Microsoft didn't get burned. Microsoft sawed off the limb the were sitting on. Microsoft has been playing Coyote to the world's RoadRunner.
Just so you know where I'm coming from, I'm a Windows developer since Version 1 of Windows. I've worked on every version of Windows except the PowerPC. My first Smartphone was Windows CE based. Motorola 220.
The thing that has been happening is Microsoft and their lack of consumer understanding, but from my perspective, they have been aiming at their foot at every turn.
C and C++ Is where the majority of applications for Windows were written. When Windows Mobile 3 came out, they demanded C#. OK. Not a big leap and understandable Wince the ARM (and other small chips) wasn't the same. Still, a compiler should handle the differences between processors. But, they wanted to push a processor agnostic run-time. Also, potentially noble, but it does kicked developers out.
Windows Mobile up through version 6.5 didn't really change. At least not according to the people that screamed for years for Microsoft to change things. They wouldn't. But Microsoft was king of the smartphone market. Who needed to compete with that? Not Microsoft.
Windows 7 was a "complete rewrite", but it didn't need to be and it never appeared to be under the hood. Directory structures and registry, DLLs and the rest all appeared to be the same, but it was late. What you did get was Apple's release strategy. Microsoft dropped Cut, Copy and Paste, and multitasking. All things that existed in every version of Windows since version 1. But, it didn't exist in the iPhone at the initial release. And you got an App store where Microsoft could decide what you would run and a developer suddenly had to pay to write apps.
Then was Windows 8. Remember when we were told to use C# and Silverlight? Not on Windows 8 and then Windows Phone 8. Everything is now CSS3, HTML5 and Javascript.
And Windows RT? That was running on ARM like Windows CE? A new market for our CE projects? A new way to run our corporate tools? No. You could not compile binary apps for the RT. Unless you were Microsoft. Everyone needs Office and Microsoft wasn't ready for CSS#/HTML5 Office. So they ran the binaries, but no one else could. RT was going to promise a new age of all windows apps running on WOA! (Windows on ARM). That never materialized.
Windows Phone 8 was more of the same. Windows 10 Mobile was still locked down and you did get multi-tasking and Cut, Copy and Paste in Phone 7.5 before I get called on that.
So, the big question is "Did developers abandon Microsoft? Or did Microsoft abandon the developers?" Did the Windows RT prove that no one would support Windows on ARM? Or did Microsoft close the door on developers that wanted to support ARM? With Windows 10X, Microsoft could provide a basis for all Windows apps to run on ALL Windows machines, but they still refuse. Maybe it is Intel? Emulators could be the issue, but still, the tech will allow what Microsoft won't.
Windows 10X can work on the DUO. It is working on the Neo. Windows on ARM is running on the Lumia 950X. It has a DOS emulator running as well. What about the Apps for 10X? All the Windows Apps (potentially). "But not phone apps!" you say. Try BlueStacks, Andy, GenyMotion? There are Android emulators for Windows. Windows 10X with a built-in Android emulator can run most of the Apps you need and want. WebApps! Microsoft could even entice Android developers to sell their Apps in the Windows Store UNCHANGED to run in the emulator on Windows. With maybe a little help for those that need a fix. Use this to build the Windows Store. Not porting. Emulating. No extra work, just extra audience; extra customers.
Windows 10X on Duo could be a hit, but it still does expect Microsoft to perform. And that is the real question. Can Microsoft support a commercial user product? BAND. Ok. Maybe Microsoft does too much aBANDonware.
I want my real Windows on a pocketable device that makes phone calls!