Paul Thurott: Nokia is circling the drain. Surface Phone only hope.

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brmiller1976

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RIM also had an adjusted net loss.

RIM had an operating profit and posted a net profit due to tax benefits (refunds for pre-paid taxes).

That money RIM "generated" will quickly disappear, as per RIM's CEO himself saying they will burn through all of that money and more for marketing and inventory build-up of the first BB10 device.

Incorrect. RIM expects to be at break-even or cash-flow-positive even in its launch quarter. It's all in the 10-K.

If that Z10 device fails to sell well, RIM is in deep trouble.

RIM only needs mild sales of the Z10 to maintain profitability and positive cash flow. The same is NOT true for Nokia. Period.

As for Nokia, they did achieve an underlying profit for Q3. Adjusted for restructuring write-down costs, Nokia did achieve a 78 million Euro profit in Q3. Plus, Nokia's cash and assets position is much, much stronger than RIM's.

You're joking, right? Nokia is cash-flow negative, and recently completed a sub-prime bond offering to raise money. The company is deep in debt.

RIM, in contrast, has no debt. If it needs cash, it's got assets galore to use to secure the debt before needing to issue sub-prime bonds.


Getting a bit obsessed, aren't we? :)

Most of Nokia's "losses" are accounting-related restructuring write-downs.

ROFL. Keep drinking that KoolAid. I hope it's tasty!

The last time I saw something this funny was back in the 1990s, when people insisted that Apple's losses weren't really losses, and that Apple could go on forever with the results it was posting in '96 and '97. It was rescued from failure by a $150 million payment from Microsoft, a brutal slashdown by Jobs, and the iMac. Even Jobs acknowledged that Apple, upon his takeover, was 90 days from bankruptcy.

From here on out I am simply going to ignore you, as that would be a very wise decision.

Poke your head in the sand, I'm not all that concerned. It's clear that you're not really interested in understanding the real situation that we find our ecosystem in... it's all magical thinking for you.
 

brmiller1976

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- Most women don't carry their phones in their trouser pockets. That's what handbags are for.

Maybe in your part of the world. Here, it's very common.

- In some parts of the world, BB doesn't sell many phones except to some people. Just look at Europe except the UK. You won't see many BB's in France, Germany, Austria, Spain and so on.

Doesn't matter. They just have to sell enough to be profitable and cash-flow-positive. Same with Nokia.
- It remains to be seen if Nokia will manage a turnaround. My gut feeling tells me they will be successful in some markets in time because they differenate themselves enough from the pack. At the same time, I admit I could be wrong as I, like all analysts and clairvoyants, do not possess a time machine to travel to the future and find proof for my words.

I'd like to see Nokia succeed, but success is far from assured. And a Nokia failure would be disastrous for Windows Phone... it would not recover. Tying the success of the ecosystem to a single player that was already in financial distress wasn't Microsoft's smartest move.

It's a bit like making Gateway, circa 2001, the "exclusive launch partner for Windows XP. Yes, Gateway was big at the time, but it ended up failing and the brand got acquired by Acer. It's hardly relevant today.

The big key is to get together with tomorrow's winner, not yesterday's winner and tomorrow's struggler.
 

Luminatic

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Bmiller: neither your nor m'y part if the world = the rest of the world. I Just wanted to correct the misconception that if one brand Is widespread in my part of the world, it must be everywhere. Some people seem to think this way, and I find this rather one-sided and far away from the truth.
 

brmiller1976

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And that's the problem.

Just criticize Nokia on the WP boards, and the claws come out... mostly because Nokia = Windows Phone (or at least that's the impression sent to the rest of the world).

The original idea behind WP was to be a multi-OEM phone... the Windows model for PCs brought to phones. Alas, Google has borrowed that business model and rather than stick with it and push forward faster with innovation, Microsoft has chosen to make it the Nokia Show (with a cameo by HTC, and a "present vote" by Samsung). Many of the other WP OEMs have simply left, like Dell and LG, with no effort by MS to keep them or support them.

