Nokia stock is at $2.85 a share..

[a5cent]

The underlying financial performance after one time writeoffs was much better than I expected. They need only a moderate hit in consumer to return to profitability.

Good to see you coming round miller!

In fact, over half of Nokia's losses during the last three quarters were due to one time expenses and write offs (closing factories worldwide and relocating them to Vietnam, severance pay packages, etc.)

 

[Heron_Kusanagi]

When you look in the internal number. They doing "OK" in all areas except the smartphone market.

What is Asha and why didn't they go with that over WP7. [looks like megoo]

Asha runs S40, and the latest iterations of Asha have full touch and have elements of the Swipe UI in MeeGo. Unfortunately, S40 looks dated and does not exactly have an active app ecosystem. Asha models are very cheap, and sells well in third world countries where they need a good phone with inbuilt services and cheap access to the internet.

Nokia Launches Asha 308 And 309; Prices Start From Rs 6200 | TechTree.com

WP is what Nokia wants to use in its premium smartphones, I will presume.

 

[a5cent]

When you look in the internal number. They doing "OK" in all areas except the smartphone market.

What is Asha and why didn't they go with that over WP7.

Asha is their Symbian based quasi-smartphone linup (also runs angry birds). It is a huge hit in developing nations (2nd world, not 3rd). Asha was in development long before Nokia partnered with Microsoft. Nokia released it because Asha devices can still be sold at lower price points than WP7 devices... and of course because WP7 devices are stuck in 2011.

Asha probably won't go away completely until WP8 gets down to Asha price levels.

LMFAO. A $1.27 Billion dollar loss, sixth consecutive quarterly loss, and revenue down 19% is on the "up and up"? I'd hate to see when they on an downward spiral.

I once thought about stocks this way too, but that isn't how stocks work. Stock prices aren't based on a companies current financial situation, but on where the majority of investors expect a company to be headed.

If investors are expecting a loss of $1 billion, that expectation is priced into the stocks value. Should the company end up reporting "only" $500 million in losses, the stocks value will rise as a result. That is pretty much what happened here, or so analysts say (enjoy only with a healthy serving of salt)...

I think the NOK bears blinked, and already have or are at least contemplating becoming bulls.

 

[1jaxstate1]

I looked it up and yeah, they cheap models. I thought Nokia was going to make some super cheap WP device. Those Asha phones are selling pretty well.

Asha runs S40, and the latest iterations of Asha have full touch and have elements of the Swipe UI in MeeGo. Unfortunately, S40 looks dated and does not exactly have an active app ecosystem. Asha models are very cheap, and sells well in third world countries where they need a good phone with inbuilt services and cheap access to the internet.

Nokia Launches Asha 308 And 309; Prices Start From Rs 6200 | TechTree.com

WP is what Nokia wants to use in its premium smartphones, I will presume.

 

[1jaxstate1]

Don't see why they won't make old Lumia phones the new "low end" and sell them at $150 like the Asha phones. Unless Asha phone are way cheaper to make.

Stock prices are normally based on current situation and where they are headed. IDK where the stock is as of today, but I haven't seen any financial companies recommend buying Nokia stock in a long time. Maybe it'll drop so low to where people will be like "screw it, it's too cheap to pass up."

Asha is their Symbian based quasi-smartphone linup (also runs angry birds). It is a huge hit in developing nations (2nd world, not 3rd). Asha was in development long before Nokia partnered with Microsoft. Nokia released it because Asha devices can still be sold at lower price points than WP7 devices... and of course because WP7 devices are stuck in 2011.

Asha probably won't go away completely until WP8 gets down to Asha price levels.



I once thought about stocks this way too, but that isn't how stocks work. Stock prices aren't based on a companies current financial situation, but on where the majority of investors expect a company to be headed.

If investors are expecting a loss of $1 billion, that expectation is priced into the stocks value. Should the company end up reporting "only" $500 million in losses, the stocks value will rise as a result. That is pretty much what happened here, or so analysts say (enjoy only with a healthy serving of salt)...

I think the NOK bears blinked, and already have or are at least contemplating becoming bulls.

 

[mdameron]

The value of a company is not reflected by only its stock price. Volume matters. Apple is not 21 times the value of Microsoft. If you are buying because the price is "low", you are a bad investor and probably get caught up in penny stocks. 100 $1 shares is the same as 1 $100 share.

 

[a5cent]

Good. The people who don't know the company and strategy will jump off, making it cheaper for people like me. Hooray!

I wouldn't mind a lot of people exiting the NOK market either, so I was hoping for worse news from Nokia's Q3 financial report (I've been trading on the same strategy as you).

I'm thinking that phase of NOK trading has now passed though. Of course anything can happen, but I wouldn't count on NOK prices coming back down to $2.5

 

[Heron_Kusanagi]

I will note that Nokia seems to have plans for pushing WP way down, from the L510 rumors, to the rumors that have Nokia making a L610 successor with WP8. And volume is where Samsung is winning in smart devices and where Nokia still knows what to do as their volume in mobile devices is still stunning.

I will also say that for WP to be truly successful, it needs budget devices. Android did not get here by the likes of S3 and One X, it got here by the likes of the Ace. Windows got here by having volume at midrange and budget PCs. WP needs smooth, budget devices to steal the initiative from Android, and Nokia can be a big part of that drive alongside Huawei and ZTE.

