My two cents on Windows Phone and the future

[videoouija]

I don't know why you expect a response to this emotional reply. I questioned your credibility because you based WP8's future success on "my coworkers like WP8" which is purely anecdotal. Also none of what you call proof actually is. You and some other posters did provide some very good evidence of Verizon's role with Android, so I'll give credit there. But that was a sidetrack argument, and not the main topic of this discussion. The majority, if not all of your points on the main topic ARE opinions. You're entitled to them. I happen to disagree with your opinions.

Hard numbers from Kantar Worldpanel are absolutely credible proof. Hence why Neowin and WP Central reported them. I'm not asking for an apology on the opinion section of my post -- that is opinion. You went on a tirade about people with tech credentials and then pointed out two statements as false, both which have been proven otherwise: 1) Verizon "made" Android and 2) WP gaining share overall (as of November numbers from Kantar and personally observed by myself -- using Kantar's numbers for your "credible" proof). These aren't opinion, these are fact. Upon reading the replies and seeing this proof, you decide facts don't matter, it's all opinion and it's pointless. I need to get you a show on Fox News.

I agree it's absolutely fine we don't agree on the whole piece and that doesn't merit an apology. But attacking credibility simply because I'm a techie who works in the mobile industry (and you have bad feelings about those people) and then being wrong on the facts you picked and called out as pointed out by numerous people on here, that does. At the very, very least, deserve a "My Bad."

This is why they say don't feed the trolls. *sigh*

This is my last post on the matter.

 

[jaif]

To the OP - thanks for the post. I normally don't read through long posts, but yours was as good as any blog and got me thinking.

To others - he's putting his thoughts and observations out there, that's all. It's not scientific thesis, just an informed post. Doesn't make him right, but asking for "proof" and attacking "credibility" into the mix just sours the whole thread to no purpose.

-Jeff

 

[omniusovermind]

Hard numbers from Kantar Worldpanel are absolutely credible proof. Hence why Neowin and WP Central reported them. I'm not asking for an apology on the opinion section of my post -- that is opinion. You went on a tirade about people with tech credentials and then pointed out two statements as false, both which have been proven otherwise: 1) Verizon "made" Android and 2) WP gaining share overall (as of November numbers from Kantar and personally observed by myself -- using Kantar's numbers for your "credible" proof). These aren't opinion, these are fact. Upon reading the replies and seeing this proof, you decide facts don't matter, it's all opinion and it's pointless. I need to get you a show on Fox News.

I agree it's absolutely fine we don't agree on the whole piece and that doesn't merit an apology. But attacking credibility simply because I'm a techie who works in the mobile industry (and you have bad feelings about those people) and then being wrong on the facts you picked and called out as pointed out by numerous people on here, that does. At the very, very least, deserve a "My Bad."

This is why they say don't feed the trolls. *sigh*

This is my last post on the matter.

Good to hear. Those hard numbers don't tell the whole story. There's too many variables. Android wouldn't be where it is today if it was terrible, promotion by one carrier notwithstanding. I can understand national pride, but saying Android owes worldwide success to one US carrier is ludicrous. Had you said it was a big factor, I would've had no issue with but that's not your stance. Questioning your credibility I also won't apologize for.

Let's recap. You stated that you have a background in mobile tech to preface your opinion and lend credibility to it. I countered by pointing out that being in the mobile tech industry doesn't automatically qualify you to be more informed. Case in point: The "attacks" on Paul Thurott's article and credentials as being heavily involved with mobile tech on this same forum. Ah, no hypocrisy there right? Recap #2: You pointed out that your credible evidence is demonstrated by the purely anecdotal evidence that your coworkers approval of WP6 equates to it being the second best OS. One person's workplace is a solid indicator of where WP8 stands in the industry? No. So both of the things I questioned you on are both quite justified.

Your parting argument is to now resort to slinging the Troll label around. Classic.

 

[AngryNil]

Android wouldn't be where it is today if it was terrible, promotion by one carrier notwithstanding. I can understand national pride, but saying Android owes worldwide success to one US carrier is ludicrous.s:

Disagree. iOS and Android were far more user friendly than Symbian from day one and Symbian sold incredibly well for years to come. I think you misunderstand the Verizon point. Verizon brought Android to the public eye, and allowed it to gain relevance in the US. There are in fact many countries which follow the US in terms of trends, I know my country started receiving Android devices about a year after the Droid first made it big. Android also has the advantage of wide price points and form factors, which isn't a testament to the quality of the platform but simply its nature. Your stance on requiring rock solid numbers or sources as proof is unreasonable, statistics aren't the world and any right-minded person would know that.

