WP Endgame?

[snowmutt]

WARNING: SNOWMUTT IS ABOUT TO RAMBLE. I APOLIGIZE AHEAD OF TIME.

This is a very important thread, (Thanks, depatter!!!) because it goes way deeper than Windows Phones and looks at the landscape that is upcoming. In the world that Microsoft thrived in, corporate and large buisness focusesed on the internet as a way to cut cost and streamline production, and computers as a way to increase productivity. The average household saw the internet as a new way to get information, manage money, send emails, and that was about it. Game councils played games, MP3's and iPods played music, and everything was organized into neat little electronic segments.

But in this world, that isn't good enough. The advent of the cloud, the driving force of Apple's success, and yes even the XBOX have changed all that (remember, the XBOX cut into Sony's huge lead by pushing playing online. The Playstation was a little late to the table on that, which gave the XBOX a leg up). ALL segments want cross-platform devices. They want mobile, portable units. The Laptop is all but replacing the PC in the home- it takes less space, does as much, and is portable. The Tablet market is challenging the Laptop for the portable unit (although is much slower in "taking off" than predicted 2 years ago), and mobile phones are now mobile first (replacing the MP3 player, the portable game players, and email/communication devices in one easy package), and are actually seen as phones way down on the list, if at all.

What does all this mean? Does Microsoft still want to be the giant it is now in 5 - 10 years or does it want to be a one note wonder, fighting for scraps in the buisness world? MS NEEDS a mobile platform, and it needs it to be successful. My thought is MS wants the Tablet market that is developing more than they really want mobile phones, as that is an untapped spring of profits that fits right in to their buisness software empire. They want to build an ecosystem that assures them of being the software leader 10 years from now. They can not do that without a strong Mobile OS.

Yes, I agree they can't keep dumping money into an unprofitable product forever. But, what is too much money when the future of your company is at stake? They will support WP8 and Windows on Tablets for at least the next couple years. They will fight tooth and nail to get it off they ground. They will support Nokia, fight to keep Samsung and it's huge marketshare, and work to keep HTC, Fujitsu, and ZTE in the fold as well as getting LG back.

Truthfully, as the way the world economy is going, I do not see how they have a choice. I don't even know what plan "B" would be if this doesn't work for them.

 

[canesfan625]

Microsoft lost money on the Xbox for 6 years and its back to profits being down. I guess they are throwing in the Xbox towel too then

 

[smapor]

geez this thread makes it sound like Microsoft is not making billions and billions of dollars a quarter.

Facebook bought instagram for a billion dollars....i am sure MS can lose 5 billion in this market without a sneeze.

Xbox had zero market share when it started, look at it now. Now they are going with $99 Xbox........

If wp7 had a monthly fee of 7 dollars a month for unlimited Xbox live games, I would sign up. MS has alot of potential in the phone market, nothing but going up (since they are at the bottom)

 

[canesfan625]

geez this thread makes it sound like Microsoft is not making billions and billions of dollars a quarter.

Facebook bought instagram for a billion dollars....i am sure MS can lose 5 billion in this market without a sneeze.

Xbox had zero market share when it started, look at it now. Now they are going with $99 Xbox........

If wp7 had a monthly fee of 7 dollars a month for unlimited Xbox live games, I would sign up. MS has alot of potential in the phone market, nothing but going up (since they are at the bottom)

Its not $99 Its the equivalent of buying a cell phone. You buy it for $99 and then pay 15 bucks a month for two years. Its actually more expensive than just buying one

 

[freestaterocker]

Right, but that's the question--what is WP7 actually accomplishing for Microsoft right now other than getting to say they have a mobile OS? In terms of revenue it's probably a money-losing venture. In terms of mindshare it's piddling, marketshare worse.
What's the difference for the smartphone market between WP existing or not existing? A couple percent around the margins.

How long did it take again for Xbox to turn a profit? Like 7 years? Not to mention mobile presence is INFINITELY more valuable to their future relevance...

 

[freestaterocker]

Forgetting that Paul Thurrott has been wrong about pretty much everything this statement is about as wrong as you can get.

