03-07-2012 07:48 PM
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  1. N8ter's Avatar
    In my opinion, WP success isn't a matter if "if", but "when."

    So to me, even if things are slow for the next year or two, I'll still be happy and optimistic.

    I remember feeling the same way about the XBOX. People were declaring it dead from before it's launch all the way until the 360 came out. And some people even declared the 360 dead for its first 2 years.

    WP will grow. So I feel safe investing in this ecosystem. And it will be other people who will be upset that they invested so much into iPhone and/or Android when the pull of WP becomes so great that they make the switch.
    People saying that about the XBox said the same thing about the iPhone. They always say that when a company goes into a market that is deemed to be foreign for them. People had a different view of Microsoft IRT console gaming by the time the 360 rolled around.

    The 360 was a success by default by virtue of Sony (and Nintendo) being almost a year behind Microsoft in releasing the PS3. For example, in the US the 360 was available almost a full year ahead of the Playstation 3.

    For the 360 to fail, Microsoft would have had to kill it themselves. It was impossible with that big of a lead. It is very hard to catch up in the console market when you miss a launch like that.

    * Phones are different, especially when it's a system used by various manufacturers. Just cause HTC released a crappy phone doesn't mean Samsung won't release an Awesome phone using the same base OS (as has happened quite a few times). You simply avoid the bad apples. Apple and WebOS were the only exceptions, and Blackberry to a lesser extent but RIM tends to OverSKU their product portfolio anyways to yes much lesser extent.

    In addition to Microsoft releasing the 360 almost a year ahead of the PS3, the PS3 launched very near the Wii which is a cheap console - and they launched with outrageous prices.

    1. So... Tons of people had already invested in the 360 already by then (console, Games, services, etc.)

    3. The PS3 was ridiculously expensive, and launched late (and hence the 360 was already building a healthy title library).

    3. The PS3 launched close to the Wii, at a ridiculous price range (reviewers almost unilaterally laughed at Sony for that) which was cheap by comparison and siphoned the low end console gamer market from under them.

    The RROD issue was real, but it only slowed 360 growth. For a whole year Microsoft had little to no competition in the high end console market. It was impossible for the 360 to fail, literally. Anyone even predicting such a thing had no clue how the console market works.
    02-25-2012 07:45 AM
  2. N8ter's Avatar
    It would be a flawed strategy for Microsoft to deploy capital with the intent of converting entrenched users that are well invested in their current ecosystem. In my opinion, the correct strategy is to go after the hundreds of millions of people around the world that have yet to buy a smartphone but will in the near future. If Microsoft can get a higher proportion of those people than Android and iPhone, they will begin to reduce the lead and establish a respectable market share. Remember there are more people in the world without a smartphone than with one. Clearly, Microsoft will have to put out a product that will induce people to choose Windows Phone over Android and iPhone. I think they are making a compelling case for that. Only time will tell.

    Also, I think we can distill some learnings from the console market. To say Microsoft's outcome there cannot be repeated is synonymous with saying Google and Apple are infallible and will never make a bad business decision. No one thought Sony would lose their number one slot until it happened. No one thought Apple would have to make a major mea culpa on labor practices until they did, and that changes how people feel. It does not feel the same to whip out your fancy Apple gadget to feel like king of the hill only to have someone ask "Is that one of the ones made by a 12 year old working a 14 hour shift?". Kind of takes some of the shine off. No one thought Google would have to make a major mea culpa on hacking privacy settings until they did, and that changes how people feel. Kind of makes you pause on hitting that search button when you have to consider that Google is recording every keystroke and destination point. All I am saying is anything is possible in business and it would be unwise to count out a company that has been as successful as Microsoft has been that is also sitting on billions in cash. I know Apple and Google also have billions. Tim Cook isn't taking the folks in Redmond for granted.
    A lot of those people in developing Nations don't have much disposable income. That's why they like Blackberries. They are really cheap devices, really cheap on data as well. They don't care that there are hardly any apps in the app store. They don't care that they don't have a Music/Video service to compete with Apple/Microsoft.

