't criticize me too mush:)
 

a5cent

New member
Nov 3, 2011
6,622
0
0
Visit site
Lastly, this talk of enterprise focus over consumer really needs to stop! The enterprise is consumers! When the enterprise goes on a lunch break, they are consumers! When the enterprise goes home for the day they are consumers! No one wants to carry around two devices that do the same thing! I don't use a Thinkpad at work then carry it home only to say, "oh I can't use that laptop because it is enterprise focused. I better go buy a separate consumer device." This is crazy talk! EVERY. SINGLE. ENTERPRISE. PERSON is a consumer!
The only way you can say this is by ignoring a huge part of our economy. When was the last time you purchased a $300'000 soldering robot, an EUV solution to build integrated circuits or business intelligence software? These are things a consumer will never need. That is to say that the vast majority of products/services clearly target either consumers or corporations.

Personal computers and smartphones are not a typical product, because software is the ultimate configuration tool which can make number crunching hardware do very useful things for very different purposes.

I agree that it doesn't make sense to view smartphones as either corporate or consumer devices. They are both.

The question is whether a foldable and very portable device that runs Win32 software is also something both consumers and corporations would be similarly interested in. I think not. IMHO its quite clear that this device is not for the average Joe consumer. Joe is likely better off sticking to their smartphone.
 

anon(10458357)

New member
May 11, 2018
35
0
0
Visit site
I would be as shocked as if I saw a Unicorn, Bigfoot, or the Loch Ness Monster if MS actually releases Andromeda!

Of course I don't really want this... but heck if MS is getting out of Consumer then just get out, and be done with it! Put us all out of our misery. Hold a press conference and just back out of Consumer officially... instead of keeping us all hoping for what you either can not or will not deliver.

Kill it all off...

* All iOS and Android apps except MS Office (for paid subscriptions only).
* xBox and Microsoft Studios
* Office 365 (Home and Personal Editions)
* Office Home & Student 2016 for PC edition
* OneDrive
* The MS App Store and all Microsoft authored UWP apps on the MS Store
* Skype
* Outlook.com
* Office online
* Bing
* MSN
* And finally Windows 10 Home edition!

Just be done with it already!
 

a5cent

New member
Nov 3, 2011
6,622
0
0
Visit site
but heck if MS is getting out of Consumer then just get out, and be done with it! Put us all out of our misery. Hold a press conference and just back out of Consumer officially... instead of keeping us all hoping for what you either can not or will not deliver.

Kill it all off...

Ehm... What? Why? Is one company not allowed to service both corporate customers AND consumers? MS is not going to build a mobile device that attempts to compete with iOS or Android as a consumer product. That war was lost. That doesn't mean MS must instantly stop developing every other product or service consumers might find useful!
 

nazim elverdi

New member
Sep 11, 2017
4
0
0
Visit site

Drael646464

New member
Apr 2, 2017
2,219
0
0
Visit site
Just to restate this in short format in case someone missed it. It's absolute BS to think that creaseless folding devices such as pictured in that article will be pitched at consumers as early as 2019. That article is wild speculation, and I wouldn't take it seriously. The graphene required for true folding screens is too expensive for consumer devices - heck it's too expensive for enterprise.


If we get any other folding tablets in the near future they will have creases, and they will essentially be "alphas" for a later product, much like the current HoloLens is.
 

Drael646464

New member
Apr 2, 2017
2,219
0
0
Visit site
Just some of my observations:

First: Microsoft just overtook Google (Alphabet) for the world’s third most valuable firm in terms of market value (by a mere $10 Billion, but still shows that they are still in the race...for anything)

Second: it appears that 'ALL' OS's are gravitating toward PWA...so they must know something, like it may be the preferred selection for the future of mobile.

Third: it looks like the Big Boys & Gals are looking to play better with one another by offering some kind of standard means to work on each other's OS (probably for the sake of the growth potential of IoT..and the likelihood of billions of dollars in returned product and/or frustrated consumers, if they don't). note: Apple still seems to want to go it alone...as usual.

Fourth: the future is 5G and they all know it (MS 'may' even have the ball at the moment with this regards)

Fifth: Dell is rumored to be introducing a mobile folding device operating on Windows 10 on ARM (powered by a Qualcomm Snapdragon 850 processor), this will be for directed toward the consumer market more than likely, so it shows that W10 as a mobile contender, is STILL viable.

