Windows Phone 7 doomed to fail?

mullrat#WN

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Windows Phone will not fail because it is based on architecture that is solid. MS has released dev tools that are easy to use. MS has historically been extremely accommodating to devs. The system is closed to a point but open enough to spawn innovation. It is amazing how well it runs with specs that are older.

Honestly, the only way it will fail is being torpedoed by carriers ala palm, and bad marketing ala.. palm i guess.

MS will eventually just steamroll into relevance like they have done since their beginning. Think Windows, Exchange, Office, Xbox, and now WP7. All these products sucked at first but they're gonna put truckloads of money into it and constantly iterate. And they will win in the end.
 

N8ter

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You can look at it that way but I look at it this way. The average consumer probably wont care if his/her phone is dual/quad core as long as the phone is fast, smooth and delivers a great experience.

Didn't MS sign a deal with Qualcomm so whatever their flagship chip is going to be is probably what WP is going to run on. Say if MS doesn't reach quad core status by the end of this year dual core might actually provide them with some sort of advantage over its iOS and Android quadcore counterparts.
How is Dual Core going to provide them with some sort of advantage? iOS runs find on a single core processor, as seen with the iPhone 4 and its A4 processor (which is related to the Hummingbird in 1st Gen Galaxy S devices). Good Android Phones fly on Dual Core devices. Do you somehow forsee some ridiculous performance degradation in Android and iOS moving from Dual to Quad Core? Apple's next iPhone may very well be Quad Core with LTE...

Price is a big advantage. I am going to assume the flagship Android and iOS phones will retail at 199$ if WP flagship product can be sold at 149$ I bet WP is more appealing to the average user. The average user will probably have a mindset of "ehh I dont need quad core etc I am going to go with what works at a lower cost" or "ehh I dont think I want to spend 200$ on a iPhone when I can get a Lumia for 149$" As long as the WP are priced competitively against the Quad core super phones WP will do great!
You're looking at it wrong.

High end WP7 devices retail at $200 on contract - promotions notwithstanding. That's the same price as a 16 GB iPhone 4S and roughly the same as a Galaxy S II, which is the best selling Android phone on every carrier that carries it. Low end phones are more Analogous to Last-Gen Android devices (like the G2X, Sensation) and the iPhone 4, which are either [on the brink of] EOL or at $99. The iPhone 3GS runs iOS5 for $0.01 on contract.

AT&T still has some 16 and 32GB iPhone 4 devices left, available for $149/249 on contract.

You don't buy a phone simply because it costs $50 cheaper. You consider all the variables. Hardware, Camera Quality, Music/Video Store, Platform it runs, App Store, etc. Even at $50 cheaper, the Lumia is an extremely hard sell vs the iPhone. Apple simply has a much better ecosystem and the device is built in a way that warrants the price. iPhones can also sell very high a year after purchase, used... The same cannot be said for any Windows Phone.

Low end phones. If Android and iOS keep going up the charts in hardware the low-end market will slowly open up to MS. If WP can provide that awesome low-end experience they will eat up alot of marketshare. Most likely the iPhone 4 will struggle running iPhone 5 apps and samething goes for low-end Androids.
You're wrong. Android high end devices always drop down to mid-range pricing when they are being phased out (upgrades have been released), and Android manufacturers release a ton of mid-range devices.

Additionally, Apple always drops down the earlier generation iPhones to Mid-Range pricing when they release a new model. That market is just as crowded as the high end due to both this and the fact that Android manufacturers release a ton of high end devices. That means they are always phasing out previous high end models and the best way to get rid of inventory is to drop their prices down.

The way that WP is optimized low end handsets user experience is the same as its high end counterparts and I can see that attracting alot of people.
That's both a positive and a negative. It means that someone with a Gen 1 device has little incentive to upgrade or even recommend the newer devices - which cost as much as any other device - because there is little benefit in doing so.

It also means WP7 devices look cheap compared to high end iOS and Android devices. Perception matters.

So going quadcore might be awesome for power hungry users but dont count out lower spec dual cores and single cores to still compete. As of right now no phones beat the Samsung Focus Flash and Lumia 710 as budget phones.

Not every iOS and Android device is Dual Core, and not every Android and iOS device will be quad core. And that's a bold statement, especially when you can get much better Android, iOS, or even WP7 devices (at least in terms of Camera, Screen, or Storage Capacity) and get a lot more value out of your data plan and a contract term.

The reason why a lot of people ignore low end devices is because they are bad value for people who purchase phones on contracts. If you're gonna go that route, you're better off just buying the phone cheap off contract and just going pre-paid. In that case, you will pay more than you would for an on-contract 32 (and maybe even 64) GB iPhone 4S and a contract Galaxy S II, Amaze 4G, or similar device.

It does not help that relatively decent devices like the Atrix 4G are practically free on contract, either, on some carriers. But that goes back to my statement about previous high end models obtaining mid-range pricing, with twice the specs of those low end WP7 devices...

