Predicting the (actually very exciting) future of Xbox hardware

Papictu

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For me what has made ecosystems like Xbox or Playstation attractive is precisely the advantage of having everything unified: profile, achievements, library...

To me this smells terrible, it's just my opinion and there will be those who see advantages in this mainly, but depending on how they solve details such as achievements or digital purchases, after 20 years playing on Xbox I think it will become a place where I do not want to be.
 
Jun 24, 2023
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Consoles have felt like they've been in a rut since they started and I think that shows with how they're performing after all this time. In every way, they should've become a popular gateway into a new medium of entertainment. They didn't. In fact, in a lot of ways gaming has grown beyond the home console and left it behind. Consoles struggle to pick up 200 million users in a lifetime (and by struggle, I mean they fall short of it by quite a large margin (with said margin varying each generation (for example Nintendo's home consoles have historically flopped every other generation (gamecube sold 20 million, Wii sold 100 million, WiiU sold 13 million (oof)...)))). All the billions of gamers are on PC and Mobile. The AAA gaming industry is really starting to feel this disconnect to as costs continue to rise and there's not a ton more people to sell to with high end PC gaming being expensive and consoles still not taking off (rather it seems like they peaked at a rather low altitude).

Speaking from personal experience, I have to say I HATED consoles growing up. Well, that's a major hyperbole. I hated consoles when I started to grow up. As a kid, it was literally all fun and games. There were a lot of us siblings so we'd get every console and share. As I got older though, I started to notice that the console market was uniquely... kinda terrible. My life was increasingly dotted with smartphones, tablets, and PCs and all the digital technologies, and I couldn't help but notice that for everything else I was into... there were very few walls. I could start a Netflix movie on my phone and finish it on my TV picking up exactly where I left off. I could also download content to any device Netflix was on. As time went on I could even download and play mobile games across devices and transfer save data. When I bought a DVD I could watch it on literally any device with a DVD player and then they started selling ditigal codes so you'd have the physical DVD and the digital copy and then they also started up movies anywhere and you can access your digital movie library on any device. I noticed more and more that the consoles offered the polar opposite experience. We STILL don't even have free cloud saves across the board (only Xbox does it). I started to hate consoles and vehemently hate exclusives as I just wanted that experience which I knew was possible because I got it on every other tech platform. I wanted games to be more widely available across the board and I wanted to be able to play wherever and access my library and be able to seamlessly pick up where I left off. I grew very bitter playing video games on consoles knowing they were so anti consumer compared to the rest of the tech in my life. I grew up in an iPhone family and even the iPhone wasn't as locked down as consoles (in fact, as I kid I didn't even recognize it was a closed ecosystem even when with people who used Android whereas it was glaringly obvious with consoles). It reached a critical point when the Xbox One and PS4 initially launched. As always I got every console (over the course of multiple Christmases and birthdays). At first I took not being able to play my 360 and PS3 games as business as usual (I had been playing consoles as old as the Nintendo 64 due to my family), but as time passed I got really, really frustrated with it. The critical point was when Playstation sold PS Now and game streaming as their solution (and my mom not really knowing what it was bought me a few months of it as a gift). It was god awful at the time (streaming was not remotely good enough for gaming TEN YEARS AGO) and felt like such an insult. That's when it really hit me that these companies were choosing to do this. They could give consumers a better, more open, more cohesive, and more valuable experience where everything is as widely available as in other markets but just don't because they're afraid no one would want their box. They failed to properly market a product worth buying and instead keep selling me a ball & chain trap using exclusive games as bait. And I was done with it.

I very nearly stopped gaming entirely as that generation went on. I just was not gaming as much, and didn't really know how to get into PC gaming so it felt like the end. And I've seen my siblings move on from gaming and I always went to school knowing most people didn't game at all on consoles, and it felt like I was starting to get why after so many years of gaming being my favorite form of entertainment (well either gaming or reading). That was when Xbox started to come out with its native backwards compatibility program, PC initiative, and Xbox Play Anywhere. I have to tell you even before I knew how to game on PC, I got excited by that. Xbox was actually doing something to create unique value for it's customers and not just dangle shiny games in front of a mouse trap to try and get people locked into the most walled garden in the digital landscape. It made me enjoy gaming again even when I couldn't take advantage of it. I similarly just felt better about gaming when I saw stuff like Xbox putting Ori on Switch and Xbox pushing for cross play whereas Playstation was against it. Then I really got into gamepass.

