Why Windows Phone hasn't caught on...(Revised from March-ish 2012)

[baileystein]

The problem-is not the features. Or apps. Or design. Or being "easy".

The problem is requirment. And Android. And refusal to jump platforms. And people.

Why can't we win more people? Because they simply don't want to join.

Let's start by looking back.

6/28/2007-iPhone is released to AT&T:
The hype begins:
Most AT&T Customers who were interested in a "smart" phone choose the iPhone as their daily driver. There was nothing else. iPhone. iPhone. iPhone.

BETWEEN THE LINES: Verizon and Sprint customers stumbled as no smartphone options like the iphone were released.

9/20/2008-Android is released:
"What's android" "Is that an iPhone?" were many thoughts of consumers. Most verizon users and sprint users saw this and jumped on it. Just because they couldn't get the iPhone.

BETWEEN THE LINES: Android sales picked up. The O.S. wasn't "crazy stable", but everybody wanted the "Smartphone", but couldn't get the iPhone.

11/8/2010-Windows Phone is released:
Light was not shed. Android was the leader. If you wanted something else, you'd go with the iPhone. Period.

BETWEEN THE LINES: Some early adopters of Windows Phone came. Other stuck with Android.

2/3/2011-iPhone is released for Verizon:
Verizon users soon found that the iPhone had taken over Verizon. Users had two options (and still do). If you were unhappy with Android you switched, or if you didn't really want to switch you sticked with android. That's why Android got popular. It was the only option and when another option came, people did not want to change everything.

BETWEEN THE LINES: Most people just sticked with android and waited for the iphone.

10/11/2012-iPhone is released for Sprint:
Sprint users got what they were looking for.

Unless users are REQUIRED to try Windows Phone or have an extra incentive, they won't switch until the iPhone gets old. Period.

 

[fwaits]

Fact is the masses use what the masses use. Everyone knows the iPhone and Android. Because they are so saturated in the market and on TV that's all people know and want. WP will not burst onto the scene because the market is not in the same place it was when the iPhone or Android hit the market where tons of people were willing to move to a mobile device with data plans and such. Now it's a war or attrition and who can bring the most to the field. MS will have to earn back mind share with people over time with good products, services, and aggressive pricing. Right now the Apple and Google names are more popular than Microsoft, especially with the younger crowd which gives them more "cool" factor. MS can get back to being cool, but it will take time and good efforts in the consumer areas. Xbox is a good starting point, and hopefully things like Surface can bring some cool back to MS in the eyes of the masses which will get more people to look at their offerings more seriously.

 

[baileystein]

Fact is the masses use what the masses use. Everyone knows the iPhone and Android. Because they are so saturated in the market and on TV that's all people know and want. WP will not burst onto the scene because the market is not in the same place it was when the iPhone or Android hit the market where tons of people were willing to move to a mobile device with data plans and such. Now it's a war or attrition and who can bring the most to the field. MS will have to earn back mind share with people over time with good products, services, and aggressive pricing. Right now the Apple and Google names are more popular than Microsoft, especially with the younger crowd which gives them more "cool" factor. MS can get back to being cool, but it will take time and good efforts in the consumer areas. Xbox is a good starting point, and hopefully things like Surface can bring some cool back to MS in the eyes of the masses which will get more people to look at their offerings more seriously.

You'd actually be quite suprised. I'm young. Still a student. I have 40 people in my class. Although that "one" person has an iPhone, Windows Phone is getting out there. Thanks to me, I've pushed out 4 Windows Phones. Okay-10%. Big deal? Right? Nope. HUGE deal. The word got out-WP are fast, pretty, and sexy. They are in style here at least. I often offer discounts if I sell a WP. Sometimes they are free (2 of 4). Everybody gets interested. I'm seeing no loss in profits from repairs. It's making people happy and interested. Everybody keeps asking, "Do you have any cheap phones?". AT&T SUCKS in my area. EDGE for at least 40 mile radius. Most people have Verizon and another local type carrier (Sort of like US Cellular, but smaller). I'm actually working with the carrier to push WP out on their network. I'd bet on WP anyday, but the problem is one word. Reputation.

 

[dannejanne]

WP phones are starting to show up with my friends too. I saw on Facebook last night a friend that declared how happy he was with his new Lumia 900 and that he loved it and it was a breath of fresh air.

I do the best I can to promote them too. I still recommend Android though to the people I think would benefit from it. Never recommend an iPhone though honestly.

 

[Reflexx]

I just hot back from a trip to the Philippines. Nokia Lumias are on the front windows displays of electronics and cell phone shops everywhere.

But while the Lumia is the flagship, most of the Nokias sold are cheap feature phones. The Lumia is seen as a big expensive luxury.

I see why MS wants to offer cheaper phones. Emerging markets have A LOT of potential customers.