Recap #2: You pointed out that your credible evidence is demonstrated by the purely anecdotal evidence that your coworkers approval of WP6 equates to it being the second best OS. One person's workplace is a solid indicator of where WP8 stands in the industry?

He pointed out statistics and backed them up with anecdotal evidence. It is completely invalid to spin that as "both are not credible". Your reasoning is nothing short of terrible.

 

[socialcarpet]

We both know this is a pointless forum debating exercise : quoting articles. It's pointless because we could spend weeks finding and linking articles that don't agree. I think the best thing to do is respectfully disagree until we see what maybe around Q2 2013 numbers are for WP8 to see if Thurott was accurate or not, fair enough?

Disagreeing with the fact that Verizon brought Android into the mainstream is like disagreeing that fire is hot and will burn you, but go right ahead.

 

[socialcarpet]

There's too many variables. Android wouldn't be where it is today if it was terrible, promotion by one carrier notwithstanding. I can understand national pride, but saying Android owes worldwide success to one US carrier is ludicrous.

I don't think anyone suggested than Verizon was single-handedly responsible for Android's success, but I think it's certainly clear than they got it off the starting blocks in those early days. Early on Android wasn't much to look at and Google was doing nothing to promote it. Without the Droid brand and advertising hype I think it's safe to say it would have done very little for a least a year and probably saw some slow growth perhaps. On it's own without a brand and advertising behind it, it couldn't do much. No one knew about and even if you showed it to someone, it looked like nothing more than a crude imitation of the iPhone in the beginning, which is really all it was.

You're right that it couldn't have survived on hype alone though, once it got some momentum and the OEM's started to use that for inspiration to sell new products emphasizing Android as a benefit instead just a concession prize for people not on AT&T who couldn't get an iPhone, then it began to get some mindshare.

As for Windows Phone, it's a bit different. It actually got off to a stronger start than Android did, but it lost the wind from its sails quickly when both Microsoft and the OEM's failed to market and advertise it sufficiently and

I believe Windows Phone had its "Droid moment" when Nokia entered the fray. The Lumia brand is to Windows Phone what "Droid" was to Android. Lumia has become almost synonymous with Windows Phone and the fact that Nokia was the first to actually market unique hardware and aggressively promote Windows Phone as a benefit has gotten Windows Phone attention that it never had before, and never would have gotten without the right product and the right marketing behind it.

Even now, when I show people my phone, I find just as many "regular" people are familiar with the Lumia brand as they are with Windows Phone. Maybe more.

So the bottom line is, the best OS in the world likely cannot make it on its own without a killer product and marketing to back it up. Ubuntu Linux is a great OS, but how many people do you know that use it? Almost none. But if an OEM with deep pockets started shipping it aggressively and built a whole eye-catching new product lineup around it, you would see desktop linux marketshare begin to climb overnight.

As for Paul Thurott, just like any of the other clowns in the blogoverse, he doesn't have any special insight or knowledge the rest of us don't have, he just has a platform from which to speculate. I don't waste my time with those guys. I can come here and learn more than I will from any of those sites.

 

[aubreyq]

Anyone who doesn't think Verizon catapulted Android into the mainstream loses credibility in my book. Verizon made Android a household name. That is a FACT. I can't believe people are debating it.

 

[brmiller1976]

Verizon had very little to do with Android's global success. Verizon is not a player outside of the USA, where the vast majority of Android phones are sold. It had no impact on Android's dominance in Europe and South America, for example.

In fact, Android UNDERPERFORMS in the USA versus other markets.

 

[brmiller1976]

As for what Microsoft has to do to win with Windows Phone:

Uncompromisingly putting user experience first.

And by uncompromising, I mean UNCOMPROMISING.

No more excuses. No more half-measures. No more "soon" and "tomorrow."

Some examples:

1) Get a friggin' working Skype app out, for ****'s sake. What does it say to third party developers considering developing for WP, when Microsoft cannot even be bothered to get a working version of its principal acquisition of 2012 on its own phone OS?

