Invest in Nokia?

[ejb222]

Your thoughts on this article?
If You believe in Nokia When Should You Invest in Them? - MSFT, NOK - Foolish Blogging Network

 

[mattpga]

Mostly right. Nokia didnt seem to expect on the big move away from cheap old fashioned symbian handsets to cheap android ones. Big part of revenue gone because they didnt keep up. I always thought it was a big mistake for MS to not get into the cheaper end of the market straight away. The lumia range has been a sucess compared to other WP7 handsets, but not compared to any other OS. not enough.

Wouldnt surprise me to see Microsoft buy it once its gets nearer to collapse (and cheaper).

 

[cp2_4eva]

I don't know, with the boom that has been the Nokia Lumia line, I'd say buy buy buy. But I'm no stock trader or anything. All I know it that Nokia is building it's reputation back. people love the 800 and the 900 along with the 710 and the other windows phones. The cool part is, WP7 is not as complete as WP8 will be. Nokia is building momentum and gearing up for a good 2013. It's already been proven that Nokia actually listens more than other companies, so I'm almost certain we will be getting more of what we want in October.

The world is getting a taste right now, then people will be seeing what WP8 is all about.

 

[tekhna]

Wouldnt surprise me to see Microsoft buy it once its gets nearer to collapse (and cheaper).

Yeah, this seems like the logical outcome at this point. Microsoft gets an enormous patent portfolio and huge team of designers and engineers, matches Google's acquisition of Motorola. I'd bet Nokia is in bankruptcy by Christmas.

It's possible they turn it around, but they're in a bad place right now, where their core market is eroding, they're still selling 5 times more Symbian phones than WP phones, and Apollo is right around the corner with a new generation of hardware. There's a decent chance Nokia sells well in the US, but it's probably not enough to stop the hemorrhaging, and the decision to go WP over Android might have lost them Europe.

All that being said, their stock is really, really cheap right now.

Edit: But please don't take the stock advice of strangers on the internet, please. Talk to your financial planner, or do your own research, but buy or sell based on the strength of the company, not your belief, or not, in the company.

 

[red grenadine]

I'd bet Nokia is in bankruptcy by Christmas.

Nokia has €4.9 billion of net cash on their balance sheet.

They burned €1.5 billion in the past year, probably the worst year in the history of the company

Within that, this last "disastrous" quarter they burned €700 million in cash

Even if Nokia has no recovery and continues to burn money at these rates, it has anywhere from 2-3 years of gas in the tank

 

[tekhna]

Nokia has ?4.9 billion of net cash on their balance sheet.

They burned ?1.5 billion in the past year, probably the worst year in the history of the company

Within that, this last "disastrous" quarter they burned ?700 million in cash

Even if Nokia has no recovery and continues to burn money at these rates, it has anywhere from 2-3 years of gas in the tank

Yeah, and that burn rate couldn't possibly increase as their marketshare collapses, they offer 100 dollar credits on phones and spend piles of cash trying to push the Lumia line..

 

[red grenadine]

Sure lets say it does. You forecast that burn rate to quadruple. I don't find that likely.

Sent from my Windows Phone using Board Express

 

[willied]

I really want to invest in Nokia, but I'm a noob with this stuff so I don't know.

 

[tekhna]

Sure lets say it does. You forecast that burn rate to quadruple. I don't find that likely.

Sent from my Windows Phone using Board Express

344 million euros net profit Q1 2011 to 700 million net less Q1 2012 is the very definition of accelerating losses. You're right that I was being hyperbolic about Christmas, but Nokia is in a really bad way, and the marketshare losses are only going to compound if Nokia has to cut back due to a perceived need to slow the rate of cash-burn.

I wonder how much worse the situation would look with out the multi-billion dollar cash infusion Microsoft gave Nokia.

 

[red grenadine]

344 million euros net profit Q1 2011 to 700 million net less Q1 2012 is the very definition of accelerating losses. You're right that I was being hyperbolic about Christmas, but Nokia is in a really bad way, and the marketshare losses are only going to compound if Nokia has to cut back due to a perceived need to slow the rate of cash-burn.

I wonder how much worse the situation would look with out the multi-billion dollar cash infusion Microsoft gave Nokia.