I think things are going to change quickly (OS specific apps, for one, will be as outdated as VHS) in 2019, and MS will definitely be in the hunt. Just my opinion, based on my observations....please be kind and don't criticize me too mush:)

No I think those are observant observations. The future is most certainly "a sea of devices", a variety of form factors, and includes everything from AR to AI. Anyone cognisant of that will want cross device compatibility and cross hardware scalability. Apple does seem resistant - they still seem to be aiming to be able to do it all themselves. Apple, google, and Microsoft all have hybrid OSes, it's just the first two have them in development still.

I consider it quite likely that other companies will follow this folding route too. Samsung co-developed the graphene OLED tech with MSFT, and co-own the patent. This is not just a partnership for tech, Samsung does not like it's reliance on google, and likely will release a windows foldable at some unknown point as well (if for no other reason that to spite google, and the FF is good for enterprise)
 

taynjack

Member
Dec 14, 2015
57
8
8
Visit site
Except that the vast majority of people in the west own a PC or laptop and also use a PC or laptop all day in school or at work. Saying that windows is unfamiliar to people is just weird. In the west there's an average of about 4-6 devices in an average household. We are swimming in a sea of devices.

The only places where people might typically use only a mobile device are third world-ish countries where they can't afford a PC. In india, or Africa, that might be a valid argument. In the west, everyone knows windows.

You could certainly argue that ios or android are unfamiliar to users of the other type of mobile device. Or that the tiny tiny percentage of mac users don't know windows. Or people who are technophobes. Or that virtually no one knows how to use a mac. But windows? In general? Nope. Windows is a cultural staple in the west, more than android is - not only is it used by everyone, it's been around much longer.

Yes, we are swimming in the old way Windows effects our lives. The new Windows is still being used by the vast majority of users the way they always have. Meaning, the average user doesn't use the Microsoft store, even when they know it exists. In my office, not one single person but me has downloaded an app from the Microsoft app store. Why? Their reply, "Because I can just download what I need from the web. Why do I need an app store?" Or, "oh, I just went to the Spotify website and downloaded the Spotify player." Consumers don't see the computer on their desk translating to the phone in their hand. Every computer in my office still has the start menu set up the way it came. None of them have changed it even after seeing the way I use mine. They still have a taskbar or desktop full of icons. The average user doesn't do live tiles. Even my wife who used windows phone for years still hasn't set up her computer's start screen. She also has never used the windows store on a computer. Android and IOS are the familiar handheld, smartphone, in your pocket OS. People jumping from Android/iOS to Windows on a phone, it is very unfamiliar, and would take a lot of getting used to. I'm not saying one is better than another, they are just different. And different enough they aren't willing to change when android/ios does everything they need it to. From another perspective, there are some iphone users who don't know how to use a Mac. There might be some familiar elements and some familiar programs. Generally casual iphone users don't switch to Macs just because they use iphones. Some might, but there wasn't a mass migration to macOS when the iphone came out. There also isn't a mass migration to Chromebooks even though Android is now the dominant Operating system worldwide. You can expect the same thing when Microsoft releases their next not-a-phone phone device. Microsoft needs to position their next device as the next big thing. Not the next extension of desktop features the average consumers don't use.
 

taynjack

Member
Dec 14, 2015
57
8
8
Visit site
It's really not. If it weren't for enterprise we wouldn't have gotten the personal computer (from mainframes) or the smartphone (from 1980s cellular phones). Enterprise can afford to invest when production costs are high, thus the product has a high cost, but software and features are not refined - because they can use such devices for specialised functions with software and functions developed in house.

Consumers only come to the market, after a product has been fully fleshed out, and manufacturing costs have been brought down. With graphene folding tablets, where it currently takes something like 10,000 USD to produce a single prototype, and cost alone is the only reason such products don't exist - this is extremely relevant. The "proto" version, that is andromeda, also has the feature issue - no OS is currently built to scale all its software and functions between to screen formats (dual screen, or single screen). As such this is FAR more useful to people using it with a specialised use in mind, until the developer side fleshes out (and the OS too).

Enterprise couldn't be more relevant than this particular branch of technology. People who quote this "enterprise are just consumers" line are missing a lot.

Take something like the HoloLens - it's expensive, and has a limited software set. Consumers don't want it yet. People don't want to take it home. But they use it for surgery in medical hospitals and to design building and factory lay outs. Right now.

