Paul Thurott: Nokia is circling the drain. Surface Phone only hope.

[Luminatic]

My Noka Lumia 920 screen shattered on first drop, from about 20". I am am major fan and had bought the stock a few weeks ago, based on this new phone. This screen breakage issue is a Major hardware flaw and I have already seen many reports online of screens breaking on first drop. Mark my word. I think this is going to be a major embarrassment for Nokia. They need to do something, fast, to help out customers who have already had, are who are going to have this breakage.

Happened to other makers/phones (older iPHone models; Galaxy S3) as well ... was it embarassing? Yes. Did it hurt them? I don't think so. So, to be honest, I don't see your point here.

 

[AngryNil]

This is not a flaw of the phone, as it uses the same glass that all recent smartphones do - Corning Gorilla Glass 2. Next time buy phone insurance if you can, because no phone is "safe" from a drop no matter how strong - and they all use the same strength glass.

Remember the whole appeal of the original N9 screen was that it was convex. Nokia took that away with the 900 and brought it back with the 920. Let's be real, you have a protruding screen, it's gonna crack when you drop it. Of course it's partly the fault of the user, but it's also a concession made by Nokia when designing the product.

So where can I get a WP8 with a physical keyboard? What about a game controller on it? Sure the touch screen slab form factors are being covered by Nokia and HTC, but I don't see anyone bringing a physical keyboard to the table. Plus if I'm shrinking down in size the physical keyboard would come in handy.

Name the best selling QWERTY smartphone on the market, and compare it to iPhone / Galaxy sales. I love physical keyboards too, I've suggested for Microsoft to create such a device in other threads. But it won't be a runaway success and won't be the device that will spark the adoption of Windows Phone 8.

"Device and services" is all nice and pretty, but it's missing a pretty damn vital part - the software that binds the two together. Microsoft has completely dropped the ball in regards to that binding software (see Xbox Music), and that's where it should be focusing. There's no problem with the hardware on the market today. Complaints in reviews are all about the subpar software.

 

[JamesTBurns]

IIRC, Thurott said he got the 8X, so there is always that purchasers bias. Nokia is only OEM innovating right now, and they are singlehandedly propping up WP8. Can you imagine if the WP8 flagship lineup was the 8X and Ativ S? The whole thing would be an afterthought. When Nokia brings their Windows RT tablet, I have no doubt it will be superior to the Surface.

 

[BrutalSC]

Load of crap. First of all, why the desperation? WP is making slow but a steady climb in market share. Did he think that the change would come in a quarter? Second, its Microsoft that is demonstrating lack of capacity and leadership. This guy expects Nokia to be the one taking the lead in developing a platform that is not theirs? Nokia is going beyond doing their part. I dont understand what Nokia could have done other than maybe better availability (which is still a minor issue and possibly an advantage).

If Surface Phone is the only hope, then there is no hope. Hardware is not the problem, its the software and ecosystem. And Microsoft should concentrate on those if it wishes to make WP successful. But on the other hand, I dont share his desperation. I think WP8 and Nokia is doing as well as could have been realistically be expected, whether it is enough, remains to be seen but Im optimistic.

Then there the whole US centrism. Pisses me off. One of several important markets, furthered weighted because of the number of developers. Yet it still is only a market. Platforms can become popular else where first and only after in the US. Failing there doesn't mean failing as a whole. China is a larger market, as is the EU. Then there the rest of the world: Russia, Japan, Africa, S-America, India, Middle-East... China especially might be the one where WP becomes popular. Nokia is strong there and Apple isn't. Obviously Android has by far largest market share but I don't think it carries the same prestige as WP, its too common basically and therefore not really a status symbol, apart from maybe some specific devices.

 

[Ruined]

Remember the whole appeal of the original N9 screen was that it was convex. Nokia took that away with the 900 and brought it back with the 920. Let's be real, you have a protruding screen, it's gonna crack when you drop it. Of course it's partly the fault of the user, but it's also a concession made by Nokia when designing the product.

