Windows Phone 8. Does it even have a chance to succeed?

jwinch2

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Responding to the OP,

MS needs to play on its strengths: Security, native app development (for developers) and the overall ease of use in the OS.
Agreed. As noted earlier, they need to kick this into overdrive.

Instead what it is doing is focusing on making people aware of how "You" centric it is. All phones do that. What different are you doing?

Like it or not, I think it boils down to advertising. Now by that I don't mean just commercials. I mean word-a-mouth too.
I have started to see some adds. Hopefully that will pick up.

It has by far the best OS security I have seen (or liked) on any platform. Show me one person who doesn't like a secured device. I have to go through heaps and heaps of pages from one forum to another to know how amazingly secured the OS is. MS needs to tell people about that. FB isn't everyone's reason to pick a WP8. Security definitely is.
This was one of the reasons I started looking elsewhere from Android. RIM is pushing that angle hard for Blackberry 10 to capture market share in government agencies, businesses, etc. They have traditionally done well in this area but you are correct in that MS should be beating that drum loud and consistently as well.

Ease of use: The OS is so simple, it takes just 1 day to understand it throughout. Why? Cause it is designed in such a way that it responds to you in the SAME way everywhere.

People need to be told about all this. See how it becomes an instant hit.
There is no written formula to be successful anywhere. Markets change, people change, times change.

Innovation is what people are looking for. Simplicity in this life is now a rarity. And that's exactly what MS has. In abundance.

Sent from my RaZr HD.

Simplicity is good provided it also gives people the functionality that they are looking for, particularly if they are coming from an Android based device. MS is getting there in this area in my view but still have a ways to go.
 

c8m6p

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I believe the reason WP8 did not include as many end user features as we all expected was because a lot of the work in wp8 went into recoding the base for the new kernel. Now with a solid foundation, ota updates, and new "future proof" hardware I think the os will be updated to include the features we've all been waiting for: ie, notification center, folders, etc.

The app problem is indeed frustrating. But we can't blame developers for not investing their resources in a platform which will not return any dividend.

What needs to happen is WP needs a "killer feature" not available on any other platform. Of course having a unified ecosystem between windows 8 and wp8 will help that cause. With Xbox it was the advent of Xbox live which was superior to PlayStations offerings. I believe MS should push WP as a superior gaming platform. And once it reaches a critical mass of users developers will begin to pay attention and concede to wp8.

I also think some of the design of WP needs to be reconsidered. I am used to it know, but I remember first looking at wp7 and not liking how titles always seemed to be "cut off" as a visual cue to swipe to the right. I think there are other ways to achieve this that would be more visually appealing. Just my opinion.
 

Joelist

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It will be fine. God you people are the worst negative nellies....

The corporate Verizon Store close to me in Chicago is a major one, and they are getting themselves all set for tomorrow (crew in late after close rearranging the store).

The Apple section they used to have in the front of the store has been replaced by Windows Phone with big pictures of the phones, display racks and the whole works. Apple is now just a small area next to Windows Phone. All tablets are in a separate Tablets section and the Androids are towards the back of the store.

I think it is an interesting setup because it basically puts the Windows Phones where everybody will see them immediately. And remember, Verizon historically "launches" phones then gets everything worked up properly for their big sales days - so for them the launch date is not necessarily their push date - look for that on Black Friday probably.
 

jwinch2

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I believe the reason WP8 did not include as many end user features as we all expected was because a lot of the work in wp8 went into recoding the base for the new kernel. Now with a solid foundation, ota updates, and new "future proof" hardware I think the os will be updated to include the features we've all been waiting for: ie, notification center, folders, etc.

The app problem is indeed frustrating. But we can't blame developers for not investing their resources in a platform which will not return any dividend.

Fair assessment in my view. Laying the foundation of the OS itself was the priority. Now that this has been done they can start to push the other aspects of the experience. I really do think they should aggressively pursue app developers from other platforms and make it attractive for them to develop for WP8.
 

phonegeeks

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Fair assessment in my view. Laying the foundation of the OS itself was the priority. Now that this has been done they can start to push the other aspects of the experience. I really do think they should aggressively pursue app developers from other platforms and make it attractive for them to develop for WP8.