You have to remember that Q1 2012 includes €1.1B of one-time restructuring charges (primarily at the Nokia Siemens JV) and intangible write-downs. I'm of the opinion they sort of sandbagged this quarter so the next one or two look much better.

Anyway, to take a quarter where Nokia was ramping up spend for a big launch in the US (with obviously no corresponding revenue due to launch in Q2) and just starting its pivot to actually producing and selling Windows Phones and extrapolate that out seems a bit harsh to me. I'm very interested in seeing Q2 numbers, I think that's when you can start to get a sense of whether Nokia can stabilize the ship with an eye towards actually righting the ship in Late 2012 / 2013

 

[ejb222]

You have to remember that Q1 2012 includes ?1.1B of one-time restructuring charges (primarily at the Nokia Siemens JV) and intangible write-downs. I'm of the opinion they sort of sandbagged this quarter so the next one or two look much better.

Anyway, to take a quarter where Nokia was ramping up spend for a big launch in the US (with obviously no corresponding revenue due to launch in Q2) and just starting its pivot to actually producing and selling Windows Phones and extrapolate that out seems a bit harsh to me. I'm very interested in seeing Q2 numbers, I think that's when you can start to get a sense of whether Nokia can stabilize the ship with an eye towards actually righting the ship in Late 2012 / 2013

I hope you're right. I'm just a stamp short from sending in my application for their Dividend Reinvestment Program.

 

[texantony]

The way I see it, big risk, big reward. With Microsoft making a push, my latest investments include Microsoft, Intel, Nokia (long) and Alcatel-Lucent (watching carefully).

Sorry if this shows up again but I thought I hit send on my phone but never saw the post, hehe.

Sent from my Lumia 900 using Board Express

 

[red grenadine]

Yes it is a risky bet. I'm not going to tell you how to invest your money, but if you are long MSFT, it makes sense to be long NOK, as the latter has basically become the former's mobile arm

 

[rdubmu]

As Warren Buffet says, you invest in something you believe in. If you have to like the product then look at the business. For me, and my personal experience with the Lumia 900, it is a solid idea that wasn't executed. There are many issues, hardware I am talking about before I would invest in a company. I happy with the product they created. If it was executed with little hardware issues then I would invest.

Lets see how the next few quarters go and the next version of the Lumia line.

 

[texantony]

Good article posted today...

http://beta.fool.com/timbrugger/201...ted/4223/?ticker=MSFT&source=eogyholnk0000001

Sent from my Lumia 900 using Board Express

 

[FriendOrDafoe]

I want to go to 1993 and invest in microsoft. Just saying...

 

[tekhna]

I want to go to 1993 and invest in microsoft. Just saying...

You want to go back in time and invest in an already-dominant company right as its market is about to explode? Want a unicorn sandwich too?

Sitting a 3.20 right now. How long before it hits 3.00 even? I'd think about buying a 3.00, if only because it's a takeover target at 3.00. Was there some news I missed that it fell so much in overnight trading?

 

[ejb222]

You want to go back in time and invest in an already-dominant company right as a market is about to explode? Want a unicorn sandwich too?

Sitting a 3.20 right now. How long before it hits 3.00 even? I'd think about buying a 3.00, if only because it's a takeover target at 3.00. Was there some news I missed that it fell so much in overnight trading?

Looks like everything is down today. Oil is down 2.4% as well.

 

[tekhna]

Looks like everything is down today. Oil is down 2.4% as well.

Nokia fell 10% on European trading, which is a bit more than the broader market.. I'm curious as to why, was there some story that precipitated the sell-off?

 

[jabtano]

I bought Nokia, I'm down $1.56.00 pre share. But then I bought again at $3.30 per. Look even if it drops down even more I would buy it again. First off, the numbers we are seeing now are actually transition numbers. Shifitng gears the way Nokia is doing was going to be costly. Though I don't think they saw it as being this costly. Nokia has a great backbone company wise. so even if the company looks crappy on the market. it may look very diclinous to another. Plus I don't think that Microsoft will allow Nokia to fail because that would be mean the billions invested in WP would be lost as well. I think when win8 and wp8 come we are going to see some big spikes in WP usage in the coming new year. I think Nokia can ride it out. wouldn't be bad to see the stock come back up within the next 12-24 months. Really investing in Nokia is a bargain right now.