05-18-2012 08:49 PM
72 123
tools
  1. naplesbill's Avatar
    I said that was a definition too--read my above post where I said you're technically correct. Measuring something sure wouldn't mean much without a period.
    "AT&T has 100% market share" (in 1958). So obviously period matters. No one ever denied that.
    But there is a common-sense definition that assumes the temporal present AND past (i.e the period is ONGOING) that is different from the investopedia definition, and necessarily so because of devices purchased outside the month of April.

    I have no doubt whatsoever in my mind that WP7 outsold RIM in April. No question, they did. So WP7's "market share" for April would be higher than RIM's, using that definition.
    I also would be very surprised if they had overtaken RIM in "market share" in the sense of proportion of all smartphones in use in the US (which assumes an ongoing period).

    Make sense?
    The article in question is not stating that WP7 has outsold RIM for the month of April. The article covers a 12 week period, or essentially three months.

    Market research company Kantar WorldPanel has revealed in the last 12 weeks to mid-April Windows Phone has shown strong growth in the 7 major markets they monitor on the strength of Nokias offerings
    In contrast RIM saw its US market share collapse to just 3% from 9% a year earlier
    So, tell me where you get your month of April example from?

    Additionally, if you were to also include all existing WM users in marketshare it would show a greater percentage for Microsoft as well. This is not an important metric at this point. The decline of RIM says far more about that company's direction than how many of their users haven't replaced their devices yet.

    Also, for the guy who asked, FUD stands for Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.
    05-17-2012 08:43 AM
  2. tekhna's Avatar
    The article in question is not stating that WP7 has outsold RIM for the month of April. The article covers a 12 week period, or essentially three months.

    So, tell me where you get your month of April example from?
    Right, that number is total sales over that 12-week period--which is awesome, I have no doubt it's correct. They're NOT saying that WP now has more total market share than RIM, they're saying more WP phones were sold phones than RIM in a 12 week period. There's a big difference, and people are using those definitions co-extensively in this thread to say that WP's share of the US market is now greater than RIM's. It is, in a 12-week period. It isn't when you look at the proportion of all cellphones in use in the US, from the data we have.
    05-17-2012 08:51 AM
  3. naplesbill's Avatar
    Right, that number is total sales over that 12-week period--which is awesome, I have no doubt it's correct. They're NOT saying that WP now has more total market share than RIM, they're saying more WP phones were sold phones than RIM in a 12 week period. There's a big difference, and people are using those definitions co-extensively in this thread to say that WP's share of the US market is now greater than RIM's. It is, in a 12-week period. It isn't when you look at the proportion of all cellphones in use in the US, from the data we have.
    The reason that this industry leans more on current period market share is simple. If more of a given platform or device is consistently selling at higher numbers, long-term market share is not difficult to derive from this. It is a better projection if based on the last quarter or two, then the entire base of users. Many people will put up with a device because they either don't want to upgrade, can't afford to upgrade, or they are waiting for some event of sorts. The current sales provide a picture of what is more desirable.
    05-17-2012 08:58 AM
  4. HeyCori's Avatar
    What's FUD?
    Short answer: Spreading false info.

    Fear, uncertainty and doubt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    05-17-2012 09:01 AM
  5. tekhna's Avatar
    The reason that this industry leans more on current period market share is simple. If more of a given platform or device is consistently selling at higher numbers, long-term market share is not difficult to derive from this. It is a better projection if based on the last quarter or two, then the entire base of users. Many people will put up with a device because they either don't want to upgrade, can't afford to upgrade, or they are waiting for some event of sorts. The current sales provide a picture of what is more desirable.
    Yeah, unfortunately that event of sorts is kicking in for me--I have an upgrade I was going to use on a WP8 phone on Verizon, whenever they hit, but I may need to re-up my contract before they kill my unlimited data. :mad:

    Edit--The problem with short-term numbers though is we don't know who those customers are, until we see them relative to total numbers. Is that spike in WP because existing customers went on a tear buying new Lumias, or is it because new customers/other mobile OS customers are buying WP?
    Last edited by tekhna; 05-17-2012 at 09:26 AM.
    05-17-2012 09:02 AM
  6. N8ter's Avatar
    RIM's US marketshare is not 3%.

    I can't believe people even believe this, nevermind the arguments going on about the semantics.

