Predict the Smartphone sales....

[snowmutt]

Okay, we have about 4 - 8 weeks until all the WP8 devices hit the ground running. We are all pumped, and have spent some time kicking around which device goes where. Let's get right down to brass tacks:

How many WP8's get sold from January through March? That will give device makers and carriers the holidays to get everything launched and all of the 1st quarter of 2013 to shake sales down. As a basis to play around, I looked up amount of devices sold in Q1 2011:

Gartner Says 428 Million Mobile Communication Devices Sold Worldwide in First Quarter 2011, a 19 Percent Increase Year-on-Year

Basically, 100,800,000 of the 428,000,000 were smart phones if you round up. So, WP7 sets at about 4% worldwide sales. Obviously, I believe 2013 sells more smart phones, but it's a round number. (I used 2011 due to the numbers I looked up from 2012 not being consistent. 2011 numbers seemed to jive in the couple of spots I checked.)


I am stupid optimistic, and I am saying WP8 jumps to at least 10% in that quarter. Therefore, I am saying 10,800,000 WP 8 devices get sold. (Yeah, yeah, I know WP7 devices will also still be sold and make up a percentage of WP sales, but I am just playing here.)

Sooo... How do I predict the sales breakdown?

1) Nokia 920 and variants- 5.6 million.

Why not? They are the phone with the most features, most support, and will be the only line guaranteed to get promotion from it's manufacturer as Nokia has the most to lose or gain by it's sales performance. By January I expect the 920, in some form or another, to be on twice as many carriers as at launch. Nokia's worldwide presence and name recognition also helps. I see the 920 as a home run, knock it out of the park, keep everyone at Nokia employed success.

2) HTC 8X- 1.9 Million

I am not the largest HTC fan, but I see the company fighting hard to get the 8X everywhere. Microsoft appeared onstage with them and gave them a public blessing at the 8X/8S announcement. The number of hits on websites, forums on fan sites, and the idea that HTC cannot afford anymore than Nokia to lose anymore sales translates into much better promotion and support. I see the 8X being a big hit and hopefully HTC's commitment remains strong with WP and Microsoft. I do not know if we have WP in it's present form if not for HTC and it's support the past 2 years.

3)Nokia 820 (810, 822, ect.) - 1.8 Million

Yes, a couple of these devices are different enough to be there own entry, but I am too lazy. Nokia's 1st effort at a WP8 2nd tier device is going to be everywhere. It will be affordable. Truly, it isn't that far off in features from it's big Brother 920. If you are not a huge photo enthusiast and can live without a HD screen, then the 820 is a steal. It even brings interchangeable backs to make it amusing and different. If HTC falters at all with promotion or support of the 8X, I see Nokia with an easy 1-2 finish.

4)Samsung ATIV- 800,000

Okay, I will admit to a little wishful thinking on this next statement: I am TRULY hoping this one I am wrong on. I see Sammy getting this on a ton of carriers and am HOPING they give it a little support. If so, it could easily become the WP hit Sammy hasn't seen since cut & paste was added. But, with Samsung's latest pet OS Tizen rumored to be launched in early 2013, Android being the worldwide money monster that it is for Sammy, and Samsung appearing to be way more interested in Windows RT and Pro tablets than anything WP8 (remember how they help up the ATIV S for about 22 seconds in the announcement a few months ago?), I may be just kidding myself. The ATIV is my second choice and I think it is a classy device. If supported and if Samsung brings a GS3 attitude and high end features I see it competing for 2nd place, most likely third. If not, Sammy lets it flounder and it finishes here or maybe even last behind...

5) HTC 8S- 700,000

I just do not see a ton of love or excitement behind this device. I LOVE the looks of it, and small screen users will rejoice there is a 4" option. But it just seems lackluster outside of the fun looks. It brings very little to the table, and so far it's availability is rumored to be.... What? U.S. Cellular and little else. I am sure it will be on a ton more carriers then just one, but what does it offer that the Nokia 820 series won't at the same price range? Very little, while the 820 has features to spare. Not seeing this as anything else but an also ran.

Well, there are my predictions. If I am wrong about anything, I hope it is the 10% worldwide sales. I could see a jump to maybe 12%, but that just seems unrealistic. Even a jump to 8% would be welcome. But the addition was easier at 10%.

Envision that over all 4 quarters of 2013, and we have lift off, Cape Canaveral.

Thoughts? Ideas? Hey, we have over a Month to kill here.....

 

[WasteSomeTime]

That's weird that Nokia could have the most sales since most people don't like them. I think they should just release the 920 and not even bother with the 820.