    They sure aren't going to spend enough in the ecosystem to even consider themselves locked in, and WP7 doesn't have the stickiness that Blackberry has with i.e. BBM. It will be very hard to compete with RIM in these markets. I think people are really taking them for granted by virtue of US marketshare numbers. There are markets where RIM has overwhelmingly top marketshare standings by virtue of their NOC infrastructure and BBM.

    And then they still have to compete with low cost Android devices backed by Google Services which are typically held in higher regard than Microsoft's in some areas (like Mapping, for example) overseas.

    Microsoft should be stronger in the Tablet market where they will be better able to leverage their Windows muscle. I don't really think Apple is really worried about them in the PMP/Smartphone market, TBH. They are more worried about their iPad dominance as far as MS is concerned.

    Windows on ARM and Microsoft Office is going to be a formiddable combination. That's something I'm actually excited about.
    02-25-2012 07:51 AM
  3. CHIP72's Avatar
    Jumping ship cause I like high quality paid apps and this platform isn't worth deep investment in the ecosystem. Already got all the free albums I need. I canceled my Zune pass as well. The only thing keeping me fro. Leaving tight now is the chance of the iPhone 5 having a larger screen. Buy i can't wait much longer. Switching from the Vibrant to this has really made me a less efficient communicator.

    At the moment win phone feels like an open beta for the woa ecosystem.
    N8ter - why don't you just go on eBay and try to buy an iPhone 3GS, 4, or 4S off-contract and unlock the SIM card? That should keep you happy until the iPhone 5 comes out in the October 2012 time frame. As a frame of reference, I literally bought an iPhone 4 on Verizon for $360 new in unsealed box earlier this week. If you aren't as picky about buying new as I am, I'm sure you could get a better deal on a lightly-used iPhone 4.
    02-25-2012 07:59 AM
  4. CHIP72's Avatar
    People saying that about the XBox said the same thing about the iPhone. They always say that when a company goes into a market that is deemed to be foreign for them. People had a different view of Microsoft IRT console gaming by the time the 360 rolled around.

    The 360 was a success by default by virtue of Sony (and Nintendo) being almost a year behind Microsoft in releasing the PS3. For example, in the US the 360 was available almost a full year ahead of the Playstation 3.

    For the 360 to fail, Microsoft would have had to kill it themselves. It was impossible with that big of a lead. It is very hard to catch up in the console market when you miss a launch like that.

    * Phones are different, especially when it's a system used by various manufacturers. Just cause HTC released a crappy phone doesn't mean Samsung won't release an Awesome phone using the same base OS (as has happened quite a few times). You simply avoid the bad apples. Apple and WebOS were the only exceptions, and Blackberry to a lesser extent but RIM tends to OverSKU their product portfolio anyways to yes much lesser extent.

    In addition to Microsoft releasing the 360 almost a year ahead of the PS3, the PS3 launched very near the Wii which is a cheap console - and they launched with outrageous prices.

    1. So... Tons of people had already invested in the 360 already by then (console, Games, services, etc.)

    3. The PS3 was ridiculously expensive, and launched late (and hence the 360 was already building a healthy title library).

    3. The PS3 launched close to the Wii, at a ridiculous price range (reviewers almost unilaterally laughed at Sony for that) which was cheap by comparison and siphoned the low end console gamer market from under them.

    The RROD issue was real, but it only slowed 360 growth. For a whole year Microsoft had little to no competition in the high end console market. It was impossible for the 360 to fail, literally. Anyone even predicting such a thing had no clue how the console market works.
    A few comments:

    1) IMO Sony's Playstation 3 launch wasn't hampered by the near-simultaneous launch of the Nintendo Wii, and the Wii's low cost wasn't the reason why it became more popular than the PS3 (and XBox 360 in the 2007-2009 time frame). The Wii became popular because of the motion controls, which drew in casual gamers. The Gamecube was cheaper than both the Playstation 2 and XBox in the previous generation but still was crushed by the PS2 sales-wise (and even outsold by the XBox in the U.S.).

