This has come up in bits and pieces in other threads like "What if MS stops selling high end hardware?" or "What is Nokia becomes the only WP manufacturer?", so I thought I would take what we know from history, add what we have heard in rumors, add a little what may be to come, and half-bake it at 430 degrees and see what it looks like to everyone else.
I am not shy in saying this: 2014 has been a crap year for our favorite OS. A huge drop in sales and sales were small to start with. Nokia in complete flux. There are still people who say the release and support of Microsoft services to iOS and Android are better and show a lack of support for WP and doubt the dedication to WP. Throw in some ugliness between Samsung and MS, Huawei dropping WP (oh, sorry- they have put WP devices "on hold". My bad.). Very little rumors of top end devices coming this winter.
Let us face it.... this has been a bad year and as far as mobile goes, it cannot get over fast enough.
However, I will say that we need to look at what WP offers MS. Then we can throw some ideas as to what the future holds.
Yes, Mobile versions of MS products certainly seem better on the Android and iOS offerings. But, I submit this is a good thing. Why? As Windows 9 comes out this year and WP9 comes out next year, the play time will be over. There can be no more "not good enough, still developing" or "just wait until NEXT update" versions of Windows or WP. What is more, Mr. Nadella has shown one thing since becoming CEO: He is not accepting excuses. WP dropping sales percentage may be a blessing in disguise: When these versions come out, the Skype, Office, Maps, and all other integrations as well as tools will be ready for primetime. WP cannot live without being on par with Android and iOS.
Yes, there has been sluggish phone development this year, but with no licensing charge, there is very little reason for OEMs to not give WP another shot. With Nokia handset development now under MS, there seems to be a group back to the "only Nokia will make handsets" due to bad sales. I feel we have less to worry about in that then we think due to MS ace in the hole: Patent agreements coming to MS from OEMs using Android. MS can offer cut rate style agreements in exchange for developing WP devices. I have always thought that these patent agreements have paid for the development of WP anyways.
So, how do I see the next 18-24 months shaking out? I see this breaking down this way:
-Nokia devices become mid-range to low-range offerings. What has been the most successful WP lines? The cheaper, entry level and mid-range devices. I am sorry- neither iOS or Android can compete with the smoothness of WP on these devices. They can match build quality and hardware, but over the life of these devices, WP just runs better and eat less battery. MS will need to show a profit on this purchase, and these devices are the way to do that.
-The sales of these devices will hopefully push WP to a decent percentage again, and developers will still be encouraged to build apps and support the apps on the Store. There isn't a chance WP catches up to Android and iOS, but it doesn't need to. Half a million- 750,000 apps is the number that Android had when it took off and passed iOS even though Apple had more in their store. WP needs that number of GOOD APPS to be able to kill this argument once and for all.
-MS will show that the HTC ONE (M8) for Windows is the way to go for high end devices. OEMs already have these high end devices being pumped out for Android. By removing the fees and hardware restrictions, releasing these devices as the high end WP's offer a small investment with a nice opportunity for a good return. If MS can help with promotion, then OEMs will have a back up for Android that just doesn't exist for them right now.
I still see WP breaking that mythical 10% sales barrier by 2016-2017. That will be more then enough sales to keep WP growth strong and make it profitable. It will give MS it's own OS to build a loyal following to it's services and cloud tools. It will give OEMs and carriers an out from Android and iOS owning the market.
I hope I am right. I have already seen the death of one OS I loved- WebOS- I do not want to see the death of another. As I truly feel BlackBerry may no longer in a position to truly challenge, WP is the only OS on the market right now in a position to offer an option.
WP will not recover from another 2014. So, MS will not allow it to have one.
My humble opinion.
I am not shy in saying this: 2014 has been a crap year for our favorite OS. A huge drop in sales and sales were small to start with. Nokia in complete flux. There are still people who say the release and support of Microsoft services to iOS and Android are better and show a lack of support for WP and doubt the dedication to WP. Throw in some ugliness between Samsung and MS, Huawei dropping WP (oh, sorry- they have put WP devices "on hold". My bad.). Very little rumors of top end devices coming this winter.
Let us face it.... this has been a bad year and as far as mobile goes, it cannot get over fast enough.
However, I will say that we need to look at what WP offers MS. Then we can throw some ideas as to what the future holds.
Yes, Mobile versions of MS products certainly seem better on the Android and iOS offerings. But, I submit this is a good thing. Why? As Windows 9 comes out this year and WP9 comes out next year, the play time will be over. There can be no more "not good enough, still developing" or "just wait until NEXT update" versions of Windows or WP. What is more, Mr. Nadella has shown one thing since becoming CEO: He is not accepting excuses. WP dropping sales percentage may be a blessing in disguise: When these versions come out, the Skype, Office, Maps, and all other integrations as well as tools will be ready for primetime. WP cannot live without being on par with Android and iOS.
Yes, there has been sluggish phone development this year, but with no licensing charge, there is very little reason for OEMs to not give WP another shot. With Nokia handset development now under MS, there seems to be a group back to the "only Nokia will make handsets" due to bad sales. I feel we have less to worry about in that then we think due to MS ace in the hole: Patent agreements coming to MS from OEMs using Android. MS can offer cut rate style agreements in exchange for developing WP devices. I have always thought that these patent agreements have paid for the development of WP anyways.
So, how do I see the next 18-24 months shaking out? I see this breaking down this way:
-Nokia devices become mid-range to low-range offerings. What has been the most successful WP lines? The cheaper, entry level and mid-range devices. I am sorry- neither iOS or Android can compete with the smoothness of WP on these devices. They can match build quality and hardware, but over the life of these devices, WP just runs better and eat less battery. MS will need to show a profit on this purchase, and these devices are the way to do that.
-The sales of these devices will hopefully push WP to a decent percentage again, and developers will still be encouraged to build apps and support the apps on the Store. There isn't a chance WP catches up to Android and iOS, but it doesn't need to. Half a million- 750,000 apps is the number that Android had when it took off and passed iOS even though Apple had more in their store. WP needs that number of GOOD APPS to be able to kill this argument once and for all.
-MS will show that the HTC ONE (M8) for Windows is the way to go for high end devices. OEMs already have these high end devices being pumped out for Android. By removing the fees and hardware restrictions, releasing these devices as the high end WP's offer a small investment with a nice opportunity for a good return. If MS can help with promotion, then OEMs will have a back up for Android that just doesn't exist for them right now.
I still see WP breaking that mythical 10% sales barrier by 2016-2017. That will be more then enough sales to keep WP growth strong and make it profitable. It will give MS it's own OS to build a loyal following to it's services and cloud tools. It will give OEMs and carriers an out from Android and iOS owning the market.
I hope I am right. I have already seen the death of one OS I loved- WebOS- I do not want to see the death of another. As I truly feel BlackBerry may no longer in a position to truly challenge, WP is the only OS on the market right now in a position to offer an option.
WP will not recover from another 2014. So, MS will not allow it to have one.
My humble opinion.