Is "One Billion Windows 10 Devices" enough?

[DancingDave]

Hi

In the keynote Terry Myerson said that Microsoft has a big goal with Windows 10:

"Our goal is within two to three years of Windows 10?s release there will be one billion devices running Windows 10."

While it first sounds like a lot I'm now asking myself what it actually means and if it's enough for Microsoft.

Here's why:

One billion devices in three years equals to around 330 million devices per year. That number is for all Windows 10 devices, so PCs, tablets, smartphones, xbox one, etc. included.

In Q1/2015 alone there were around 345 million smartphones sold (numbers by Strategy Analysts). If you don't consider WP, Blackberry or Symbian, it's about 330 million iOS and Android smartphones. In one quarter.

(Apple and Samsung sold together about 150 million smartphones, just to get it into perspective)

So basically there are more iOS and Android smartphones being sold in less than a years time than Microsoft wants to sell Windows 10 devices in three years (or two years if you're optimistic).

If you not only include smartphones but also tablets, Macs and Chrombooks, etc. the Apple/Google numbers are even higher.

Of course maybe heaps of people will start buying Windows 10 smartphones and Microsoft might reach 30% smartphone marketshare in a short time. But even in this unlikely scenario Windows 10 will be outsold by Android and iOS 2:1.

So is "1 billion devices in three years" a big goal? I don't think so. The goal basically means that Microsoft thinks that they will be in the third spot for a very long time. Even with Windows 10.

Am I totally wrong?

 

[gpobernardo]

Perhaps the comparison and analysis would be more accurate if Windows Phones (or Microsoft) would be compared with iOS (or Apple) and Android (or the variety of manufacturers who make Android devices) individually rather than "WP vs iOS and Android", right?:smile:

 

[moorken]

i also think they are not only aiming for smartphones. Think larger, in the next decade there might even be washing machines running on W10 (there are already washing machines running android.....)