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08-25-2015 01:25 PM
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  1. Joe920's Avatar
    [deleted]
    Last edited by Joe920; 10-23-2015 at 10:50 AM.
    08-19-2015 06:58 AM
  2. Rich215's Avatar
    I would agree....and also not just those fruit phones of high cost will have sticker shock showings....but Samsung ones too!

    This will also cause a increase in the used phone market as well....shopping for a use phone in good shape will cost more now. It will be interesting to see how things play out through 2016.
    Kevin Rush, Joe920 and libra89 like this.
    08-19-2015 08:06 AM
  3. PepperdotNet's Avatar
    I can't be the only one to notice that the subsidized down-payment on an iPhone or Galaxy is more than it costs to buy a really good Windows phone outright.
    k72 and jobinthomas like this.
    08-19-2015 09:14 AM
  4. tgp's Avatar
    This move won't really change prices much. The main difference will be that the actual cost is more transparent, which might affect a few people's decisions (but probably not iPhone users, who pay the most). But overall, the difference in cost between a phone on contract, using Edge/Next, or buying outright isn't that much.

    Buying outright gives the option of using a prepaid carrier though, which can be cheaper. But if you're going through the carrier, which plenty of people still are, it won't make much difference.

    I don't think the carriers are going to make a move that will hurt their bottom line, do you? I guarantee you they are doing this because they believe it will increase profits, which means that somebody else is paying the price.
    theefman and Tom Snyder like this.
    08-19-2015 09:27 AM
  5. Musicman247's Avatar
    They're only separating the cost of the phone from the plan. They're still offering payment plans for the phone, and the payments are more than would add to the plan if it was subsidized. So yeah, they're just going to make more money off of this.
    Tom Snyder likes this.
    08-19-2015 10:37 AM
  6. worldspy99's Avatar
    I think in general it will finally get US mobile users to be in sync with the rest of the world. I think people will look at a cellphone purchase like any durable goods item and try and use it for as long as possible instead of a throwaway commodity....hopefully a bit less e-waste as well.
    08-19-2015 12:19 PM
  7. tgp's Avatar
    The big difference will be that the phone cost is going to be a highly visible and optional contribution to the price of people's cellphone plan. Previously it used to be "Hey, subsidy is already part of my plan, so I'd be a fool not to upgrade and get that $599 phone for $199", or "Hey, that Galaxy S5 is only $199". At least now people get to see the real MSRP.
    Yes I mentioned that the difference will be transparency of the phone's actual cost. I question though whether it will matter. iPhone users already know they are paying more, and don't care.

    If the options are a $599 iOS or Android phone and a $300 WP flagship, the choice might be easy.
    It might cause users who buy flagship Android phones to choose a cheaper one, but I don't think it'll cause a measurable platform shift. Android has plenty of high quality moderately priced mid range phones as well. At most it'll cause a Note user to buy a Moto X instead or something like that.

    Very curious what MS will do in the different market segments, and how the general public will respond.
    Same here!

    Even so, with the financing still available, the end result is pretty much what you get with a contract, again with the only difference being the visibility of the phone's cost.
    theefman, Joe920 and libra89 like this.
    08-19-2015 12:19 PM
  8. Joe920's Avatar
    It might cause users who buy flagship Android phones to choose a cheaper one, but I don't think it'll cause a measurable platform shift.
    You might be right here, but that doesn't stop me from hoping you're wrong! :) At least we'll have many consumers looking at the 'affordable phone segment', so even if the platform shift isn't massive, it should help a little. If "only" one in ten iOS users makes the switch to WP, that would mean almost a doubling of the US WP market share. Not quite sure whether to put a smiley or a sadface here!
    08-19-2015 12:45 PM
  9. tgp's Avatar
    Funny, this just came out today: The Triumph of the Cheap Phone

    Basically saying that cheap phones are getting a better look because of the disappearance of two year contracts, and the fact that cheap phones are getting good enough. Unfortunately they don't mention any Windows Phones, but the commenters take care of some of that.
    There's a lot of good stuff in there!

