07-19-2012 02:32 PM
62 123
tools
  1. cckgz4's Avatar
    Is it that serious?
    07-15-2012 01:08 AM
  2. cgk's Avatar
    Update: Nielson responds

    "Nielsen has spoken up on how its figures have been used, saying it does not support multiplying its numbers with those of Comscore, as they measure subtly different elements of the market. They added that they therefore 'do not feel the 300,000 number is accurate.'"

    Nokia may have only sold 330k phones in the US [Update] - Neowin
    They say that because they are trying to protect the proprietary nature of their data and want people to buy them for more detailed reports rather than perform their own novel synthesis and fill in the gaps without paying them for it...

    The other thing to note is that they don't say "no it's wrong it's much higher", it could actually be *lower* that 330,000.
    Residing likes this.
    07-15-2012 08:03 AM
  3. Reflexx's Avatar
    They say that because they are trying to protect the proprietary nature of their data and want people to buy them for more detailed reports rather than perform their own novel synthesis and fill in the gaps without paying them for it...

    The other thing to note is that they don't say "no it's wrong it's much higher", it could actually be *lower* that 330,000.
    So it could be higher... or lower.

    In other words,... it's BS.
    vp710 likes this.
    07-15-2012 09:14 AM
  4. jimski's Avatar
    Does any of this really matter. Microsoft will continue pushing their mobile platform, no matter how long it takes. It's their only option to continue being relevant in the fast changing tech world.

    Regarding Comscore, Neilson, Gartner, etc., I take their info with a grain of salt. The say what they want to believe. No one has ever asked me a question. And reading their results will never sway me, regardless of product or service. I am intelligent enough to do my own research, which I always do before spending any money.

    Sent from my Lumia 900 using Board Express Pro
    07-15-2012 11:09 AM
  5. Probaholic1's Avatar
    Well I don't agree on the numbers, but I do agree that they are far and few in between. I live in the LA area. So I would also base it on what I see out in the streets. I'm out in public a lot, and so I think I might have seen 1 Lumia in the last 4 months.

    But I do agree that the really big issue here is the fact that it is only on 1 carrier. Which many people are not very fond off. I personally haven't picked one up. Although, I would have gladly pay retail for one specially since there down to 400 bux right now, if I could use it on Tmo or even just to have MMS working outside of ATT
    07-15-2012 11:17 AM
  6. socialcarpet's Avatar
    Wait... are you saying that it's common sense to use personal anecdotal evidence as proof?

    The high school I graduated from had 2500 students. One school in farming community in California. There were about 4 high schools in the city.

    But estimating 7000 handsets in a whole state is too high because you personally don't notice them every often? Really?
    07-15-2012 11:45 AM
  7. socialcarpet's Avatar
    Common sense.

    Just do an informal survey of the phone landscape in your local area. Go to the mall, zoo, movie theater, whatever. When you're out to dinner. It's easy to see who uses what phone. Count 'em up! If the Lumia 900, or any wp7 device for that matter, was selling well, you'd see them around. I bet most of us are like me: when I see any wp7 device in the public it's a big deal. "Wow I just saw a Focus S!"

    What is the ratio of iphones to wp7 devices in the wild? 100 to 1, 1000 to 1?

    They aren't selling, period.

    I go out to lunch every day during the work week. I go to the movies about twice a month, casino three times a week. Plus countless trips to the mall, grocery store, walmart, etc. I can go weeks without seeing another Lumia 900 in the wild. I wish I saw them all the time, but I don't.

    330,000 would mean 5,000 to 7,000 a state, depending on the population. That almost sounds too high to me...
    This is everything but common sense.

    I'm not a scientist, but even I know better than to assume anything from anecdotal evidence in such a flawed scenario with so many variables.

    I live in Florida and I have never seen a snowmobile. Therefore Polaris is selling absolutely NO snowmobiles.
    jaded skies and Bee Mon like this.
    07-15-2012 11:47 AM
  8. jmerrey's Avatar
    I'm sorry if my point was missed. In 4 months I've seen 2 other Lumia 900's outside of an AT&T store. In two years I've seen a handful of wp7 devices, certainly less than 10. I'm pretty sure this is the norm for most of us on this board. Here's a test: go to the mall tomorrow and start an informal count. When you get to 10 consumer owned wp7 devices you are allowed to leave. See you next week...or next month.