What investors? Also if you think them loosing money after just two years means anything go take a look at this thing called the Xbox. Microsoft throws money at things at the beginning. They call Crawl-Walk-Run I think

Actually I think they call it "red ink...red ink...red ink...red ink...BLACK!"

 

[sting7k]

Did anyone else listen to Windows Weekly #259? Paul Thurrott said that some sources in Microsoft were hinting at the fact that if the Windows Phone market share does not increase significantly this year, that Microsoft would be willing to fold it up and move on. He said it was something he had never heard out of them, and that previously they said they were in it to win it. He seemed really bummed by it. Given their history with the Zune and Kin....what do you think? It kind of bummed me out, especially since I find Paul Thurrott to be an extremely reliable source.

Windows Weekly 259 | TWiT.TV *Fast forward to around the 45:00 mark

WP7 is not the Kin or Zune. It's a Windows product and you can believe that they are in it for the long haul. They aren't exactly hurting from it so there's no reason for them to even consider it.

 

[tekhna]

How long did it take again for Xbox to turn a profit? Like 7 years? Not to mention mobile presence is INFINITELY more valuable to their future relevance...

The Xbox had traction in the marketplace. WP7 simply doesn't. Projects can lose money if there's prospects for long-term growth, like the Xbox. But that's what I've been asking is, what is the prospect for long-term growth? Or even short-term growth?

Crawl-walk-run only works if you figure out how to crawl. People are saying "Microsoft can't afford to give up on mobile!" What if they can, or don't have a choice? What if even Android is in trouble, given Apple's absurd dominance? Android has a whole new generation of tablets out, and they're dead in the water, not selling. The iPad is absolutely king. It's not a tablet market, it's an iPad market.

 

[selfcreation]

Paul Thurrott = #1 most unreliable WP source.
I think he started 20 rumors in the last year alone that all turned out to be BS.
I dont read his stuff any more or even pay attention to him.

MS will NEVER drop the CELLPHONE market... maybe go an other direction? like fire half the staff of programers and marketing at MS.. but that's it. MS pretty much created the PDA market ( not saying palm cause they dead now lol ) so it wouldn't be logical for them to drop it .

not to mention they invested SO MUCH cash in Wp that it be stupid to drop it. if anything updates would slow from 1 year updates to 2years....

also WP sales are up so this statement

if the Windows Phone market share does not increase significantly this year, that Microsoft would be willing to fold it up and move on.:

is BS.

 

[tekhna]

MS will NEVER drop the CELLPHONE market... maybe go an other direction? like fire half the staff of programers and marketing at MS.. but that's it.

Give reasons. Don't just state things. Give reasons. So far the only reason I've heard is, Microsoft can't because it just can't! Which is more than a little tautological.
What's the business model for WP? How do they succeed, and what do they do if they can't?

 

[selfcreation]

well the reasons i gave if you actually read my post properly

1. They invested to much cash in WP for them to just walk away after only 2 years. ( billions)
2. they basically created the PDA market so for them to drop it wouldn't make business sens ether cause most of their departments at MS revolve around PDA and the advancement of their OS.


and I don't work for MS I don't know the CEO personally , we dont go fishing on weekends , so NO I cant know for sure just like the rest of the people post in this useless thread/all over the WEB

its ALL RUMORS... and i gave my opinion on the matter.. now can you give your opinion on the matter as well instead of posting a non related post?

thanks.

 

[sentimentGX4]

Give reasons. Don't just state things. Give reasons. So far the only reason I've heard is, Microsoft can't because it just can't! Which is more than a little tautological.
What's the business model for WP? How do they succeed, and what do they do if they can't?

I think the statement Microsoft won't give up on mobile is one of those ultra obvious statements that don't need an explanation.

But, it's also actually been explained a dozen times by users that smartphones are the future of computing and Microsoft is a software company. Mobile is a fast, growing extremely high margin area that is relevant to both consumers and businesses. Basically, Android will become the next Windows OS and Microsoft needs Windows Phone to be the next Windows OS. Windows is Microsoft's golden goose! Also, when Android is squeezed out of the market, then Microsoft can start exercising its monopoly powers and price gouge it as it does with desktop Windows.

