Have you seen the post about the possibility that Intel might still be working on mobile x86 chips? On one hand it hints that work is being done on a intel (read x86) mobile chip, against the accepted wisdom that they had given up, but on the other hand it seems clear that possibility - and thus the Surface phone as an x86 device -is as far away as it always been.
For those of us who believe Microsoft's remaining hope (other than throwing in the towel once and for all and launching its Android skin/fork) to break it's current vicious circle - of less users leading to less developers leading to less apps leading to less users - lies in leveraging its dominance in the desktop (I.e, x86) installed base of "apps" and drivers (and from my point of view the evidence points overwhelming in that direction but I accept that it's not a universally shared view ), these comments strongly imply that there won't be a x86 Windows Phone until Spring 2018, at the earliest.
Yes, I could be wrong; maybe they'll pull a Surface Book or HoloLens type of stunt and announce the Surface Phone in October - or at least next spring.
I think the chances are zero.
The Surface Book was an innovation in DESIGN only; it used standard parts, including off the shelf CPU, GPU, etc. In other words, no Technology breakthrough.
HoloLens It's a slightly different case, but again, it uses a lot of off-the-shelf parts, and the main innovation is on the software side, Microsoft's strength (yes, I know what you thinking. Insert your favourite smartass one liner below). And while the HoloLens can claim to be some breakthrough in Technology, it actually proves the point that no x86 Surface Phone is coming in the short-term: Through the HoloLens has been announced, it will be a long time until it hits the market. And this, I think, It's the best one could hope for right now: An announcement of a x86 Surface phone that won't hit the market for a long time. Given that BOTH Microsoft and Intel are on the record saying that they will be doing more and talking less (a bit ironic perhaps - but I suppose the work part is probably going on - it's just not visible to outsiders at this point), I don't expect to see an x86 W10M phone, not even an announcement coming any time soon.
This in not something that either Microsoft or any OEM can do on their own. You can build a Surface Book without even involving Intel (other than buying the off-the-shelf chips), but you cannot build an x86 phone without Intel (or someone else) providing the necessary chip. And it's obvious that the chips do not exist yet, nor is the technology do make them to a useful standard there right now.
What we need then, is something to bridge that gap between W10M right now, and a future with W10M on a x86. Something that is achievable with current technology but it takes genius design, as Microsoft previously done with the Surface Pro, and more recently with the Surface Book (a strategy that Apple perfected, by the way: get available technology and put it together in ingenious ways with great design).
If Microsoft is looking for this kind of innovation, with the overarching goal of bridging the gap until a x86 phone, what could he come up with? The original Surface added a keyboard (and later a stylus) to a tablet; the Book had a stroke of genius of separating processing\graphic power depending on the form factor. These solve similar problems that a smartphone (any smartphone, whether W10M, Android or iPhone) has to deal with as well, just more so - after all smartphones are just small tablets with telephony). So, they could also in theory be the kind of innovations Microsoft applies to the smartphone:
i) Add better input devices to the phone such as stylus, keyboard, etc.
ii) Separate the processing\graphical power depending on the form factor - I am sure I am not the first to have thought of putting an x86 processor and\or GPU in a W10M dock (and also surely not the first to have thought of what the point of doing so would be as the advantages are limited).
What other ideas are currently being explored in this respect? The lapdock idea seems to be slowly gaining acceptance in the W10M fledging ecosystem - maybe the innovation will come through there - again, a design in innovation (i.e., do a better lapdock)
There are rumours growing of a Surface AIO coming soon. This is puzzling. There are plenty of very good AIOs offered by Microsoft partners, so why would Microsoft want to enter this niche in the stagnating PC market? Let's remind ourselves that Microsoft is primarily a Software company that relies on hardware partners. Apart from peripherals (keyboards, mice, and the like) it has only entered the hardware business ("reluctantly", it claims) to either
a) use it a vehicle for software sales - the XBox being a prime example
or
b) when it felt the manufactures were not innovating enough and it feared this could leave the Windows platform open to attack from outsiders. The prime examples being the entire Surface offering. Unlike the XBox, the software used by an AIO PC is, in theory, exactly the same as to any other PC. It's also not a innovative form factor and it's hard to rationalise which threats accruing from outsiders to the Windows platform from coming up with amazing AIOs - even at it's peak the original iMac, with all it's appeal, didn't make a dent in the PC world - Microsoft would be fighting. No one is going to switch to Android\Chrome if Google releases a really cool AIO Pixel.