    2) I agree that the PS3's late launch hurt its sales. In video game console history, late-launching consoles almost always do not "win" their generation. The only exceptions to this are the Super Nintendo back in the 16-bit era (and that was a "sort-of" win for Nintendo - Sega had greater market share with the Genesis at the peak of the era in 1993-1994 and Nintendo went from having 90+% market share in the 8-bit era to around 50% market share in the 16-bit era) and the Wii in the current era (which had to do with its motion controls).

    3) The XBox 360 was a success because it was a solid product, not because it was "a success by default". It was also a success because 1) the original XBox generally impressed people and captured a decent number of hardcore gamers; the positive opinions many people had of the XBox helped Microsoft build on that success with the XBox 360, and 2) Microsoft purposely launched the XBox 360 early (and discontinued the original XBox) so that it could boost its adoption rate. Launching early usually helps a video game console manufacturer but that's not always the case (see Sega Saturn, 1995).

    4) I agree that the mobile computer OS market is functionally different than the video game console market. (Interestingly, there is one fairly high profile example of a video game OS creator following a paradigm similar to what we have with smartphones now - the 3DO back in the mid-1990s had a similar paradigm where the OS was purchased for use by hardware manufacturers. Both Panasonic and Goldstar (now known as LG) manufactured 3DO consoles. However, the 3DO bombed because the hardware cost was way too high for its time, and that hardware cost was high in large part because in the video game industry companies tend to make limited money on the hardware but lots of money on the software; however Panasonic and Goldstar weren't companies that created many video games.) Having said the above, I'm not sure the mobile computer OS market will be a carbon copy of the desktop/laptop computer OS market either, where an OS can now serve a user for nearly a decade and the next iteration of the OS builds upon the previous OS (i.e. backward compatibility). It is possible that Apple and/or Google (and all other mobile OS makers) will need to radically replace their mobile OS in a few years if they become bloated with backwards compatibility issues. Even if a radical replacement isn't needed, it is possible that items downloaded/purchased from their app stores now will at some point in the future not be compatible with later iterations of their operating system, which will require users to download/purchase similar apps again.

    5) I personally think the whole "locked into an ecosystem" concern is overblown. How many times have we seen people, to use an example, own a Microsoft OS computer, use an Apple MP3 player (or smartphone), and browse the internet on their computer using a Google or Mozilla browser? This kind of thing happens all the time. In addition, how much money do people really spend for apps on their smartphones? Personally I'm someone who views purchasing apps when I can get free apps or free access via some other device as a waste of money, so I think I've purchased one app total (for Android OS) between all my different mobile OS devices, paying $5. (I'll add to that in the near future due to a $25 Windows Phone gift/rebate card and a $15 iTunes gift card, but even those expenditures won't be on my dime.) Even if people do purchase apps, I'd guess they are spending a fairly small amount of money total for those apps (say, less than $100 or even less than $50), an amount that is considerably less than what many people spend/have spent to buy new video games for a new, more powerful console. The much bigger "locked into an ecosystem" issues as I see it are 1) most people are afraid to learn a new mobile OS and how it works and 2) whether developers support a particular ecosystem (i.e. develop apps for it). With the former factor, the simpler a mobile OS is to use, the less that issue comes into play.
    Last edited by CHIP72; 02-25-2012 at 08:52 AM.
    02-25-2012 08:47 AM
  5. Reflexx's Avatar
    People saying that about the XBox said the same thing about the iPhone. They always say that when a company goes into a market that is deemed to be foreign for them. People had a different view of Microsoft IRT console gaming by the time the 360 rolled around.