    You can't say Microsoft has more marketshare cause they sold more phones in one month (that doesn't even sound logical to me), cuase not everyone is buying a phone every month. Marketshare is derived from the amount of people who own your product and it's a percent based on the size of the market, which is a dynamic number (always changing, the smartphone market is growing). RIM's sales are actually pretty decent, especially world-wide - growing even. The problem they have is that their growth in sales is not keeping pace with the growth in the market, currently. Unlike Nokia, RIM still makes money.

    WP7 has like 2% marketshare. RIM probably has 10-11%. Microsoft as a whole has like 4% or so if you add in Windows Mobile.

    It's literally impossible for RIM to drop to 3% from where they were unless every consumer in the country threw their Blackberries in the trash, and even then they'd probably still end up with more marketshare than WP7 by virtue of Government and Corporate sales.
    05-17-2012 12:26 PM
  7. Dave Blake's Avatar
    RIM's US marketshare is not 3%.

    I can't believe people even believe this, nevermind the arguments going on about the semantics.

    You can't say Microsoft has more marketshare cause they sold more phones in one month (that doesn't even sound logical to me), cuase not everyone is buying a phone every month. Marketshare is derived from the amount of people who own your product and it's a percent based on the size of the market, which is a dynamic number (always changing, the smartphone market is growing). RIM's sales are actually pretty decent, especially world-wide - growing even. The problem they have is that their growth in sales is not keeping pace with the growth in the market, currently. Unlike Nokia, RIM still makes money.

    WP7 has like 2% marketshare. RIM probably has 10-11%. Microsoft as a whole has like 4% or so if you add in Windows Mobile.

    It's literally impossible for RIM to drop to 3% from where they were unless every consumer in the country threw their Blackberries in the trash, and even then they'd probably still end up with more marketshare than WP7 by virtue of Government and Corporate sales.
    Do you have any evidence to back this up at all? Recent relevant evidence.

    I see with my eyes more BlackBerry devices in a day than I see WP devices. I have a hard time believing that WP has passed the BB. I do think WP is outselling BB. These facts have been posted and we are talking numbers before Nokia released the L900 in the US. The logical conclusion would be that at some point WP will pass BB. I haven't done any studies but someone has. Who am I to disagree with there findings. To say I don't believe it with out numbers to the contrary....:dry
    05-17-2012 12:51 PM
  8. naplesbill's Avatar
    Read the article. It states RIM has gone from 9% to 3% in 12 months. Nothing in the report is based on a single month. The shortest measurement is 12 weeks.

    Sent from my PI86100 using Board Express
    05-17-2012 12:52 PM
  9. tekhna's Avatar
    Do you have any evidence to back this up at all? Recent relevant evidence.

    I see with my eyes more BlackBerry devices in a day than I see WP devices. I have a hard time believing that WP has passed the BB. I do think WP is outselling BB. These facts have been posted and we are talking numbers before Nokia released the L900 in the US. The logical conclusion would be that at some point WP will pass BB. I haven't done any studies but someone has. Who am I to disagree with there findings. To say I don't believe it with out numbers to the contrary....:dry
    Yeah, people are confusing the two definitions of market share at work here.

    The first definition is total, existing marketshare. RIM is still ahead here, undoubtably. It's hard to imagine otherwise.

    The other is market share of new phone sales. I'd believe the numbers that say RIM is only taking 3% there and WP 6%.
    Dave Blake likes this.
    05-17-2012 01:20 PM
  10. HeyCori's Avatar
    And yes I made sure it wasn't already posted on WPCentral. :D

    Windows Phone takes China by storm–already 7% market share, ahead of iPhone | WMPoweruser
    eric12341 and Dave Blake like this.
    05-17-2012 02:17 PM
  11. Dave Blake's Avatar
    Thanks for that but it is now :D

    http://www.windowscentral.com/window...s-iphone-china

    Still more good exciting news for Windows Phone.
    HeyCori likes this.
    05-17-2012 06:28 PM
  12. eric12341's Avatar
    #2 in china already is unbelievable and its not yet even on the country's largest carrier, quite impressive.
    Dave Blake likes this.
    05-17-2012 07:55 PM
  13. scottcraft's Avatar
    I was at an AT&T store today and the girl I talked to said the Lumia had been selling well. She was using one as her work phone and had lots of positive things to say about it. She liked it as much as her iphone she used as a personal phone. With reps pushing WP it's only a matter of time before we're solidly in third place.
    05-17-2012 08:53 PM
  14. cckgz4's Avatar
    When y'all going to learn to ignore it?
    05-17-2012 09:49 PM
  15. baseballbert's Avatar
    I love how the OP says no negative comments, and eventually people start pulling as many facts out of the interwebs as possible to prove others people's Scooby Doo detective work is wrong and get all uppity about it, priceless!

