Apollo: Logic Tells You What Microsoft Won't

[J4rrod]

As I was sitting here yesterday, getting excited about the "confirmation" of all Windows Phone devices getting Apollo, then worrying about the conflicting article that said that current Windows Phone devices will not get Apollo, my mind happened to stumble upon something that few people consider when rumors, like these, begin to circulate around international corporations and their future plans for their products: logic.

Let me put this as simple as I can. Companies want to succeed. Microsoft is a company. Therefore, Microsoft wants to succeed. Success, in the world of technology, in this day and age, is measured by one thing: relevance. Relevance is a good indicator of sales. Relevance is what seperates the great companies from the mediocre.

If you're a varied technology company today, such as Microsoft, Apple, Samsung, etc., it becomes increasingly difficult to stay relevant because of how fast things change in this world (see: Kodak). However, there's one word that represents where every single piece of technology is moving towards today: mobile. Phones, tablets, Ultrabooks, smartwatches, etc. In order to stay relevant today, you have to make excellent mobile products, and support these products as long as humanly possible.

Microsoft knows this. It's very apparent by what they did with Windows Phone a couple years ago, and what they're currently doing with Windows 8.

I think we can all agree on one thing here: Windows Phone is the single most important things to Microsoft right now. Xbox will not fail; it can't. Windows 8 will not fail; it can't. Windows Phone, on the other hand, can fail, especially when you take into consideration the likes of iOS and Android and their current hold on the market. The money Microsoft makes from Xbox and Windows 8 will go towards supporting Windows Phone for a large part, you can bet on that; because if Windows Phone fails, Microsoft's ecosystem is destroyed. The "three screens" strategy is dead. Microsoft simply cannot be taken seriously without a mobile phone OS. It just won't happen. If Windows Phone fails, Microsoft will go back to just a name only associated with an office suite and a computer operating system, nothing more. They will not become a "great" company that many people claim they "must have" without Windows Phone.

Take all of that in just for a minute.

Now, let's go back to the original question: "Will all Windows Phone devices receive the Apollo update?"

While I can't say "of course all Windows Phone devices will receive Apollo!," what I can say is this: "No Windows Phone will go without Apollo." Yes, there's a huge difference between those two statements.

It wouldn't matter if all Apollo brougt to the table was orientation lock, the sheer fact that all Windows Phone devices would not get the latest update (because of Microsoft's failure to deliver, not the carriers) would turn off enough people not just to Windows Phone, but Microsoft as a whole, that sales would go way down (and not just in the Windows Phone department). That would be a huge, huge, huge mistake. It would say so much about Microsoft and their inability to support early adopters, especially considering how iOS 5 is available for the 3GS. So can you imagine what would happen if Apollo was a huge update, which it will be, and this happened? Can you imagine the uproar? Do you think Microsoft doesn't realize this?

The real question everyone should be asking isn't "Will all Windows Phone devices receive Apollo?," but "Will all Windows Phone devices receive the same version of Apollo?" That's the real question, ladies and gentlemen. And I'm thinking the answer to that question is "no." However, does that bother me? Not in the least. The current kernel of Windows Phone, in my opinion, is not suited to support everything that Apollo needs to have to maintain Windows Phone's relevance, so I'm perfectly fine with next-generation devices receiving a different, and better, version of Apollo than my Focus S will, because I know that that decision is for the better of Windows Phone. But mark my words, my Focus S, and your Lumia/Venue Pro/Titan/Surround/Arrive/Radar/etc. will receive an Apollo update, even if Microsoft has to write an entire different update for the current kernel.

The problem is, is it almost seems like people assume the folks at Redmond are morons, and have no idea what the people want. Rest assured this is not the case. Microsoft is a successful company, and they did not get this way because of idiocy. There are real people there, who are extremely intelligent, and they know what we want. They know what they must do.

Just my two cents.

-Jarrod

 

[bear_lx]

agreed, +1. nicely put, thanks for the explination. we are indeed a spoiled technological world, constantly evolving.

 

[shlomo80]

Indeed. There's no guarantee but not bringing out an update for the first-gen phones which will only then be ~2 years old (i.e. within Apple's refresh period), let alone the likes of the Lumias will kill any hope that MS has for WP7 - no-one will touch it with a barge pole after that.

The thing though that's hurting Microsoft's rep right now is that various Microsoft-related people are putting out contradicting information. Either come out in the (reasonable) open or zip it up totally like Apple - MS seems to be trying especially hard to be emulating their modus operandi recently, but it just won't work in MS corporate culture. MS are best off being realistic and keeping us drip fed carefully instead of trying to lock down info and looking like indecisive asses.