    The 360 was a success by default by virtue of Sony (and Nintendo) being almost a year behind Microsoft in releasing the PS3. For example, in the US the 360 was available almost a full year ahead of the Playstation 3.

    For the 360 to fail, Microsoft would have had to kill it themselves. It was impossible with that big of a lead. It is very hard to catch up in the console market when you miss a launch like that.

    * Phones are different, especially when it's a system used by various manufacturers. Just cause HTC released a crappy phone doesn't mean Samsung won't release an Awesome phone using the same base OS (as has happened quite a few times). You simply avoid the bad apples. Apple and WebOS were the only exceptions, and Blackberry to a lesser extent but RIM tends to OverSKU their product portfolio anyways to yes much lesser extent.

    In addition to Microsoft releasing the 360 almost a year ahead of the PS3, the PS3 launched very near the Wii which is a cheap console - and they launched with outrageous prices.

    1. So... Tons of people had already invested in the 360 already by then (console, Games, services, etc.)

    3. The PS3 was ridiculously expensive, and launched late (and hence the 360 was already building a healthy title library).

    3. The PS3 launched close to the Wii, at a ridiculous price range (reviewers almost unilaterally laughed at Sony for that) which was cheap by comparison and siphoned the low end console gamer market from under them.

    The RROD issue was real, but it only slowed 360 growth. For a whole year Microsoft had little to no competition in the high end console market. It was impossible for the 360 to fail, literally. Anyone even predicting such a thing had no clue how the console market works.
    All that is easy to say in hindsight. But the fact is that many were predicting the XBOX's demise until his a few years ago. The fact is that MS has WP as a major piece in their long term strategy, and they're prepared to spend $ on it for a good long while.

    MS is targeting soon-to-be smartphone users and new smartphone users. People that haven't invested a great deal into an ecosystem yet. Or have invested very little. That is a large portion of the phone buying public.

    Another thing to keep in mind is how fast the cycles go with phones. People typically keep their smartphones for 2 yrs. Even in just the past 2 yrs we've seen 20% of the current smarphone base move from Android to Apple. That's a huge shift that negates the theory that people are so invested that they won't switch.

    And like with Xbox, MS is targeting developers by giving them the easiest and most efficient path for creating apps from start to finish. It took time for this to work with Xbox, and it will with WP. But it will work.

    Feel free to underestimate MS here. But I'm just about positive you'll be proven wrong in another 2 or 3 yrs.
    02-25-2012 10:30 AM
  6. theefman's Avatar
    Jump ship to what, exactly? A grid of icons or a laggy, copycat Os that is increasingly being targeted by malware writers? WP7 is not perfect and is being epically mismanaged by Microsoft but still nothing out there compares. Wouldn't leave if you paid me.
    02-25-2012 10:43 AM
  7. Neibl's Avatar
    This ship is not sinking, microsfot has enough capital to lose some on the growth period, which is still in progress. It is not that important for them to be the best phone maker, but to instead be in the conversation of the top 3 or 4. They are making an ecosystem, not just a phone market. It is going to be a big advantage to have all parts of an ecosystem running on the same OS (windows 8).
    02-25-2012 10:51 AM
  8. ShadL's Avatar
    Personally, I love being different, and the fact that I have a Windows Phone makes me immediately different from anyone else with a smart phone. Windows Phone is eye catching, unique and an incredible experience. Anyone else would agree, I know many people who have switched from an iPhone to WP7, that's a good thing.
    iOS will always be boring, and it won't be long before people realise that.
    You can open an app, use it, press the home button and what? More apps?
    **** no. With Windows Phone, it's a lot more than that.;)
    02-26-2012 08:06 AM
  9. freestaterocker's Avatar
    Dude, nobody can take you seriously when you can't even acknowledge a single flaw with WP or MS.
    Except that all the things he said in this post are true.
    02-26-2012 09:03 AM
  10. darthhen's Avatar
    Personally, I love being different, and the fact that I have a Windows Phone makes me immediately different from anyone else with a smart phone. Windows Phone is eye catching, unique and an incredible experience. Anyone else would agree, I know many people who have switched from an iPhone to WP7, that's a good thing.
    iOS will always be boring, and it won't be long before people realise that.
    You can open an app, use it, press the home button and what? More apps?
    **** no. With Windows Phone, it's a lot more than that.;)
    I switched from Vibrant to Lumia 710.