    Sent from whatever device I happen to be using today using Tapatalk
    Laura Knotek likes this.
    08-19-2015 08:10 PM
  10. jdhooghe's Avatar
    Just switched carriers to Verizon and after my experience with the 920 and seeing the continual degradation of each windows phone os from its predecessor, I am happy to pay more for a quality phone with quality software.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    Tom Snyder likes this.
    08-19-2015 10:59 PM
  11. worldspy99's Avatar
    Yes I mentioned that the difference will be transparency of the phone's actual cost. I question though whether it will matter. iPhone users already know they are paying more, and don't care.
    I think there are plenty of iPhone users who will be shocked to find the actual cost of the device and will just hold onto their current device a bit longer. A co-worker of mine asked me to put a screen protector on her cracked glass once she found out what she would have to pay for a new iPhone 6 since she does not want to ditch Verizon...
    08-20-2015 12:53 PM
  12. rhapdog's Avatar
    I also think people may start taking better care of their phones when they realize how much they cost.

    I also think those subsidies are part of what made iPhone so accessible and popular in the US.
    GrayW0lf, Joe920, libra89 and 5 others like this.
    08-20-2015 01:07 PM
  13. Visa Declined's Avatar
    They're only separating the cost of the phone from the plan. They're still offering payment plans for the phone
    This is exactly what T-Mobile has been doing for a while now, and phone prices haven't "shocked" the phone buying public in any way what so ever. You can still walk in and get an iPhone 6 with no money down, so nothing has changed at all.

    None of the big 4 U.S. carriers are going to require you to pay for your phone completely up front.
    tgp, libra89, Laura Knotek and 2 others like this.
    08-20-2015 01:39 PM
  14. tgp's Avatar
    This is exactly what T-Mobile has been doing for a while now, and phone prices haven't "shocked" the phone buying public in any way what so ever. You can still walk in and get an iPhone 6 with no money down, so nothing has changed at all.

    None of the big 4 U.S. carriers are going to require you to pay for your phone completely up front.
    This is what I believe too. T-Mobile has been doing it for awhile already. I don't think it's going to make a measurable difference in buying habits.
    Laura Knotek and wpguy like this.
    08-20-2015 01:43 PM
  15. Krystianpants's Avatar
    What may help windows phone is that companies who do windows 10 laptops/tablets and they also do android phones may decide to move to windows phone to have all their products unified. That way if someone buys a windows phone and are in the market for a laptop/tablet they may pick a similar brand to their phone due to good experience. With universal apps that would help out greatly. And if the OEMs do push it like crazy and you walk by a phone kiosk and see all these windows phones. You will think, hmm what are these. But if you have one hiding in the corner and pouting, no one will even care.
    08-20-2015 02:11 PM
  16. rhapdog's Avatar
    None of the big 4 U.S. carriers are going to require you to pay for your phone completely up front.
    Even if they did, they could always use their Visa. No, that's Declined. Perhaps American Express? Haha1

    Yes, people will still make a down payment and monthly payments, however, now the price of the phone will be "known" to the consumer. Whereas before, it was just, "Oh, you're on a contract. You can have this phone for $1 (or $99, or whatever)." The sheer number of people that didn't realize they were actually for it with their contract is ludicrous.

    Now people will see, "Oh, I'm paying $99, plus $59 per month for 2 years? Really?" It won't stop everyone from buying, but there are some people out there that will now say, "Okay, I'm going to shop around and see what I can find. It might be cheaper in the long run to pay one out on my Visa card at a 3rd party retailer, because will also double my warranty." Amazon.com, Best Buy, and others may see a slight uptick in phone sales from it in the long term.

