Dan Rubino Says "Microsoft should fund the Cerulean Moment"

[Scienceguy Labs]

I'll just leave this here for your entertainment and as a reminder of MS's shenanigans: https://youtu.be/z3nXHAQa-gQ

That was kind of funny.

 

[mattiasnyc]

I didn't read Dan's article as being overly negative; I took it as an assessment of the crowdfunding effort.

The article headline sets the tone. "Redeeming qualities" won't be perceived once that's done, and possibly won't even be read by the Tweet-generation.

 

[Drael646464]

I think I'd much rather have a million dollars of microsofts money spent on funding touch friendly, fully scalable UWP versions of software like oracle database, adobe illustrator, image-line fruity loops, an xbox touch controller, or call of duty.

The software needs to be competitive first. Windows has a rich base of deep, quality power software, from high end games to creative software to hundreds of thousands of coding and enterprise apps.

All MS needs to do to make the release of windows on ARM a wild success is to "demo" that power the same way it does with hardware - invest in 5-10 pieces of software to show off what other developers can do, and show the way (and what the OS can do).

That could probably be done for, say 5 million. Add an extra mil, for bringing over the hold out android app developers, and one more for getting drivers for smart devices on the windows platform, and somewhere about this point you'd have a product that can not only do what the others can do, but do a lot more. Make it a total ten million, and the software and connectivity of the power user apps would be _real_ draw.

Add a snazzy FF, like say, haptic feedback on the screen (would go well with screen keyboard, or above mentioned touch based xbox controller), and an SSD inside, and bang, they fly out the store. Thunderbolt 3 or usb 3.1 ver 2 from intel would not go amiss either given their ability to dock things like external GPUs and full speed hard drives, extra monitors. Even a standard slab with such software capabilities would push decent units, and generate a buzz.

So no, they should not waste 1 million dollars on a fan project. They should use their money to make sure windows core strength of software power and full feature gaming is properly represented on tablet and mobile devices. That developers can see the benefit of bringing their win32s on desktop, over to UWP on tablet and mobile too (Even if its just putting in controller support with above mentioned touch controller, and making the graphics zoom right on small screens)

Just as Microsoft started the hybrid market with the surface, it needs to pioneer an rich app ecosystem that exploits the power of desktop software - a point of difference that is "bet you wish you could" rather than "me too".

 

[nate0]

I didn't read Dan's article as being overly negative; I took it as an assessment of the crowdfunding effort.

Now, I don't think Microsoft is necessarily obligated to fund this project, but I thought Dan's latent message is that platform enthusiasts shouldn't be more invested in the platform's performance than Microsoft itself.

I got mixed info from the article. On one hand, we see WhartonBrooks/Cerulean's weakness put out there. On the other hand, we see Microsoft's weaknesses put out there. Some where in the middle is some praise about the phone itself and other details.

Someone else mentioned here that they thought it was a joke at first. I too felt that way. This is serious business, and WB/Cerulean have this phone ready but nobody seems to want it. That is discouraging and mostly hard to see happen. So I can see Dan's intentions to be upfront about the situation, and honestly wondered if it was kind of a Petition to Microsoft. But then kept going back to it being more of joking matter. Guess that is just my positive side wanting to kick in.

 

[dlalonde]

I agree with him. I can't talk about how crowdsourcing is lame for phones because he's got more experience than I do in that regards. But that being said, a platform should be supported by its builder. If they really are still commited to Windows 10 Mobile, they could at least do like Google did and get a third party make their 'official' device all the while letting OEMs do their thing. I don't think they are but no one tells us anything yet so.

 

[anon(50597)]

I don't know, maybe I overreacted, but we all know how perceptions drive peoples decisions. The title of the article will come up on Internet searches and will, in my opinion, just add fuel to the fire. While MS is ultimately responsible, it seems to me this community should help support those who are trying to create exactly what we ask for. If their main investor had not backed out, they wouldn't have had to go this route. It is what it is.

Sent from mTalk on my SP4

 

[Greywolf1967]

I have been against this crowd funded business from the get go, and oddly enough I am not against WB from bringing Windows Phones to Market !!!

My whole point is WB made it seem that they were breaking new ground, or doing something different when in truth they are not doing anything new or ground breaking.

This should have been Venture Capital from day one, and when WB's original backers left Microsoft could have with no issue at all joined in to start the ball rolling.

The Funding has now stalled and there is no way WB will meet it's goal, however this is going to impact future perception of WB and it's efforts and in truth that is a shame !!!!!

I admire they had a vision, but after the fail that NuAns was I did not see any future in what WB is trying to do.

Microsoft needs to lay down a clear picture to both Partners/Future Partners, and Consumers as to what to expect.

Even old timers like myself have lost faith, and we are basically now just curled up in a ball trying not to get kicked in the teeth by any who take a shot at our Mobile platform. More then anything else it's Microsoft that beat the fight out of us.......

