WP Endgame?

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Depatter

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Did anyone else listen to Windows Weekly #259? Paul Thurrott said that some sources in Microsoft were hinting at the fact that if the Windows Phone market share does not increase significantly this year, that Microsoft would be willing to fold it up and move on. He said it was something he had never heard out of them, and that previously they said they were in it to win it. He seemed really bummed by it. Given their history with the Zune and Kin....what do you think? It kind of bummed me out, especially since I find Paul Thurrott to be an extremely reliable source.

Windows Weekly 259 | TWiT.TV *Fast forward to around the 45:00 mark
 

KingCrimson

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Did anyone else listen to Windows Weekly #259? Paul Thurrott said that some sources in Microsoft were hinting at the fact that if the Windows Phone market share does not increase significantly this year, that Microsoft would be willing to fold it up and move on. He said it was something he had never heard out of them, and that previously they said they were in it to win it. He seemed really bummed by it. Given their history with the Zune and Kin....what do you think? It kind of bummed me out, especially since I find Paul Thurrott to be an extremely reliable source.

Windows Weekly 259 | TWiT.TV *Fast forward to around the 45:00 mark

Honestly I'm beginning to not stand Paul Thurrott. He's all doom & gloom and not very intelligent. Zune failed because it was a music-only platform in an age where you had to be a full phone+cloud platform which is what Windows Phone is. Zune was not worth fighting for, WP is. I sure as **** am glad that the Windows Phone division is not infected with defeatists like Thurrott. Maybe he should just get himself an iPhone already.

Honestly I'm really enjoying the platform. In less then 2 weeks I've already installed about 20 apps. I'm really enjoying "Angry Birds" and "Grow". I never thought it possible, but suddenly I want to have XBox achievements! I love the Amazing Weather app, the Me/People hubs, Local Scout and the general look of the UI. I love the lockscreen and how it PWNS iOS lockscreen. So let's have 3-cheers for a innovative platform and not listen anymore to the doom & gloom crowd.
 

tekhna

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Did anyone else listen to Windows Weekly #259? Paul Thurrott said that some sources in Microsoft were hinting at the fact that if the Windows Phone market share does not increase significantly this year, that Microsoft would be willing to fold it up and move on. He said it was something he had never heard out of them, and that previously they said they were in it to win it. He seemed really bummed by it. Given their history with the Zune and Kin....what do you think? It kind of bummed me out, especially since I find Paul Thurrott to be an extremely reliable source.

Windows Weekly 259 | TWiT.TV *Fast forward to around the 45:00 mark

Of course they are, there's only so long you can hemorrhage money from a project or product and not catch **** from your investors. The fact is that Microsoft is making money hand over fist from Android royalties and may not even need WP long-term.
But I think it is an interesting question--what is Microsoft's goal for WP7? And does it make them any money?
 

rbrunner

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Ah yes, those rumors

Microsoft folding it up (with WP7) and move on? Yeah, but move on where? Where do you move today if not into mobile space!?

And it may well be true that "certain sources" within Microsoft are perfectly willing to do exactly this (drop WP7 this year still), but at the same time other "sources" not at all.

Don't forget that Microsoft is a huge company, and like in any company above a certain size there are different departments with different interests and various factions not all pulling into exactly the same direction.
 

tekhna

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Honestly I'm beginning to not stand Paul Thurrott. He's all doom & gloom and not very intelligent. Zune failed because it was a music-only platform in an age where you had to be a full phone+cloud platform which is what Windows Phone is. Zune was not worth fighting for, WP is. I sure as **** am glad that the Windows Phone division is not infected with defeatists like Thurrott. Maybe he should just get himself an iPhone already.

Honestly I'm really enjoying the platform. In less then 2 weeks I've already installed about 20 apps. I'm really enjoying "Angry Birds" and "Grow". I never thought it possible, but suddenly I want to have XBox achievements! I love the Amazing Weather app, the Me/People hubs, Local Scout and the general look of the UI. I love the lockscreen and how it PWNS iOS lockscreen. So let's have 3-cheers for a innovative platform and not listen anymore to the doom & gloom crowd.


What's the saying? Don't shoot the messenger? Something like that? Sorry the guy gave you bad news, but it's not his fault..
 

Depatter

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Honestly I'm beginning to not stand Paul Thurrott. He's all doom & gloom and not very intelligent. Zune failed because it was a music-only platform in an age where you had to be a full phone+cloud platform which is what Windows Phone is. Zune was not worth fighting for, WP is. I sure as **** am glad that the Windows Phone division is not infected with defeatists like Thurrott. Maybe he should just get himself an iPhone already.

Honestly I'm really enjoying the platform. In less then 2 weeks I've already installed about 20 apps. I'm really enjoying "Angry Birds" and "Grow". I never thought it possible, but suddenly I want to have XBox achievements! I love the Amazing Weather app, the Me/People hubs, Local Scout and the general look of the UI. I love the lockscreen and how it PWNS iOS lockscreen. So let's have 3-cheers for a innovative platform and not listen anymore to the doom & gloom crowd.
Respectfully (and not that I am a huge Thurrott fan), I might have to disagree on the "not intelligent" comment. I'm not sure what a person has to do to rate, but...