    The Lumia 635 GoPhone was available for $49 at Walmart and on Amazon. At AT&T, the same GoPhone was $99.99. Why? Because AT&T needs to pay their store employees, etc. I learned from a Walmart manager that their cost on the 635 GoPhone was actually $35, so they made just under $15 per phone. Considering they don't have to train employees to help customers with the phones that they sell, they have a much lower overhead. I think a lot more people, when they realize they can save $25 per month purchasing a phone outright may start to consider less costly alternatives. By a lot more, I don't mean a majority, simply a lot more people than do now, simply because their eyes will be opened.

    When I explained how it all works to my Father-in-law, he and my mother-in-law went out and purchased no-contract phones on the spot, and they haven't been on contract since. He won't buy phone insurance either. "I pay less than $50 for a new phone, so why should I pay monthly for insurance that requires a $50 deductible when I can buy a new phone for the $50." He's right, too, at least for him.
    libra89, sahib lopez, k72 and 1 others like this.
    08-20-2015 02:14 PM
  17. Laura Knotek's Avatar
    What may help windows phone is that companies who do windows 10 laptops/tablets and they also do android phones may decide to move to windows phone to have all their products unified. That way if someone buys a windows phone and are in the market for a laptop/tablet they may pick a similar brand to their phone due to good experience. With universal apps that would help out greatly. And if the OEMs do push it like crazy and you walk by a phone kiosk and see all these windows phones. You will think, hmm what are these. But if you have one hiding in the corner and pouting, no one will even care.
    That would be nice but I don't think Lenovo, Sony, Samsung, Dell will be doing that soon.

    Dell got out of phones completely. Sony isn't doing well in phones or PCs. Samsung has Tizen.

    Lenovo might be the best bet.but they already said they're streamlining their phone division, not introducing more products.
    08-20-2015 02:18 PM
  18. Bill Sherman1's Avatar
    Windows needs more than just the loss of subsidies to make inroads into the market. They need a phone that works. They need to partner with a hardware vendor that wants to make quality and they need software that is reliable. My Android and Apple friends never receive notices to reboot their device. And they have never complained about missing a call because their device powered off.
    Full disclosure: I do not have any friends with Windows so maybe I just have a lemon. If so, it would seem a coincidence since the Windows computers that I work with have the same attributes.
    I wish that I did not hate Apple so much. Windows will lose until they learn how to win. That will take more than a few thousand layoffs at Nokia.
    08-20-2015 07:48 PM
  19. gordonfink's Avatar
    One area to get the shaft, at least with ATT, is their requirements to buy a more expensive data plan if you don't buy a phone through next.

    My daughter's iPhone 5 bit the dust pretty badly. When I went to change the screen the frame was so bent that I couldn't get the screen in. So, then I'm look at buying a new frame also. I'm $100 into rebuilding an iphone 5.

    I decided I would, for the first time in about 8 years, buy into a 2 year contract, and get her an iPhone 6. All's good on a net plan, but I wanted to buy it outright (at a reduced 2-yr contract). BY not using Next to make the purchase, they were going to require a new, more expensive data plan.

    My sensibilities would not allow me to lock into a 2 yr contract, and pay more than I pay now, which is plenty enough with 5 lines on my account.

    So, I bought the parts, and tomorrow her phone undergoes the Lazarus treatment.
    k72 likes this.
    08-20-2015 09:00 PM
  20. Keith Wallace's Avatar
    This is extremely misguided. Rumors have sat around for quite a bit that the high-end Lumias' off-contract prices should be right in-line with what the competition's flagships carry. At one point, it was even rumored that they could cost MORE than the iPhone 6. More importantly, this already existed and accomplished nothing.

    When the Lumia 920 came out, it was rocking the same chip as the Galaxy S III and was available for $100 on-contract. Only a couple of weeks after it launched, the 920 was down to $50 on-contract for Black Friday (as someone who bought in on November 9, I was actually able to get the $50 difference back). Oh, and buyers were getting the wireless charging plate for free. So, I paid $50 for my Lumia 920 AND the wireless charger. I think the Galaxy S III was $150 at the time, maybe even still $200. Basically, Nokia had put out a phone with the same chip, MUCH better optics, wireless charging, more storage, more color options, a $50 accessory for free, AND the 920 were $50-100 cheaper. What good did that do Windows Phone? It barely moved the needle, the platform stagnated for 2 years while the hardware was ignored, and the app market's stagnation followed suit.