On top of that, you also have to convince users to get WP7 in lieu of all of their friends using other devices with services locked to that platform (GTalk + Video Chat, FaceTime, iMessage, BBM) or Apps which are not yet available on WP7. It's really hard to sell, especially to the younger crowd - which [here] seem to have quite a bit of influence on what the older crowd considers because now parents are looking to their kids for advice and input on many things technological.
 

KingCrimson

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It's really hard to sell, especially to the younger crowd - which [here] seem to have quite a bit of influence on what the older crowd considers because now parents are looking to their kids for advice and input on many things technological.

Yup and their answer will be either iPhone 4S or Galaxy SII. No kid would want to be caught dead in school with a Windows Phone right now.
 

QuadForce

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I think with the introduction of windows 8 windows phone has a great opportunity to grow. I have a feeling big things are on the way.

Sent from my mwp6985 using Board Express
 

Reflexx

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Perception does matter.

A lot of WP's short term success may hinge on the Nokia advertising push.

In the long term, even without short term success, I believe that WP is almost destined to be a strong player. As was stated above by mullrat, MS has a pattern of introducing a product and consistently improving it until it becomes a big player.

I see WP like the original XBOX. And I would imagine that many of the people who believe that WP is doomed to fail are the same type that made those predictions about the XBOX.
 

N8ter

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Can't really speak for long-term, and seriously cannot speak about Windows 8/Apollo becuase that's simply too far out. That's after another iPhone redesign and at least 1 major Android OS update and 20 ICS devices.

And WP7 is nothing like the Original XBox. Consoles are just too different a market. Going from iOS to WP7 can potentially negate hundreds of dollars in purchases becuase not many consumers carry around two smartphones with two active SIMs like me (unless for work, and they aren't blowing cash on apps and accessories for a work phone, you know). When they buy a new phone, the old one is a backup just in case the new one breaks/needs to be replaced. Outside of that, it sits in a box collecting dust.

That's not to mention Accessories (Docks, Expensive Stereo Systems with iDevice Docks integrated, Sports and Health Monitoring Equipment, Apple TVs, Macs to go along with their shiny iDevices, iPads, WiFi Speaker Systems controllable with the iPhones... Friend of mine has a WiFi thermostat he controls with his iPhone now, etc.), Apps, Games, and simply not wanting to "learn to use another phone" after having used another OS for potentially years...

That's assuming they don't sell it.

With consoles many people still kept and played the older console, and the functionality of that console was not tied to a SIM card (or whatever the CDMA equivalent is). It was just another smartphone.

Microsoft cannot buy their way into the smartphone market the way they did into the console market, and they did not have "first go" advantage over the competition the way they did with the XBox 360 (releasing it almost a year before the PS3 and having Sony shoot themselves in the head with pricing - despite the PS3 being the more capable console [web browser, flash, USB OTG, BluRay, Specs, etc.]). This market and this situation is completely different. It's not even comparable.

If Sony had released the PS3 in the same timeframe with comparable pricing, they could have killed Microsoft especially with the types of hardware failures plaguing XB360 systems after release. They should thank Sony for that. That also gave the XB360 a leg up with developers (notwithstanding the PS3 is a ***** to develop for, especially if you want top tier games like Uncharted).
 

Reflexx

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WP and XBOX don't have to be the same. The point is that MS will continue to improve the platform and will bleed money in the process if that's what it takes to establish itself.

But a big similarity is the treatment of developers and the focus on making development faster and cheaper. These things matter.

I'm not predicting MS dominating the way they are in consoles now. But they will be a major player in mobile with WP. Even a respectable 3rd place with 20% market share in 3yrs would be considered by most as a huge success.
 

mattpga

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I dont think it will fail, but they seriously need to get a much greater selection of handsets out there. In the UK you are lucky if the carrier has 2 to choose from, usually less, when you have probably at least 10 androids.
 

Pronk

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Yup and their answer will be either iPhone 4S or Galaxy SII. No kid would want to be caught dead in school with a Windows Phone right now.

Rubbish. Give the average kid a Nokia 800 and he or she would be hugely chuffed. Most parents I know wouldn't splash for an S2 or a 4S for a kid to take to school anyway and so they end up with a feature phone like a Samsung Bada, a cheap-arse Blackberry, or a bargain basement android. Or if they're VERY lucky, a 3GS or a second-hand nicer model.

The Lumia 710 and the ZTE Tania have a great chance of grabbing some of this low-end market because they're bang up to date and work brilliantly on the limited hardware, and have social networking oozing out of every port.