Here's a list of the books he has published

Windows NT 5.0 Networking.
"Delphi 3 Superbible". March 1997. ISBN 1571690271.
"Unlocking Active Server Pages". June 1997. ISBN 1562057529.
"Implementing Microsoft Visual InterDev". September 1997. ISBN 1566047447.
"VBScript for the World Wide Web (Visual QuickStart Guide)". October 1997. ISBN 0201688921.
"Cascading Style Sheets: A Primer". November 1997. ISBN 1558285792.
"SELECT: Projects for Visual Basic 6.0". March 1999. ISBN 0201611937.
"Visual InterDev 6 Unleashed". April 1999. ISBN 067231262X.
Great Digital Media with Windows XP. September 2001. ISBN 0764536206.
Windows XP Home Networking. November 2004 (2nd edition). ISBN 0764578162.
Microsoft Windows XP Power Toolkit (with Walter Bruce and David Chernicoff). August 2002. ISBN 8120322738.
Windows Vista Secrets (with Brian Livingston). 2007. ISBN 0764577042.
Windows Vista Secrets SP1 Edition. October 2008. ISBN 0470242000.
Windows 7 Secrets (with Rafael Rivera). September 2009. ISBN 0470508418.
Windows Phone 7 Secrets. November 2010. ISBN 0470886595.
Upcoming Windows 8 Secrets

I would also mention that he actually knows people on that Windows Phone team and is certainly more well connected to the behind the scenes pulse than most. He called the Zune and Kin demise well in advance...as well as changes to Office, Hotmail, Live, and Skydrive etc..etc..

Just saying =p
 

tekhna

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Microsoft folding it up (with WP7) and move on? Yeah, but move on where? Where do you move today if not into mobile space!?

And it may well be true that "certain sources" within Microsoft are perfectly willing to do exactly this (drop WP7 this year still), but at the same time other "sources" not at all.

Don't forget that Microsoft is a huge company, and like in any company above a certain size there are different departments with different interests and various factions not all pulling into exactly the same direction.

Right, but that's the question--what is WP7 actually accomplishing for Microsoft right now other than getting to say they have a mobile OS? In terms of revenue it's probably a money-losing venture. In terms of mindshare it's piddling, marketshare worse.
What's the difference for the smartphone market between WP existing or not existing? A couple percent around the margins.
 

KingCrimson

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Right, but that's the question--what is WP7 actually accomplishing for Microsoft right now other than getting to say they have a mobile OS? In terms of revenue it's probably a money-losing venture. In terms of mindshare it's piddling, marketshare worse.
What's the difference for the smartphone market between WP existing or not existing? A couple percent around the margins.

The fact is Windows Phone doesn't start to be compelling for the masses until Apollo. That's when we get multi-core processor, NFC, high-definition displays, much better cameras and all the missing OS features + another 80K apps. So I'd wait at least 1 year AFTER Apollo is released and if WP market share is still on 1%, then I'd call it a failure. Not until then.
 

KingCrimson

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Microsoft folding it up (with WP7) and move on? Yeah, but move on where? Where do you move today if not into mobile space!?

And it may well be true that "certain sources" within Microsoft are perfectly willing to do exactly this (drop WP7 this year still), but at the same time other "sources" not at all.

Don't forget that Microsoft is a huge company, and like in any company above a certain size there are different departments with different interests and various factions not all pulling into exactly the same direction.

If Microsoft quits WP in 2012, then they might as well just close down all business units that have to do with consumer products and just focus 100% on business.
 

anon(5335877)

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If Microsoft quits WP in 2012, then they might as well just close down all business units that have to do with consumer products and just focus 100% on business.

Basically this. Mobile computing is the future (I think), or at least for consumers it is.

Windows Phone is part of Microsoft's future strategy. Let's say Windows Phone doesn't catch on? Worst case scenario, ten years from now tablets and phones have evolved and are powerful enough that most consumers don't bother with desktops or laptops. Android tablets and iPad cut into consumer PC sales, and now Microsoft is screwed.

And what about Xbox? Lots of people play games on their mobile devices. What if in the future a majority of the gaming happens on these devices, and only hardcore gamers buy a console? Don't you think Microsoft would want to be a part of mobile gaming if that's where the money's at? Furthermore, don't you think Microsoft would want to be prepared for a transition from console gaming to mobile gaming if that happens?

This is why Windows Phone 8 (and Windows 8) is really important.
 

Depatter

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I found the idea Thurrott put forward about Microsoft focusing on providing multi-platform services and applications to be an interesting one since Microsoft has recently started gearing its services to be multi-platform in nature. Skydrive now supports iphone/ipad...Onenote supports iphone/ipad....Office 365 is multiplatform....the new zune replacement is multi-platform. They bought into Nook which gives them access to multi-platform books. Maybe they are putting the focus back on Windows 8 and the Cloud Services and making interfacing with those from mobile devices platform agnostic.
 