    ZOINKS!!!!

    Hey OP, I'm on board with your positivism on the WP! We're kicking iPhone *** in China, and if I can quote Howard Dean:
    "AND THEN WE'RE GOING TO IOWA!!!"

    Sent from my Lumia 900 using Board Express
    eric12341 likes this.
    05-18-2012 12:05 AM
  16. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    I don't consider China a major win, actually. Consumers from the India, China, Brazil, etc. tend to be indifferent to specs or operating system. I'd expect a very thorough and complete transition from Nokia Symbian users.

    ALso, the "next billion smartphone users" aren't enough to prop up Blackberry and they aren't enough to prop up Symbian. Ever the pragmatist, Apple is thoroughly disinterested in this market. This is merely a token victory for WP and will marginally contribute to its success.
    Last edited by Sentimentgx4; 05-18-2012 at 12:28 AM.
    05-18-2012 12:22 AM
  17. smapor's Avatar
    I don't consider China a major win, actually. Consumers from the India, China, Brazil, etc. tend to be indifferent to specs or operating system. I'd expect a very thorough and complete transition from Nokia Symbian users.

    ALso, the "next billion smartphone users" aren't enough to prop up Blackberry and they aren't enough to prop up Symbian. Ever the pragmatist, Apple is thoroughly disinterested in this market. This is merely a token victory for WP and will marginally contribute to its success.

    Apple not interested in the market?

    Every business's has or wants to get in.....

    Apple core revenue is the Iphone. If there not interested in one of the largest Market in the world....not sure if you are serious.
    05-18-2012 06:48 AM
  18. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    Apple core revenue is the Iphone. If there not interested in one of the largest Market in the world....not sure if you are serious.
    Actions speak louder than words. Who gets the iPhone first? Last? Who does Apple charge the least? The most? How many Apple Stores are in the nation?

    Only so many people can afford an iPhone on <$1000 a month salary. Apple has a bunch of other reasons, of course.
    05-18-2012 07:49 AM
  19. companionlink's Avatar
    Putting the numbers aside for a moment, WP7 really misses the mark in one area that BlackBerry was strong in -- complete sync with Microsoft Outlook.

    BlackBerry has their BBDM software that ships with every device. It allows you to sync over USB.

    WP7 doesn't have anything that does USB sync with Outlook (standalone; no Exchange).

    If BB represents the business user community, I can't imagine WP7 winning over the majority of business users without a reliable, secure, and non-cloud approach to syncing with Outlook.
    05-18-2012 10:41 AM
  20. Dave Blake's Avatar
    Putting the numbers aside for a moment, WP7 really misses the mark in one area that BlackBerry was strong in -- complete sync with Microsoft Outlook.

    BlackBerry has their BBDM software that ships with every device. It allows you to sync over USB.

    WP7 doesn't have anything that does USB sync with Outlook (standalone; no Exchange).

    If BB represents the business user community, I can't imagine WP7 winning over the majority of business users without a reliable, secure, and non-cloud approach to syncing with Outlook.
    This would he a good topic for another thread. Fill free to start one. Lets keep this thread on topic please.
    05-18-2012 11:00 AM
  21. eric12341's Avatar
    Putting the numbers aside for a moment, WP7 really misses the mark in one area that BlackBerry was strong in -- complete sync with Microsoft Outlook.

    BlackBerry has their BBDM software that ships with every device. It allows you to sync over USB.

    WP7 doesn't have anything that does USB sync with Outlook (standalone; no Exchange).

    If BB represents the business user community, I can't imagine WP7 winning over the majority of business users without a reliable, secure, and non-cloud approach to syncing with Outlook.

    This post is so misinformed I don't even know where to begin. Out of my thread with it tho!
    05-18-2012 12:43 PM
  22. smapor's Avatar
    Actions speak louder than words. Who gets the iPhone first? Last? Who does Apple charge the least? The most? How many Apple Stores are in the nation?

    Only so many people can afford an iPhone on <$1000 a month salary. Apple has a bunch of other reasons, of course.
    No matter if they can afford it or not

    Apple will be interested in this market because it's been predicted in this next 20 years China may be the #1 economy in the world, especially when US continues to promote offshore work.

    Apple being disinterested in China is laughable.
    05-18-2012 08:49 PM
72 123
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD