Windows Phone 8. Does it even have a chance to succeed?

[brmiller1976]

I'm not sure if that was directed at me or not since I brought up BB10 in an earlier post, but I will respond anyway. I don't think Windows Phone is doomed because of BB10 at all.

I was being facetious, sorry (it's a core competency of mine).

I just figured I'd invoke a less likely route of terrible possibility in order to liven things up a bit in the negative nancy threads.

 

[brmiller1976]

Interesting. What was the sample size and data plan options of the people you did this on?

It was about 120 users split by marketshare across the four major US carriers, with a median smartphone plan.

The big users of apps were corporate users, who used Good or proprietary apps to access corporate resources.

The second largest category was social apps like Facebook.

The third largest was online banking apps from Citi, Chase, Bank of America, etc.

I'd imagine that since then, Instagram has become a big app as well, but still... people aren't really aggressively using apps. Those of us who are using apps regularly are outliers.

 

[iamtim]

This window of time is a gift, and MS should use it to their advantage.

I concur. I also think that Microsoft would be well to do some specific BB customer marketing; if they can capture BBs remaining market share before BB10 comes out (which would be a challenge, considering that most people still using BBs are die-hards) they'll be in a good spot as a strong, third option in the smartphone market.

...because, really, it would take a miracle to unseat iOS or Android.

 

[brmiller1976]

I remember when Android was at 1.3% marketshare, and Apple was dominant. The conventional wisdom of the day was that there was no way that Android would ever take over the market, yet they did.

(And no, the Verizon "Droid" campaign had little to do with it -- the vast majority of Android sales are outside the USA, where Verizon isn't a significant player).

Never say "never."

That said, I expect that WP will be around 10% of the market. Some will support it, some won't. Those who won't will lose my business.

I have a significant amount of savings and investment with a bank that told me they have no plans for a WP app (though they support iOS to an extreme degree and Android to a limited degree). I told my "relationship manager" that I was thinking of moving to another bank, and she was stunned. I said "I want an app for Windows Phone 8, and Chase offers one while you don't. Please tell that to your senior people and get things moving. A bank branch costs over $1 million to open and staff. A decent mobile app costs $150K to build. Are you really going to tell millions of WP users that you don't want their business and send them to Chase or B of A?"

We'll see if it makes a difference. Windows Phone users may not be the biggest population out there, but we are 14 million strong, with incomes and needs of our own, and ignoring us completely means that some competitors will simply profit disproportionately from our business.

 

[stephen_az]

Okay, let's put away our fan boy goggles and be as objective as possible about this. With Apple not being able to keep up with iphone 5 orders, the GS3 still selling strong, and the Nexus 4 selling out in minutes:

How well will Windows Phone 8 do this holiday season? Discuss.

I say not very well, with the vibes I feel for it in Canada at least.

I really don't see why people even bother with these sorts of posts. This is not an invitation to a legitimate discussion, it is an invitation to trolls and anti-trolls to rant. This is not a sprint, nor is it a marathon, nor is it a game, nor is it a war. It is business. If you want the largest market share it will be Android because you can shove it into anything and it will almost work. If you want the hottest device, it will be from Apple because that is how they have crafted their reputation(and they do make nice devices). There is, however, plenty of room in between and devices that unify experience across multiple platforms have a lot going for them given time and exposure. Of course, none of that works if people keep with the ****** lovefest and sky is falling hatefest mentalities. They are just phones. Use what works for you and don't waste time worrying about what someone else chooses to use.

BTW, as far as the devices you name go. I would suggest the following. First, it is not only the holiday season but also the time of year that Apple manipulates its data to make it look like their latest product is an even greater success than the last. That, however, doesn't add up in the real world when you consider their profits are down and their market share is just stable. Second, the GS3 has as many detractors as admirers and sells because it is a heavily discounted device for a "flagship" phone that is available through every carrier. Market saturation actually helps a lot. Third, the Nexus 4 draws a great deal of criticism from the Android user base and sold out due to manufacturing and supply issues, not because it is the fastest selling device on the market. There is also a certain irony to the fact that Google bought Motorola but does not use them to produce their supposed flagship Nexus line. A little realism, and willingness to stop trading business like it is either a game or the latest reality show, can go a long way....

 

[sentimentGX4]

I think Windows Phone 8 has a reasonable chance of success. It has the backing of Microsoft and there seems to be a reasonable amount of interest regarding the Lumia 920 (not only from WP Central but from non-techie sites that I frequent). Re-sizable live tiles have definitely evoked some consumer interest.