 

[Laura Knotek]

I spotted four Windows Phones tonight. http://forums.windowscentral.com/1681309-post1.htm

 

[aubreyq]

I haven't seen a single Lumia "in the wild", but that's probably because of my age group (40+) and the fact that, other than work, I don't get out much

 

[jimski]

Lots of Lumia 900 love during the ESPYS last night.

Sent from my Lumia 900 using Board Express Pro

 

[MinnesotaSteve]

So I have a Lumia 900, and I'm generally happy with it. I'm pretty happy with the way it handles email and phone calls. Those are my most important items, so I'm happy.

But it has quirks. Some pretty severe like me having to turn off cell data to use Wifi reliably. And the response to these issues is SLOW.

The thing about the iPhone and even Android is that so many people use it, if something is not working it hits the national news and they face tremendous pressure to fix it. That's not the case with Windows Phone. There's strength in numbers. There's a comfort, and it's easy to find help. If I go to find an accessory for the Lumia 900, I have to search online. With the iPhone I can go to Target.

It's exceedingly difficult once a product has gained critical mass to overcome that momentum. That being said, Microsoft has historically gained markets by waiting patiently for the competition to make a mistake. Something like the Playstation 3 has to happen to Apple.

 

[sdchris]

Windows phone hasn't caught on because they put beta software onto outdated hardware. Is it any surprise that this is one of the main reasons the phone hasn't gone anywhere? When your best phone is a samsung focus for a year, you've got issues. The real software, mango, which hit last year had some nice one ups on the competition, but it also had many holes that were still unfilled.

Why release new hardware when you cannot take advantage of it the instant you get it, aka front facing cameras. There wasn't video calling software built in when mango came out and it took several months to even get a beta. Once again, is it hard to imagine why the software hasn't caught on? It's not for me.

 

[11B1P]

The reason WP7 isn't doing as well as it could is simply: lack of ADVERTISING on primetime TV. Until Msft invests in a solid advertising campaign, we're screwed. Get the consumers calling their carrier asking if/when they will be stocking the "X" Windows Phone would be the best way to increase our marketshare.

 

[mb-dape]

The problem-is not the features. Or apps. Or design. Or being "easy".

When I show someone my WP phone, they are always impressed by its looks and speed, I think everyone agree that it is well designed. But if let them play with it any longer, they will always ask "How can I do this?" No, you cant... "How do I change this?" No, you cant... "Where is this or that app?" You cant have that app...

Regardless if they are iPhone or Android users, they are spoiled with features and apps, that just dont exist in WP, not yet.

I know a girl who is 13 years old, who has a slow budget Sony Ericsson Android. I let her use my WP phone. She liked the design and some of the games, but she was used to fully functional Skype, many games that WP is missing and the option to customize her phone with wallpapers, start screens, ringtones etc. She didnt think WP was interesting at all. And in the other end, enterprise users from Symbian or WM 6.5 also misses a lot of features in WP (which you can find in other smartphones).

The WP phones have been getting good reviews here, especially the Lumias, because of their hardware desgin and smooth OS.
I read a comparsion in a magazine here, where they compared iOS, Android and WP. They didnt name any winner, but their conclusion was that WP clearly was the OS that you get bored with first. I think thats a good point.

The Nokia Lumia 800 was really hyped here before release and I guess it sold pretty good. But just weeks after its release, the second hand markets on the internet were flooded with Lumia 800s. They didnt have enough to attract people in the long run. Yes, they looked good and the OS was way faster then Android. But then what? Many good apps is missing and you can almost not customize it in any way.

The people who care about design and status get iPhones. The people who want features and customizable phones go for Android. They can offer the speed and design for HDMI connection, HD-screen, hardware accelerated games, native apps and the option to have a completely new start screen every week.

If someone is going to switch from iOS and Android, it will be a sacrifice in some way, and MS / WP have not been able to show people why it would be worth it.

 

[HeyCori]

I think we're running out of reasons why WP is selling poorly. Between all the OEMs and Microsoft, they've already spent billions on advertising. There's been giant billboards, ads, smoked by a windows phone, TV spots, music videos, etc etc. Tech sites isn't skimping on WP news and have been quick to post updates and articles about WP. Heck, walk into AT&T and signs for the 900 is plastered all over the place. I never thought WP would overtake iOS or Android overnight but I thought WP would at least have respectable sales by now.

But I do think WP still has a long way to go when it comes to carrier penetration. Aside from the fact that's WP is not well represented on any carrier besides AT&T/T-Mobile, WP also hasn't cracked the no-contract market. I was in Walmart and was astonished at how many Android phones line the no-contract wall. Just look at how many they have online. There's only 1 Windows Phone listed, the 710 for $269. That's way more than the competition. Smooth UI be damned, that's one heck of a price difference when everyone else is charging $99 for an Android phone. That market doesn't care about apps, or specs, or having the latest and greatest - but they will at some point and Microsoft doesn't even have its foot in the door.

