- May 30, 2014
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I just wanted to clear this up because I've been seeing a lot of people saying this over the past week since Windows 10 debuted. Windows 10 has a lot of issues. It's less usable than Windows 8.1 on tablets; battery life on laptops and tablets is lower; there are UI mismatches the second you attempt to use a legacy app, or sometimes even an old WinRT app; a lot of people have upgrade issues; and there are huge concerns about privacy and how much data Microsoft is vacuuming for telemetry and advertisement.
None of these issues, NONE, is because Windows 10 is free. Windows 10 isn't finished out of the gate because Microsoft is "losing" money with and so had to scale back on their engineers. Windows 10 doesn't send data to Microsoft because Microsoft is losing money and needs to make it up by monetising their users.
Let's do a little math. Historically (at least since Vista) a smaller and smaller fraction of people upgrade the operating system on their PCs. They simply use the OS that comes with it and then get a new OS when they buy a new PC. Let's assume that about 2 million people worldwide upgrade their PCs when a new one is released. I believe this is a serious over-estimate, but you're welcome to disagree. Now we'll assume that a good chunk of these people are upgrading to Pro, because Pro users are more likely to follow tech news and want all the bells and whistles like Active Directory, Domain support, Bitlocker, etc. We'll round up and say all of the 2 million bought Pro. This means that 2 million people would have spent $130 each, giving us $260 million.
In Q3 2015 Microsoft generated $21.73 billion dollars with a profit of $6.6 billion. In Q4 2015 Microsoft generated $22.2 billion dollars in revenue, but lost $3.2 billion due to the Nokia write-down. These numbers are for 3 month-quarters. Microsoft generates 85 times more money in 3 months than they would get from one-time Windows upgrades across 4 years! (average time between Windows releases). Removing poor investment decisions, Microsoft makes in profit 25 times(!) the money they would make from these one-time Windows upgrades.
People upgrading their PCs have never been a source of money for Microsoft. They make their money from volume licensing to OEMs and Enterprises and from support. With Windows 10, arguably Microsoft's last hail-mary in the mobile world, they needed as many people as possible on the OS to cut support costs and to move forward with their 1-OS vision. And judging from the numbers (67 million this week) they're succeeding. Apple does the same thing. The more people use your new OS, the more likely developers are to support your new APIs and you suddenly have more money to spend on new features instead of maintaining legacy due to stubborn consumers.
Windows 10 is free because Microsoft wants all of us on it as soon as possible. Windows 10 is unfinished/buggy because Microsoft wants all of us on it as soon as possible. The sooner they released Windows 10 the sooner that was going to happen. Microsoft is not losing any appreciable amount of money by making it free, at least not the kind they can make up for by customising ads to your use habits. They are simply jumping on the connected device bandwagon.
Could they abuse their power and spy on you? Possibly. Could the US government ask extra-judiciously for data on you and have Microsoft give it to them? Yes. (Oddly enough if you're a foreign national and your data is kept offshore Microsoft is actually pretty bullish on protecting your rights). Could they (the U.S. government) do the same for Google? Yes. Do they do this for your cell-phone carrier? Definitely. Do you gain a lot of convenience by having your data sent to Microsoft for a customised experience? Sure. Do you think it's worth it? Can't answer that for you. But if you don't there're a lot of articles online detailing how to bump-up your privacy in Windows 10.
Whatever your issues are with Windows 10 I can't be clearer on this: It's not because it's free. You weren't going to give Microsoft that money anyways.
None of these issues, NONE, is because Windows 10 is free. Windows 10 isn't finished out of the gate because Microsoft is "losing" money with and so had to scale back on their engineers. Windows 10 doesn't send data to Microsoft because Microsoft is losing money and needs to make it up by monetising their users.
Let's do a little math. Historically (at least since Vista) a smaller and smaller fraction of people upgrade the operating system on their PCs. They simply use the OS that comes with it and then get a new OS when they buy a new PC. Let's assume that about 2 million people worldwide upgrade their PCs when a new one is released. I believe this is a serious over-estimate, but you're welcome to disagree. Now we'll assume that a good chunk of these people are upgrading to Pro, because Pro users are more likely to follow tech news and want all the bells and whistles like Active Directory, Domain support, Bitlocker, etc. We'll round up and say all of the 2 million bought Pro. This means that 2 million people would have spent $130 each, giving us $260 million.
In Q3 2015 Microsoft generated $21.73 billion dollars with a profit of $6.6 billion. In Q4 2015 Microsoft generated $22.2 billion dollars in revenue, but lost $3.2 billion due to the Nokia write-down. These numbers are for 3 month-quarters. Microsoft generates 85 times more money in 3 months than they would get from one-time Windows upgrades across 4 years! (average time between Windows releases). Removing poor investment decisions, Microsoft makes in profit 25 times(!) the money they would make from these one-time Windows upgrades.
People upgrading their PCs have never been a source of money for Microsoft. They make their money from volume licensing to OEMs and Enterprises and from support. With Windows 10, arguably Microsoft's last hail-mary in the mobile world, they needed as many people as possible on the OS to cut support costs and to move forward with their 1-OS vision. And judging from the numbers (67 million this week) they're succeeding. Apple does the same thing. The more people use your new OS, the more likely developers are to support your new APIs and you suddenly have more money to spend on new features instead of maintaining legacy due to stubborn consumers.
Windows 10 is free because Microsoft wants all of us on it as soon as possible. Windows 10 is unfinished/buggy because Microsoft wants all of us on it as soon as possible. The sooner they released Windows 10 the sooner that was going to happen. Microsoft is not losing any appreciable amount of money by making it free, at least not the kind they can make up for by customising ads to your use habits. They are simply jumping on the connected device bandwagon.
Could they abuse their power and spy on you? Possibly. Could the US government ask extra-judiciously for data on you and have Microsoft give it to them? Yes. (Oddly enough if you're a foreign national and your data is kept offshore Microsoft is actually pretty bullish on protecting your rights). Could they (the U.S. government) do the same for Google? Yes. Do they do this for your cell-phone carrier? Definitely. Do you gain a lot of convenience by having your data sent to Microsoft for a customised experience? Sure. Do you think it's worth it? Can't answer that for you. But if you don't there're a lot of articles online detailing how to bump-up your privacy in Windows 10.
Whatever your issues are with Windows 10 I can't be clearer on this: It's not because it's free. You weren't going to give Microsoft that money anyways.
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