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fjtorres5591: Very good analysis ! Do you think the next Xbox console will be able to integrate the Steam library or other PC stores? That would be really awesome! If Yes, how Xbox would make money from games bought on other stores through its console! A commission ?
If the next xbox is Windows compatible it would have to be (almost) as open as a PC. So Steam, etc, would run on it in some form. Either standalone or as a partitioned section of the XBOX store. Either way it would line up with Spencer's line about wanting Steam and other stores onboard.
The way it would work would most likely be that that Steam pays "rent" in the form of a percentage of total xbox revenue instead of per transaction. Alternately, they could use the Xbox payment system the way apple forces all iPhone apps. (A bit hypocritical if they did since they protest it on iOS. But if it's a voluntary option...)
It all hinges on what the nextbox actually is.
Brad Sams suggested it might be a line of PCs farmed out to Dell, Acer, Lenovo, or somebody else (with a custom security module for anticheat and DRM) much like the old signature PCs or the surface line. At that point console xbox software would be PC software with a default configuration for the specific models/markets they choose to address. One would expect three SKUs: entry level, mainstream, and hobbyist at say, $300/600/900. At least the first two would be diskless. All would be slightly subsidized. All would have the same NPU but the CPU would vary. Resolution and max frame rate would be model determined.
Not hard to figure out, really, once you assume PC compatibility. The iffy part is the entry level; I can't see MS giving up on the low end even if the Series S FUD from lazy developers and fanboys has the series S underperforming so far. The tech might force it, though. One (touchy) solution for the entry level might be to make it a hybrid: back-compat and AA/indie games run local but big AAA games run with cloud assist. A compromise to meet Spencer's goals of growing the ecosystem (no $1000 box) while delivering "biggest leap in performance ever". Interestingly, such a design would have minimal local storage but lots of DRAM, keeping costs contained.
Unless things change, that would be the last generation of consoles to even barely fit the old hardware driven model. There will still be gaming boxes sold but they will be almost certainly be online always and mostly streamers with local back compatibility. Think of the OneX today.
The alternative is to give up on local execution of the pixel-pimping "photorealistic" games or local execution at all. The tech simply won't allow ever increasing local power at practical price points. Witness the PS5 Pro. You either follow Nintendo in selling only hardware that profitably fits the price point or go online-assisted or full online. Or both: Series S forever.
Every tech plateaus sooner or later.