    Personally, I just wanted to experience a different platform. and iOS wasn't on my list. I went to a Lumia 710 knowing that I will not be able to do all the same things that I've been doing on Vibrant, but that's OK!! I am not resistant to change. :P
    02-26-2012 10:23 AM
  11. jim_h's Avatar
    Remember a time when things looked dark for Apple, too, because they had a tiny sliver of the market, and Microsoft owned the PC world...
    02-26-2012 10:55 AM
  12. paulm187's Avatar
    I love it when I with my friends and we put our phones down on the coffee table, all the iPhones look like clones but my Windows Phone is alive and jumps like a puppy with live tiles. It never ceases to grab attention!
    02-26-2012 12:52 PM
  13. joemd60's Avatar
    I am not a fair weather Windows fan. They will be prying my Terrific Trophy from my cold dead hand when the ship sinks! :D
    02-26-2012 02:37 PM
  14. mattpga's Avatar
    well i have my frustrations with WP7, lack of apps that are available on Android and iOS, updates not happening and a few others, but i don't see a better option out there. No OS is perfect.

    Now that Nokia are advertising hard and also we are starting to see more variety, and a few more affordable handsets reaching the market, i hope WP7 will start to get some traction, which will hopefully bring more top apps and less carrier indifference.

    I'll carry on the ride for now.
    02-27-2012 10:35 AM
  15. doublebullout's Avatar
    I swapped my SIM over the weekend and am using my Quantum as my weekday phone again. (I always have my iPad with me at work in case I need something that WP7 can't do.) WP is a nicer phone OS in a lot of significant ways.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    02-27-2012 10:57 AM
  16. paulm187's Avatar
    I will carry on and I don't think this boat will sink, just too much riding on it for MS. The only thing that would sink it is if MS itself goes dowm. If such a thing happens I will rather droid than an ifan.
    02-27-2012 11:07 AM
  17. bear_lx's Avatar
    great stuff in here! didnt think this post would bring in so much insite! and actually after reading these replies, i am feeling rather optimistic now! it is good to hear positive reinforcement from time to time, and also to know that other people feel the same way. i love the platfrom, and zune is my biggest "ball and chain" keeping me tied to windows phones. i couldnt live without it! my phone is also my mp3 player, which is why i will never own another android. cant even get my genres correct!

    none the less, i hope only the best for windows phones, its just at times... all the negative hype brings me down. and i wish we would see more app developement from bigger name devs, like zynga... i am still dumbfounded that some of the big app names arent here yet!

    now i need to convince verizon and other carriers to be more like tmobile! they are the only ones really advertising windows phones! heck even att, who pretends to be a flagship carrier for windows phones, by carrying the largest selection of their devices, doesnt advertise them at all!!! there website doesnt promote a single windows phone...

    hopefully, MWC 2012 highlights some big updates and devices coming soo as well!!!
    02-27-2012 11:20 AM
  18. Skycop's Avatar
    Someone would really have to outpace windows for me to switch anytime soon. As far as wp being a sinking ship I disagree. I thinks it's more like a slow moving ship that's about to pick up some serious speed, just not as soon as most of us fanboys like lol.
    02-27-2012 01:57 PM
  19. Winterfang's Avatar
    I am not a fair weather Windows fan. They will be prying my Terrific Trophy from my cold dead hand when the ship sinks! :D
    Microsoft should give 5000$ to Trophy owners. That's just love right there. I can't imagine myself suffering for Trophy ownership.
    02-27-2012 02:18 PM
  20. bilzkh's Avatar
    Looks like Nokia Lumia phones might end up getting proper enterprise support through Good Technology soon (as in April/May). That will probably help change WP market prospects at least a little given that our OS already has Office Mobile, Exchange/Office 365, SharePoint all native, and of course SkyDrive & Lync apps on top.

