I think the fact of the matter is that we are in a post-saturation mobile phone market now in the west.
So people don't buy phones or change them just for the "upgrade" any more. And increasingly they aren't buying a flagship when they do, but something more like a xiaomi or similar.
So it's really a matter of 'does it still work satisfactorily'? If the answer is yes, they keep the phone. If the answer is no, they look for one that does but doesn't cost too much.
So don't be surprised if some people hang onto their phone for many more years, until it breaks or the app they need isn't there. That's just how the market works now.
And if they do change their phone, don't be surprised if they don't buy a Samsung, or a iPhone, or whatever flagship phone enthusiasts are pimping, with it's new mega-ram, or special camera - and just buy one that does what they want, and nothing they don't.
I feel like my phone will last well until after andromeda is released. I've always been more of a tablet or PC user than a smartphone user anyway. So for me, something like that is a perfect fit.
It's a funny time really for mobile OSes, in that regard. We are between a universal app platform for light apps in the form of PWA, and the old way of doing things. The smartphone market is starting to show signs of it's inevitable wind down.
We are likely a decade from any new affordable consumer features that really push adoption again. More like incremental tech that people don't give a rats about. Any modern phone is fast enough for most consumers. People don't use power apps on phones anyway. And all the big players are making hybrid OSes.
So we are really at a time when smartphone tech has become stale. Nothing noteworthy new is coming out. The OSes will all eventually be replaced. The app systems will largely be replaced. It's actually a very good time to just stick with what works and be meh about the whole thing. As far as tech goes, it's just not where the excitement or real progress is anymore. That's more like AR, VR, AI, IoT, hybrid OS, natural language and things that will take a long time to fully come to market.
At least PC users can still be excited about what their PC can do in terms of VR, gaming, power software. You don't need the extra power at all for the basic OS, but there's still reason to be hyped about the upgrade. Same with big screen TVs - they still offer some palpable advantages over older TVs. Smart features, better display.
For something that has a tiny screen, spends most of it's like being used to check facebook, or navigate to your date, it's not really very exciting to have a slight processor bump, or a resolution hike. Maybe an amateur photographer could still find the odd thing to be excited about, or a casual gamer, or some IoT hobbyist (lol @ microtransactions and the general quality of mobile games, btw), but there really isn't much for any every day person to give a ___ about.