It's felt a little sad and disappointing to me seeing how poorly the Xbox fan base has reacted to this generation. To each their own, but I've been estatic at most every move Xbox has made. Having grown up a lot and learned a lot more about business and marketing, I really REALLY think they're messaging, consistency, and execution desperately need work, but the general concept of what is happening I love. Xbox Cloud Gaming is what I wanted PS Now to be. Something that takes advantage of streaming and puts it on devices that can't handle my games instead of a roundabout solution to backwards compatibility that cost $20 a month (though streaming on Sony TVs was neat (I actually made my mom buy a Sony TV for the family room when she upgraded and we still use that TV 10+ years later)). Xbox Game Pass Ultimate eventually got me into PC gaming (a little through a bad old gaming laptop and now a LOT through my Steam deck and Legion Go (steam deck got me into Steam, but I really can't go back from my legion go and having access to Xbox Play Anywhere, PC game pass, cloud gaming, AND steam and any other launcher)). And I am genuinely more happy gaming knowing that Xbox is pushing for an initiative of our games everywhere and supporting digital libraries in ways that are next level compared to other platforms. Just the other day I went on reddit, saw a post that Xenoverse 2 was made Xbox Play Anywhere (it wasn't when it launched), and downloaded that sucker on my legion go. People are scared about digital libraries and I'm lost there because Xbox is the console least likely to make you lose access to your games. Nintendo and PlayStation have historically given gamers the middle finger when it came to game preservation and backwards compatibility. It was inconsistent even within the same console generation (take the Wii for example: the first model launched able to play GameCube games but overtime subsequent models lost this feature). Xbox was the same, but proved that in the One generation (well... later in the One generation) they had a dedication to native backwards compatibility (supporting games we owned in previous gens on disc or digitally). One of my favorite things with the series S|X were how they elevated that with FPS boosts for 360 era games. Wish they just did more of it. Even when Xbox announced games going to other platforms, much like Ori I was happy about the move. Again, marketing and messaging and strategy execution deserve criticism, but at the end of the day I'm somehow who LIKES when good art (and video games are art to me; there's a reason why they are my favorite entertainment medium) can be enjoyed by more people.

I really would like to live in the world where Xbox is praised for leading the charge into changing the console market and gaming industry on the whole into what it should have been eons ago. And maybe we will some day. I've like the meat and core of everything Xbox has done this generation. It has me gaming more than I ever did before (even more than when I was a kid) and enjoying it more than I ever have. Last generation had me feeling hopelessness regarding game. I had despaired that it would always remain as it was, and at the time I saw what it was as nothing but an insult to my worth as a consumer and the worth of video games as an artistic medium to share valuable and just fun experiences with people. Now, I CAN say that I am excited for where gaming is going.

All that said, Microsoft could 100% fumble. OEMs are difficult to handle and we've seen the mess on windows. I would argue that Xbox console hardware should remain proprietary, but Microsoft should work to bring a more Xbox like experience to Windows. Don't make Xbox more windows based, make windows more Xbox based. Then companies like Lenovo can sell gaming devices with an Xbox brand but are still windows PCs just maybe with an Xbox gaming mode like SteamOS (having a Linux desktop mode and steam gaming mode). Overall, make improvements to gaming on windows and bring it under an Xbox branding UX/UI umbrella. This is partially being done with the current Xbox game bar which in compact mode pulls up recently played games across launchers/storefronts and let's you open them or any launcher right from the XBOX game bar menu. Console hardware should remain a proprietary experience though, just with greater connection to other platforms (like with more play anywhere games). Consoles should remain a consistent experience and don't need the full windows gunk. They also do need to stay something that Microsoft can sell at a subsidized cost. The series S would NOT be possible at its price and power if it was a gaming laptop running full windows.
 