 

[bear_lx]

i would... like i said in another post, android does this all the time

 

[canesfan625]

The only thing that should potentially stand in the way of 1st Gen is drivers. I'm more worried about Sprint trying some funny business than if the Arrive will get apollo. There is no technical reason for it not to in terms of hardware.

 

[mparker]

Apple alienated both customers and developers multiple times, when they switched from Motorola 68000 to PowerPC to x86, and when they switched from OS9 to OSX. Huge swathes of applications and customers were abandoned without mercy. Yet Apple is still successful.

Microsoft abandoned all of their Windows Mobile customers and developers when they came out with WP7. While WP7 can hardly be considered successful, this also means that the relative pain of abandoning WP7 for WP8 is relatively minor compared to the pain of abandoning Windows Mobile. If it's necessary to do this in order to pursue their dream of Win 8 everywhere, to pursue their push out of their traditional desktops into the mobile market in a fight for their survival, I'm not sure why this would give them pause. For the first time in a very long time Microsoft has serious competition, and is in a fight for their life. Now is not the time for sentimentality.

 

[J4rrod]

Apple alienated both customers and developers multiple times, when they switched from Motorola 68000 to PowerPC to x86, and when they switched from OS9 to OSX. Huge swathes of applications and customers were abandoned without mercy. Yet Apple is still successful.

Microsoft abandoned all of their Windows Mobile customers and developers when they came out with WP7. While WP7 can hardly be considered successful, this also means that the relative pain of abandoning WP7 for WP8 is relatively minor compared to the pain of abandoning Windows Mobile. If it's necessary to do this in order to pursue their dream of Win 8 everywhere, to pursue their push out of their traditional desktops into the mobile market in a fight for their survival, I'm not sure why this would give them pause. For the first time in a very long time Microsoft has serious competition, and is in a fight for their life. Now is not the time for sentimentality.

Those were different times. Can you imagine if Apple told all iPhone 4S users they weren't getting iOS6?

Windows Mobile was a completely different story. They didn't stop updating it, they literally killed it, because it was losing market share fast and they had nothing to lose. This is much, much different.

And did you read the entire post? I said that all Windows Phone may not get the same version of Apollo, but we will all get a version of it.

 

[mparker]

Those were different times. Can you imagine if Apple told all iPhone 4S users they weren't getting iOS6?

It was only a few years ago.

Windows Mobile was a completely different story. They didn't stop updating it, they literally killed it, because it was losing market share fast and they had nothing to lose. This is much, much different.

Sort of. I don't think WP7 will be killed, I think it will go on as the budgetphone OS while WP8 goes on as the superphone OS.

And did you read the entire post? I said that all Windows Phone may not get the same version of Apollo, but we will all get a version of it.

If the new devices get the full Apollo running on the Win 8 kernel while the WP7 phones get a few Apollo features on top of the old Win CE kernel, then how is that in any shape or form Apollo? I seriously doubt that Microsoft is going to write Apollo twice, once for Win8 and once for WinCE, so any resemblance between the two will be purely superficial.

 

[AzD]

I don't think WP7 will be killed, I think it will go on as the budgetphone OS while WP8 goes on as the superphone OS.

That smells like fragmentation to me...

 

[J4rrod]

It was only a few years ago.




Sort of. I don't think WP7 will be killed, I think it will go on as the budgetphone OS while WP8 goes on as the superphone OS.



If the new devices get the full Apollo running on the Win 8 kernel while the WP7 phones get a few Apollo features on top of the old Win CE kernel, then how is that in any shape or form Apollo? I seriously doubt that Microsoft is going to write Apollo twice, once for Win8 and once for WinCE, so any resemblance between the two will be purely superficial.

I didn't say it was a short time ago, I simply said those were different times.

And Microsoft would not have to write Apollo twice, if they go the route I'm thinking they're going. The only features current devices would not get would be ones due to hardware limitation. Pretty simple.

 

[cp2_4eva]

Too much thought put into something like this. If only people put that much thought into something more important. I mean, I agree, but dude you spend alot of time with that write up and I'm sure you spell checked it and made it politically correct and whatnot. Just too much thought and time put into it. I could understand you writing something like that if you were a developer or something tied closely to the smartphone business (other than being a consumer that will make or break the success of a smartphone) but really, does it matter that much? Either we get it or we don't. If we get it...hoooooraaaay. If we don't....is WP7 THAT BAD? Is waiting a while longer to have your current phones contract to expire going to set you back that much? I see too much time and effort being put into threads on this forums about whether or not we get Apollo. I know it's a forum and forums are for debates, but do you realize you just wrote a novel to paint a picture that most would have received in a simple paragraph? lol. Breathe, let it go, be happy, and be patient. Patience is a virtue. But more power to you if you don't have anything else to do. But like I said, I agree with you.