I agree. As I stressed earlier, app development is the key. 90% of the time users spend on their phones on apps. Although MS claims that it has 47 of the top 50 apps, it is a very misconstrued figure. They should be talking about the top 1000 apps instead of top 50 to substantiate their claims. As gwinch2 points out in the BB games article above, BB is going to take the market by storm. I am just hoping MS picks its game in the next few months to avoid being obliterated by BB.
 

brmiller1976

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90% of the time users spend on their phones on apps.

Actually, demonstrably untrue.

I did a smartphone study last year. We installed observation software on the handsets of participants with their permission (which we later uninstalled).

45% of smartphone owners used NO smartphone services AT ALL for the entire month. No browsing, no apps. Just phone calls, text messages, and picture messages. (1/3 of iPhone owners believed that they needed a smartphone to send embedded picture messages, BTW).

Of the remaining 55% or so who used smartphone features...

1) 45% used the web browser;
2) About 40% downloaded apps;
3) The average app was used 1.6 times in a month.

The vast majority of time spent on the phone was either in text messaging or phone calls, across all devices. While most buyers picked up a smartphone "with the most apps" because they were told that's what they needed, the vast majority rarely used the apps they downloaded -- even when those apps were paid for.
 

fhumphrey04

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i consider myself to be reasonably unbiased, if that's possible, and I am still on the fence whether or not this OS has a chance to succeed. I know that I enjoy using it and have since WP7, but at this point in the game it's not really a matter of how solid or fast the OS is, it's about apps and public perception.

Whether people use apps or not, it's a marketing tool that they buy into. Apple touts it's million apps left and right, despite the fact that most of them are duplicates of others or poor quality. Google is quick to follow suit on this, despite having 30% less. In reviews it's almost always called out that WP7/8 has so few apps, but most anyone would get along just as well with what is available anyways. It needs to be mentioned as well that several key apps are still not available and it seems as though we get left out for all the new cool apps that come out into the world due to a lack of market share.

Public perception is the big ticket item that has more of an impact than anything else. Apple, despite having a huge amount of the market share, is still considered to be the trendy/cool product manufacturer. Most people who dont buy into that notion tend to go for Android phones. Where does WP sit? It seems to be more or less following in the footsteps of Google, which is hard when they're so widely known already and manufacturers pump out new and more powerful devices every other day. It's going to be a really challenging road ahead for Microsoft, hopefully they can find a niche and exploit it, because this is a damn good operating system.
 

cajunlte

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i consider myself to be reasonably unbiased, if that's possible, and I am still on the fence whether or not this OS has a chance to succeed. I know that I enjoy using it and have since WP7, but at this point in the game it's not really a matter of how solid or fast the OS is, it's about apps and public perception.

Whether people use apps or not, it's a marketing tool that they buy into. Apple touts it's million apps left and right, despite the fact that most of them are duplicates of others or poor quality. Google is quick to follow suit on this, despite having 30% less. In reviews it's almost always called out that WP7/8 has so few apps, but most anyone would get along just as well with what is available anyways. It needs to be mentioned as well that several key apps are still not available and it seems as though we get left out for all the new cool apps that come out into the world due to a lack of market share.

Public perception is the big ticket item that has more of an impact than anything else. Apple, despite having a huge amount of the market share, is still considered to be the trendy/cool product manufacturer. Most people who dont buy into that notion tend to go for Android phones. Where does WP sit? It seems to be more or less following in the footsteps of Google, which is hard when they're so widely known already and manufacturers pump out new and more powerful devices every other day. It's going to be a really challenging road ahead for Microsoft, hopefully they can find a niche and exploit it, because this is a damn good operating system.
Personally, I find myself enjoying the OS much better than both my old IOS device and my recent ICS android. The one thing that has caused me to pause in really enjoying my experience has been around the lack of apps tied to what I used day to day on the android. Companies like Mshift (financial app developer) really need to get on board. If the big boy developers get on board then I think the adoption rates are going to increase greatly as user experiences improve. I do look forward to what happens to the whole window 8 ecosystem.
 

jwinch2

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Apple touts it's million apps left and right, despite the fact that most of them are duplicates of others or poor quality. Google is quick to follow suit on this, despite having 30% less. In reviews it's almost always called out that WP7/8 has so few apps, but most anyone would get along just as well with what is available anyways.