Jun 24, 2023
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(I was told I wrote too much so now it's too posts; this one is kinda the tl;dr). Regardless, the future of gaming overall is exciting. I just hope, consoles reap some of the benefit they deserve. Like I want people to actually want to buy consoles because they're a good valued piece of hardware with a great ecosystem and no other reason. The Xbox Series S should be in every household. For $200 to $350 (pending sales) you get a small compact home entertainment device that can play any modern game with a massive library of backwards compatible games it can run better than the hardware it originally released on, AND have access to every streaming service or ditigal entertainment app one would buy an apple TV for. It is a little more expensive, but opens up a doorway to a whole new form of entertainment. I really want to live in the world where more people game, where I can game in more places with the same library, and where I can game knowing more people have access to fantastic Even if Xbox can't accomplish that know for whatever reasons, they were the spark and fanned the flames. Valve is hot on their toes to build that very same ecosystem. Sony is only going to do more multiplatform releases and even Nintendo seems to be at least slightly more consistently supporting game preservation and backwards compatibility (we'll see... expectations are low for Nintendo but eventually (like a long eventually) even they'll start doing more multiplatform and making games more available. Sony is also tackling cloud gaming much better this time around and seems more interested in portable hardware that isn't separate from their home console (unlike the vita) or just a remote play device, but rather let's you natively play your library away from the home consoles, which would be especially cool as to pull this off they'd also need to start doing free cloud saves. Whereas Xbox is looking closer than ever to copying PC and getting rid of paid multiplayer As a gamer, I can't imagine wanting to live in any other time (okay, I could imagine it for pricing; costs need to go down, but that's a much more widespread issue... WHY HAVE GROCERIES GOTTEN SO EXPENSIVE 😭). Anyway, that's my Ted Talk. If you read all the way to the end, wow. Get a life. Go play some games. Again, the website itself told me to get my essay out of here. Clearly I need to be gaming 🤣.
 

GraniteStateColin

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Consoles have felt like they've been in a rut since they started and I think that shows with how they're performing after all this time. In every way, they should've become a popular gateway into a new medium of entertainment. They didn't. In fact, in a lot of ways gaming has grown beyond the home console and left it behind. Consoles struggle to pick up 200 million users in a lifetime (and by struggle, I mean they fall short of it by quite a large margin (with said margin varying each generation (for example Nintendo's home consoles have historically flopped every other generation (gamecube sold 20 million, Wii sold 100 million, WiiU sold 13 million (oof)...)))). All the billions of gamers are on PC and Mobile. The AAA gaming industry is really starting to feel this disconnect to as costs continue to rise and there's not a ton more people to sell to with high end PC gaming being expensive and consoles still not taking off (rather it seems like they peaked at a rather low altitude).

...

You clearly have a passion for this, which I respect. I think I agree with your point that Windows should become more Xbox like, rather than the other way around, IF by that you mean Xbox retains its simplicity and Windows gains something like an Xbox app that effectively lets Windows run/play Xbox games.

I disagree that OEMs are a problem for Windows or would be for Xbox. HP, Dell, Lenovo, Asus, Acer, and others have made wonderful Windows PC's and the success of Windows is due in large part to their work. As long as MS defines specs for what will be an Xbox so there is no user-impacting fragmentation and confusion over what systems can play which games, I thing that having competing manufactures is only helpful, as it has been with PC's.
 
Jun 24, 2023
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I disagree that OEMs are a problem for Windows or would be for Xbox. HP, Dell, Lenovo, Asus, Acer, and others have made wonderful Windows PC's and the success of Windows is due in large part to their work. As long as MS defines specs for what will be an Xbox so there is no user-impacting fragmentation and confusion over what systems can play which games, I thing that having competing manufactures is only helpful, as it has been with PC's.
I hear you and do agree that competiting manufactures leads to some great outcomes as well. My concern is that rather than windows becoming more like Xbox (where gaming is simple and often times "just works") we risk seeing the opposite with Xbox taking on the worst traits of Windows PCs, that is the clunk. Like right now the big Windows Update has been out for weeks and it keeps running into problems on different hardware or with different software. Now, I will say Microsoft is at fault here for not doing a better job at maintaining their windows ecosystem with all the different types of hardware, but that's also partially the issue. Will Xbox start repeating those same mistakes if they go the OEM route? Then there's also the issue PC gaming has where sometimes hardware requires specific software updates from the manufacturer due to certain configurations which is yet another point in which everything can go wrong.