 

[mparker]

That smells like fragmentation to me...

Yes. But it's likely an acceptable level of fragmentation. Windows ran with this level of fragmentation for many years (Win95 etc vs Win NT etc)

And Microsoft would not have to write Apollo twice, if they go the route I'm thinking they're going. The only features current devices would not get would be ones due to hardware limitation. Pretty simple.

Not simple at all. The different kernels means the code for Win8 Apollo is going to be very different from a WinCE Apollo. Compare C code targeting Windows 95 vs C code targeting the Windows 8 API. For apps, the silverlight layer provides enough insulation from the details of the OS that Microsoft can provide a compatibility layer for Win8 and get them to run. But the Win7 OS itself doesn't have this security blanket. So if WP7 is going to get Apollo features then Microsoft will have to write them specifically for WP7.

 

[canesfan625]

That smells like fragmentation to me...

In 2010 there was a lot of discussion around if iOS was fragmented because of iOS 3.0s adoption rate.

 

[socialcarpet]

Another possibility I'm surprised no one has mentioned is that Tango will be an in-between update that will both support the lower spec phones for emerging markets AND introduce new features that will effectively make it an upgrade for our existing phones.

That would allow Microsoft to give everyone an OS upgrade, even if for some reason the actual Apollo release that's based on the NT kernel won't run on anything but newer phones.

Either way I'm not too worried about it. I had to buy a phone because one more day with my Android and I was going to snap. The way I figure it, the Lumia 900 I bought probably has the best chance of any WP7 phone of getting at least some future OS upgrades. Not only because it's new and was being developed at the same time MS is developing WP8, but because Nokia is more likely to go above and beyond to keep it's customers happy than any of the other OEM's.

If it's a matter of drivers or firmware or anything that Nokia can control, then I'm pretty confident they've got my back.

 

[J4rrod]

Too much thought put into something like this. If only people put that much thought into something more important. I mean, I agree, but dude you spend alot of time with that write up and I'm sure you spell checked it and made it politically correct and whatnot. Just too much thought and time put into it. I could understand you writing something like that if you were a developer or something tied closely to the smartphone business (other than being a consumer that will make or break the success of a smartphone) but really, does it matter that much? Either we get it or we don't. If we get it...hoooooraaaay. If we don't....is WP7 THAT BAD? Is waiting a while longer to have your current phones contract to expire going to set you back that much? I see too much time and effort being put into threads on this forums about whether or not we get Apollo. I know it's a forum and forums are for debates, but do you realize you just wrote a novel to paint a picture that most would have received in a simple paragraph? lol. Breathe, let it go, be happy, and be patient. Patience is a virtue. But more power to you if you don't have anything else to do. But like I said, I agree with you.

Actually, sir, I wrote this and looked it over once in 15 minutes, after my classes. I'm graduating in 3 weeks with a BA in psychology and sociology, then on to graduate school for my Master's, so I think before you go throwing around remarks about people putting too much thought into something, maybe you should consider that you may be talking to someone who isn't just some nothing. Also, I find it sad that you say "too much thought." There's no such thing as too much thought. Thinking about things develops your mind, which is a positive thing.

Also, you're on a Windows Phone forums, and you read an article that you deemed too thoughtful and long, but yet you're calling people out for putting thought into a post? I suppose you go on Xbox Forums telling people they do not have lives, huh?

I love technology. I love reading about it, debating about it, thinking about it, etc. If you think that is wrong, then may I ask what do you love?

Anyway, I wrote this because it's sensible. Simple logic can go a long way, but people oftentimes forget to use their logic when dealing with issues like this because of worry. I simply wrote this to shed some light and clear some things up.

I love WP7. I think it's awesome, and it's not bad at all. Not once did I say that. Let's try sticking to the subject at hand here, aye?

Oh, and socialcarpet, this applies to you too.

 

[Reflexx]

As I was sitting here yesterday, getting excited about the "confirmation" of all Windows Phone devices getting Apollo, then worrying about the conflicting article that said that current Windows Phone devices will not get Apollo, my mind happened to stumble upon something that few people consider when rumors, like these, begin to circulate around international corporations and their future plans for their products: logic.