Back in 2010, if an OEM failed or pulled out (as LG later would), it didn't really matter. But in 2013, if Nokia or HTC fail or pull out of the WP market, it will be a body blow for the platform -- especially Nokia.
 

anon(1019781)

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The original idea behind WP was to be a multi-OEM phone... the Windows model for PCs brought to phones. Alas, Google has borrowed that business model and rather than stick with it and push forward faster with innovation, Microsoft has chosen to make it the Nokia Show (with a cameo by HTC, and a "present vote" by Samsung). Many of the other WP OEMs have simply left, like Dell and LG, with no effort by MS to keep them or support them.
Personally, I think the less phones, the better. Having too many OEMs and phones just ruins in the experience and is really just a waste of resources. The Surface phone will and must definitely happen because it could be a "Nexus" type of device that Microsoft may be readying to free people from the carriers.

Just imagine, a Surface phone for 400 bucks. Unlocked. Sold directly by Microsoft. It would be a pretty big seller.
 

dogfish54

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Personally, I think the less phones, the better. Having too many OEMs and phones just ruins in the experience and is really just a waste of resources. The Surface phone will and must definitely happen because it could be a "Nexus" type of device that Microsoft may be readying to free people from the carriers.

Just imagine, a Surface phone for 400 bucks. Unlocked. Sold directly by Microsoft. It would be a pretty big seller.

Moving away from this being the blackberry forum for a second - I think the point that is being missed that Windows phone currently can't financially support several dedicated OEM's. OEM's are also like carriers, they want their own points of difference e.g mods, crapware, skins etc. So we'll either get some things similar to what we are getting from HTC and Samsung, or more of what we are getting from Nokia.

If Microsoft actually supported Nokia, they may have a better chance of returning to profitability more quickly. Competition is healthy, but trying to compete with Microsoft on Windows phone, will hurt Nokia and will definitely drive Samsung out of the platform. HTC are doing fine right now ... but I think they are getting more and more killed by Samsung. We'll see.
 

socialcarpet

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You've actually hit on why WP isn't doing well.

People who want an iPhone or Android will buy one of those two devices.

And Windows Phone? We shouldn't be too cocky.

You challenge OP to name the best-selling keyboard-based phone... that would be the BlackBerry 7 lineup. And even though it's long-in-the-tooth, RIM sold more BlackBerry phones in this past quarter alone than Nokia has sold Windows Phones since the beginning of its support for them.

So we'd do well to be humble and responsive to user needs, rather than tell users what they "don't need." After all, if RIM maintains the keyboard-lover crowd and Windows doesn't cater to it (nor succeed in winning over significant numbers of Samsung and Apple users), it will be in fourth place and out of the game.

Your logic is seriously flawed here. This is like suggesting the when the last buggy maker in town is about to go out of business, the smallest car maker had better start making buggies or their are going to go out of business too.

Keyboard phones, like the horse and buggy, are a DYING form factor that is going away. Period.

People will argue for it's practicality and its irreplaceability, just as I'm sure they did with the horse and buggy, but time marches on and it will be gone. Phones are getting thinner with larger and larger screens and screen keyboards are getting better and better. What does that tell you? Keyboard phones are already obsolete. Someone just forgot to tell RIM and their 55-60 yr old average customer base.
 

anon(1019781)

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Your logic is seriously flawed here. This is like suggesting the when the last buggy maker in town is about to go out of business, the smallest car maker had better start making buggies or their are going to go out of business too.

Keyboard phones, like the horse and buggy, are a DYING form factor that is going away. Period.

People will argue for it's practicality and its irreplaceability, just as I'm sure they did with the horse and buggy, but time marches on and it will be gone. Phones are getting thinner with larger and larger screens and screen keyboards are getting better and better. What does that tell you? Keyboard phones are already obsolete. Someone just forgot to tell RIM and their 55-60 yr old average customer base.
This sounds like typical "everything that is newer is always better" nonsense.

People still use physical keyboards at their computer and physical keyboards are still being made by Microsoft for the Surface. They will never really go away because people enjoy pressing buttons, which are still on the sides of the phone you are holding.

Sure, a screen keyboard has its many benefits and yes, its going to be the dominant way to type, but there's still a demand for physical keyboards and there's always going to be a demand for them as long as people are still using their fingers to enter text and not their minds.
 
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socialcarpet

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This sounds like typical "everything that is newer is always better" nonsense.

People still use physical keyboards at their computer and physical keyboards are still being made by Microsoft for the Surface. They will never really go away because people enjoy pressing buttons, which are still on the sides of the phone you are holding.

Sure, a screen keyboard has its many benefits and yes, its going to be the dominant way to type, but there's still a demand for physical keyboards and there's always going to be a demand for them as long as people are still using their fingers to enter text and not their minds.