It does increase the chances of it cracking, but I would not say the amount it increases the chances are huge. And lets face it, Nokia brought back the screen design because the flat screen of the 900 was a major complaint people had about it vs the 800.

Name the best selling QWERTY smartphone on the market, and compare it to iPhone / Galaxy sales. I love physical keyboards too, I've suggested for Microsoft to create such a device in other threads. But it won't be a runaway success and won't be the device that will spark the adoption of Windows Phone 8.

I agree, they should have at least 1 out there - this is where Microsoft could step in with a surface phone as other manufs might not want to take the risk with a niche market. Because there are some people that want that, and if MS doesn't make it RIM is going to keep a lot of that marketshare.

"Device and services" is all nice and pretty, but it's missing a pretty damn vital part - the software that binds the two together. Microsoft has completely dropped the ball in regards to that binding software (see Xbox Music), and that's where it should be focusing. There's no problem with the hardware on the market today. Complaints in reviews are all about the subpar software.

Agreed, funny to see Microsoft's ecosystem with great hardware but half baked software in some places, like the ever-important media mgmt. software.

 

[theefman]

Sorry, but one manufacturer can't take the entire OS to the next level overnight or over a year. Right now, majority of people are invested in apps and if Microsoft doesn't offer same apps on their platform, nobody will buy it. Another reason is that Microsoft themselves fail to advertise WP. When was the last time this guy went into a microsoft store? I go into a Microsoft store every week, and all I see is Surface all over the place. The phones are hidden somewhere in the corner where nobody can see them. Microsoft needs to pull their weight, and so far they haven't. The OS lacks simple things like orientation lock and different levels of brightness instead of 3 and many other features.
In 2 years, Nokia already increased marketshare of WP and in fact they were responsible for many new apps coming to WP that were already available on iOS and Android.

Unless Surface phone brings something absolutely insane to the table, it won't have a chance just like Surface itself. The reason why Surface Phone won't stand a chance without something truly unique is because the OS itself is the same on all phones. How will they differentiate? Camera? Not a chance. Design? Most likely not. Price? With 920 at $100, I don't think so.

In order for WP to take off, Microsoft needs to get more top devs onto platform and so far they haven't done it.

Let's do a simple test to see if Nokia changed anything. Who here joined WP for the first time because of Nokia?

Got it in one! And why isn't HTC un the firing line, especially with them having the "signature" device? Why no criticism for Samsung not putting their mobile weight behind WP? No, its all on Nokia to pull this platform from its poor position, not Microsoft who have made the software so frustrating in places and can't accomplish simple tasks like syncing your media. But everything will be fine once the magical Surface phone is released with its fairy dust and mystical powers to make people buy it, just like the Surface RT.......

 

[mparker]

Back to your original ecosystem point, millions upon millions of people are quite content using iPhones and iPads and androids along with their Xboxes and Windows PCs and there not much indication of that being any different at the present moment. Where ecosystem becomes more important to the average user is when they can use the same purchased apps on both their phone and tablet, and that can be had with any OS

Except Windows, which requires you to buy separate apps for phone and tablet; a jarring difference from their competition. Yes, WP8 and WinRT are technically different OS's, but so are Win 8 and Win RT and that doesn't stop them from running the same store apps.

 

[Lilleverden]

Nokia need this to work, first of i dont think there is anything wrong With the 920 hardware, i find the screen to be great, calling quality greater than S3 and Iphone4 that i have had. the battery is on par With the S3. All the apps that i NEED are there. Nokia has pushed many app updates that gives me indications that Nokia is doing their part in the Eco system.

Windows phone 8 OS has many good features, like mail, Peoples hub, customizing home screen etc.
But Windows Phone 8 does have it faults, and i think this might frustrate some.

I can Mention some kind of Notification center, sometimes i get alerts, but unless i have the app on my homescreen, i really dont know what it is

Its Microsoft who makes the Facebook app, and i cant understand why they did not Make an more updated app for the wp8 launch, todays app, is slow, doesnt always show Messages in the tile.

