In order for it to succeed it's going to have to combine the long term device support of Apple and the rapid improvement of Android. And those updates are going to have to be available to end users quickly and easily. I'm a recent convert to the WP8 platform having purchased a Lumia 920 this past weekend. I'm very, very close to returning it because of a overwhelming number of issues that on their own could be forgivable, but added together are just a frustrating experience.
Some of it is the OS/environment itself. Some of it is the hardware of the phone. Some it is the app development by Nokia. Added together I was ready to throw the thing in the box and return it.
Microsoft and the OEM's cannot afford to sit on their heels and churn out annual or longer updates. They have to come fast, they have to provide significant improvements and function, and most importantly they have to work.
There's so many little basic UI functions that could have (should have) been added in WP8 that aren't there. Things as simple as a "tap to top" when browsing web pages, a forward button, notification centers, a fix for the wifi bug on the lock screen, better availability of the SKD prior to launch to actually have apps available, ect. This wasn't a mystery launch. This thing had close to a year of momentum leading up to release at the end of October. The lack of quality 1st party apps at launch is a huge disservice to those on the fence with the platform.
Then combine it with quality issues with flagship models like the 920 and you leave a very bitter taste in the mouth of buyers. WP was already at life support levels of acceptance. MS & OEM's simply can not afford to stumble out of the gates even if this is a marathon. iOS and Android have such a massive head start that they were practically lapping WP from the opening lap.
WP really is a lovely OS and is an enjoyable experience in many areas. But I feel that it was either too rushed or put into development too late to really give it what it needed to be a viable option to the masses of iPhone users or Android converts. The marketing was too late. The apps are too late. The initial hardware has too many QA issues. Ect.
The initial announcement and release was a convoluted disaster.
While I agree with the "marathon" vs. "sprint" you have to understand that MS is in a much different position than Apple or Android. When Apple came out with the iPhone it was a very different market. It was really different device. Android had the luxury of being "not apple" and catering to tinkerers, developers, cheap markets, and has had a massive aggressive hardware and software development cycle. WP is not in either of those positions. The hurdles to overcome are incredible and the fumbled release is not doing any favors. With as little market share that WP already has the problems are going to further alienate the platform and it will eventually have the plug pulled.
I don't care about the top 50 apps and the couple that are missing. It's the next 1000+ that are still used by 10's of thousands of people instead of 10's of millions that give the variety to an ecosystem. The Kid Zone is a great idea...except outside of Angry Birds and Fruit Ninja there are very, very few quality education and younger children oriented applications of any quality in the WP market to put in it.
MS needed to have a huge number of quality 1st party apps on hand and shower developers with money to do it to have a worthy portfolio of applications available at launch.
The major hardware OEM's are Nokia and HTC. Both of those companies are in very bad financial shape. I don't know how long they can survive the WP "marathon" if their devices fail to live up to hype/expectations. Past them you've got Samsung who has the financial freedom to toss out a WP but their hearts aren't really in it. If WP8 flops they are still making money hand over fist in the Android market and they'll simply close the door on MS development.
It's a shame. But I agree with an earlier poster that Android is eventually going to consume most of the market in sales, profits, users, ect. Apple will eventually start to contract as the Android devices become more desirable, the OS more usable, and the app market continues to mature. As much as I'd like to see MS as a player in the long term mobile market, it's just not happening.
Too little. Too late. Too bad.