Also, there are already indications that a shared kernel with Windows RT has generated developer interest. While Windows RT is likely going to fail, developers are still interested in the Windows App Store since it exists on x86 devices as well. High profile apps such as Angry Birds Space and Microsoft's Reader have also already been ported over to WP8 due to its shared NT kernel. With the growing traction of the app store, it is only a matter of time before the apps in the Windows Phone ecosystem overtakes Android and iOS.

 

[12Danny123]

I agree with this. Wp8 does have Consumer Interest

 

[jjmurphy]

Enterprise side, MS will sell phones. They can be managed by endpoint manager. That alone will make any business that wants to be secure and is an MS shop go that way.
Consumer side...I hate to say it, but it is all apps. If you're last to get apps, and they're bad ports, no one is going to adopt your platform long term. I find it soooo frustrating. I would rather have not gotten WWF or DS. Get us what the next big things are day and date as other platforms. Angry Birds SW is a start. We need unity games, we need them now. We also need UE games. And as much as I don't use instagram, it's necessary immediately.

 

[TaliZorah]

Yes WP will succeed. There is plenty of room in the market for it. It may take a bit to take a big chunk but there are enough users to warrant it's existance.

 

[iamtim]

And as much as I don't use instagram, it's necessary immediately.

...and for as much as I tend to minimize the situation with WP8 apps, I agree with this post. The Facebook and Twitter apps are good enough for the common user, but the lack of an Instagram app could be a major factor.

Hey, do you guys know how much a hipster weighs? An Instagram!

Sorry, couldn't resist. Anyway, yeah, if Instagram isn't going to write a WP8 app themselves, Microsoft should approach them with intent to license the full API for an official-yet-Microsoft-authored app.

 

[jwinch2]

With the growing traction of the app store, it is only a matter of time before the apps in the Windows Phone ecosystem overtakes Android and iOS.

We would have to see WP gaining on Android and iOS at a rate of 3:1 for a few years before the apps in WP come close to overtaking eitherr one of them. There was a good article on WP Central several months ago showing the rate of app growth across platforms, and the dominance of Apple and Android was so overwhelming that it wasn't even a race. As I encouraged earlier, I am hopeful that Microsoft will strongly incentivize the developers of the top rated apps in each category on those two platforms to develop for WP.

 

[jwinch2]

I was being facetious, sorry (it's a core competency of mine).

I just figured I'd invoke a less likely route of terrible possibility in order to liven things up a bit in the negative nancy threads.

No worries. In all fairness though, BB does have a strong footprint still in the business world. If MS can convince some of them that their security is as strong and make it easy for IT people to manage, they could see adoption in business, which would be huge for the future of the platform.

 

[Ebaneeezor]

With Symbian dead, and BB market share hemorrhaging, WP should naturally take a default 10% share with little effort. I work in the DOD and already see the WP push as its a natural fit in the environment and Apple already has told the DOD, well, basically screw off we are not doing what you want. Don't forget how late Xbox was to the party, who rules that arena now? who's OS is the backbone of the world and most Government? Who owns the PC home market? who owns the Office software market? WP now compliments these key areas naturally and just needs some market maturity and awareness and it will be fine. Everything, in life, require two elements, time and pressure.

 

[socialcarpet]

We are all doomed! Windows Phone will be washed away by the unstoppable tidal wave of BlackBerry 10!

 

[socialcarpet]

People tend to want phones that resemble functionality and appearance to their home PCs, with win8 selling well now I expect WP8 to be the same based on this fact alone.

No they don't....yet.

But you're on the right track. Microsoft's goal is to demonstrate the appeal that prospect would hold. Very soon millions of people people will have Windows 8 PC's on their desk at home and suddenly Windows Phone's interface is going to make sense to them and look very familiar and friendly. Then we'll see what's up.

 

[TheDarKnight]

Windows Phone commercials should show more of what the device can do, not just some fancy people and their start screens. Everyone who I know who owns an iPhone or an Android was surprised and impressed with what my windows phone can do and how it does thing better that their phones, kinda like the smoked by windows phone campaign.

 

[brmiller1976]

The best way to convey the WP experience is to try it out. It's not something that you can show in an commercial (easily anyway).

That's why the pop-up stores and new MS stores are a good idea. They just need to put more phone stuff in there.

 

[dharmababa]

MS needs to put up a feedback program like Steam's Greenlight. Let people vote on ideas/functionality that they want the most and then provide it in the next update. Boom, you just suddenly solved 90% of peoples problem with Windows Phone.

There is a feedback program. It is available here:

http://windowsphone.uservoice.com/forums/101801-feature-suggestions