KingCrimson

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I found the idea Thurrott put forward about Microsoft focusing on providing multi-platform services and applications to be an interesting one since Microsoft has recently started gearing its services to be multi-platform in nature. Skydrive now supports iphone/ipad...Onenote supports iphone/ipad....Office 365 is multiplatform....the new zune replacement is multi-platform. They bought into Nook which gives them access to multi-platform books. Maybe they are putting the focus back on Windows 8 and the Cloud Services and making interfacing with those from mobile devices platform agnostic.

Let's face it, WIMP has been around for 30 years in the consumer-wide consciousness. Suddenly Microsoft introduces Live Tiles + panoramic apps and it's a bridge too far for 90% of consumers. I know people who would be perfectly content to use the existing iOS interface the rest of their lives. They literally have 0 interest in learning anything new. So the key thing is for Microsoft to do well with Windows RT tablets, get people used to the new UI paradigm that way and that hope that helps to really launch the phone segment in 2013-2014.
 

sentimentGX4

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Microsoft isn't just going to give up on WP7 out of the blue. As many have already brought up, the mobile OS market is a critical market for Microsoft that it cannot give up. No amount of Android royalties will make up for it.

If WP7 gets the shaft, I have complete confidence that Microsoft has a replacement OS lined up to take its place. Development of this OS will take a while so I'm sure WP will live to see another day; unless, Apollo is actually Windows Mobile 8 (unlikely).

I'd argue even if WP is a complete flop that it is more likely that MS will make the changes to WP to transition it into a more traditional smartphone OS. There's no point starting at 0 yet again.
 

KingCrimson

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Microsoft isn't just going to give up on WP7 out of the blue. As many have already brought up, the mobile OS market is a critical market for Microsoft that it cannot give up. No amount of Android royalties will make up for it.

If WP7 gets the shaft, I have complete confidence that Microsoft has a replacement OS lined up to take its place. Development of this OS will take a while so I'm sure WP will live to see another day; unless, Apollo is actually Windows Mobile 8 (unlikely).

I'd argue even if WP is a complete flop that it is more likely that MS will make the changes to WP to transition it into a more traditional smartphone OS. There's no point starting at 0 yet again.

Microsoft is going to change WP to rows of lifeless icons? Have it look like Android, what's the point? I think it's quite courageous of Microsoft to change the UI paradigm now and let that be THE differentiator. Let people see that there is a difference. Apple survived for years on a cult-like following, so can Windows Phone.
 

sentimentGX4

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Of course they are, there's only so long you can hemorrhage money from a project or product and not catch **** from your investors.
I disagree with this statement.

Critics like to point to products such as Kin and Zune as two products that Microsoft abandoned after hemorrhaging money. But do you know that there are actually Microsoft products that have been hemorrhaging money for years and years and never gotten the shaft?

If you guessed Microsofts entire online/cloud division, you are correct! Worthless, unpopular products from Bing to Skydrive to MSN have been draining money from Microsoft for years and years and have NEVER gotten the shaft.

(It's therefore extremely ironic that some of you suggest that MS is swapping from a OS strategy to a cloud/services strategy; because, I reiterate, this entire division has been hemorrhaging money for at least a decade. When it comes to the cloud, it's all Google.)

Microsoft's cloud services is an example of when the company is willing to foot a loss year after year if the product is considered strategic. Windows Phone could very well fall under the same category. Microsoft NEEDS a mobile OS.

So before you guys compare WP to Kin and Zune, you should also take some time to compare it to Skydrive/MSN/Windows Live/Bing. There is actually a chance that WP could drag on for a decade without gaining traction.
 

canesfan625

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Of course they are, there's only so long you can hemorrhage money from a project or product and not catch **** from your investors. The fact is that Microsoft is making money hand over fist from Android royalties and may not even need WP long-term.
But I think it is an interesting question--what is Microsoft's goal for WP7? And does it make them any money?

Forgetting that Paul Thurrott has been wrong about pretty much everything this statement is about as wrong as you can get.

What investors? Also if you think them loosing money after just two years means anything go take a look at this thing called the Xbox. Microsoft throws money at things at the beginning. They call Crawl-Walk-Run I think
 

Aeon2k

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Paul Thurrott said that some sources in Microsoft were hinting at the fact that if the Windows Phone market share does not increase significantly this year, that Microsoft would be willing to fold it up and move on.
Yeah, but move on where to? They largest expanding market in IT right now is the smartphone and tablet market. MSFT would be really foolish to just give up now that they've laid the groundwork with an innovative OS and are expanding their services and uniting them in Windows 8.
If this trend continues then desktops and laptops will eventually see a decline in numbers directly affecting Windows and Office sales.
 

AngryNil

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Oh dear, Windows Weekly.

Remember when Thurrott said Mango would be released in 2012? Or what was a more cringe-worthy moment for me - when it was announced that 256MB devices running Tango would not have background tasks, Mary Jo Foley decided to ask Microsoft whether Tango would remove background tasks from her 512MB device.

I love the show, but they seem extremely out of touch in mobile. This one makes no sense, just like how Mango in 2012 made no sense (they had shown it off at MWC in February 2011).
 
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