 

[a5cent]

Don't see why they won't make old Lumia phones the new "low end" and sell them at $150 like the Asha phones. Unless Asha phone are way cheaper to make.

You are right, and that is exactly what Nokia is doing! I've been telling people for months now that WP7 will continue to exist well past the WP8 launch, but most were skeptical.

The cheapest WP7 device currently available has an unsubsidized price of $150 (the Nokia 510), but Nokia had to wait for Microsoft to release the Tango update for that to become possible. That Tango update has only been available for four months now however. Nokia needed something to offer in between... that is what Asha was for. Asha devices currently sell for $110. I'm confident we will see even cheaper WP7 devices down the road.

I don't know when Nokia will phase out Asha, but I'm guessing it won't happen until Nokia can get WP8 devices down to similar price points, because like I said, WP7 is stuck in 2011.

IDK where the stock is as of today, but I haven't seen any financial companies recommend buying Nokia stock in a long time. Maybe it'll drop so low to where people will be like "screw it, it's too cheap to pass up."

Stocks are never too cheap to pass up. They can always fall to zero when the company goes bankrupt.

There have always been a few financial institutions recommending to buy Nokia (not many, and usually the smaller ones). Search the web and you can find any number of contradictory recommendations:

Market Watch

12 buy recommendations
25 hold recommendations
26 sell recommendations

I expect you will see some of the hold and sell recommendations shift in the next few days.

 

[a5cent]

Another interesting read (more reasons why Nokia isn't doing as badly as everyone on Wall Street predicted):

Nokia Bears Fooled Again - Forbes

 

[1jaxstate1]

BGR: Nokia or RIM, who's in worse shape. Nokia, RIM strategy, financial analysis: Nokia worse off

 

[DungMasterFang]

BGR: Nokia or RIM, who's in worse shape. Nokia, RIM strategy, financial analysis: Nokia worse off

Added another 4k, now at 18 200. People need to realize that these drops in "value" are another buy opportunity if you had the vision of a certain price point all along. New information could change your vision, but I see the Q3 report as positive. The only thing bothering me is the bad Q4 forecast which to me seems a bit over the top. I'm expecting a positive warning in January. All 4 businesses aside from smart devices(damn you WP ) are in good shape and making profit. Nokia Siemens Networks are in great shape and making good profits and have great future prospects. NSN alone is worth 5$ per share if they make that kind of profit all year long. The amount of Nokia stocks being shorted(the people shorting it) is what manipulates the stock now. It's selling well below book value and just wait for the short squeeze.

If all this goes to **** I'll be saying "Just wait for the short squeeze" over and over again in the old folks home

 

[a5cent]

BGR: Nokia or RIM, who's in worse shape. Nokia, RIM strategy, financial analysis: Nokia worse off

In my view, that author is just another one of many know-nothing analysts (or at least he lacks the time or will to study Nokia which is what analysts are traditionally paid for). Such articles are a dime a dozen. The entire write-up is based solely on Nokia losing more money, QoQ than RIM. Really? I'm no financial analyst, but even I can do better than that!

-No analysis as to what Nokia's money is being spent on (recurring or not?).
-No mention of Nokia's return to non-IRFS profitability.
-No comment on Nokia's restructuring efforts.
-No mention of Nokia shrinking operational expenditures.
-No mention that very large companies (Nokia) will make much larger profits and losses than comparatively small ones (RIM)

You can't make a prediction of Nokia's financial outlook without considering all of the above. In the article you linked to, none of that is considered. Not a single one, which is why I have difficulty seeing any value in it whatsoever.

I didn't post my link simply as an example of one positive mention of Nokia. I posted is as an example of an analysis that is also worth reading. In general, the more information an analyst takes into account, the less dire their outlook on Nokia becomes (it's never all sunshine either of course). This is a pattern you can see repeated over and over again all over the internet.

 

[a5cent]

The amount of Nokia stocks being shorted(the people shorting it) is what manipulates the stock now. It's selling well below book value and just wait for the short squeeze.

The shorts are getting really nervous right about now.

As most of them are on Wall Street, I hope to send at least one or two of them to the food stamp lines

 

[VagrantWade]

LMFAO. A $1.27 Billion dollar loss, sixth consecutive quarterly loss, and revenue down 19% is on the "up and up"? I'd hate to see when they on an downward spiral.

Microsoft also lost 22% revenue. Not sure if you understand the principle of revenue. If you have a bunch of new products coming out, you will have a lot less revenue because of the R&D and production costs you just accrued.

 

[1jaxstate1]

Its too complicated for my tiny brain.

Forget the revenue. Their profits have been in the negative. Several consecutive quarters. MS doesn't have those problems

 

[pavvento]

Only in the tech world would a Forbes article be rebutted by a Boy Genius Article...

 

[1jaxstate1]

The BGR piece was a bloggers opinion. I don't think it was a rebuttle.

The numbers speak louder than what Forbes or anyone else has to say.

And the BGR article was only referencing the mobile industry, not the entire company.

 

[brmiller1976]

Good to see you coming round miller!

I'm not coming around THAT much. I think their strategy is still dopey. Just not FATALLY dopey.