We just passed BlackBerry

[tekhna]

Wikipedia? Seriously? How do we know that you didn't change it to say what you want? Can't disagree with findings.

...do I need to explain to you how Wikipedia works? You can check the change log.
There's a generally accepted definition of market share, and one poster thought he'd try to sway the conversation his way by providing a misleading definition of market share. It's really that simple.
And yes, you can disagree with the findings. Lots of people have been disagreeing.

 

[snowmutt]

Click to view quoted image


The Bears are going to be terrible this year.

Dude, you are so my hero....

 

[eric12341]

...do I need to explain to you how Wikipedia works? You can check the change log.
There's a generally accepted definition of market share, and one poster thought he'd try to sway the conversation his way by providing a misleading definition of market share. It's really that simple.
And yes, you can disagree with the findings. Lots of people have been disagreeing.

Then if you don't agree with the findings then it's obvious that you don't want WP to succeed and shouldn't be posting in this thread or on this site.

 

[bpgui]

Then if you don't agree with the findings then it's obvious that you don't want WP to succeed and shouldn't be posting in this thread or on this site.

That's a bit of a stretch. Wanting WP to succeed doesn't require blindly agreeing with any positive report. That's fanboyism.

 

[Dave Blake]

That's a bit of a stretch. Wanting WP to succeed doesn't require blindly agreeing with any positive report. That's fanboyism.

I guess I would say the opposite. Not believing the facts and findings of major studies. Continuing to argue with things that are proved now I would call that fanboyism. Your word not mine.

 

[bpgui]

I guess I would say the opposite. Not believing the facts and findings of major studies. Continuing to argue with things that are proved now I would call that fanboyism. Your word not mine.

Yes, I made up that word. That's the great thing about the English language, anyone can make up a word and its meaning is usually easily determined.

I think we'll have to disagree on this. Major studies can be and often are wrong. (For example take the health benefit of eggs, each year or so there is a major study saying they are bad for you followed by one saying they are good for you). Wanting WP (or anything else for that matter) to succeed doesn't require blind acceptance of any positive news and rejection of any negative news.

 

[AngryNil]

...do I need to explain to you how Wikipedia works? You can check the change log.

I hope you haven't done research papers for anything above primary-level education.

There's a generally accepted definition of market share, and one poster thought he'd try to sway the conversation his way by providing a misleading definition of market share. It's really that simple.

The generally accepted definition of market share in this industry is unit share over a period of time. Every single of the links below measure a form of percentage share for a set period. All these sources are widely quoted by technology publications.

Nielsen
NPD
Gartner
comScore

But do continue on your FUD campaign, I can't wait for the next baseless assertion!

 

[bpgui]

What's FUD?

 

[smapor]

not hard guys.

consumer wise-blackberry is weak

Business wise-my company has provided more iPhones 8 to 1. The only reason why that 1 exists because it has a keyboard.


Windows 8 is going to destroy RIM leftover market share. Single ecosystem for your work....vs a slower company who does not have the cash flow that MS has...

Regardless of this article, the cellular vendors and other experts know when a ship is sinking.

 

[tekhna]

I hope you haven't done research papers for anything above primary-level education.

Dissertation prospectus under review right now by my committee, blow me a kiss for good luck!

The generally accepted definition of market share in this industry is unit share over a period of time. Every single of the links below measure a form of percentage share for a set period. All these sources are widely quoted by technology publications.

Nielsen
NPD
Gartner
comScore

But do continue on your FUD campaign, I can't wait for the next baseless assertion!

I said that was a definition too--read my above post where I said you're technically correct. Measuring something sure wouldn't mean much without a period.
"AT&T has 100% market share" (in 1958). So obviously period matters. No one ever denied that.
But there is a common-sense definition that assumes the temporal present AND past (i.e the period is ONGOING) that is different from the investopedia definition, and necessarily so because of devices purchased outside the month of April.

I have no doubt whatsoever in my mind that WP7 outsold RIM in April. No question, they did. So WP7's "market share" for April would be higher than RIM's, using that definition.
I also would be very surprised if they had overtaken RIM in "market share" in the sense of proportion of all smartphones in use in the US (which assumes an ongoing period).

Make sense?

 

[naplesbill]

I said that was a definition too--read my above post where I said you're technically correct. Measuring something sure wouldn't mean much without a period.
"AT&T has 100% market share" (in 1958). So obviously period matters. No one ever denied that.
But there is a common-sense definition that assumes the temporal present AND past (i.e the period is ONGOING) that is different from the investopedia definition, and necessarily so because of devices purchased outside the month of April.

I have no doubt whatsoever in my mind that WP7 outsold RIM in April. No question, they did. So WP7's "market share" for April would be higher than RIM's, using that definition.
I also would be very surprised if they had overtaken RIM in "market share" in the sense of proportion of all smartphones in use in the US (which assumes an ongoing period).

Make sense?

The article in question is not stating that WP7 has outsold RIM for the month of April. The article covers a 12 week period, or essentially three months.

Market research company Kantar WorldPanel has revealed in the last 12 weeks to mid-April Windows Phone has shown strong growth in the 7 major markets they monitor on the strength of Nokia?s offerings

In contrast RIM saw its US market share collapse to just 3% from 9% a year earlier

So, tell me where you get your month of April example from?

Additionally, if you were to also include all existing WM users in marketshare it would show a greater percentage for Microsoft as well. This is not an important metric at this point. The decline of RIM says far more about that company's direction than how many of their users haven't replaced their devices yet.

Also, for the guy who asked, FUD stands for Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.

 

[tekhna]

The article in question is not stating that WP7 has outsold RIM for the month of April. The article covers a 12 week period, or essentially three months.