So if Microsoft is indeed releasing a AIO in October, I'll be one of the many people scratching my head and asking why. As I said, Microsoft relies on its partners' hardware to push Windows and other services and software, and these partners have their own AIO products. They won't look kindly to Microsoft's intrusion in their turf. With the Surface line so far, at least Microsoft can arguably claim that they have created those markets (2-1s) and they are happy to share those markets with their partners. They were\are just leading the way and providing inspiration to the manufacturers (which the manufacturers have taken it quite literally and are now shamelessly ripping off Microsoft Surface designs). Unless the Surface AIO is truly innovative on a scale capable of creating an entire new niche market, it's hard to see how this same argument could be used for such a product.
How could Microsoft do that level of innovation with an AIO - a very mature form factor? Could this Surface AIO be something else entirely? And if so, what?
Putting all of the above together, I have a theory.It's probably not true. Hell, it's almost certainly not true, but for your entertainment and a bit of What-If thinking, read on.
What if the rumoured AIO (All In One) is actually a NIO (None In One)? By that I mean this: What if the Surface AIO is just an empty shell - a type of Continuum Dock but on a desktop form factor - screen included rather than the laptop form factor of the likes of the NexDock, ProDock, and HP's Lap Dock?
What would be the innovation that such a Surface AIO continuum dock would bring that makes it better than just connecting to a standard monitor with the current Microsoft dock (or even directly with USB-C)? The honest answer is I don't know! After all, I've been thinking of this idea, putting the above pieces together, for a grand total of 3 minutes, give or take!
But whatever the innovations are, I would expect the objective and end result to be a seamless experience for a W10M or Surface Pro device user to transition to a complete desktop experience.
Such a Surface AIO for Continuum would be mostly a screen monitor with maybe a wireless charging mat where you drop a surface device - phone, obviously, but potentially Surface Pro as well - which would then connect to the display either via the fast-becoming ubiquitous USB-C or even wirelessly - assuming lag issues could be sorted - via NFC pairing. These docks would obviously have the usual USB and LAN ports, maybe built-in speakers and even extra storage. Unlike the laptop form-factor docks, these wouldn't be intended for mobility, so the built-in options are almost limitless and this is where I think the innovation could come. Need some extra GPU a la Surface Book? No problem - it's included in the AIO. Who knows, even an extra, more powerful x86 CPU is included in the AIO. That could give Surface Pro's some extra oomph for power hungry applications or, more usefully, the ability to run x86 'apps' on your W10M.
All of these are basic design innovations which would cleverly combine existing technology to the further expand the desktop form-factor landscape to mobile devices via peripherals - exactly what Microsoft did with the Surface and Surface Book. Just like when you are in continuum mode you can only access apps that can run in continuum, when when undocked you would not be able to access those apps that use the extras in the dock - GPU, CPU, or whatever.
Price-wise, I doubt this would be much cheaper than just a phone and a completely separate PC. Of course Surface line are not immune to the same challenges: It's cheaper to buy a proper laptop and a tablet than a Surface Book. Yet there's still a market for Surface Books.
The main advantage is that your 'computer' is always with you. Take your phone\Surface to work, drop it below the monitor on your desk and it takes the shape of a a normal desktop PC, while at the same time, you're free to multitask on your phones, take calls etc. Need to visit a customer or it's time to go home? Pick up your phone\surface and take your work with you. I know dozens of people at my company (mainly in Sales) that are issued with a company phone, laptop and dock. Yet, virtually the only work they do on the laptop is email.Give them W10M and get a few AIO Surface Docks for them to hot-desk when in the office and the company could probably save money and the employees saved from carrying 2 devices everywhere.
Many people didn't see the point of the Surface Pro when it launched, but now there is a whole market segment based on it. A AIO as a Surface Dock might not make a lot of sense the first time i thought about it (5minutes ago) but the more I think about, the more I think there could be a niche for it. Not a big market to start with (in part a good thing as it would not threaten Microsoft manufacturer partners), but as the concept was further refined both from a software as well hardware point of view, particularly as more and more units hit the market made by not just Microsoft but also OEMs (assuming W10M got any traction, at least in enterprise) then eventually these type AIO Surface docks and their OEM copies would find their places to in hotels, airports, schools, etc. All you'd have to do is drop your phone\tablet on the charging mat and continue writing that work email. With a small Tinder window on the bottom your screen, of course.
Lets see what the rumoured Surface AIO brings in October.
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