    My point is, if the device was really selling well, we would see them. We don't. At least, I don't. If you do, then I guess I must live in the wrong town ;) When I see numbers like 330,000, I don't get the surprised. Or maybe I get surprised that they are that high. Maybe there is a part of the country that is wp7 heaven.

    I'm hoping wp8/w8 changes everything, just like the rest of us do. I've used an iPhone, a few Android devices, and even one Blackberry, and I definitely don't want to go back to any of those. I don't want this to fail. The good news is Microsoft has a ton of money, and they really can't afford to not be successful in this market.

    edit: ...and regarding the snowmobiles in FLA analogy: Cellphones are sold and used everywhere in the US in mass quantities. I'm not talking about snow shoes in Miami. I'm talking about a product that most of us use. You say "flawed scenario with so many variables." What variables? I'm taking the visual evidence from restaurants, malls, casinos, movie theaters, museums, etc. in three different towns that I frequent over the course of a normal month. Not to mention the countless business offices I visit during the work week. Like I said early in this post, maybe I'm just living in the wrong state ;)
    Last edited by jmerrey; 07-15-2012 at 08:41 PM.
    07-15-2012 08:28 PM
  9. GMJeff's Avatar
    I'm sorry if my point was missed. In 4 months I've seen 2 other Lumia 900's outside of an AT&T store. In two years I've seen a handful of wp7 devices, certainly less than 10. I'm pretty sure this is the norm for most of us on this board. Here's a test: go to the mall tomorrow and start an informal count. When you get to 10 consumer owned wp7 devices you are allowed to leave. See you next week...or next month.

    My point is, if the device was really selling well, we would see them. We don't. At least, I don't. If you do, then I guess I must live in the wrong town ;) When I see numbers like 330,000, I don't get the surprised. Or maybe I get surprised that they are that high. Maybe there is a part of the country that is wp7 heaven.

    I'm hoping wp8/w8 changes everything, just like the rest of us do. I've used an iPhone, a few Android devices, and even one Blackberry, and I definitely don't want to go back to any of those. I don't want this to fail. The good news is Microsoft has a ton of money, and they really can't afford to not be successful in this market.

    edit: ...and regarding the snowmobiles in FLA analogy: Cellphones are sold and used everywhere in the US in mass quantities. I'm not talking about snow shoes in Miami. I'm talking about a product that most of us use. You say "flawed scenario with so many variables." What variables? I'm taking the visual evidence from restaurants, malls, casinos, movie theaters, museums, etc. in three different towns that I frequent over the course of a normal month. Not to mention the countless business offices I visit during the work week. Like I said early in this post, maybe I'm just living in the wrong state ;)
    The point of socialcarpet's comment was that just because you don't see a Lumia on any given day doesn't mean that someone in some other area doesn't see hundreds in a day.

    Based on their grand total of 110,000,000 people that bought cell phones, I would be a little worried of those numbers also. The press has been rather adament of Android activating 1 million devices a day, that equals out to be roughly 91 million handsets in a quarter. That leaves approximately 19 million iPhones, Blackberries and Windows Phones. I am sure some of those numbers are tablets as well.

    Do you see how some people can think these numbers are skewed.

    I mean, I could go to the mall as mentioned previously and ask the first 110 people what kind of cell phone they have in their pocket. The answers they give me could represent 1 million people per response. Would I have 110 million iPhones then, maybe 50/50 iPhone and Android, or what mix?

    One last thought, Nokia has not been a big seller in America since the 90's, so with the HTC One X, Samsung Galaxy SIII and other mega phones being sold, why would they sell a large amount of Nokia Windows Phones now. Look at their numbers outside of the US, that is where they will sell much better.
    07-16-2012 02:25 AM
  10. AngryNil's Avatar
    Based on their grand total of 110,000,000 people that bought cell phones, I would be a little worried of those numbers also. The press has been rather adament of Android activating 1 million devices a day, that equals out to be roughly 91 million handsets in a quarter. That leaves approximately 19 million iPhones, Blackberries and Windows Phones.
    No. 110 million smartphones is a US figure, while 1 million activations is global.
    07-16-2012 05:12 AM
  11. Kredrian's Avatar
    I don't care if they only sold 3 phones. I got my superphone and that's all I care about.