It's a good thing Microsoft has both money and more money.

 

[theefman]

Ultimately Microsoft is to blame. They didnt improve the OS quickly enough which did not allow devs to create compelling apps available to other platforms, OEM's to create compelling hardware and couple that with MS knowing all along that WP8 is what was really going to be competitive you understand why they dragged their feet.

WP7 is based on the CE core which is the same core Windows Mobile was based on yet so many features that were previously available are still missing. Now we know why those features will never come to WP7. Every obstacle that ever stood in the way of WP gaining traction can be traced back to MS's refusal to improve the OS and make it competitive and their underlying reason for that was WP8.

So whatever reason you may think, apply that to what we know now and it becomes clear that Microsoft is to blame for WP7's woeful marketshare.

 

[jmerrey]

too late + the windows/ms name; I would place lack of apps in there too, but i don't think the average consumer knows that wp7 doesn't have angry birds space, wwf, or whatever the app of the moment is. The average consumer does however have a very specific feeling towards the ms/windows branding. For whatever reason, Apple is viewed as the gold standard by the average consumer.

Frankly, I would be very concerned at the moment. The marketshare is absolutely absurd, and it's not getting any better. If ms didn't have billions, wp7 would have gone under by now. I'm hoping w8/wp8 makes a splash, but honestly why would it? None of what MS/Nokia has done has made a dent. I keep hearing the "no way will ms let this fail" statement, but maybe they won't have a choice.

I love my wp7 device, and I really want it to succeed. At this point, I'm worried. Anyone who wants to argue otherwise, I'd love to hear the reasons why this will succeed. Not the reasons why you love wp7, or hate apple/google/android, but the real reasons why wp7/8 will succeed. Because right now we've got to be at 2 years, and the market share is still the same.

 

[baileystein]

I think we're running out of reasons why WP is selling poorly.

Yeah...sounds about right...lol

 

[aubreyq]

I think we're running out of reasons why WP is selling poorly...

No kidding. I feel that threads for low WP sales started a month after WP was released, and the threads haven't stopped!

 

[aubreyq]

Frankly, I would be very concerned at the moment. The marketshare is absolutely absurd, and it's not getting any better. If ms didn't have billions, wp7 would have gone under by now. I'm hoping w8/wp8 makes a splash, but honestly why would it? None of what MS/Nokia has done has made a dent. I keep hearing the "no way will ms let this fail" statement, but maybe they won't have a choice.

I love my wp7 device, and I really want it to succeed. At this point, I'm worried. Anyone who wants to argue otherwise, I'd love to hear the reasons why this will succeed. Not the reasons why you love wp7, or hate apple/google/android, but the real reasons why wp7/8 will succeed. Because right now we've got to be at 2 years, and the market share is still the same.

I fully agree. The announcement today that the market share actually went LOWER was a wake-up call for me. I suppose WP7 was a stop-gap while WP8 was being developed, I dunno. Going back to your post, I'd also love to hear solid reasons as to why it will succeed. The effect of Microsoft's 3 screens of Windows 8 won't be noticed for a while.

At this point I'm 99% inclined to switch to iOS at the end of the year. I figure if WP grows then it will still be there better than ever two years from now, and then I could switch back.

I already gave WP two years (well, almost two), and one of those two years I've been stuck with a disappearing keyboard . Yeah sure, some people will tell me it's AT&T's fault, or Samsung or whatever but if Microsoft really cared about their customers they would be jumping down AT&T's throats. I know the Focus customers are not on Microsoft's radar right now but guess what? My experience is what makes me decide whether or not to continue supporting a platform.

The only way I'll stay with WP is if the rest of the unrevealed WP8 features are truly compelling. Even then, I might jump ship to iOS.

I seem to remember a memo about being stuck on a burning platform? Oh, the irony...

 

[Flan Tamarind]

Bragging rights. This entire situation boils down to bragging rights. People love to be a part of some greater thing thats so awesome it makes your crap turn to gold. The hoards out there traversing the cell phone landscape want that iPhone that such and such has or they heard from a friend to get a Galaxy S3 because of the crazy screen and fast processor.

We can't brag. Outside of the stand out job Nokia has done with the Lumia line, there isnt a single other WP device out that you could really brag about. Even a Titan with its massive screen looks like nothing next to a GS3.

I really like this OS. I will stand on this burning platform until it rains or it falls to a pile of embers. WP8 may give people a reason to brag. The hardware specs from HTC's line sound like the right direction. I'm hopeful that things will turn in our favor with WP8.

 

[Winterfang]

Let's just be honest. The problem is that Windows Phone kind of suck.