Again, I point to Microsoft's cloud services. Microsoft didn't give up on search, cloud storage, etc. did it? Well those never gained any traction either and they're still hemorrhaging money! And they're still not dead! Microsoft isn't going to give up on smartphones just like it never gave up on the internet. Thinking that it will is absurd and makes 0 sense. (They might give up on the current OS WP, but that is all. I'm absolutely certain there will be something else if the do a 360 on WP.)

 

[cluberti]

It'll be interesting to see what happens with Apollo devices, especially with Blackberry falling by the wayside. Especially with Blackberry, who is betting on v10 and new devices but it's likely that v10 isn't going to save the platform - it's got no real chance against iOS and Android users, and looks like it's based on the playbook which makes it less likely to compete with a Windows ecosystem when Apollo comes out based on Win8 (and apps become portable between the two).

I don't personally see Microsoft getting out of the phone OS business, because with Apollo they'll finally have an NT-kernel based OS to run on a phone, a tablet, a PC, etc, with apps written for Metro/WinRT, Silverlight, and .NET environments being fairly portable with minimal changes between the two. It's always possible to fold a business unit losing money, but I think this one (given the consumerization of IT going on right now and likely into the future) is one area they'll stay in until they move into the black, similar to what was done with the xbox.

Also, @Sentimentgx4, products like Bing, SkyDrive, MSN, and cloud computing still exist because they help to sell other products - just because one product doesn't make a profit doesn't mean it does nothing to benefit the bottom line. To wit, do you like natural desktop search? Would you like cloud backup of your files and settings? How about synching all of this data between all of your devices, mobile and otherwise, automatically? How about if they're all built into the OS against your LiveID that you use with all of your Microsoft devices, ala Windows 8 and Windows Phone and XBox? I understand if you single out one product line that competes with other services (for instance, Bing or SkyDrive), the story probably doesn't look all that great. If you step back from the chalkboard so that you can actually read what's written there for the long term, it starts to make (real) sense. Yes, investors really like profit - but Microsoft's stock hasn't really moved much in over 10 years, and most of that is due to investors, not the company's profits or actions. At some point, you have to start executing on a long-term vision and eschew quarterly returns as a measuring stick for how you do business, especially if that long-term vision has the potential to make more than simply shooting for the next 3 month cycle.

 

[tekhna]

I think the statement Microsoft won't give up on mobile is one of those ultra obvious statements that don't need an explanation.

But, it's also actually been explained a dozen times by users that smartphones are the future of computing and Microsoft is a software company. Mobile is a fast, growing extremely high margin area that is relevant to both consumers and businesses. Basically, Android will become the next Windows OS and Microsoft needs Windows Phone to be the next Windows OS. Windows is Microsoft's golden goose! Also, when Android is squeezed out of the market, then Microsoft can start exercising its monopoly powers and price gouge it as it does with desktop Windows.

Again, I point to Microsoft's cloud services. Microsoft didn't give up on search, cloud storage, etc. did it? Well those never gained any traction either and they're still hemorrhaging money! And they're still not dead! Microsoft isn't going to give up on smartphones just like it never gave up on the internet. Thinking that it will is absurd and makes 0 sense. (They might give up on the current OS WP, but that is all. I'm absolutely certain there will be something else if the do a 360 on WP.)

Let me put it a bit differently--what's the difference between WebOS and WP7? Everyone said there's no way HP will kill WebOS, they've invested too much money in it, every serious tech company needs to be a player in the mobile marketplace, it's too soon. They've killed WebOS, and they're doing better for it. Period. End of story.

Pretty much the only path to success for WP7 is hoping Android stumbles, but that's a really long game, and Microsoft is really far behind. Android is finally truly competitive with iOS with ICS and the One X/S and the GS3. The next 9 months could not just give Android a lead in marketshare, but make people believe that it's iOS's equal. If that happens WP7 is screwed. WP7 had a chance when Android was still a buggy mess with some great hardware and lots of mediocre hardware. That's not Android anymore, despite this board's image.