Sent from my SGH-i677 using Board Express

 

[ColeHarris]

If only phones sold based on how good they were, sadly tis not the case... I highly doubt the 920 will come to any other carrier than At&t in the US so maybe a million units to two million units would be likely. The 8X however will likely be present on almost all of the major players and with MS pushing it as the THE Windows Phone it'll likely outsell the 920 to the tune of 4-5 million. With Samsung's success with the GS3 and the hype surrounding the Note 2 the ATIV S will likely outsell them both simply because of Samsung's mindshare and the fact that it'll likely be on nearly every carrier.

So heres some numbers:

ATIV S: 5-6 million

HTC 8X: 4-5 million

Nokia Lumia 920: 1-2 million

Everything else (8S, 820, 810, 822): 1/2-1 million

Don't get me wrong I'd love the 920 to come to other carriers and smoke everyone else and be a huge success, I just dont think its going to happen. I'd love to be proved wrong though, I guess we'll just have to wait and see...

 

[Laura Knotek]

I actually see more Samsung WP8 sales in the US. Samsung has a reputation for quality hardware. I would choose a Samsung device rather than an HTC device even if I were purchasing an Android smartphone.

I know quite a few people who were disappointed with HTC build quality.

I am not sure how well Nokia WP8 will sell in the US compared to Samsung either. More people here are familiar with Samsung than with Nokia, especially since even in the days of feature phones Nokia never made any CDMA phones.

People also know Samsung for its other products beside smartphones. Samsung's TVs, cameras and appliances are popular too.

 

[astraith]

I believe Nokia will meet there own expectations. Assuming it's realistic. But if they do have 92x devices on Verizon, they will have a real winner.

Samsung seems to be the underdog but if they put there full force ... it will sell well.

HTC will do as well as they usually do. I feel they'll advertise more on this product then they did in the past.

But exact numbers I dont have a guess on.

 

[Daniel Ratcliffe]

That's weird that Nokia could have the most sales since most people don't like them. I think they should just release the 920 and not even bother with the 820.

Sent from my SGH-i677 using Board Express

Well as I want the removable battery it best come to the 920 if they aren't bothering with the 820... Else it's ATIV S for me... Or maybe a Droid.

 

[WasteSomeTime]

In the US I see more people buying products from Samsung then another oem.

Sent from my SGH-i677 using Board Express

 

[snowmutt]

I hope everyone understands I am curious to the feelings on the worldwide sales, not just US. No doubt if Nokia sold 5.6 Million in the US, WP would be more like 20% marketshare and Nokia would carry Elop off on their shoulders.

1-2 million US sales for the 920 would be fantastic and a monster win in one quarter.

I do agree with most everyone on this posting so far: IF Samsung put their weight behind the ATIV, I think it could really sell gang busters because it will be on a ton of carriers. But... will they?

And to @WasteSomeTime... do you really think the casual consumer hates Nokia? I do not. A quality, well supported device promoted by the carriers will compete with any OEM' device. I am not sure if cell phones are "hated" by anyone except for us cell phone geeks.

 

[snowmutt]

I actually see more Samsung WP8 sales in the US. Samsung has a reputation for quality hardware. I would choose a Samsung device rather than an HTC device even if I were purchasing an Android smartphone.

I know quite a few people who were disappointed with HTC build quality.

I am not sure how well Nokia WP8 will sell in the US compared to Samsung either. More people here are familiar with Samsung than with Nokia, especially since even in the days of feature phones Nokia never made any CDMA phones.

People also know Samsung for its other products beside smartphones. Samsung's TVs, cameras and appliances are popular too.

Huh.. Ya know Laura.. I never even thought about the advantage of name recognition of all the other products Samsung has aiding their cause. Makes total sense. Would also explain LG staying competitive despite some really poor efforts in the mobile industry the last few years- they also are everywhere in appliances and TV's and have name recognition.

Sometimes.... I can be real dumb.

 

[sentimentGX4]

I think Nokia will sell most WPs in the US by a large margin because it is pushing it hardest in terms of advertising and has a diverse portfolio of devices.

Samsung GSIII is huge but no one thinks of Samsung when discussing WP. Also, it's difficult to pitch one single high end device. Depending on how many carriers nab the ATIV S, it'd be a tossup between HTC and Samsung.

Probably something like
Nokia >>>>>> HTC > Samsung

 

[firewall2302]

I am not sure how well Nokia WP8 will sell in the US compared to Samsung either. More people here are familiar with Samsung than with Nokia, especially since even in the days of feature phones Nokia never made any CDMA phones.