    Sent from my Lumia 900 using Board Express
    Bee Mon and vp710 like this.
    07-16-2012 06:39 AM
  12. Thuoudo's Avatar
    edit: ...and regarding the snowmobiles in FLA analogy: Cellphones are sold and used everywhere in the US in mass quantities. I'm not talking about snow shoes in Miami. I'm talking about a product that most of us use. You say "flawed scenario with so many variables." What variables? I'm taking the visual evidence from restaurants, malls, casinos, movie theaters, museums, etc. in three different towns that I frequent over the course of a normal month. Not to mention the countless business offices I visit during the work week. Like I said early in this post, maybe I'm just living in the wrong state ;)
    Maybe you don't know what anecdotal evidence is? Anecdotal evidence - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Because of the small sample, there is a larger chance that it may be true but unreliable due to cherry-picked or otherwise non-representative samples of typical cases.

    ...

    Misuse of anecdotal evidence is a logical fallacy and is sometimes informally referred to as the "person who" fallacy ("I know a person who..."; "I know of a case where..." etc. Compare with hasty generalization). Anecdotal evidence is not necessarily representative of a "typical" experience; statistical evidence can more accurately determine how typical something is.
    Around here, US Cellular is the dominant carrier. If we're staying with the "go to the mall and see" method of measure, I'd say 6 of 10 people have USCC. They have carried one Windows Phone.

    T-Mobile is pretty much non-existent in my city of 233,000. They carry a couple WPs. Heck, two of those 10 people who don't have US Cellular probably have Verizon or Sprint...both sitting at precisely one WP each.

    That leaves ATT (and I'm not counting prepaids here for the sake of discussion). One of ten people around here have ATT, most are with them just to have an iPhone.

    I own more WPs than I've seen in the wild...
    07-16-2012 11:43 AM
  13. btgusto's Avatar
    I am not worried about those numbers IF they are true. I just think, "Well, how many Nokias sold in America last year during that same quarter or entire year?" Nokia was already hurting when MS came to them. They are still trying to find their way back.
    I believe instead of being a hardware partner Nokia will eventually be absorbed by MS as their cell phone hardware division instead of "partner"
    07-16-2012 12:33 PM
  14. the_tyrant's Avatar
    I can imagine all the hipsters buying windows phones now, "The platform that doesn't sell out" can be the new slogan.
    07-16-2012 10:15 PM
  15. vp710's Avatar
    I can imagine all the hipsters buying windows phones now, "The platform that doesn't sell out" can be the new slogan.
    07-16-2012 10:24 PM
  16. Reflexx's Avatar
    The estimate is pretty ridiculous.

    We have a sample size of around 30k being used to get general numbers for an install base of 110 million.

    Those statistics weren't meant to accurately represent something being measured under 1%.

    They don't even mention what the margin of error is for both Nielson and comScore. And this 300k estimate is supposed to come from a mix of both?

    ComScore says there are approximately 110 million smartphone users. How accurate is that supposed to be? We know for dang sure it's not an exact number. Is it +|- 5 million? 10 million? They do a monthly rolling estimate. It's not even meant to be accurate. It's just supposed to give a general idea about the market size.

    Neilson gives estimated percentages of market share. What's the margin of error? If it's even 1%, that's higher than the whole Nokia estimate. So it could be off by +|- a million.

    Tech reporters should really stop thinking that they know how to be statisticians.
    alaskanjackson likes this.
    07-16-2012 11:20 PM
  17. jdelroyc's Avatar
    I can understand what the poster on the previous page was saying. I have owned my Trophy since launch and have followed the platform since its U.S. launch and have seen two in the wild in this period of time, a Focus and a Trophy, not including the 7 friends/co-workers who I've convinced to switch and the people at the Seattle Inner Circle event last year.

