But today, assuming that Xbox is no longer going to have its own exclusive games that bring value and with the problem of developer support still very present, many games are not coming or are coming late, I don't see the point in continuing to bet on Xbox, and if people start to not use the Xbox platform, then even less games will be released on Xbox.
That's why I think the Xbox platform, with hardware sales shattered and not seeing significant growth on PC/cloud, is at its worst moment.
Clarify that I'm talking about the platform, not the software or games, which I think in terms of studios and own developments Xbox is better than ever.
That is one big assumption you have there.
Especially since since barely a week ago Mr Spencer clearly stated the XBOX platform would *still* have exclusives. And it is not a matter of interpretation, online "insider" rumor, or pundit projection. A corporate executive bound to state the literal truth under threat of SEC intervention said it in no uncertain terms.
Now, he might have been referring to time limited exclusives (like DEATH STRANDING, GHOSTWIRE TOYKO, FINAL FANTASY 16, ETC) but those count too. As of today, AVOWED is exclusive with no announced plan to change that, STARFIELD, the object of much pining is still console exclusive after 18 months and one DLC plus hundreds of mods, free and paid (which means it is a live service game), SOUTH OF MIDNIGHT was just featured along with 4 other multiplatform games, as an exclusive. And HELLBLADE 2, a sequel to a multiplatform game is still exclusive after a year. Still coming are FABLE and PERFECT DARK. When? Depends on GTA VI because between that and the next COD the second half of the year will be murder on other releases. Which is MS is front loading their exclusives.
Try this: what previously exclusive games has XBOX been sending to SONY? (which seems to be what is causing all this panic among the fen)
Well, HI FI RUSH, which "sold so well" MS divested the studio and gave away the IP.
SEA OF THIEVES, a (then) six year old live service game,
GROUNDED, a three year old online coop game, and PENTIMENT a very niche labor of love of (apparently) limited appeal.
Four experiments, different kinds of games, to see what appealed to the other platform's gamers.
SEA OF THIEVES sold very well, a million the first year and is regularly in the top most played games over there. Still raking it in, just like on PC and XBOX.
HI FI RUSH sold as well as on XBOX. Not very. Validating the divestiture and serving as a caution to take game media critic recommendation with a grain of salt.
GROUNDED and PENTIMENT seem to have done okay at launch but didn't exactly set the world on fire.
Lessons learned?
Some games will travel, some will not.
What travels best seems to be time sink live service games. Which on that platform consume 70% of gamers engagement (and money) according to published reports from CIRCANA data. Of which only one isn't on XBOX.
So what else is MS sending over?
FORZA HORIZON (not MOTORSPORT) a four year old live service game.
AGE OF EMPIRES II DEFINITIVE EDITION, an update of a 26 year old live service time sink, and AGE OF MYTHOLOGY RETOLD, an update to the 23 year old game.
Anything else?
Well, OUTER WORLDS 2, the sequel for a multiplatform game from before MS bought OBSIDIAN. Which falls in with CALL OF DUTY, DOOM, and dozens of games that have always been multiplatform. Which Mr Spencer said would remain multiplatform because MS is not interested in taking away games from anybody. (what? And give up the money?)
Now there is a lot of pining and wishful thinking from speculators and (to be blunt, shills and click baiters) about more XBOX games moving. And they might. Or they might not. There is no official announcement and until there is all we have is,Mr Spencer's words. Unless he is a liar and stock manipulator we have to accept that:
Some games will go to other platforms.
Some will remain exclusive.
XBOX will still make hardware and they intend it to be the preferred platform for their games.
And GAME PASS, which is the most exclusive of exclusives, is still adding subscribers, of which two thirds were on console in 2023. Best guess 34 Million.
MS is big outfit. They can do two things at once, build exclusives alongside multiplatform. They always have regardless what the FUDers claim.
(And if you go back to the 360 days you may remember VIVA PIÑATA going to NINTENDO. As did GOLDENEYE recently. Back in the day, MS made games for ATARI and COMMODORE and APPLE. as well as for PC.)
So no, the 5 year old boxes aren't moving fast in what may be their last year before the nextbox is introduced. And sales have fallen short of the 360 era because of the pandemic supply chain issues and, to be blunt, MS diverting chips to build out the cloud servers, to fortify the platform.
As to developer support, who do you see walking away from XBOX?
What I see is developers who took SONY'S money to stay off XBOX finding sales falling short (SQUARE ENIX gave away studios because they couldn't afford to keep them while they developed new games) and are even buying back publishing rights from SONY to take their games to XBOX.
Remember when the PERSONA games were PlayStation only?
Final Fantasy?
Now they not only come to XBOX, they show up on GAME PASS. Some on day one.
The competition? Those fabled exclusives that are supposed to sell hardware? recent ones don't even sell to 8% of their installed base.
The much hyped GOTY didn't even reach 3%.
So yes, they have a lot of boxes but most of the time they are playing multiplatform games also on XBOX and in fact, they are playing games owned by Microsoft. 7 now, 10 by summer. And only one isn't on XBOX.
Numbers leaked recently show that while Playstation in 2023 grossed more than XBOX they made *less* net? And thst was XBOX without ABK.
Not leaked, but officially reported, their profit margin was 5% in FY24 and FY25 is running at 4%, like a supermarket? EA is 14%, ABK alone was 17%, and XBOX without ABK was 12%. XBOX isn't dying.
Neither is Sony but they have serious cash flow problems. Which is why they're consolidating back end units and closing studios.
After pivoting to live service games and targeting 12 by 2026 they've cancelled 8? And only one looks to be out by next year. So don't expect things to change for at least 4 years as they recently promised to deliver *one* first party exclusive every year.
XBOX is currently at three and has been targeting 4 a year from their 100 studios.
That is in addition to their dozen ongoing live service games (with at least two more coming) and cadre of multiplayer franchises and the billion dollars a year to bring third party games to GAME PASS, often on day one (like SNIPER ELITE, ETERNAL STRANDS, EXPEDITION 33, and NINJA GAIDEN). They're rolling in dough and investing it to grow the platform.
If you aren't comfortable on XBOX you can move. You should. It's your right.
But don't say the platform is dying.
It is not. It is evolving and getting stronger. That includes the hardware. Expect 3 models, at least, next time.
Putting games on other hardware isn't a sign of weakness but of strength, sucking money out of the competition's installed base when they are at the weakest and closing studios because they can't afford to keep them open. Because the old XBOX games are better than what their gamers are getting and not buying.
There is a lot of FUD being spread out there by people who see the industry changing, long held assumptions collapsing, and MICROSOFT not only prospering from the changes, but encouraging them. Because they saw them coming, prepared for them, and are working to lap the competition.
If you can, wait a year until you see what the NEXTXBOX is like.
One thing it won't be is 10% better costing $900.
Going by the veiled hints and statements from the people whose neck is on the line it will be a lot more like the original XBOX. Worth waiting for.
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