I can only speak to my own experience on this one. For my wife, for whom her Lumia 820 is her first smartphone, she is fine with what is up for WP8. For me, coming from Android and having used a smart phone pretty much since their inception, there are dozens of apps which I used regularly, many daily, that there is no viable option for on WP8.

Another thing to consider is that younger users are probably more likely to use apps as compared to older users. My mom, who has an iPhone, uses it for calls, calendar, e-mail, and texts. That's pretty much it except for a weather app she uses once and a while. However, younger viewers are going to be more attached to apps. With even desktop computing going the app route, this is going to be more and more of an issue as we go forward.

My final thought at this point is that the numbers of new smartphone owners are going to plateau in the not too distant future. With that in mind, major increases in market share are going to have to come from people switching from one platform to another. If MS wishes to pull people who are used to being spoiled for choice in terms of apps, they are going to have to be able to provide the same while doing so along side of the integrated process they are working towards between phone, tablet, and desktop.
 

jwinch2

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We are all doomed! Windows Phone will be washed away by the unstoppable tidal wave of BlackBerry 10!

I'm not sure if that was directed at me or not since I brought up BB10 in an earlier post, but I will respond anyway. I don't think Windows Phone is doomed because of BB10 at all.

I do think, however, that MS has this frame of time with nothing new coming from Android, iPhone 5 has already been released, and BB10 is not due until Feb of 2013. This window of time is a gift, and MS should use it to their advantage. One of the big areas that RIM is touting in terms of Blackberry and their new OS, is security of the system. This is something that Microsoft has worked on very hard with WP8 and it would be crazy in my view for them to not trumpet this for companies looking for a platform to adopt for business purposes.

RIM has long recognized the needs of the business world when designing their devices and their OS. That is the reason you see so many BB devices without a camera, even in recent years. Persons who work in some government buildings, courthouses, or even certain business are forbidden from bringing a camera into the building. BB knows this and smartly, put out a couple of devices here and there with no camera. Am I saying that MS should put out a cameraless phone? Not necessarily. What I am saying is that MS should strongly pursue business adoption by highlighting the things which businesses like to see such as integration across platforms, support, security, etc.
 

blehblehbleh

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Actually, demonstrably untrue.

I did a smartphone study last year. We installed observation software on the handsets of participants with their permission (which we later uninstalled).

45% of smartphone owners used NO smartphone services AT ALL for the entire month. No browsing, no apps. Just phone calls, text messages, and picture messages. (1/3 of iPhone owners believed that they needed a smartphone to send embedded picture messages, BTW).

Of the remaining 55% or so who used smartphone features...

1) 45% used the web browser;
2) About 40% downloaded apps;
3) The average app was used 1.6 times in a month.

The vast majority of time spent on the phone was either in text messaging or phone calls, across all devices. While most buyers picked up a smartphone "with the most apps" because they were told that's what they needed, the vast majority rarely used the apps they downloaded -- even when those apps were paid for.

Interesting. What was the sample size and data plan options of the people you did this on?
 

downhillrider

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We'll know how WP is doing when the numbers are released. I'm enjoying my 920. I know that I went to Target today, the only Target in Seattle and they had no WP8 phones. One of the guys had no idea a new WP OS came out.
 

phonegeeks

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I have been looking for Lumia 920 unlocked but haven't had any luck so far. The only store that said it had stocks was gsmnation. They are selling OEM versions. What are the pros and cons of OEM?
 