    The only reason you might see cheaper Windows 10 Mobile flagships is because they'll be running inferior hardware. Samsung and Apple are expected to put out new devices around the same time with their newest and best chips, those being upgrades on chips that already outperformed the disappointing SD 810. Plus, we're allegedly only going to see carrier carry the 808-packing 950, with the 810's 950 XL possibly tucked away in the Microsoft Stores, making them low-visibility devices that will require greater upfront commitments from folks (the REAL sticker shock for phones comes when you buy that first flagship outright).

    I just don't see any actual logic or proof behind this thread. It's assumption that doesn't account for the fact that history has somewhat proven otherwise. We're just going to have ANOTHER Windows launch where apps are promised, thanks to the delayed app emulators.
    08-20-2015 09:50 PM
  21. Jas Holden's Avatar
    I think that I've seen one or two articles that say that the new MS Lumia flagship phones will more expensive than Apple and Samsung's best phones.

    If so, what is really needed is a phone that comes between the 640XL and the 950XL, or whatever it gets called. With a better screen than the 640XL, continuum and a few other upgrades and a cost around $400 USD.

    That type of phone might be attractive to businesses that upgrade to Win10.
    Prabaharan D likes this.
    08-20-2015 09:54 PM
  22. Visa Declined's Avatar
    Yes, people will still make a down payment and monthly payments, however, now the price of the phone will be "known" to the consumer.
    You don't have to make a "down payment" at T-Mobile to get a phone. And you're acting like people don't already know that an iPhone costs $600+ before they buy it. Everyone in the U.S. knows that Apple phones are expensive, nobody flinches, nobodies shocked.

    Whereas before, it was just, "Oh, you're on a contract. You can have this phone for $1 (or $99, or whatever)."
    You're not getting it, this is exactly the way it still works. You pick out a phone, they tell you how much you will pay monthly on it, and then they explain that if you terminate your contract, the money owed on the device is due immediately. Nothing has changed.

    Now people will see, "Oh, I'm paying $99, plus $59 per month for 2 years? Really?"
    A flagship phone a T-Mobile is about $20 bucks tacked onto your monthly bill, and they do not charge you interest on the device. You're making this out to be something that it's really not, unfortunately.

    It won't stop everyone from buying, but there are some people out there that will now say, "Okay, I'm going to shop around and see what I can find. It might be cheaper in the long run to pay one out on my Visa card at a 3rd party retailer, because will also double my warranty." Amazon.com, Best Buy, and others may see a slight uptick in phone sales from it in the long term.
    The overwhelming majority of Americans are going to continue buying their phones from their carrier, I promise you.
    08-20-2015 10:01 PM
  23. Keith Wallace's Avatar
    Good thing the thread title didn't start with "FACT: ".

    I think it's a given that many people will no longer "just get the next iPhone model" because it will be too obvious that it's expensive. If more people are looking for something else than their next iPhone, some of those will end up giving WP a look. How many I can't say. And second, the 'tiles' interface is gaining visibility with the tens of millions of Windows 10 users. So instead of that weird phone in the corner of the store, it will be that thing that looks the same as the home PC. Again, I don't know how much of an effect it will be. Maybe it will be great for WP (as I 'predict'), or maybe it will only be 'OK'. I doubt it will be 'bad' for WP, but I guess we'll find out soon enough!