    I'm sure with the enterprise solution we'll see the black Nokia Lumia 800s and 900s (or even penta-band 710s) attract the attention from many professionals. This is a subtle yet potentially very lucrative push by Nokia, it can make a difference especially when Windows 8 tablets start rolling in and Apollo launches.

    Also, to be honest, I don't think the app situation is even that bad. I looked at a bunch of "top iPhone app" lists over the past 2-years, it doesn't really seem as if WP is behind enough to give a regular user pain. The current crop of apps include:

    Facebook
    Netflix,
    WhatsApp,
    IM+,
    Shazam,
    Amazon Kindle,
    Vevo,
    FourSquare,
    Flixster,
    Twitter
    Vimeo
    Daily Motion
    Fox News
    RunKeeper
    EBay
    Dictionary.com

    Some very good 3rd party alternatives like

    YouTube Pro,
    Carbon,
    4th & Mayor,
    BBC News Mobile.

    Not a bad gaming portfolio either:

    Angry Birds (sadly without additions)
    Plants vs. Zombies
    Fruit Ninja
    Parachute Panic
    Doodle Jump
    +
    The Harvest
    Tentacles
    Kinectimals

    Can't forget the Nokia goodies either (though limited in availability):

    Drive
    Maps
    TuneIn Radio
    CNN
    ESPN
    WRC Live

    ...and the crop coming soon:

    Nokia Transport
    Nokia Reading
    Nokia exclusive EA titles
    Skype
    Photosynth

    Just to add, the ones I really like in addition to the above:

    FlashVideo for WP7 (you can play PutLocker, VideoBB, Videozer, etc links on your phone)
    Nextgen Reader
    My Encyclopedia
    IN+ Networking (for LinkedIn)
    Armed
    Bouncy Mouse
    Blue Tomato
    Word Arena

    Our app situation isn't bad, and it's borderline good IMO, to say the least...of course serious improvements are needed, especially with Angry Birds.

    The only people I can see upset at the lack of a couple very specific apps are those who are just too tied into their eco-systems, it's like telling a WP user who absolutely adores their Live Tiles to go and adopt iOS as it is now. Heck they won't even pick up Tango as their sole phone.
    Last edited by bilzkh; 02-27-2012 at 03:24 PM.
    HeyCori likes this.
    02-27-2012 02:59 PM
  21. bear_lx's Avatar
    Microsoft should give 5000$ to Trophy owners. That's just love right there. I can't imagine myself suffering for Trophy ownership.
    i thought the same thing until i got one winterfang... the trophy is not a sub par phone, it actually is verry nice! it is comparible to any other windows phones with the exception of the brand new ones. i would pick this over, hd7-focus-surround-and arrive...
    02-27-2012 04:26 PM
  22. JPDVM2014's Avatar
    I'll be here till the end, just like webOS. The only difference is that Microsoft has a lot more money to throw behind it than Palm did with webOS, and once Windows 8 hits I think it will increase mindshare which *should* increase marketshare.
    speedtouch likes this.
    02-28-2012 03:20 PM
  23. Big Supes's Avatar
    Strange thread...

    02-28-2012 03:22 PM
  24. bear_lx's Avatar
    Strange thread...

    lol
    02-29-2012 09:03 AM
  25. Big Supes's Avatar
    No offence intended, Dizzymaker. I guess we all see things very differently, but having been with WP since Nodo was released, I can feel the platform starting to take off now; which is the opposite to the tone of the thread.

    :)
    02-29-2012 10:15 AM
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