Most likely. I've been on my Lumina 810 for 3 years now. I finally cracked the camera lens on my last road trip on my motorcycle when it fell out of my tank bag while riding through a parking lot.
Man the 810 is one tough phone. Going 5 mph, I got caught up in the earphone cord and yanked the phone out of a side pocket. Watched the phone bounce around in my rear view mirror. Went back expecting the screen to be shattered. Nope, all good and functional. Only later after taking pictures I kept noticing a weird lens flare on a bunch of my photos. Looking closely at the protective glass over the camera I noticed the crack.
So, yea. I'm due for a new phone. I will GLADLY pay upfront for the unlocked/unbranded version just so I can get timely firmware and O/S updates. No more waiting for the carrier to "approve" anything (screw you T-Mobile!!!)
As for which phone, 950 or the 950XL, I will most likely go with the 950. I'm really not that impressed with phablets, even though I have large hands. But I might change my mind when I go and check them out physically.