Most tech products start in enterprise before there's any real value in consumers owning it, let alone spending the high price tags early tech comes with.


For the PC you are correct. This scenario worked for Microsoft in PC's because people didn't have home computers or anything like them. So you were introduced to them at work, saw the potential at home, so you bought one for home. Simple. The application of this logic to Microsoft's next device falls apart because this time something else that is similar already exists, is familiar and fills a similar use case.

This scenario worked somewhat again for pocketable computers starting with Blackberry. Blackberry was an enterprise targeted device with some consumer market. But they neglected, just like Microsoft did and is still doing, to think about what a consumer would use it for after they went home from work. The use case for a pocketable device is very different from a production desktop in the office. Blackberry missed this and we all know what happened to them.

Apple, won that battle because Apple realized that the use case for a pocketable computer would mean these devices would spend more time being used after work hours. Few enterprise people would be constantly on their phones during work hours. That is evident from the fact that the enterprise still uses desktop computers to get the majority of work done. I'm not saying that iphones and androids haven't replaced some work tasks, but they haven't replaced the desktop wholeheartedly. Apple targeted a much wider use case for a pocketable device. The iphone was targeted at the consumer to use it's many functions outside of work. After hours. In the other 72 hours that we aren't working or sleeping. Blackberry started pocketable computers in the enterprise, Apple perfected it by expanding their mindset beyond just productivity and sought the general public with full touch and an app store for the consumer.

The desktop scenario of proliferation started with the iphone, and continued with Android because The majority of consumers didn't have a computer in their pocket before those devices. Only a niche group of tech enthusiasts. The average consumer had to learn a new system because they knew no other pocketable system. The iphone was a consumer facing device! The iphone/androids didn't start in the enterprise, but they were so good at everything else and could do some enterprise tasks the iphone/androids went backwards into the enterprise from the consumer market.

This method of proliferation might work for the Hololens. But they feel like Blackberry. AR will come to consumers eventually, but will it be Microsoft that brings it? Microsoft has stiff competition from Oculus, and others. Microsoft also has baggage. Burned consumers that are wary of them now.

For Microsoft to break into the pocketable device market they have to have a huge differentiator. If it is even remotely like the existing phones, it won't survive. Folding isn't enough because we know Google/Apple are also working on a folding device and their OS is what is familiar in the pocketable computer market. The current known use case for a pocketable device is not business production. Pocketable devices are consumer devices with a little business mixed in. (fitting to the number of hours we spend as a worker and a consumer.) If the device can't target the after hours market user base, meaning, basic apps people already use outside of work, as well as use cases for those who don't use a smart phone for work, like the the stay at home mom, the retired couple, or the teenager working a menial job that doesn't require a folding pocketable productivity device. It has to be desirable to these people as well, and overwhelmingly so as to overcome the current device OS that is already meeting their needs and with which they are already familiar.

The first computers were adopted because there was nothing like them in the mass market. The first smartphones were adopted because there was nothing like them in the mass market. Now people have developed deep roots into those ecosystems, like app purchases for instance. This requires any new player to produce a very compelling reason or a completely new type of device that does things nothing else can that the vast majority of people truly see a need for. (Apple never truly challenged Microsoft in the desktop world. but they made the iphone. Now the situation is flipped in the smartphone world.) They also need a product that other players can't catch up to very quickly. By that you gain mindshare. This is what Microsoft did with the desktop computer. This is what Apple did with the iphone, and Google did with Android. Now Microsoft is the one playing catch up. I'm concerned that the foldable phone that isn't a phone, but still isn't good enough to replace your work desktop (although getting closer for some business cases) Combine that with marketing that just confuses people over what the device is (truly it is nothing more than a more powerful pocketable device the general public calls a smartphone) At this point it certainly won't replace your android/ios phone because those devices have way more available basic apps that are missing on Windows still. Why are these apps missing. Because Microsoft doesn't have a phone, and desktops and phones have different use cases.
 
Last edited:

mtf1380

Active member
Nov 30, 2015
1,845
0
36
Visit site
@taynjack, excellent valid observation...

