Trends analysis of 920, 8x, Windows Phone and Lumia

[a5cent]

I just did a quick and dirty trends analysis on Google (definitely not scientific). I thought others might also be interested. This is what I see:

• Those regions in which the Nokia brand remained popular are the same regions whose population most often searched for the word "Lumia", namely eastern Europe, India and Finland.
• It appears the Lumia brand is more widely recognized than any other WP related term. Particularly since the introduction of Nokia's WP8 devices (trending up quickly).
• The initial interest in WP devices since the launch of WP8 hasn't faded. In fact it continues to grow. I interpret this to mean that WP now interests a group of people beyond the hardcore phone geeks.
• Interest in the 8x doesn't seem to be growing at an equal rate to the other trend lines.
• If a countries population shows an above average interest in the 920, they are also likely to show an above average interest in the 8x, with the exceptions of China, Saudi Arabia and... wait for it... Finland (duh). China is of particular interest, as it seems to suggest Nokia has a more uncontested market there than elsewhere.
• As was to be expected, the 920 isn't of much interest in those countries with lower average incomes. Whether Nokia is a well known brand or not isn't very relevant.

Here is the link, should anyone else want to play around with it. What do you guys and gals make of it?

 

[baseballbert]

I'm thinking the phone has only been out for six weeks or so. It will take a while for a real head of steam to to mount.

 

[anujtwp]

I read speculative report that Lumia 920 is outselling HTC 8X in 5:1 ratio, 820+822+810 and 8X selling in 1:1 ratio, galaxy s3 outselling lumia 920 in 9:1 ratio. cant find the link now but that analysis was also based on various search patterns, app usages etc and it was pretty straightforward.

 

[a5cent]

I'm thinking the phone has only been out for six weeks or so. It will take a while for a real head of steam to to mount.

Agree, still, the steep trajectory for "lumia" searches is quite impressive, already now, no?

 

[vlad0]

galaxy s3 outselling lumia 920 in 9:1

Plausible.. the galaxy brand has a lot of momentum and the carriers seem to be pushing their stock hard. The Lumia brand will gain momentum very quickly.. Nokia still has a pretty strong brand recognition globally, so all they need is a little push from the carriers. They got it China, and in the US to a certain extent.. I think AT&T is doing a good job overall.

Nokia needs a new flagship by May-June for the summer, and another attractive mid tier.. They need to take hit on the margins as well, at least until they get some momentum going. I think they are doing exactly that here in the US.. the 920 is really cheap here, cheaper than anywhere else in the world by quite a margin.

 

[dogfish54]

I have no doubt that the Galaxy S3 is outselling 9:1 - I also think the S3 is likely outselling the iphone5 (maybe not all iPhones combines though). I also have no doubt that the 920 is obliterating the 8X.

HTC will likely move down the price of the 8X soon which should help. It seems that there are already some specials running at both Verizon and AT&T; the best deals being on Amazon and Walmart wireless.

 

[dogfish54]

Nokia needs a new flagship by May-June for the summer, and another attractive mid tier.. They need to take hit on the margins as well, at least until they get some momentum going. I think they are doing exactly that here in the US.. the 920 is really cheap here, cheaper than anywhere else in the world by quite a margin.

Internationally it's a mess. EE did a TERRIBLE job as a partner in the UK, and the price in other countries (except China) is much higher than the US, although arguably it's ridiculously cheap in the US.

In the U.S, I think that ATT is taking a lot of the subsidy hit on the 920 because of the exclusive. It seems that Nokia are also pushing to get minimum volume commitments from carriers along with the exclusive. This is a good thing for the platform as it guarantees the carrier will push the device.

I'm not exactly professing to be Nostradamus by saying this, but I think that flagship will be on Verizon, with the tablet for ATT. I think it will be before May/June. This way they can keep the ATT customers happy by not superseding their device after three months and keep Verizon (and their customers) happy with a new flagship. If they can then release a new ATT flagship in the May/June timeframe, then a new Verizon one for the holidays, I think that's a winning formula.

In the mean time, hopefully T-MO can get the 920 for a decent price once the exclusivity at ATT runs out.

 

[ohgood]

I read speculative report that Lumia 920 is outselling HTC 8X in 5:1 ratio, 820+822+810 and 8X selling in 1:1 ratio, galaxy s3 outselling lumia 920 in 9:1 ratio. cant find the link now but that analysis was also based on various search patterns, app usages etc and it was pretty straightforward.

Speculation, no hard, official sales figures.

Id think a sgs3:920 of 9:1 is incredibly optimistic, possibly fantasy towards 920 sales. If it was anywhere near that ratio, wp8 development would be on FIRE with devs looking to grab some cash through consumer app purchases.

 

[dogfish54]

Speculation, no hard, official sales figures.