    Some other things that are helping: project astoria (quick ports of Android apps) project islandwood (quick ports of iOS apps), universal Windows apps (same apps on desktop and WP; some devs that jump on the Win10 market will also enable the WP version of their app), visibility of Cortana. I think all these things help WP being taken seriously as an option by consumers. Lots of chess pieces in play, so in my mind these are exciting times!
    Again, most of this makes no sense. The iPhones really don't cost any more than the competition anymore. The flagships all pretty much start in the $600-650 range. The Lumia 920 was on-par with the competition (if not better) at launch. It was cheaper on-contract and off-contract. It didn't get the job done. My point is, you're basing your predictions on false assumptions. There's not going to be any sticker shock. People have been rolling with AT&T Next and Verizon Edge and T-Mobile Jump for a while. I know 4 people who have used it. 3 got iPhones, and one got a Lumia 1520 that he gave up for an Android-based One (M8). The tile familiarity's unlikely to matter, either. Windows 8 didn't sell like Microsoft hoped, but it was still on tens of millions of devices. If anything, the tile interface HURTS perception, in that respect, since people were so frustrated with Windows 8 (I wasn't). This is just some baseless speculation on the public perception of something.

    I already mentioned the Astoria and Islandwood mess as well. Microsoft's go-to move is to half-*** everything nowadays. For starters, we don't know how "quick" the porting will ACTUALLY be. It might be a lot easier than native coding, but not easy enough to get smaller teams to bother. The important issue, and it's what my first sentence here was alluding to, is that Microsoft's going to shove out an unfinished Windows 10 Mobile that doesn't even have Astoria ready. Instead, it's got an aimless "2016" release date, and Islandwood might be the same. It's what repeatedly irritates me about Microsoft, that they half-heartedly stagger the W10 launch across PC, mobile, and console, and none of them are even complete at their individual launches.

    Lastly, the Cortana thing. I don't see how it matters in the slightest. It's on iOS, Android, Windows, Windows Phone, and it's coming to Xbox. The visibility of Cortana doesn't matter because it's not exclusive to Windows. It's one of the things where Microsoft's short-sighted desire for visibility and profits is potentially going to hurt its long-term mobile efforts. They touted these special features on the platform, sent them out to the competing platforms, and now there's not much to entice people to switch. It's not going to be hardware prices, because they'll either be the same or be cheaper because of lesser parts (like the SD 808). It's not going to be app availability, at least not for a long time. It's not going to be the Microsoft app suite, because Microsoft shoved it all onto Android and iOS.

    The sad fact is that Microsoft's going into its fifth year with the tiled interface. It's great when you experience it, but not many people have been given a real reason to try it. Updated weather and messages on the home screen isn't worth losing hundreds, even thousands, in paid apps. Oh, and don't forget how Microsoft keeps aiming to take steps back on W10, like with its nasty mail and music. There are times I love my Windows Phone, but then there are times I want to walk to Redmond and punch every member of their music team in the face, because Groove Music is worse than the last Xbox Music app, which was worse than the first Xbox Music app, which was worse than Zune.
    Kram Sacul likes this.
    08-20-2015 10:37 PM
  24. tgp's Avatar
    You pick out a phone, they tell you how much you will pay monthly on it, and then they explain that if you terminate your contract, the money owed on the device is due immediately. Nothing has changed.
    Exactly, and this is pretty much how it works on contract, especially after the carriers started prorating the ETF. Even if you wanted to buy a phone outright, for some flagships it was actually cheaper to sign a new 2 year contract, get the subsidized phone, cancel the contract, and pay the EFT, than to buy the phone outright. As long as consumers are going to continue walking into carrier stores, which I'm quite certain they will, they will not save any money this way.

    As much as your entire post goes against how things "should" work, I agree with you 100% that this is how the carriers' plan changes will spin out. I do not think that habits are going to change at all, at least not measurably.
    08-20-2015 10:39 PM
  25. AndyM72's Avatar
    I thought the ruse the US carriers were doing, was charging the same monthly service charge (including subsidy), and the same up front cost, for both midrange and high end cost phones? Which is what drove US consumers to the high end, the likes of the iPhone, because it was seen as a better deal?
    rhapdog likes this.
    08-20-2015 11:07 PM
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