Xbox Music: unless you have some patience you will give up this service quickly if you have used other apps like spotify, simplify simplify and simplify, i do use it now. but in the beginning i found be a hassle.

Nokia will survive, i think and hope.

 

[Michael Alan Goff]

Yes it actually did. They have about four record breaking quarters in a row before being outdone by Samsung.

That's why their profits for 2012 have been down from 2011, right?

They had record breaking profits in 2011.

Or maybe we should talk about the great Motorola and their massive fortune through Android.

 

[socialcarpet]

I hate to say this...but I don't think Nokia can survive without making an Android phone.

A lot of people say this, but the truth is, if Nokia makes an Android phone, you will know it is the beginning of the end for them.

First of all, there is nowhere near enough room for Nokia in the crowded field of Android handset makers. Second, there is virtually no way to differentiate your product if you did, aside from yet another horrid OEM UI skin which gets in the way of OS updates. Third, there is very little profit in being an Android handset maker unless you have some hot, high end product. Most of the Android field is in a race to the bottom to see who can build the cheapest, crappiest Android phone with the most features for the money, i.e. loss leaders.

The bottom line is, there is nothing in it for Nokia. They would never be able to gain any significant marketshare against Samsung, HTC and Motorola.

If Nokia was ever going to go to Android, the time to do it would have been 3 or 4 years ago. Back then, Nokia could have had a shot at it with nice hardware and some kind of Nokia UI skin over Android. The opportunity has passed and honestly, I'm glad they let it because I like Nokia, but if Nokia had gone to Android, I'd probably be using an iPhone right now.

I think Nokia's former head of smartphones, Anssi Vanjoki, said it best. "Nokia going to Android would be like peeing in your pants for warmth in the winter."

In other words, the temporary "relief" would be quickly followed by worse consequences. If Nokia went to Android, it would be the beginning of the end, they would wind up being an also-ran and slowly sink and decline under the pressure from the Asian Android army who would always undercut them on price, steal their ideas and copy their designs relentlessly until no one even recognized the shell of a company that used to be Nokia.

At least with Windows Phone, Nokia has some chance to control their own destiny. They have a platform, which while NIH (Not Invented Here) is at least well-differentiated from the thousands of look-a-like Android crap phones on the market. Windows Phone 8 helps Nokia's phones stand out against the competition, which more than anything is the iPhone and other Android phones, not their fellow Windows Phones.

Nokia is good for Windows Phone because their unique design language is getting the platform attention it never would have had otherwise, and Windows Phone is good for Nokia because it gave them a next generation alternative platform, that unlike Symbian and Meego, actually has a good chance of survival.

Nokia still might not make it in the end, but I firmly believe there is solid reasoning to support why going with Windows Phone gave them their best possible chance. Android would have sank them and sticking to Meego and Symbian would have gotten them nowhere.

 

[dogfish54]

Let's face it -- the 920 is a specialty phone for people who don't mind exchanging weight and thickness for a OIS camera and lower contract price.

It's not really a "mainstream" phone.

You sound like Paul Thurrott here. Paul (and other tech journalists) prefer slimmer form factors. Others prefer a more durable device packed with features. The reality is that the 8X won't come even close to the sales of the 920. The 8X is a fine phone, but it's a nice device. Thurrott, I am sure, will be confused by this (lack of actual sales vs the 920)

The reality is that carrier exclusives work for phones that don't have established demand. The SII and the iphone both were buily up with carrier exclusives and then 'broke free' once they were popular enough for the carriers to be competing with each other to sell the device. Thurrott, HTC and others missed this point, luckily Nokia did not.

Now, on the other note of supply vs demand - yeah, that was messed up, I'm not sure who to blame, but a late final OS build can't have helped (when they were trying to build initial supply).