I'm not sure about this. I would certainly say anyone in the US under the age of say 22 will probably not have had a Nokia previously. However, I'm 28 and my first phone was a Nokia - which is why I have such fond memories of them.

When it comes to quality, I would put Nokia right up there with Samsung. My TVs and monitors over the years have been Samsung so I stand by their quality of their electronics but I've also had my original Nokia go through a lot before. In fact, way back when I was in college I got hit by a truck while riding my bicycle to class with my Nokia strapped onto the shoulder strap of my backpack. With the way the truck hit me (while I was in the bike lane mind you) I pretty much faceplanted into the front fender and hood. When I pulled myself up off the ground and wasn't seriously hurt I noticed two things - the completely destroyed front wheel of my bike and the cell-phone shaped dent my Nokia left in the truck. I then used my perfectly unharmed phone to call my parents and tell them what had happened...

 

[Laura Knotek]

Huh.. Ya know Laura.. I never even thought about the advantage of name recognition of all the other products Samsung has aiding their cause. Makes total sense. Would also explain LG staying competitive despite some really poor efforts in the mobile industry the last few years- they also are everywhere in appliances and TV's and have name recognition.

Sometimes.... I can be real dumb.

I would not say you are dumb at all. A company might be involved in different businesses than mobile phones yet still not be doing well.

Sony is pretty much tanking in all areas of its business.

Just having a diversified business is no guarantee of success.

 

[Coreldan]

I somehow have my doubts about ATIV selling all that well except maybe through being available on more carriers in the US. It seems to sport a huge price tag without really the hardware to justify it. I can admit to being a Nokia ******, but I can look at things objectively, and tbh I'm not seeing the ATIV warrant the same price as the 920.

I'm not saying it's a bad phone or anything, it's just that in most ways the 920 seems just so much better. That said, IF removable battery, SD slot and a tad bigger screen are very important values to a person, then the ATIV is a natural choice, but other than that hardware wise the 920 seems to have way more to make me pay that high price.

Also yeah, once again we have to be really careful what we assume, but I understand that some who are from the US here havn't really seen it otherwise. Nokia has always been really big in Europe and Asia, but not so much in the USA. Europe also has more people than the US, so it's not like it's a small market to ignore in terms of Nokias success.

Anyways, I also agree that some 10% global marketshare would be an epic win at this point. WP8 isnt gonna kill Android or iOS in years and most likely not even then, but if it can become a viable competitor, we're well off already and it does need a 2 figure marketshare at the very least. The thing sorta feeds itself.. when we just have enough WP8 devices out there, they will advertise themselves in the hands of normal customers.

That said, I could imagine the HTC doing well. It's signifigantly cheaper than the ATIV and 920 from what we know at the moment, while specs wise being a good enough competitor. I see it has a pretty good price/performance/feature ratio and at least early on people might be hesitant to buy the most expensive devices for a new OS. Also the availability might be better in the US than the 920 as well as still offering some choice in colours etc. It also has it's few things where it's better than it's competitors, I suppose. I really like the design too! Aware tecchies might know HTCs trackrecord and avoid em, but your average Joe most likely doesnt and if the devices is lucrative enough by its exterior and price, it might just sell pretty well!

 

[snowmutt]

@firewall2302 comment #11-

THIS would make an awesome freaking 920 commercial!!

 

[snowmutt]

I somehow have my doubts about ATIV selling all that well except maybe through being available on more carriers in the US. It seems to sport a huge price tag without really the hardware to justify it. I can admit to being a Nokia ******, but I can look at things objectively, and tbh I'm not seeing the ATIV warrant the same price as the 920.

I'm not saying it's a bad phone or anything, it's just that in most ways the 920 seems just so much better. That said, IF removable battery, SD slot and a tad bigger screen are very important values to a person, then the ATIV is a natural choice, but other than that hardware wise the 920 seems to have way more to make me pay that high price.

Also yeah, once again we have to be really careful what we assume, but I understand that some who are from the US here havn't really seen it otherwise. Nokia has always been really big in Europe and Asia, but not so much in the USA. Europe also has more people than the US, so it's not like it's a small market to ignore in terms of Nokias success.

Anyways, I also agree that some 10% global marketshare would be an epic win at this point. WP8 isnt gonna kill Android or iOS in years and most likely not even then, but if it can become a viable competitor, we're well off already and it does need a 2 figure marketshare at the very least. The thing sorta feeds itself.. when we just have enough WP8 devices out there, they will advertise themselves in the hands of normal customers.