There's definitely pros and cons to each. I mean using Windows PCs for example, there is a reason why Mac users are happy in their closed ecosystem where Apple controls everything from the hardware to the operating system and they can expect a little more consistent experience. That's not what I prefer personally, but I can see the argument for it. My thoughts are that if Xbox keeps the Xbox console as a first party experience where they handle the hardware and operating system, then they can keep console gaming consistent and easy to use for those who want it. On the other hand for those who want more options and are willing to navigate the potential problems that might arise with that, windows can just be made to offer a far, far better gaming experience overall. And ideally Xbox play anywhere will have expanded greatly so that no matter where you play, your library and saves will be there.

That's the best of both worlds in my eyes with the reality in mind that Microsoft isn't perfect and that more variables tend to add more potential problems. Otherwise, if we were in a perfect world I'd love hardware manufacturers competing with each other to offer better value for their "Xbox console" (though we'd also run into the issue of pricing as these manufacturers couldn't offset costs at all with software sales).
 

fjtorres5591

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The assumption being made that for XBOX to be more Windows compatible it must run off Windows just isn't necessarily the only way to get there from here.

XBOX runs a Windows-derived OS atop a hypervisor but the hardware is not limited to running just the "XBOX OS". Developer mode allows booting into a different PC-like OS. That is how retro game emulators can be installed and run.

Nothing says the next XBOX (or even the current ones) can't boot up a custom gaming-only Windows version (WindowsG?) or even SteamOS or that a general availability version of the core Hypervisor can be installed on generic gaming PCs with a minimum of Series S capabilities. The latter would allow OEM PCs that can cross boot into the walled XBOX garden from the open Windows environment and the former could allow traditionally locked consoles to boot into " anything goes" compatibility modes.

The issues games have don't all come from the gaming-specific Windows components but often from the rest of the Windows OS, the parts that support non-windows apps. A gaming-focused Windows release can strip out all non-gaming Windows functions much like "Lite" unofficial Windows versions do. Windows is built to be all things to all people but it doesn't have to be and a version of full Windows that can reboot into a lean gaming only configuration (not XBOX OS) would address many of the issues gamers have on Windows handhelds and, for that matter gaming laptops and desktops.

One comment from Sarah Bond that led to much head scratching and has since been forgotten is when she announced the formation of a team for *forward compatibility*. What exactly might that mean? Well, one answer is the ability to crossboot up a Windows-compatible OS. Think on it: Xboxes are effectively entry-level gaming PCs so such a move would only be acknowledging that reality.

More, it would mean that the next gen XBOX would debut with tens of millions (60M?) installed base on day one. Normally the first wave of new generation console games are designed to be crossgen because of the low installed base of the new boxes but if the hardware itself is crossgen that problem goes away.

Developers would have but one *scalable* build to maintain. Unlike current Windows games where Scalability is optional, next gen scalability would be required and desirable to address the entry level of consoles and handhelds. Instead of being an outlier, INDIANA JONES' scalability of RT features would be the norm. Good for console gamers, who get to keep their existing hardware longer, good for PC gamers who get a access to the deep XBOX game library and a stable floor for PC games, and good for developers who save costs and get an enlarged market for a single release. In addition to the usual fine-grained settings, games could choose a console setting to start with and then fine tune upwards based on the hardware.

Making XBOX Windows compatible (and yes, optionally SteamOS compatible--for a fee, of course) would make both hardware platforms better. And provide a compelling case for both MS and OEM products on a common "this is an XBOX" ecosystem.

It can be done.
Will it be done?
TBD.
 

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