*Rant Alert*

Thurrott is mad because Nokia won't send him a review unit, he is also mad because Microsoft won't respond to his questions. He claims it's because he speaks out against the companies for his readers, but he is too much like some other journalists that look to much to how a device or software fits them personally. Take Myriam Joire from Engadget, she just finished an hour long rant (podcast) on how Google services are critical to companies. That 'everyone uses Google Docs at work' and Exchange active sync really isn't important any more. Maybe 3-5 years from now she'll be right, but it's far from that case now. Why does she think that ? ... because HER work uses Google docs, HER work uses gmail. How many other companies jumped to the Google ecosystem 3%,maybe?. It's just not reality. So that word attachment I get in my outlook client, do I open that with google docs with a double-click? What about on my ipad? This stuff is just not there yet. These are all opinions, none of them are right

*End of Rant*

 

[brmiller1976]

I think MOST people prefer thin and light to propellerhead specs. iPhone sales back me up here.

 

[crystal_planet]

I think MOST people prefer thin and light to propellerhead specs. iPhone sales back me up here.

I don't think that's true. Keep the weight on the iPhone 5 to approach 4S levels and will still sell. Because it's an iPhone. People love the 920, despite it's weight. It's a great phone.

 

[Reflexx]

I think MOST people prefer thin and light to propellerhead specs. iPhone sales back me up here.

Not necessarily.

Otherwise we could say that most people prefer Apple Maps because when that was the only mapping solution on the iPhone, sales were amazing.

 

[Reflexx]

Here is my very simply, and very effective refute to Paul Thurott's point:
Microsoft had to ship overstock of Surface to Best Buy at least 1month early to try and sell the extra devices they could not.

Therefore, Surface did not sell as well as Microsoft projected. And this is what we are going to entrust windows phone with?

Nokia, IMO, is firing all cylinders. Lets just hope they have enough assets to remain in the game long enough to turn it around completely.

I think you may have the reason for the expanded Surface availability wrong.

Surface was only at MS stores to give OEMs the opportunity to promote and sell their RT tablets in other retail outlets.

OEMs didn't end up pushing their RT tablets, so MS is bringing in Surface.

 

[Reflexx]

You sound like Paul Thurrott here. Paul (and other tech journalists) prefer slimmer form factors. Others prefer a more durable device packed with features. The reality is that the 8X won't come even close to the sales of the 920. The 8X is a fine phone, but it's a nice device. Thurrott, I am sure, will be confused by this (lack of actual sales vs the 920)

The reality is that carrier exclusives work for phones that don't have established demand. The SII and the iphone both were buily up with carrier exclusives and then 'broke free' once they were popular enough for the carriers to be competing with each other to sell the device. Thurrott, HTC and others missed this point, luckily Nokia did not.

Now, on the other note of supply vs demand - yeah, that was messed up, I'm not sure who to blame, but a late final OS build can't have helped (when they were trying to build initial supply).

*Rant Alert*

Thurrott is mad because Nokia won't send him a review unit, he is also mad because Microsoft won't respond to his questions. He claims it's because he speaks out against the companies for his readers, but he is too much like some other journalists that look to much to how a device or software fits them personally. Take Myriam Joire from Engadget, she just finished an hour long rant (podcast) on how Google services are critical to companies. That 'everyone uses Google Docs at work' and Exchange active sync really isn't important any more. Maybe 3-5 years from now she'll be right, but it's far from that case now. Why does she think that ? ... because HER work uses Google docs, HER work uses gmail. How many other companies jumped to the Google ecosystem 3%,maybe?. It's just not reality. So that word attachment I get in my outlook client, do I open that with google docs with a double-click? What about on my ipad? This stuff is just not there yet. These are all opinions, none of them are right

*End of Rant*

Thurrot broke an embargo some time back. That's why MS won't give him some of the inside info that they give to other tech journalists. In their mind, they trusted him before and he broke that trust.

I wwouldn'tbe surprised if that's why Nokia won't send him stuff.

Since he has a rather high opinion of the value of his own influence, it's not far fetched to believe that he may feel slighted.