That said, I could imagine the HTC doing well. It's signifigantly cheaper than the ATIV and 920 from what we know at the moment, while specs wise being a good enough competitor. I see it has a pretty good price/performance/feature ratio and at least early on people might be hesitant to buy the most expensive devices for a new OS. Also the availability might be better in the US than the 920 as well as still offering some choice in colours etc. It also has it's few things where it's better than it's competitors, I suppose. I really like the design too! Aware tecchies might know HTCs trackrecord and avoid em, but your average Joe most likely doesnt and if the devices is lucrative enough by its exterior and price, it might just sell pretty well!

Yeah, I think 10%-15% worldwide sales in 2013 is the tipping point. Hit that, and Nokia begins to rebound, HTC and Samsung are successful enough in WP to stay on, developers (especially local developers of like news/weather feeds and smaller businesses) get excited and other manufacturers start taking notice. For the sake of Nokia, the first quarter would be best- I think Elop stays put through the end of 2013 and his vision of Nokia as a WP device maker says. If WP languishes in single digits, he may be out by mid-2013 and all bets for WP and it's future are off.

 

[AngryNil]

I think you're a bit optimistic regarding Nokia.

That's weird that Nokia could have the most sales since most people don't like them.

Nice to see you've regressed from veiled swipes to plain trolling. Do you also find it weird that Nokia is destroying HTC and Samsung in WP sales right today?

 

[freestaterocker]

That's weird that Nokia could have the most sales since most people don't like them. I think they should just release the 920 and not even bother with the 820.

Sent from my SGH-i677 using Board Express

Only in the US--which is a relatively small market globally--does most of the public not like/care about Nokia. Also, lower range handsets sell in higher numbers than flagships. With Android's rumored 1 million global activations/day or whatever stupid number it is, I would bet less than 1% of those are the GS3s and One Xs of the world.

 

[sentimentGX4]

Only in the US--which is a relatively small market globally--does most of the public not like/care about Nokia.

The US isn't a relatively small market globally. Maybe in the narrow view that it isn't one of the countries with the most handsets sold; but, from the perspective of countries where high margin handsets are sold, the US definitely makes up >40% of the market.

That is why companies like RIM and Nokia are fighting so hard to regain turf in North America. Do you honestly think Asia + Africa + South America is as lucrative as the United States? Not close.

Also, companies want to move flagships because these are the highest margin devices. Apple doesn't envy Samsung for selling a bunch of $300 smartphones. It's not planning to compete with Samsung in all those places in the globe where margins are low.

 

[brmiller1976]

I think the projections making the 920 the top seller are inverted.

The 920 will be a slow seller, it will be the 8S and 82X that will constitute the bulk of global shipments. I'll post my little Excel when I have time.

 

[snowmutt]

The US isn't a relatively small market globally. Maybe in the narrow view that it isn't one of the countries with the most handsets sold; but, from the perspective of countries where high margin handsets are sold, the US definitely makes up >40% of the market.

That is why companies like RIM and Nokia are fighting so hard to regain turf in North America. Do you honestly think Asia + Africa + South America is as lucrative as the United States? Not close.

Also, companies want to move flagships because these are the highest margin devices. Apple doesn't envy Samsung for selling a bunch of $300 smartphones. It's not planning to compete with Samsung in all those places in the globe where margins are low.

There is a huge gamble in shooting for high end devices though.

HTC fell into this, and so did LG to an extent. HTC was all in on premium devices, saying in 2011 they were out of the feature phone device market, and went nearly all high end Android where the profit per handset is greater. Needless to say, if those devices do not sell well, the loss per handset is also greater, which explains HTC's amazingly quick decent in corporate profits. LG has never turned away from the feature phone production, but theydid turn away from the Optimus series being lower budget and tried to produce premium devices as well- 3D phones, high end LTE, ECT. Their decent has been slower, but none the less painful.

Nokia's Asha series has kept needed cash flow coming in. Samsung loves the cheap handset market- they flood their devices on all price points. It is vital to be succesful on all price points.

This is something Apple is learning as well. They continue pushing 2 year old iPhones to the free or really cheap on contract market. They are prepping the iPad mini in direct response to the Kindle Fire and cheaper Android tablets sales. Yes, they push the iPhone as a premium device, but no other OEM can get away with that. They need all markets.

Yes, Nokia needs the US market, but I think they will. I actually think the Asia, China, and developing markets are more important due to Nokia being able to turn a better profit per handset with WP then they could with Symbian. The recovery will be faster if they get the market to respond to their "Tango" and low end devices.