Isror

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The biggest problem with WP8 is the people who have never used the platform listening to what someone else who also has never used the platform tell them. Without knowing the total number of units produced for the initial shipments, its hard to gauge sales, but so far, the reports of vendors selling out is a positive sign. It really takes a user base effort to promote the platform, not just the hardware manufactures and carriers. We are the ultimate sales machine for WP8, being able to show our friends, peers, colleagues, and the passerby how truly unique WP8 is. Yes, I am that annoying guy when in Verizon stores or Best Buy that will jump in on a sale when I hear a salesmen giving a customer total bunk about other quality devices; I'd expect the same from someone else in a field I don't understand.
 

sirfly2fly

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Just read thru the whole thread and majority of posts seem to mention apps opposed to features of the OS. Also in regards to the "marathon vs. sprint" comments BB10 seems to be who WP8 will be going against sorta like they're in their own league until they start taking chunks out of iOS and Android market share. I don't really see Android losing too much market share yet until some of their OEMs get in real financial trouble well because there are 4 OS to choose from and samsung is doing the best on the platform.
Back to apps, i think they should take a page out of what RIM is doing. RIM have been opening places for developers to go to in their region and get help developing apps. That right there puts them on a global scale as they have people who deal with the same things as the consumers in that region developing apps for them. The game-a-thon mentioned earlier. I also wanna know why was the SDK released after the phone if you know need apps, and developers need Win8 to develop if im not mistaken, creating a roadblock for developers worldwide.
As a BB user i'm interested in seeing WP8 succeed along with BB10. I'm sure an update will come to WP8 next year, what features are you interested in seeing added?

** just seen a tweet on twitter and 200 games submitted within one hour already..
 
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LookitsPuck

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Why do they tire you? Because MS is on the bottom?

The Mac was dead until MS threw them a bone. Its still low market share, but their profits margins are very high, so it makes it worth their time.

The G1 was an god awful phone. But it caught on dude to the openness. I hated the G1, but the people who had them loved it.

I bought the original G1, people liked it because it was different from the iPhone, but it wasn't marketed well. Android caught on because of the Droid campaign, not because of the G1. By all accounts the G1's marketing was abysmal.
 

davide445

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Starting from this report

Press Release - 2012 U.S. Wireless Smartphone Customer Satisfaction Study and 2012 U.S. Wireless Traditional Mobile Phone Satisfaction Study | J.D. Power

appear that smartphone customers are searching primarly for

social apps/gaming
system stability

Social apps and gaming are connected to device camera features (pictures/movies) and CPU/GPU horsepower.

More interested to price and less to features.

I will check from myself since at the end of November I will have my first wp, but reading all the forum appear that power and camera features are not a problem, but there are many stability problems both for devices and social apps.

My idea is that wp have all the potentiality to do well, but smartphone customers are a lot more volatile than pc users and if they don't like the device/OS they change it in a short time. In smartphone market there are good alternatives to wp, iOS and Android if not BB. PC market it's almost a monopoly so if the new Windows have some problems....we will wait and have some good patience.

So MS and Nokia/HTC (Samsung its not so involved in my idea in wp business) need to push as hard as they can to have good social app and system stability NOW, not in the next 6 month/ 1 year that is the usual MS timeframe for correcting Windows bugs.

Start doing monthly updates that work, since after giving a wrong first impression they will never have a second opportunity to differentiate and they need to compete on the price, and that's not sustainable against Android. MS/Nokia/HTC need to integrate their effort, since if people saw a bad working HTC 8X they are thinking to wp8 also, not only to HTC device. Wp devices are recognizable so they all share a brand.

I have never returned a phone in my life, but I always owned Nokia with the proprietary Symbian OS. Maybe was not so sleek, but I never TOUGHT that can have problems. It was working, always for maybe 18 hours a day.
I own since 2 years an iPad, that's not a iPhone and so was not involved in complex realtime updates chatting and calling. But also I never have had any problem from FB app to any other I used.

For the first time I will have a wp. But also for the first time I'm checking in advance for the opportunity to return it if its not working for the 3-4 basic things I request: FB, instant messaging, music/video from private collection (no Xbox music) and also calling/messaging. A serious problem here it's simply not acceptable since I don't want anything sophisticate AND I have alternatives.
 
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