Windows Phone Marketshare Predictions

[kittshelby]

Now that we know Verizon might be getting all 3 flagship WP's and ATT and TMobile will also be getting several WP, I think it'd be fun to make some predictions on WP's marketshare.

I feel that, since Verizon will have all 3 flagships (assuming the rumors are correct), if WP doesn't start growing faster, it's going to be a huge disappointment. I mean, what else could be done? WP8 will now have up to date specs, all major carrier support, and supposedly lots of marketing.

My hopeful prediction will be at least 7-8% by the middle of 2013, and at least 10% by the end of 2013.

What are you guys expecting/hoping in terms of marketshare?

 

[kcovert]

Very tough to predict, some will come over just because the phone OS is so good. Yet the two biggest factors are going to matter a lot. First being carrier support and hype, second being the increasing appearance of Windows 8 on laptops and tablets.

 

[dharmababa]

This seems more worth discussing rather than Nokia vs HTC, since success of the overall ecosystem is what we all really need for apps, accessories and the rest of the ecosystem to really come together.

It is a tough call though. Here's some of the key factors I see...

Working in favor:
- WP8 is a v3 OS, fairly mature feature set and few gaps. Still a differentiated but easy to use interface.
- Windows 8 will be everywhere and familiarity with Metro should help (especially when shown side by side.
- Hardware is finally competitive at the top end and there are a number of great looking phones. Also some good low end devices (including 7.8 devices that will help volume at low end and markets like China/India)
- Distribution also seems to be quite good. Verizon seems to be stepping up and only Sprint is really missing (in the US). Hopefully a similar trend will play out in the rest of the world.
- App ecosystem is getting decent (100k) and hopefully will get better with WP8 capabilities like native development.
- Accessories is also getting a bit better with Nokia in particular (docks, etc)

On the flip side:
- Ecosystem still far behind iOS in particular
- Just not a lot of awareness among normal people, everyone knows what an iPhone is
- Not many normal people will go against the trend, iOS and Android are safe choices, what their friends have, etc
- Let's face it, the iPhone 5 and latest Android devices are pretty nice too!

Summing it all up, I think 10% a year from now seems reasonable. It is shaping up to be a great set of products but it is a tough market to break into given the ecosystem aspects. Hopefully from 10% it can build momentum from there.

 

[Reflexx]

I also expect WP market share to get to about 8-10% in 12 months. Then it will be at close to 20% by January 2015.

 

[X0LARIUM]

Would be easier and interesting if someone can provide with previous movements of the markets...some facts and figures from the past will only help us predict better.
But W8 will be a key factor in WP8's success is a given. We, tech enthusiasts, forget there is a major market out there of people who don't given rat's behind if A particular OEM has put in 2000 hours behind designing the look.

all they care about is "latest" & "greatest"...weather it does want it says or not is all they care about. Its us who fight this war of specs vs performance... they just care if they receive their notifications for a Facebook like...

So, a dip in the older market share's movements would only help...

Sent from my XT910 using Xparent Cyan Tapatalk 2

 

[PG2G]

When I saw the thread title, I immediately though 10%. Looks like we all agree, must make it true

 

[Reflexx]

When I saw the thread title, I immediately though 10%. Looks like we all agree, must make it true

And it's pretty much guaranteed that if MS is at 10% right around next holiday season, there will be a bunch of people claiming it as a "massive fail."

 

[TJWINS]

Well I don't have percentages to predict but I do agree with some that the ecosystem will be the reason WP8 succeeds. While I read 60 million iPhones were sold last year. Balmer expects 400 million computers with Windows 8 will ship in 2013. It will be reverse than what happened to Apple. Apple sells more Macs today because of the iPhone but WP8 Phones will sell more tomorrow because of the familiarity of Windows 8 computers. Once consumers walk into a mobile store and see live tiles on a phone like they are accustomed to seeing on their home computers and they realize how integrated the two are, I think you will have many people reaching for Windows Phones.

 

[brmiller1976]

WP will hit 100% share by the end of next year after Microsoft acquires Apple, RIM and Google.

 

[scdkad]

A lot of us were hoping for 10% after 2 years. Guess what-October will be 2 year anniversary.
Hopefully the numbers look good come October/November.

Sent from my Lumia 900 using Board Express

 

[odin09]

The key will be strong advertising by the carriers and the manufacturers. Microsoft needs to push the ecosystem angle. I believe that no matter how awesome the hardware is sales will be slow at first. Only when the brainwashed masses start seeing their friends and coworkers with wp8 handsets will they start to grow. The one thing that helps is that the phones look dramatic and demand attention! Lets all hope for 10%

Sent from my mwp6985 using Board Express

 

[gzlesk]

I think marketshare will spike in China and Europe but not in the United States. Maybe 5% in the US and 10-12% in Europe and China in 6 months from release

 

[tomatoes11]

The only thing I know is that a lot of the tech nerds that always visit all the sites like Techradar, Engadget, The Verge, Pocketnow etc. all love Windows Phone and most are against Apple.

How much that matters is most likely very little because we have a very small effect on the outcome but if MS just sticks with it like they did with the Xbox, i think it will succeed in a few years.

Windows RT and Windows 8 seems strong even to the casuals so let's hope they can propel WP8.

 

[PG2G]

And it's pretty much guaranteed that if MS is at 10% right around next holiday season, there will be a bunch of people claiming it as a "massive fail."

Haha, probably. I see that as success as long as it is on an upward trend.