I actually like phones with physical keyboards, and I would seriously consider a Windows Phone with a nice slide out keyboard.

My point is simply that the trend in design is moving strongly away from this form factor, it adds more moving parts, points of failure, weight and bulk to a phone and the truth is that most people under 30 are accustomed to using a touchscreen keyboard. As the primarily older population who like thumb keyboards continue to age and move out of the workforce, there is going to be less and less demand for them.

Personally, I'm still a bit more accurate on a thumb keyboard than a touch keyboard, but the gap is narrowing with every new phone and it's not about what I like. I also don't like gigantic screens on phones like the Galaxy Note, but I recognize that is where things are headed.

Some people here have a hard time separating what THEY want and THEY like from what the majority prefers and what's actually best for most/most popular.
 

dogfish54

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I also like hardware keyboards, but the reality is there is just too much compromise (for me anyway). The slide-out means that you either have to turn the phone landscape to type or it flips out at the bottom, adds bulk and is not nearly as like as the BB-style keyboard. The problem with the BB-style keyboard is that it takes up half the screen, and to me is not even close to an acceptable compromise.
 

JerseySal

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Paul should have been circling the drain while attached to a napkin that his father used to wipe him up with...instead of sleeping with his mother.
 

anon(1019781)

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I also like hardware keyboards, but the reality is there is just too much compromise (for me anyway). The slide-out means that you either have to turn the phone landscape to type or it flips out at the bottom, adds bulk and is not nearly as like as the BB-style keyboard. The problem with the BB-style keyboard is that it takes up half the screen, and to me is not even close to an acceptable compromise.
Oh I agree, I prefer onscreen keyboards due to the dramatic drop in failure rates, but does a keyboard not fill up half the screen when you're typing? I know its ONLY when you're typing, but at least the people with physical keyboards still get the whole 4+ inch screen to view while typing, which could be a plus to some people.

Just trying to see it from their perspective. I don't see it as a bunch of people trying to stick to dated tech, but rather, an option that is better for some people.
 

Laura Knotek

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I actually like phones with physical keyboards, and I would seriously consider a Windows Phone with a nice slide out keyboard.

My point is simply that the trend in design is moving strongly away from this form factor, it adds more moving parts, points of failure, weight and bulk to a phone and the truth is that most people under 30 are accustomed to using a touchscreen keyboard. As the primarily older population who like thumb keyboards continue to age and move out of the workforce, there is going to be less and less demand for them.

Personally, I'm still a bit more accurate on a thumb keyboard than a touch keyboard, but the gap is narrowing with every new phone and it's not about what I like. I also don't like gigantic screens on phones like the Galaxy Note, but I recognize that is where things are headed.

Some people here have a hard time separating what THEY want and THEY like from what the majority prefers and what's actually best for most/most popular.

I believe that even older folks will prefer devices with large screens and touchscreen, rather than physical keypad. Tiny screens are not as easy to read when one is older. Viewing media will probably not be a feature that only young people enjoy. Reading books and watching movies are things that all generations like to do.
 

brmiller1976

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The thing that amuses me about the Google guys is, despite the supposed "irrelevance" of WP, they end up here all the time, spitting with rage at the critiques of that dreadful, dreadful OS. I'm not going over there to Androidland and sharing my viewpoint (which would probably be drowned out by threads titled "Another Android Virus Again -- How Do I Fix?" and "Malware Lifted My Bank Information And Now My Account Is Overdrawn -- What Should I Do?" or "Phone Bricked For The Seventh Time This Month -- Replace Again?") ;)
 

brmiller1976

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Keyboard phones, like the horse and buggy, are a DYING form factor that is going away. Period.

Keyboard phones from RIM alone are outselling Windows Phones this year, 4:1.

People will argue for it's practicality and its irreplaceability, just as I'm sure they did with the horse and buggy, but time marches on and it will be gone.

Sounds like what people say about Windows and PCs, too.

Frankly, there are lots of baloney memes out there that tech people accept uncritically. One is that "phones with keyboards are gone forever and nobody will buy them." Wrong. About 30 million will buy them from RIM this year alone.

The second is that "we're in a post-PC era, and smartphones and iPads will completely replace desktop and laptop PCs." Which is, frankly, about as laughable as the "keyboards are dead" meme.
 
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