Id think a sgs3:920 of 9:1 is incredibly optimistic, possibly fantasy. If it was anywhere near that ratio, wp8 development would be on FIRE with devs looking to grab some cash through consumer app purchases.

No, for every 9 Galaxies that are sold, there is only 1 Lumia. I think you misunderstood.

 

[ohgood]

No, I understood. The ratio is likely closer to 90:1 or worse, but we're all just speculating, as there aren't any sales figures for lumias. Edited other reply to make it clearer, also

 

[Coolknight1968]

No, I understood. The ratio is likely closer to 90:1 or worse, but we're all just speculating, as there aren't any sales figures for lumias. Edited other reply to make it clearer, also

NO. They sell around 24 other phones for every WP8. And of that market the S3 only has a share of the 24. Out of 5 WP one is a 920. The 8X sells ok.

 

[dogfish54]

I feel like there is no point in arguing here, but my thought is that (in the U.S) 3 out of 5 are 920's, 1 is likely an 8X and the other is one of the other Lumia's. I could be completely wrong, Best buy seem to be pushing the 8X a lot harder than the 920 and the commercials nearly all feature the 8X. I've not seen the 8X in any of the top ten lists anywhere though. It also does not seems to have many customer reviews.

 

[dogfish54]

One comment on the analysis is that the 8x has a confusing name. Not that it would be hard for customers to find, but it's hard to do a real definitive analysis on the name search. Do they search for HTC 8X or HTC windows phone 8X.

Again, this is not likely to impact the end customer, it's just a factor when doing this type of analysis.

 

[ohgood]

NO. They sell around 24 other phones for every WP8. And of that market the S3 only has a share of the 24. Out of 5 WP one is a 920. The 8X sells ok.

Do you have an official source for these estimates ?
The graphs are neat and all, but its really grasping at straws as far as real sales go.

 

[dogfish54]

We'll get some numbers from Nokia in early January, but it will be for all Lumia devices. Couldn't find a date for HTC, but I think it's early January.

 

[brmiller1976]

I read speculative report that Lumia 920 is outselling HTC 8X in 5:1 ratio, 820+822+810 and 8X selling in 1:1 ratio, galaxy s3 outselling lumia 920 in 9:1 ratio. cant find the link now but that analysis was also based on various search patterns, app usages etc and it was pretty straightforward.

I hope that's wrong.

Galaxy S III sells at an annual rate of about 35 million handsets.

That would mean that Lumia 920 is selling at an annual rate of 3.9 million handsets, 8X is selling at 780K units a year, and 8XX are selling similarly.

That means annualized WP8 sales of only 5.46 million handsets a year.

For comparison's sake, RIM sold almost 7 million old BlackBerry 7 devices just last quarter.

 

[a5cent]

One comment on the analysis is that the 8x has a confusing name. Not that it would be hard for customers to find, but it's hard to do a real definitive analysis on the name search. Do they search for HTC 8X or HTC windows phone 8X.

Again, this is not likely to impact the end customer, it's just a factor when doing this type of analysis.

All the examples you provided (HTC 8x, windows phone 8x) are included in the graph. The trends analysis includes every search that included the term 8x, which is precisely why I chose that short term rather than one that is more precise.

That doesn't mean it's perfect though. At least in theory, the graph includes those people who used the term 8x in their query and then clicked on a smartphone related page, when they were in fact looking for something entirely different... that is likely to be a very small number of searches, if any at all, but those would be included in the graph. I'm sure that isn't the only imperfection...

 

[a5cent]

The graphs are neat and all, but its really grasping at straws as far as real sales go.

I agree. That also wasn't my intent. I would be floored if a predictable correlation existed between WP related internet searches and WP device sales. My intent was only to understand how the world perceives WP, and how fast interest is growing if at all. I do think the graphs are a good approximation of that.

 

[Coolknight1968]

Do you have an official source for these estimates ?
The graphs are neat and all, but its really grasping at straws as far as real sales go.

1+24 = 25 x 4 = 100 of which 1% is Other than WP, Android or iOS.
WP had 3% market share before WP8.
But WP8 has more market share I believe than only 3%
Google : Nokia can only make 2.4 million Lumias per month in 2012.
As to 8X, look for November Sales increase, 24% compared to October 2012. So they're selling 8X ok.
I would not be surprised if close to 10m WP8 are sold in by the end of Jan. 2013. 3x2.4=7.2 delta is: 2.8 or 930'000 non Nokia per month. Of which most will be HTC as Samsung is only starting in January.

 

[ohgood]

I agree. That also wasn't my intent. I would be floored if a predictable correlation existed between WP related internet searches and WP device sales. My intent was only to understand how the world perceives WP, and how fast interest is growing if at all. I do think the graphs are a good approximation of that.

i should have caught that... guess I need some RIF practice.

watching the dev forums, and the nonexistent sales reports are all I have to go by, neither paints a great picture yet.