 

[etphoto]

I am not sure I understand this situation correctly. Can't anyone (except for us sad Verizon users) get an Idol 4s if the want a new WP? Why blame WP fans for not wanting to support a start up company when there are phones that a fan can actually buy if and when they r looking for a new phone? Yea, it would be great to have additional choices but to fork over hard earned cash to help a company you may never buy anything from leaves me scratching my head trying to figure out the logic.

Twitter: @PhotographyET

 

[nate0]

I am not sure I understand this situation correctly. Can't anyone (except for us sad Verizon users) get an Idol 4s if the want a new WP? Why blame WP fans for not wanting to support a start up company when there are phones that a fan can actually buy if and when they r looking for a new phone? Yea, it would be great to have additional choices but to fork over hard earned cash to help a company you may never buy anything from leaves me scratching my head trying to figure out the logic.

Twitter: @PhotographyET

Call us dreamers more or less. If the campaign fails I will be looking to see what Greg does from there. The concept of a company who has plans to take in user criticism and feedback to improve there specific device has intrigued me since the OnePlus start up occured. For me to have that type of shift in windows phones coming from Greg and Cerulean was a big eye catcher for me. I want to see what they are all about.

 

[tgp]

Call us dreamers more or less. If the campaign fails I will be looking to see what Greg does from there. The concept of a company who has plans to take in user criticism and feedback to improve there specific device has intrigued me since the OnePlus start up occured. For me to have that type of shift in windows phones coming from Greg and Cerulean was a big eye catcher for me. I want to see what they are all about. ??????

I'm somewhat intrigued by Mr. Murphy's dreams as well. I just don't see him getting anywhere with W10M. I understand that this was started long before the recent news, but trying to do something now with W10M is like washing windows on the Titanic after it struck the iceberg. I believe he's going to have to look somewhere else.

 

[RumoredNow]

Can't anyone (except for us sad Verizon users) get an Idol 4s if the want a new WP?

Depends on who "anyone" is. Anyone in the US, except now T-Mo has discontinued it so cut out anyone on T-Mo who wants VoLTE and WiFi Calling unless they go with a used Idol 4S. And the recent sale on Amazon (by Alcatel) of unlocked Idol 4S has me wondering if they are selling off remaining stock and ceasing manufacture. They've been dragging their feet about releasing it in any other country.

"Anyone" doesn't include most of the world and the portion that can access and use the device is now contracting.

Here's the issue as I see it. These OEMs send up a test in the US because that is where a huge chunk of the phone money is. But the US has by and large not supported Windows Phone so the OEMs think nobody wants it. The Idol 4S Windows might have skyrocketed elsewhere. A phone like that simply can't take off in the US, especially when tied to T-Mo for months as an exclusive and never released in another country. How does T-MoUS get a world exclusive? SMH


As for Cerulean, at least they are trying something. Yes crowd funding stinks on ice. It wasn't the original plan.

 

[tgp]

These OEMs send up a test in the US because that is where a huge chunk of the phone money is. But the US has by and large not supported Windows Phone so the OEMs think nobody wants it.

It seems this way, but I doubt it's quite that simple. The OEMs are not that ignorant. After all, their bottom line is dependent on selling devices. Don't you think they do whatever they can to move them? I would think they have a reason for doing what they're doing. And I certainly do not believe that a few anonymous keyboard warriors know better!

WP's market share in the US has historically been higher than worldwide market share. It still is even today. Maybe the US is actually a roughly accurate cross section of demand.

 

[RumoredNow]

LOL I don't know what pipe dream LeGere sold TCL/Alcatel, but T-Mo's track record with WP is not attractive to me as a consumer. Historically, in the US, AT&T/Cricket is the way to go if you want your product on the shelf longer than 6 months and you actually want to move some volume.

And no, US has never had a higher share by % than other regions and by user numbers #1 would likely be the EU where Italy hit 14% market share, France topped out at 12% (IIRC), Germany around 10% + and UK nearing 10%.

So far as I remember the US topped out near 4% in the late 2014, early 2015 high water mark for WP.

 

[etphoto]

Yeah, Europe has done better with WP then US when it comes to market share.

Twitter: @PhotographyET

 

[tgp]

And no, US has never had a higher share by % than other regions and by user numbers #1 would likely be the EU where Italy hit 14% market share, France topped out at 12% (IIRC), Germany around 10% + and UK nearing 10%.

I didn't say the US had the highest market share. My observation was that the US has historically had higher market share than the worldwide. Latest reports put worldwide sales market share at 0.3%. The US sales market share in February 2017 was 1.7%, nearly 6x higher. Check it out here.

Either way, there must be a reason for the OEMs to do what they're doing. Their #1 goal is to move devices. They have no vested interest in promoting a certain OS, or in making sacrifices to do so. The question is: why do they seem to focus on the United States? There has to be a reason.

 

[nate0]

I get what you mean. Maybe it was due to convenience and logistics.