2) Fix updates. Make them carrier-independent and available immediately across devices to everyone.

3) Every time a key app is disabled or modified due to incompatibilities with WP 8, send out a developer strike team to help the developer fix it. For instance, WP8 breaks the mobile banking apps for B of A and Chase, which is unacceptable. Microsoft should have developers in New York and Charlotte working around the clock to fix those apps. Breaking other key apps like Spotify is even worse -- there should be a strike team helping Spotify fix the broken app immediately.

4) Spend less money on stupid celebrity ads, and more money conveying the actual user experience.

5) Fix the music player and sync to PC problems. Then, make the cloud sync best-in-class.

6) Stop talking about "soon" or "patient" or "in the coming months." Banish those words from the lexicon.

7) Fire anybody on the Windows Phone team who is not absolutely uncompromising on delivering timely and high-quality products. Anybody who uses the term "good enough" or "soon" should be shown the door.

8) Fix the product naming. There are too many versions of "Windows" -- Phone, RT, 8, Server, it confuses people.

 

[Reflexx]

Anyone who doesn't think Verizon catapulted Android into the mainstream loses credibility in my book. Verizon made Android a household name. That is a FACT. I can't believe people are debating it.

This isn't factually accurate.

Maybe if you're onot talking about the US market.

 

[dogfish54]

Verizon made Android successful at the high end.

Android numbers are skewed by ultra low-priced smartphones that are really just feature phones. I think the SIII is doing extremely well, but the high-end is where the traction is much harder to gain.

 

[aubreyq]

This isn't factually accurate.

Maybe if you're onot talking about the US market.

Okay, maybe I'm talking about the US market so my perspective is limited. But honestly, I never heard non-geeks utter the question "Does it have Android?" until Verizon marketed the Droid like crazy, starting with taking jabs at the iPhone about being a princess phone, the Island of Misfit Toys commercial, etc. It just snowballed from there.

 

[aubreyq]

No more "soon" and "tomorrow."
...
6) Stop talking about "soon" or "patient" or "in the coming months." Banish those words from the lexicon.

This. Seriously. The "soon" and "just wait" bits is just tired and old. It's ridiculous.

 

[brmiller1976]

Yep. Notice how Apple does it... make no promises, and deliver above expectations.

So far, Microsoft has made LOTS of promises and missed delivery on many of them. Like "best in class Skype experience, out of the box," and "seamless, easy, effortless, timely OTA updates."

 

[manicottiK]

Microsoft has made LOTS of promises and missed...[including] "seamless, easy, effortless, timely OTA updates."

Since WP8 has been out for less than two months and the first update has arrived over the air and installed itself. What part of your quote applies? (You're right on Skype, which is why I cut it out of the part that I quoted.)

 

[StevesBalls]

Since WP8 has been out for less than two months and the first update has arrived over the air and installed itself. What part of your quote applies? (You're right on Skype, which is why I cut it out of the part that I quoted.)

For you maybe, but there are lots of people out there still waiting for the update.

 

[Mosov]

Android and Google are taking over the technology sphere. Google is the future of technology, if you see some of the projects they are doing, it's quite amazing. If the Chrome OS takes off, Microsoft will be hurting greatly. So it really needs to succeed in the tablet/smartphone sphere so it can become a viable option to Apple and Google in the long run.

 

[ohgood]

This. Seriously. The "soon" and "just wait" bits is just tired and old. It's ridiculous.

Absolutely correct. When microsoft says "coming soon" it means "we're an also-ran", or "we're a maybe-ran" but not a player.

There are lots of points in this thread that were originally stated in wp7, but didn't materialize. Promising features in 8.5 or 9.o just sounds like more of the same.

 

[jhguth]

When WP8 was launched there was a lot of buzz, there also was no iPhone 5. The phones should have been available immediately at launch to capitalize on the buzz, instead we had to wait for them to slowly trickle our to carriers. There was way too much of a gap between the various Windows, HTC, and Nokia launch events and actually being able to use a phone.

 

[brmiller1976]

Since WP8 has been out for less than two months and the first update has arrived over the air and installed itself.

Not for most users. Depending on who your carrier is and which phone you have, you either received the update a week ago, received it recently, have been told to expect it "soon" or "in the coming months," or even have been told that no update is currently planned. A great example of poor user experience.