My Opinion.... be sure you have coffee....
Two articles of interest:
ICS reaches 2.9%.
Android Hardware Fragmentation
OS Stagnation
Only 2.9% of Android users are using the most up to date version.
2.3.3 was released on 9 February 2011. Just to give you some perspective, HP introduced the TouchPad at a conference the
same exact day. It has since been released, crashed, cancelled, been shuffled around, and been open sourced. All the while, the bulk of Android users have been using the
same exact version.
Another way to look at this is to compare it to iOS. A month after Android 2.3.3 came out, iOS 4.3 came out along with some device called the iPad2. iOS 4.X devices make up
only 18% of all iOS devices and that is because the iPhone 3G and iPod Touch (2nd generation) were EOL.
Mango also came to life around the time of 2.3.3. It too has seen a minor fix since then and is scheduled for a major overhaul by the EOTY.
Device Fragmentation
Speaking to The Next Web, Smith outlines the top six Android devices running his Audiobooks and Audiobooks Free apps based on 1.3 million downloads:
• Droid X (7.8 percent of users)
• Samsung Galaxy S2 (4.3 percent)
• Droid (4 percent)
• HTC Desire HD (4 percent)
• HTC Evo 4G (3.7 percent)
• Droid incredible (2.3 percent)
Remember, these are the top six devices out of a total of 1,443. Factor in the Android version that these devices are running, Smith says that half of the users are running Android 2.3.3 and then the rest are on versions ranging from 1.6 to 4.0.3. No developer can be expected to support hundreds of devices running a variety of aging platforms.
By comparison, with 8 to 10 different iOS devices, Smith says he can cover 100 percent of iOS users. To do the same with Android he would need thousands of test devices, and then test the software across all devices and platforms - an impossible task.
Thus the downside of open source rears its ugly head. Google cannot force companies to upgrade. Therefore Samsung and company have no incentive to upgrade their older devices to newer versions of Android. Why spend money trying to get old hardware to work with newer versions of Android when that labor can be better spent on new products?
Apple can get around that because they control both hardware and software. But beyond driver support, Samsung has no control over Android. HTC goes so far as to write their own UI. And Amazon only uses the core of Android and uses its own shell.
Microsoft is approaching the mobile market like they did the desktop market. Look at your desktop unit or laptop, odds are you will see a "Designed for Windows XX" sticker on it. The Lumia 900 metaphorically has a "Designed for Windows Phone" sticker. Microsoft set the standard for the platform and it is up to the manufacturer to support it.
And like the desktop market, Windows Phones devices support newer versions of the OS. I had an HP dv6000 that came with WXP on it. When I finally upgraded to a new system a year ago, that same dv6000 had Windows 7 Pro installed on it and was working great (beyond the dying five year old battery). Best as we can tell, most Windows Phone devices are running the most recent version. The Lumia 900 will be the exception initially, but I recall that will change shortly after launch.
Android, as a platform, is a big seller. Android, as an experience, isn't there. When you buy an iOS device, you are almost promised two whole versions of iOS before your device gets dropped. Even the original iPad runs iOS 5.1. With Windows Phone, your device is likewise promised two whole versions. Maybe even more considering Microsoft just supported RAM-Lite phones with 7.5.
With Android, what you see is likely all you will ever see. While you can grab an iPhone with a minor OS flaw knowing Apple will have it fixed in a month, you better like the Android device. That's all she wrote.
Both of these spell trouble for Android and Microsoft would be wise to exploit them in advertising campaigns. Android is the most popular OS like gas is the most popular fuel. It's more of a matter of having no other choice rather than selecting what you want. Microsoft needs to push itself as the anti-Android. It needs to tell devs "You only have to develop for us once. We may only have 25 different devices, but they all run the same WP. One program runs on them all (minus the third-world phone)."
Another way to look at it: Windows Phone is like a small patch of the softest, greenest grass you can find while Android is a field of weeds. While weeds will always grow the fastest, only the grass is desired. Microsoft needs to press their advance on the weakness of Android as a platform.
I still have confidence that when all is said and done that the two big players will resemble the desktop OS market: Apple and Microsoft with the "nerd" population using Linu... err, Android. But consumers will pick WP.
Windows 8 may be the best thing to ever happen to Windows Phone. Put yourself in the mind of a consumer. Which would you rather buy: the phone that looks like your computer at home, or that phone that looks like whatever the manufacturer put on it? The bulk of phone sales are not made by nerds but by the Great Unwashed. They are simply looking for a simple, easy to use phone.
In the end, does Windows Phone have email, facebook, twitter, a phone, a camera, and Angry Birds? If the answer to all of those is yes, they are a complete OS in the minds of the average Joe. Regardless of the number of apps.
/sermon
986 words. Wow....
Edit: Android 2.2 Froyo actually
has a larger share of Android than all of 3.x and 4.x versions
combined.