Nokia only selling 330,000 Lumias in US?

[Reflexx]

The estimate is pretty ridiculous.

We have a sample size of around 30k being used to get general numbers for an install base of 110 million.

Those statistics weren't meant to accurately represent something being measured under 1%.

They don't even mention what the margin of error is for both Nielson and comScore. And this 300k estimate is supposed to come from a mix of both?

ComScore says there are approximately 110 million smartphone users. How accurate is that supposed to be? We know for dang sure it's not an exact number. Is it +|- 5 million? 10 million? They do a monthly rolling estimate. It's not even meant to be accurate. It's just supposed to give a general idea about the market size.

Neilson gives estimated percentages of market share. What's the margin of error? If it's even 1%, that's higher than the whole Nokia estimate. So it could be off by +|- a million.

Tech reporters should really stop thinking that they know how to be statisticians.

 

[jdelroyc]

I can understand what the poster on the previous page was saying. I have owned my Trophy since launch and have followed the platform since its U.S. launch and have seen two in the wild in this period of time, a Focus and a Trophy, not including the 7 friends/co-workers who I've convinced to switch and the people at the Seattle Inner Circle event last year.

Yes, anecdotal evidence isn't to be taken as the be-all-end-all but I think it speaks volumes when someone like me who is very aware of his surroundings only sees two of these phones in use on what I would call "regular" days in two years. I see plenty of iPhones and plenty of Androids. I don't know if 330k is an accurate number - it wouldn't surprise me - but I'm not sure I really care. As someone else stated, Microsoft cannot afford to lose this battle and will do what is necessary to make it work. There's no reason to get worked up or upset at people out there analyzing the numbers, they're just doing their jobs.

 

[waazzupppp]

300k phones is a decent sales number...

If you figure the average cost of the device is around the $150 mark and that the device sold for $100, the carrier subsidy makes up another $150-200, that would mean that Nokia made over $3 million on the Lumia's sold in the US. Considering Symbian had an almost zero marketshare before the Lumia launch... Nokia is doing OK with Windows Phone in the US.

The bigger problem is, how many of these new Lumia buyers are going to be torqued so bad at the WP8 update not being made available to them that they won't come back?

Also, are they addressing the two Lumia's available from carriers - the 900 and 710 - or are they accounting for the imported 800's and the few unlocked 800's that the MS retail stores have sold as well?

Seems like an awful lot of 900's have moved to kids lately - I think it's the colors.

 

[ninjaap]

I remember the Motorola Backflip debuted with 500K shipped to the ATT and that phone wasn't even considered high end or sell that well. I have a hard time believing 300K is all they sold/shipped for a flagship phone.

 

[based_graham]

If you figure the average cost of the device is around the $150 mark and that the device sold for $100, the carrier subsidy makes up another $150-200, that would mean that Nokia made over $3 million on the Lumia's sold in the US. Considering Symbian had an almost zero marketshare before the Lumia launch... Nokia is doing OK with Windows Phone in the US.

The bigger problem is, how many of these new Lumia buyers are going to be torqued so bad at the WP8 update not being made available to them that they won't come back?

Also, are they addressing the two Lumia's available from carriers - the 900 and 710 - or are they accounting for the imported 800's and the few unlocked 800's that the MS retail stores have sold as well?

Seems like an awful lot of 900's have moved to kids lately - I think it's the colors.

Nokia has said it that they will continue support for the L900 there is tons of life left.

For us Lumia 900 owners that want a WP8 there "might" be early hardware upgrade plans to get us on the new platform.

Microsoft and Nokia need us to test these platforms, see what's good and bad and for us to build a solid fan base around it. WP wont be here without the fans supporting it they know that and I am sure they want to get Windows Phone 8 handsets to us ASAP.

 

[cgk]

So according to their results released today, across all smart-phones, Nokia *shipped* 600,000 units... so that 300,000 sales figure sounds about right...

 

[mprice86]

So according to their results released today, across all smart-phones, Nokia *shipped* 600,000 units... so that 300,000 sales figure sounds about right...

Todays figures are for the quarter, so it was 200,000k per month in the US.

Apparently sales on the Lumia line doubled between Q1 and Q2, but given that they launched 2 new devices and expanded in to a bunch of new markets that's not too surprising.

Engadget
Nokia (PDF)

 

[Reflexx]

So according to their results released today, across all smart-phones, Nokia *shipped* 600,000 units... so that 300,000 sales figure sounds about right...

As mentioned above. That's only 2nd quarter in the US.

And the term is "sold". Not "shipped". Retailers buy these phones. They don't just hold them in stock.