They might want a 4S or an SII but that's because kids aren't realistic and just want the most expensive/newest, but give them the choice between what they'd ACTUALLY get and what they could have with WP that's so much better for the money, and see what they go for. I think WP has a great chance to expand in this market, and build some customer loyalty too.
 

aubreyq

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Can't really speak for long-term, and seriously cannot speak about Windows 8/Apollo becuase that's simply too far out. That's after another iPhone redesign and at least 1 major Android OS update and 20 ICS devices.
Windows 8 and Apollo are not as far out as you think they are. If anything they'll come out at the same time Apple announces the iPhone 5. Maybe a little before ;)

As for Android, well, they can keep cranking their OSs; they still have a fragmented mess to deal with.
 

Premium1

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Rubbish. Give the average kid a Nokia 800 and he or she would be hugely chuffed. Most parents I know wouldn't splash for an S2 or a 4S for a kid to take to school anyway and so they end up with a feature phone like a Samsung Bada, a cheap-arse Blackberry, or a bargain basement android. Or if they're VERY lucky, a 3GS or a second-hand nicer model.


They might want a 4S or an SII but that's because kids aren't realistic and just want the most expensive/newest, but give them the choice between what they'd ACTUALLY get and what they could have with WP that's so much better for the money, and see what they go for. I think WP has a great chance to expand in this market, and build some customer loyalty too.

Most of the times kids don't want the "newest and most expensive, if that was the case the 3gs would not be selling so well. With the very little that people know of wp7, give a kid a choice between any wp and an iphone and 99% of the time they will choose the iphone off of brand recognition alone. Like it or not that is how it is and until wp can get a more solid foothold and get people to know about wp7 sales are not going to really take off like with the iphone and android.
 

selfcreation

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Most of the times kids don't want the "newest and most expensive,

actually they do ... man i saw kids int he Metro/Buss with an Iphone 4S or the enwess BB or Android phone the DAY it comes out ( first thing that comes to mind is... arg an other kid with rich parents )

so many kids call every day,,

and the convo goes a little like this:


kid - hmmm hello sir... im , hmmm , calling to get info on the Iphone 4s.

Me - No problem Son ,we are currently selling it at 159`95 on 36month term with a MINIMUM 50$ a month plan....

kid- .. Oh.... *hear the parents in the back telling him NO WAY )

kid - how much is the GS2 *

me- 100$ *hear the parents in the back telling him NO WAY )

kid- how much or the Iphone 4.

me- its at 0$ right now ( parents in the back.. ok fine but you better be careful with it )

( or ill suggests one of our FREE android phones with NO data ( 25$ a month plan ) now dont ask why android sells more.. hehe )


this happens every day!! lol ... sorta makes me laugh to... kids are so cute.. HAHA ( mind you im not that old ether :p )
 

Reflexx

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redraider133's posts make me laugh sometimes. Mainly because I know that he (I'm assuming "he") would like to see Windows Phone improve and grow. It's not that he posts out of hate. But the constant negativity is a little funny. And not funny in an evil or bad way. Just funny in a "that's why I like reading this site" kind of way.
 

Premium1

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redraider133's posts make me laugh sometimes. Mainly because I know that he (I'm assuming "he") would like to see Windows Phone improve and grow. It's not that he posts out of hate. But the constant negativity is a little funny. And not funny in an evil or bad way. Just funny in a "that's why I like reading this site" kind of way.

I guess being honest is "negative" to you. I want every os to succeed. I like tech and have used pretty much every os. The more choices the more possible phones and more innovation.
 
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Reflexx

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I guess being honest is "negative" to you. I want every os to succeed. I like tech and have used pretty much every os.he more choices the more possible phones and more innovation.

In this case, yes, it's negative.

Don't get defensive.

You have every right to give a negative opinion. You honestly believe that it's a good OS with a lot of potential, but it's going down a negative path at the moment. And you believe a different path focused more on higher-end hardware would be more positive.

It is what it is. It's not a knock on you. I just said I LIKE reading it because it shows the diversity of opinions of people that still see the OS in general in a positive light.

I happen to disagree with you. But if everyone agreed here, there would be no discussion at all. And all threads would be about 4 posts long.
 

jfa1

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The future is, at the present, unknown. It is up to the WP enthusiasts to make sure that it does not fail. If it is meant to fail it will do so despite our efforts! I believe this as a Presbyterian who believes in predestination!
 

Pronk

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Most of the times kids don't want the "newest and most expensive, if that was the case the 3gs would not be selling so well. With the very little that people know of wp7, give a kid a choice between any wp and an iphone and 99% of the time they will choose the iphone off of brand recognition alone. Like it or not that is how it is and until wp can get a more solid foothold and get people to know about wp7 sales are not going to really take off like with the iphone and android.

You appear to have confused "what kids want" with "what kids get". I assume kids like jeans and t-shirts, and yet school uniforms sell really well. By your logic, that would mean kids really want school uniforms.

Give a kid a choice between a WP7 phone and an iPhone and yeah, they may well choose the iPhone. Give them a choice between a feature phone with a resistive screen and a cruddy facebook app or a ZTE Tania and then see what they go for.
 

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