Alcatel had already had a Master service center from their previous devices released in the US. HP, is simply global. Other OEMs have not really started in the US though, except WB (as of late anyway) if you scratch Moly. Lenovo--Japan/India I think, Vaio--Japan, Nuans--Japan, and various others that never made it here. Coship/Moly was the only OEM that I know of besides Alcatel that have even some what of a footprint here. Is my assessment off?

It seems there is more of a melting pot of consumers in US. Plus the US and only a handful of other countries FULLY support Cortana and Cortana integration. Cortana will start taking off real soon even larger than the AI assistant is already--my opinion...

 

[RumoredNow]

True enough that US consumers buy phones like chicklets and that is why all the OEMs want in here... But WP has always bucked that volume sales trend.

The EU has more than double the population of the United States, likely close to the same disposable income per capita and likely close to the same cell phone adoption rate (# users of cell phones vs overall population)...


If I were releasing a consumer oriented W10M device that had an MSRP on release, or higher, of what the Idol 4S had ($487 USD) my #1 Target would be the EU where WP did very strong. I'd also target those big buyers in Dubai who seem to drive supply throughout the Arabic and African countries and the Hong Kong e-retailers who do the same for APAC. The US would be a secondary consideration for me as I'd expect more modest sales in the land of 13 year olds with current gen iPhones and Samsung flags.

Mid-tier and budget sell well in those areas also (EU, MEA, APAC). But then you want to also pick up the Latin American markets for $300 USD and less releases.

America really seems to enter into some decent numbers for bargain blowout devices and overstocks for the Walmart shopping, pre-paid users who figure beggars can't be choosers. Then again, those $100 USD or less models have done well all over the world for Windows Phone.

 

[tgp]

Maybe it was due to convenience and logistics.

<snip>

It seems there is more of a melting pot of consumers in US.

I'm guessing that a combination of these points has a lot to do with it. The US might be a good cross section of the average consumer.

Also, the US has a good mix of population and wealth. Some countries, especially in Western Europe, equal or surpass the US in wealth per capita, but don't have the numbers. Other countries have the numbers, but lower GDP.

Who knows?

Plus the US and only a handful of other countries FULLY support Cortana and Cortana integration.

This too. It surprises me that WP did as well as it did in countries not fully supporting Cortana, considering that Cortana was one of the selling points. But being in a country where it is supported is icing on the proverbial cake.

@RumoredNow, being an armchair CEO is easy, isn't it? :smile:

 

[fatclue_98]

I'm guessing that a combination of these points has a lot to do with it. The US might be a good cross section of the average consumer.

Also, the US has a good mix of population and wealth. Some countries, especially in Western Europe, equal or surpass the US in wealth per capita, but don't have the numbers. Other countries have the numbers, but lower GDP.

Who knows?



This too. It surprises me that WP did as well as it did in countries not fully supporting Cortana, considering that Cortana was one of the selling points. But being in a country where it is supported is icing on the proverbial cake.

@RumoredNow, being an armchair CEO is easy, isn't it? :smile:

I'd take my chances with some of the armchair CEOs here as opposed to some of those who have actually held the title. Exhibit A - Leo Apotheker.

 

[dgr_874]

I think I'd much rather have a million dollars of microsofts money spent on funding touch friendly, fully scalable UWP versions of software like oracle database, adobe illustrator, image-line fruity loops, an xbox touch controller, or call of duty.

The software needs to be competitive first. Windows has a rich base of deep, quality power software, from high end games to creative software to hundreds of thousands of coding and enterprise apps.

All MS needs to do to make the release of windows on ARM a wild success is to "demo" that power the same way it does with hardware - invest in 5-10 pieces of software to show off what other developers can do, and show the way (and what the OS can do).

That could probably be done for, say 5 million. Add an extra mil, for bringing over the hold out android app developers, and one more for getting drivers for smart devices on the windows platform, and somewhere about this point you'd have a product that can not only do what the others can do, but do a lot more. Make it a total ten million, and the software and connectivity of the power user apps would be _real_ draw.

Add a snazzy FF, like say, haptic feedback on the screen (would go well with screen keyboard, or above mentioned touch based xbox controller), and an SSD inside, and bang, they fly out the store. Thunderbolt 3 or usb 3.1 ver 2 from intel would not go amiss either given their ability to dock things like external GPUs and full speed hard drives, extra monitors. Even a standard slab with such software capabilities would push decent units, and generate a buzz.

So no, they should not waste 1 million dollars on a fan project. They should use their money to make sure windows core strength of software power and full feature gaming is properly represented on tablet and mobile devices. That developers can see the benefit of bringing their win32s on desktop, over to UWP on tablet and mobile too (Even if its just putting in controller support with above mentioned touch controller, and making the graphics zoom right on small screens)

Just as Microsoft started the hybrid market with the surface, it needs to pioneer an rich app ecosystem that exploits the power of desktop software - a point of difference that is "bet you wish you could" rather than "me too".

And how much battery life do you think that would possible get? An hour or two?