So, tell me where you get your month of April example from?

Right, that number is total sales over that 12-week period--which is awesome, I have no doubt it's correct. They're NOT saying that WP now has more total market share than RIM, they're saying more WP phones were sold phones than RIM in a 12 week period. There's a big difference, and people are using those definitions co-extensively in this thread to say that WP's share of the US market is now greater than RIM's. It is, in a 12-week period. It isn't when you look at the proportion of all cellphones in use in the US, from the data we have.

 

[naplesbill]

Right, that number is total sales over that 12-week period--which is awesome, I have no doubt it's correct. They're NOT saying that WP now has more total market share than RIM, they're saying more WP phones were sold phones than RIM in a 12 week period. There's a big difference, and people are using those definitions co-extensively in this thread to say that WP's share of the US market is now greater than RIM's. It is, in a 12-week period. It isn't when you look at the proportion of all cellphones in use in the US, from the data we have.

The reason that this industry leans more on current period market share is simple. If more of a given platform or device is consistently selling at higher numbers, long-term market share is not difficult to derive from this. It is a better projection if based on the last quarter or two, then the entire base of users. Many people will put up with a device because they either don't want to upgrade, can't afford to upgrade, or they are waiting for some event of sorts. The current sales provide a picture of what is more desirable.

 

[HeyCori]

What's FUD?

Short answer: Spreading false info.

Fear, uncertainty and doubt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[tekhna]

The reason that this industry leans more on current period market share is simple. If more of a given platform or device is consistently selling at higher numbers, long-term market share is not difficult to derive from this. It is a better projection if based on the last quarter or two, then the entire base of users. Many people will put up with a device because they either don't want to upgrade, can't afford to upgrade, or they are waiting for some event of sorts. The current sales provide a picture of what is more desirable.

Yeah, unfortunately that event of sorts is kicking in for me--I have an upgrade I was going to use on a WP8 phone on Verizon, whenever they hit, but I may need to re-up my contract before they kill my unlimited data.

Edit--The problem with short-term numbers though is we don't know who those customers are, until we see them relative to total numbers. Is that spike in WP because existing customers went on a tear buying new Lumias, or is it because new customers/other mobile OS customers are buying WP?

 

[N8ter]

RIM's US marketshare is not 3%.

I can't believe people even believe this, nevermind the arguments going on about the semantics.

You can't say Microsoft has more marketshare cause they sold more phones in one month (that doesn't even sound logical to me), cuase not everyone is buying a phone every month. Marketshare is derived from the amount of people who own your product and it's a percent based on the size of the market, which is a dynamic number (always changing, the smartphone market is growing). RIM's sales are actually pretty decent, especially world-wide - growing even. The problem they have is that their growth in sales is not keeping pace with the growth in the market, currently. Unlike Nokia, RIM still makes money.

WP7 has like 2% marketshare. RIM probably has 10-11%. Microsoft as a whole has like 4% or so if you add in Windows Mobile.

It's literally impossible for RIM to drop to 3% from where they were unless every consumer in the country threw their Blackberries in the trash, and even then they'd probably still end up with more marketshare than WP7 by virtue of Government and Corporate sales.

 

[Dave Blake]

RIM's US marketshare is not 3%.

I can't believe people even believe this, nevermind the arguments going on about the semantics.

You can't say Microsoft has more marketshare cause they sold more phones in one month (that doesn't even sound logical to me), cuase not everyone is buying a phone every month. Marketshare is derived from the amount of people who own your product and it's a percent based on the size of the market, which is a dynamic number (always changing, the smartphone market is growing). RIM's sales are actually pretty decent, especially world-wide - growing even. The problem they have is that their growth in sales is not keeping pace with the growth in the market, currently. Unlike Nokia, RIM still makes money.

WP7 has like 2% marketshare. RIM probably has 10-11%. Microsoft as a whole has like 4% or so if you add in Windows Mobile.

It's literally impossible for RIM to drop to 3% from where they were unless every consumer in the country threw their Blackberries in the trash, and even then they'd probably still end up with more marketshare than WP7 by virtue of Government and Corporate sales.

Do you have any evidence to back this up at all? Recent relevant evidence.

I see with my eyes more BlackBerry devices in a day than I see WP devices. I have a hard time believing that WP has passed the BB. I do think WP is outselling BB. These facts have been posted and we are talking numbers before Nokia released the L900 in the US. The logical conclusion would be that at some point WP will pass BB. I haven't done any studies but someone has. Who am I to disagree with there findings. To say I don't believe it with out numbers to the contrary....:dry

 

[naplesbill]

Read the article. It states RIM has gone from 9% to 3% in 12 months. Nothing in the report is based on a single month. The shortest measurement is 12 weeks.

Sent from my PI86100 using Board Express

 

[tekhna]

Do you have any evidence to back this up at all? Recent relevant evidence.

I see with my eyes more BlackBerry devices in a day than I see WP devices. I have a hard time believing that WP has passed the BB. I do think WP is outselling BB. These facts have been posted and we are talking numbers before Nokia released the L900 in the US. The logical conclusion would be that at some point WP will pass BB. I haven't done any studies but someone has. Who am I to disagree with there findings. To say I don't believe it with out numbers to the contrary....:dry

Yeah, people are confusing the two definitions of market share at work here.

The first definition is total, existing marketshare. RIM is still ahead here, undoubtably. It's hard to imagine otherwise.

The other is market share of new phone sales. I'd believe the numbers that say RIM is only taking 3% there and WP 6%.

 

[HeyCori]

And yes I made sure it wasn't already posted on WPCentral.

Windows Phone takes China by storm–already 7% market share, ahead of iPhone | WMPoweruser