--SNIP--

-Jarrod

I've been saying this for months.

But somehow when you type it out it seems more truthful.

 

[Reflexx]

Too much thought put into something like this. If only people put that much thought into something more important. I mean, I agree, but dude you spend alot of time with that write up and I'm sure you spell checked it and made it politically correct and whatnot. Just too much thought and time put into it. I could understand you writing something like that if you were a developer or something tied closely to the smartphone business (other than being a consumer that will make or break the success of a smartphone) but really, does it matter that much? Either we get it or we don't. If we get it...hoooooraaaay. If we don't....is WP7 THAT BAD? Is waiting a while longer to have your current phones contract to expire going to set you back that much? I see too much time and effort being put into threads on this forums about whether or not we get Apollo. I know it's a forum and forums are for debates, but do you realize you just wrote a novel to paint a picture that most would have received in a simple paragraph? lol. Breathe, let it go, be happy, and be patient. Patience is a virtue. But more power to you if you don't have anything else to do. But like I said, I agree with you.

Wait... is this an argument AGAINST people making sensible posts? Egads!

 

[Reflexx]

Not simple at all. The different kernels means the code for Win8 Apollo is going to be very different from a WinCE Apollo. Compare C code targeting Windows 95 vs C code targeting the Windows 8 API. For apps, the silverlight layer provides enough insulation from the details of the OS that Microsoft can provide a compatibility layer for Win8 and get them to run. But the Win7 OS itself doesn't have this security blanket. So if WP7 is going to get Apollo features then Microsoft will have to write them specifically for WP7.

I think it's been in the plan all along. There was always going to be a kernel change. I think that may be why WP7 came out with some missing features. Then even now, there are still a few missing features. They knew WP7 wasn't going to be permanent.

It is probably the main reason MS has insisted on using managed code. That way they can keep app compatibility while pretty much changing major elements under the hood. As long as they have XNA and Silverlight in there it will be fine.

 

[cckgz4]

I believe this is why I faded away from the forum in the first place LOL. I know when rumors and updates come along, endless conversations and speculations stir on and on and that comes with being on a forum. Still doesn't make it less annoying, especially when folks are actually arguing about who's opinion is correct when there isn't any confirmation on anything yet.

This time though I won't let it steer me away from liking my device any less lol

 

[cp2_4eva]

Actually, sir, I wrote this and looked it over once in 15 minutes, after my classes. I'm graduating in 3 weeks with a BA in psychology and sociology, then on to graduate school for my Master's, so I think before you go throwing around remarks about people putting too much thought into something, maybe you should consider that you may be talking to someone who isn't just some nothing. Also, I find it sad that you say "too much thought." There's no such thing as too much thought. Thinking about things develops your mind, which is a positive thing.

Also, you're on a Windows Phone forums, and you read an article that you deemed too thoughtful and long, but yet you're calling people out for putting thought into a post? I suppose you go on Xbox Forums telling people they do not have lives, huh?

I love technology. I love reading about it, debating about it, thinking about it, etc. If you think that is wrong, then may I ask what do you love?

Anyway, I wrote this because it's sensible. Simple logic can go a long way, but people oftentimes forget to use their logic when dealing with issues like this because of worry. I simply wrote this to shed some light and clear some things up.

I love WP7. I think it's awesome, and it's not bad at all. Not once did I say that. Let's try sticking to the subject at hand here, aye?

Oh, and socialcarpet, this applies to you too.

My man, you totally missed my point. I told you in my response that I AGREE WITH YOU. I said that yes forums are for discussion, so yes it is your right to voice whatever thoughtful happy thoughts come to your head. My point was that this subject on Apollo has been beat to death beyond recognition. No one here is the Nostradamus of the smartphone biz. Although some would like to think they are. My point was that when you could've...hmmmm....cut to the chase and get to the meat and potatoes of what you wanted to say. Again, it's your right and mine to type whatever we want, but when I read your insightful post I'm still scratching my head like, "Another Apollo post?" Why can't we just say yaaaaaay we have great phones! Yaaaay, Apollo is coming soon! I might not get it, but still yaaaaaay! Oh, if i sell of my current phone and can haz Apollo gudness and finally shut up yaaaaaaay (mispelled words intentionally placed). Oh and when Apollo comes out, I can complain more about every little tiny thing about it yaaaaaay.

My post wasn't to totally diss you or anything. It was basically saying:

1. Can we get the indented version next time or a podcast?
2. Another Apollo post?

Ok, I'm done. But AGAIN.....I AGREE WITH YOU.