 

[AngryNil]

The 920 is no specialty phone. No one has a problem with 11mm thickness, if they did all their pockets would have burst back in the days of the iPhone 3GS (oh yeah, that thing women still carry with no issue today).

 

[brmiller1976]

Name the best selling QWERTY smartphone on the market, and compare it to iPhone / Galaxy sales. I love physical keyboards too, I've suggested for Microsoft to create such a device in other threads. But it won't be a runaway success and won't be the device that will spark the adoption of Windows Phone 8.

You've actually hit on why WP isn't doing well.

People who want an iPhone or Android will buy one of those two devices.

And Windows Phone? We shouldn't be too cocky.

You challenge OP to name the best-selling keyboard-based phone... that would be the BlackBerry 7 lineup. And even though it's long-in-the-tooth, RIM sold more BlackBerry phones in this past quarter alone than Nokia has sold Windows Phones since the beginning of its support for them.

So we'd do well to be humble and responsive to user needs, rather than tell users what they "don't need." After all, if RIM maintains the keyboard-lover crowd and Windows doesn't cater to it (nor succeed in winning over significant numbers of Samsung and Apple users), it will be in fourth place and out of the game.

 

[brmiller1976]

The 920 is no specialty phone. No one has a problem with 11mm thickness, if they did all their pockets would have burst back in the days of the iPhone 3GS (oh yeah, that thing women still carry with no issue today).

The 3GS was almost four years ago. Time has marched on.

Saying that phones shouldn't be competitive with the devices of today in form factor due to the success of a device from four generations ago is a bit like saying "nobody needs an ultra-book, just look at how well the Kaypro luggable did."

 

[thegoodfight]

You challenge OP to name the best-selling keyboard-based phone... that would be the BlackBerry 7 lineup. And even though it's long-in-the-tooth, RIM sold more BlackBerry phones in this past quarter alone than Nokia has sold Windows Phones since the beginning of its support for them.

So we'd do well to be humble and responsive to user needs, rather than tell users what they "don't need." After all, if RIM maintains the keyboard-lover crowd and Windows doesn't cater to it (nor succeed in winning over significant numbers of Samsung and Apple users), it will be in fourth place and out of the game.

Hah, you must be the "Paul Thurrott" of these forums around here. Did Microsoft do something to make you feel slighted, like how Thurrott feels? Winning Guy hit the nail on the head. Thurrott once upon a time was a respected Microsoft enthusiast blogger who posted lots of insider info. Then one day, he messed up and broke an embargo, and Microsoft basically cut ties with him. Since then, he's been sounding more and more delusional by the day. He seems very bitter about no longer getting insider info, and there's a strong chance Nokia doesn't want to be associated with him either. That would explain his almost-delusional bias towards HTC, and his almost-extreme hate towards Nokia.

Sorry, your statement about Blackberry sales versus Lumia sales is a flat out LIE. You must be as delusional as Thurrott if you actually believe that statement. Just by that statement alone, I can already ascertain that your forum posts really can't be taken too seriously.

RIM shipped 6.9 million Blackberries in the past quarter. Lumia sales started in Q4 2011. From then until the latest past quarter, Nokia has sold over 10 million Lumia devices. That's also not counting the millions of Symbian handsets that Nokia sold, and also doesn't count the higher end Asha phones introduced last quarter which are categorized as smartphones.

RIM's "keyboard" phone isn't coming to market until Q2 2013, and most estimates put the arrival at April/May ... at the earliest. You got one thing right; most people buy Blackberries for the keyboard. So who will buy the Z10, the first new model that comes out, being the all-touch model? Rhetorical question which I will answer ... the answer is almost no one. How well did the Torch 9860 do sales-wise? It was the first all-touch Blackberry, and sales were abysmal. Most people who still possess any interest in Blackberry won't care about the new all-touch model, they will wait until the keyboard model comes out.

Will RIM survive from now until then? Who knows. From now until April/May is a LONG time in the mobile industry, and Nokia will have plenty of announcements and releases between now and then.