 

[smapor]

Its not $99 Its the equivalent of buying a cell phone. You buy it for $99 and then pay 15 bucks a month for two years. Its actually more expensive than just buying one

most people who buy an Xbox is going to sign up for the service anyway.

if that is true $99 is A better deal.

 

[theefman]

Let me put it a bit differently--what's the difference between WebOS and WP7? Everyone said there's no way HP will kill WebOS, they've invested too much money in it, every serious tech company needs to be a player in the mobile marketplace, it's too soon. They've killed WebOS, and they're doing better for it. Period. End of story.

Pretty much the only path to success for WP7 is hoping Android stumbles, but that's a really long game, and Microsoft is really far behind. Android is finally truly competitive with iOS with ICS and the One X/S and the GS3. The next 9 months could not just give Android a lead in marketshare, but make people believe that it's iOS's equal. If that happens WP7 is screwed. WP7 had a chance when Android was still a buggy mess with some great hardware and lots of mediocre hardware. That's not Android anymore, despite this board's image.

Not sure why you think Microsoft should give up just because android is supposedly competitive with ios. I personally dont hold to the opinion that there can and should be only apple and google as options in the smartphone world, no matter how great their marketshare is.

Ultimately, no one can see the future. Saying MS should give up just because others are ahead now is like saying Samsung should not have aspired to be the number 1 phone maker when Nokia held that spot for all those years. Also WP helps Microsoft tie their services to a mobile experience, which is where the growth is at the moment and for the forseeable future. Unless there is a set time when everything ends, the game is not over. Certainly in a market thats so young calling it a victory for anyone is premature. There's a long way to go and many cards to be played yet.

 

[smapor]

Let me put it a bit differently--what's the difference between WebOS and WP7? Everyone said there's no way HP will kill WebOS, they've invested too much money in it, every serious tech company needs to be a player in the mobile marketplace, it's too soon. They've killed WebOS, and they're doing better for it. Period. End of story.

Pretty much the only path to success for WP7 is hoping Android stumbles, but that's a really long game, and Microsoft is really far behind. Android is finally truly competitive with iOS with ICS and the One X/S and the GS3. The next 9 months could not just give Android a lead in marketshare, but make people believe that it's iOS's equal. If that happens WP7 is screwed. WP7 had a chance when Android was still a buggy mess with some great hardware and lots of mediocre hardware. That's not Android anymore, despite this board's image.

HP is not a software company, big difference......... Them trying to run webos is like Microsoft selling SANS

 

[smapor]

Android is never going to be enterprise ready.. Our company just declared no Android phones allowed on our network.

Your going to need an agent on those phones just to feel safe. Just what we need Mcafee on an android smartphone

 

[tekhna]

Not sure why you think Microsoft should give up just because android is supposedly competitive with ios. I personally dont hold to the opinion that there can and should be only apple and google as options in the smartphone world, no matter how great their marketshare is.

Ultimately, no one can see the future. Saying MS should give up just because others are ahead now is like saying Samsung should not have aspired to be the number 1 phone maker when Nokia held that spot for all those years. Unless there is a set time when everything ends, the game is not over. Certainly in a market thats so young calling it a victory for anyone is premature. There's a long way to go and many cards to be played yet.

Right, but you didn't answer the question. What makes WP7 different from WebOS? People here have been arguing that Microsoft can't possibly get out of the mobile market, that's lunacy. But that's exactly what HP did. They refocused their business. IBM got out of the consumer market. They're doing fine.
And what I've been asking is, what are the criteria for WP7 to be deemed a success? 5% marketshare? That would mean doubling their current marketshare. 10% marketshare? 20%?
How long does Microsoft stay at 2% marketshare before calling it a day?

 

[tekhna]

HP is not a software company, big difference......... Them trying to run webos is like Microsoft selling SANS

Or Xboxes?