...MS has gone to great lengths to disassociate themselves from the phone market over the last two years, and during that same time teased that they are interested in designing hardware for a new mobile category (with the advent of 5G). I like using Windows, nothing against other OS's, but I do like the Windows’ format across all devices concept - and their latest willingness to play well with others is an added plus, as far as I'm concerned. I hope the "new" category entails opening the door for an International Organization for Standardization so that all consumer’s OS preferences work on all devices. I'm sick of ‘not’ being able to buy a product because of its inherent operating system's incompatibility with ‘my’ preferred OS (i.e. vehicles UI, HDTV UI, Security devices UI, light switches UI, etc.), I’m sure that the figure is in the mid-to-high thousands of dollars this year alone (and would have been a lot more if I had purchased a vehicle). Case in point, I bought a high-end 4K TV from Sony that has Android TV and I HATE the Android UI, it hasn’t worked for crap since day one (I wouldn’t buy again, that’s $6K Sony won’t get next time), I have to use the Xbox attached to get a UI that works, and that I like and will work well with my AV equipment.

So yes, I look toward to the next big thing that opens more possibilities for all in mobile:)
 
Last edited:

fatclue_98

Retired Moderator
Apr 1, 2012
9,146
1
38
Visit site
The desktop scenario of proliferation started with the iphone, and continued with Android because No one had a computer in their pocket before those devices.
Um, I had Remote Desktop, Network File Sharing, Office Suite with Outlook and printing abilities on Windows Mobile well before iPhones were released. In fact, iPhones had none of these capabilities for the first few iterations.

I'm not disputing that Apple and Google took the football and ran with it while Microsoft watched from the sidelines, but please.
 

VHMP01

New member
Jan 3, 2012
23
0
0
Visit site
I personally don't see a need for any foldable tablet. That is a niche product that seems to fulfill an imaginary need that doesn't exist. I really am skeptical regarding demand for such a device, no matter what OS it runs or which company manufactures it.

That's what they used to say about Phablets! Humongous Galaxies, and then all copied them!
 

Jeffery L

New member
Jan 13, 2018
24
2
3
Visit site
What is different about Andromeda is not that it folds, but that it will be running a desktop OS and will be pocketable. There will be nothing like it on the market. Andromeda stands to replace not just your phone and tablet, but also your desktop. It holds the potential to be the only computing device you need. To me, this is something truly exciting. I've been watching how smartphones have been getting more and more powerful. The day is actually now with the Snapdragon 845 that a pocketable device can run the demands asked by desktop applications. With this day upon us, we have to start asking ourselves if it makes sense to pay for redundant computing power for three form factors (i.e. phone, tablet, and desktop). You may think, no big deal having all these devices. Well lets say you have a family of three. Each has a laptop, tablet, and phone. The laptop cost $800 and lasts four years. The tablet cost $400 and lasts three years. The phone cost $700 and lasts two years. Now think about a durable good like your refrigerator. I think most would argue that your refrigerator is pretty important. Lets assume your refrigerator lasts about 15 years. Lets also say that your refrigerator costs you annually the same rate of capital expenditure as you are spending on computing power. How much would it cost you to buy a new refrigerator? It would cost you $30,750! That is just the cost of redundant hardware. There is also the cost of needing different application software for the different platforms to go with specific form factors. And then the time it takes to configure multiple devices and the cognitive complexity of learning multiple variants of applications and operating systems. The current system we have is not efficient both in time and money. If you owned a Windows 10 Mobile device, and you saw Continuum in action, you saw a glimpse of the future. If you saw the HP Elite X3, you also saw a glimpse of the future. This is where computing is headed given the trends in computing power and miniaturization. Each person will only need one computing device for personal use. The Andromeda is paving this future and Microsoft should be credited for having a vision for a better world of computing.
 

taynjack

Member
Dec 14, 2015
57
8
8
Visit site
@fatclue_98 You are correct. My declaration that no device existed is false. My intent was that wide market adoption of such a device among average consumers did not occur before the iphone. Therefore when the iphone was released targeting the average consumer market, they had no competition in mindshare aside from BlackBerry or maybe Palm among the general population. Few people knew that Microsoft even had a device. A problem that Microsoft still has today.
 