And where do you estimate that only half were resold to consumers? Retailers like AT&T only order more stock when needed. Do you really think they have half of all inventory for 3 months just sitting around? And then they introduce a NEW magenta model? Because they just want to order more stock to sit around? Really?

 

[cgk]

That figure is for all lumias across North America (and other odds and ends) not simply the 900 - even if we accept that every single device is a lumia 900 that was sold to consumers then it is still a failure.

 

[Reflexx]

That figure is for all lumias (and other odds and ends) not simply the 900 - even if we accept that every single device is a lumia 900 that was sold to consumers then it is still a failure.

How do you define "failure"? You want to declare failure as the game is barely starting. If that is how success or failure is defined, then we'd never have anyone ever achieve anything great.

If this were an NBA season, we'd still be in the pre-season where the players are getting to know the competition and each other. There's still a long season left to go.

Nokia stated long ago (even before launching the Lumia series in the US) that the game really starts with WP8.

The purpose of the Lumia series is to establish mind share and branding. Considering their customer satisfaction ratings, they're doing great at that. So they're on the right track.

Nokia is barely being reintroduced into the American market. And so far, they're coming back in with steady growth and a good reputation for quality, style, and service.

 

[cgk]

Nokia stated long ago (even before launching the Lumia series in the US) that the game really starts with WP8.

Sorry but that is revisionist nonsense.

 

[Reflexx]

Sorry but that is revisionist nonsense.

I started to search for the quote, forgetting who said it and if it was at an event or interview. It could take a while.

Then I stopped and remembered that you're just trolling, and it would be time wasted.

You can desire failure all you want if it makes you feel good. But the game is just starting. And I think you'll be very disappointed in 2 yrs.

 

[cgk]

I started to search for the quote, forgetting who said it and if it was at an event or interview. It could take a while.

Then I stopped and remembered that you're just trolling, and it would be time wasted.

You can desire failure all you want if it makes you feel good. But the game is just starting. And I think you'll be very disappointed in 2 yrs.

Why am I trolling? - I use and like a lumia 800 - it is not incommensurable to hold a position that an as individual I think it's a quality device but that the company behind it is failing (as for me 'desiring' failure, the use of such emotive language says more about you than me) - the two are unrelated?

It is possible to use a mobile platform without being a cheerleader (and more rational to boot).

 

[Reflexx]

Why am I trolling? - I use and like a lumia 800 - it is not incommensurable to hold a position that an as individual I think it's a quality device but that the company behind it is failing (as for me 'desiring' failure, the use of such emotive language says more about you than me) - the two are unrelated?

It is possible to use a mobile platform without being a cheerleader (and more rational to boot).

I apologize. You weren't trolling.

I do remember reading statements from a Nokia rep that things really start with WP8. It was back when nobody even heard of the Lumia name yet. And most of the news was about Nokia getting special privelesges with code.

So when you accused me of revisionist history, it rubbed me the wrong way and I assumed you were just trying to be a jerk.

 

[cgk]

I apologise as well - I was a little out of line as well.

Moving on - let's think about this logically - within Quarter 2 - what devices were Nokia offering within North America to account for 600,000 figure - there was the 900, the 710 (I think) - is the 800 sold in the US?

 

[Reflexx]

The 800 is available, but not through any carriers. It's sold at MS stores, of which there are very few. I doubt any statistically significant numbers of the 800 were sold.

 

[anon(5335877)]

The 800 is available, but not through any carriers. It's sold at MS stores, of which there are very few. I doubt any statistically significant numbers of the 800 were sold.

Could you get it by itself, or was it part of that expensive bundle only?

 

[Laura Knotek]

Moving on - let's think about this logically - within Quarter 2 - what devices were Nokia offering within North America to account for 600,000 figure - there was the 900, the 710 (I think) - is the 800 sold in the US?

The 800 is sold in Canada, but it looks like only one carrier, Telus, offers it. Nokia Lumia 800 - Nokia - Canada

The 710 and 900 are also available in Canada. Search results for All, Lumia - Nokia - Canada

 

[cgk]

Looking into it, 710 has been available since q1 and the 900 came on in q2 - so those figures are poor however you cut it - if they were about equal for each device, that means each was selling about 300,000 but if one did significantly better than the other, then one of these devices could have sold sub-200,000.

 

[Laura Knotek]

Looking into it, 710 has been available since q1 and the 900 came on in q2 - so those figures are poor however you cut it - if they were about equal for each device, that means each was selling about 300,000 but if one did significantly better than the other, then one of these devices could have sold sub-200,000.

One also needs to take into account the carriers, at least in the US.

The 710 is only sold by T-Mobile, which is a much smaller carrier than AT&T.

The 900 is only sold by AT&T.

Are all of the Lumia models available in the UK? Do all of the carriers offer all of the models?