Drael646464

New member
Apr 2, 2017
2,219
0
0
Visit site
Yes, we are swimming in the old way Windows effects our lives. The new Windows is still being used by the vast majority of users the way they always have. Meaning, the average user doesn't use the Microsoft store, even when they know it exists. In my office, not one single person but me has downloaded an app from the Microsoft app store. Why? Their reply, "Because I can just download what I need from the web. Why do I need an app store?" Or, "oh, I just went to the Spotify website and downloaded the Spotify player." Consumers don't see the computer on their desk translating to the phone in their hand. Every computer in my office still has the start menu set up the way it came. None of them have changed it even after seeing the way I use mine. They still have a taskbar or desktop full of icons. The average user doesn't do live tiles. Even my wife who used windows phone for years still hasn't set up her computer's start screen. She also has never used the windows store on a computer. Android and IOS are the familiar handheld, smartphone, in your pocket OS. People jumping from Android/iOS to Windows on a phone, it is very unfamiliar, and would take a lot of getting used to. I'm not saying one is better than another, they are just different. And different enough they aren't willing to change when android/ios does everything they need it to. From another perspective, there are some iphone users who don't know how to use a Mac. There might be some familiar elements and some familiar programs. Generally casual iphone users don't switch to Macs just because they use iphones. Some might, but there wasn't a mass migration to macOS when the iphone came out. There also isn't a mass migration to Chromebooks even though Android is now the dominant Operating system worldwide. You can expect the same thing when Microsoft releases their next not-a-phone phone device. Microsoft needs to position their next device as the next big thing. Not the next extension of desktop features the average consumers don't use.

Yeah, I get what you are saying, but this isn't really unique to any operating system. Older folk tend to be creatures of habit. While certain store apps are mainstream popular, you are right that the store is underutilized.

Re: the live tiles, IDK if that's really important. iOS and Android both directly copy the desktop icon format. In windows you have several ways to do everything.


But the same problem exists on OSX, iOS and Android - when people introduce new features, habitful creatures either complain or ignore their existence.


You of course get people like you and me, who evolve (I use apps over browser every time, and have loads of UWPs on my PC), and then you get new users, who are more experimental and open - and they learn the new way of doing things. Over time, the old way dies, and the new way is the habit everyone is used to.

I don't really agree at all that MSFTs next device has to be 'the next big thing'. Most of the largest changes in mobile computing, such as AR, and folding devices are going to be in the sort of state the early cellphone was - expensive, and not entirely optimised for consumer use. While they most certainly well replace smartphones in their current form entirely, they are nowhere near ready for that.

For a folding phone, for example you need a creaseless display for consumer appeal, and a slim and study design. Graphene tech is at least a decade off being even affordable to enterprise. In the meantime, creases in the screen create serious obstacles to the FF - namely, optimal software uses will be dual screen multi-tasking, or apps with a split UI display. And the later doesn't exist at all as an ecosystem, on any platform.

For a folding screen you also need an adaptive OS - a hybrid OS. Something that scales to the screen size. That also doesn't exist right now, although MSFT is working on it, it's a project of the kind of size that it simply won't be polished and completed, this year, next year, or the year after, no matter how many coders they throw at it, or money.


Andromeda and HoloLens are more like alphas. More like the first cellphones. They are enterprise devices that will be used to lower manufacturing costs, streamline functionality, and work towards the slim FF, high function, polished version that consumers will eventually use.

Consumers expecting some tech revolution in mobile computing will be disappointed. It's not coming any time soon. And absolutely not at all for consumers in the near future. Nor will we get any massive changes in OS format any time soon. Windows core will be something that is "a bit different", and will gradually get more different.

Part of this is of course, exactly because of the resistance to change that you mention. The smartphone took off as quickly as it did, not because it was different, but precisely because it was entirely like a windows desktop. Consumers cope with change better when it's incremental.

But technologically speaking incremental is all we can reasonably expect too. Phones with optical zoom. Depth perception for AR (which nobody will really use, except for kids).

Instead, smart players like apple and msft have their eyes firmly on when it will, and are preparing for it. In about 10+ years time, that's when your "next big thing" will arrive. Probably a bunch of them at once, a fully fleshed out small form AR device "smartglasses", a properly folding creaseless device that slips into anyones pocket as has a robust OS and ecosystem to support its FF.

You see, the smartphone didn't come out of nowhere either. It was a very slow, incremental change that took place over decades. And it wasn't a consumer device to start with either. The next step isn't merely an evolution of the smartphone in terms of it being based entirely off existing technologies - the technologies for the next step have to be advanced in the way they were in the early days of cellphones, or the early days of computers.
 

Members online

Forum statistics

Threads
323,183
Messages
2,243,406
Members
428,037
Latest member
Brilliantick99