    Yes, anecdotal evidence isn't to be taken as the be-all-end-all but I think it speaks volumes when someone like me who is very aware of his surroundings only sees two of these phones in use on what I would call "regular" days in two years. I see plenty of iPhones and plenty of Androids. I don't know if 330k is an accurate number - it wouldn't surprise me - but I'm not sure I really care. As someone else stated, Microsoft cannot afford to lose this battle and will do what is necessary to make it work. There's no reason to get worked up or upset at people out there analyzing the numbers, they're just doing their jobs.
    07-17-2012 05:27 PM
  18. waazzupppp's Avatar
    If you figure the average cost of the device is around the $150 mark and that the device sold for $100, the carrier subsidy makes up another $150-200, that would mean that Nokia made over $3 million on the Lumia's sold in the US. Considering Symbian had an almost zero marketshare before the Lumia launch... Nokia is doing OK with Windows Phone in the US.

    The bigger problem is, how many of these new Lumia buyers are going to be torqued so bad at the WP8 update not being made available to them that they won't come back?

    Also, are they addressing the two Lumia's available from carriers - the 900 and 710 - or are they accounting for the imported 800's and the few unlocked 800's that the MS retail stores have sold as well?

    Seems like an awful lot of 900's have moved to kids lately - I think it's the colors.
    07-17-2012 05:50 PM
  19. ninjaap's Avatar
    I remember the Motorola Backflip debuted with 500K shipped to the ATT and that phone wasn't even considered high end or sell that well. I have a hard time believing 300K is all they sold/shipped for a flagship phone.
    07-17-2012 05:54 PM
  20. based_graham's Avatar
    If you figure the average cost of the device is around the $150 mark and that the device sold for $100, the carrier subsidy makes up another $150-200, that would mean that Nokia made over $3 million on the Lumia's sold in the US. Considering Symbian had an almost zero marketshare before the Lumia launch... Nokia is doing OK with Windows Phone in the US.

    The bigger problem is, how many of these new Lumia buyers are going to be torqued so bad at the WP8 update not being made available to them that they won't come back?

    Also, are they addressing the two Lumia's available from carriers - the 900 and 710 - or are they accounting for the imported 800's and the few unlocked 800's that the MS retail stores have sold as well?

    Seems like an awful lot of 900's have moved to kids lately - I think it's the colors.
    Nokia has said it that they will continue support for the L900 there is tons of life left.

    For us Lumia 900 owners that want a WP8 there "might" be early hardware upgrade plans to get us on the new platform.

    Microsoft and Nokia need us to test these platforms, see what's good and bad and for us to build a solid fan base around it. WP wont be here without the fans supporting it they know that and I am sure they want to get Windows Phone 8 handsets to us ASAP.
    07-17-2012 10:38 PM
  21. cgk's Avatar
    So according to their results released today, across all smart-phones, Nokia *shipped* 600,000 units... so that 300,000 sales figure sounds about right...
    07-19-2012 05:16 AM
  22. mprice86's Avatar
    So according to their results released today, across all smart-phones, Nokia *shipped* 600,000 units... so that 300,000 sales figure sounds about right...
    Todays figures are for the quarter, so it was 200,000k per month in the US.

    Apparently sales on the Lumia line doubled between Q1 and Q2, but given that they launched 2 new devices and expanded in to a bunch of new markets that's not too surprising.

    Engadget
    Nokia (PDF)
    07-19-2012 05:31 AM
  23. Reflexx's Avatar
    So according to their results released today, across all smart-phones, Nokia *shipped* 600,000 units... so that 300,000 sales figure sounds about right...
    As mentioned above. That's only 2nd quarter in the US.

    And the term is "sold". Not "shipped". Retailers buy these phones. They don't just hold them in stock.

    And where do you estimate that only half were resold to consumers? Retailers like AT&T only order more stock when needed. Do you really think they have half of all inventory for 3 months just sitting around? And then they introduce a NEW magenta model? Because they just want to order more stock to sit around? Really?
    Last edited by Winning Guy; 07-19-2012 at 05:45 AM.
    07-19-2012 05:35 AM
  24. cgk's Avatar
    That figure is for all lumias across North America (and other odds and ends) not simply the 900 - even if we accept that every single device is a lumia 900 that was sold to consumers then it is still a failure.
    07-19-2012 06:01 AM
  25. Reflexx's Avatar
    That figure is for all lumias (and other odds and ends) not simply the 900 - even if we accept that every single device is a lumia 900 that was sold to consumers then it is still a failure.
    How do you define "failure"? You want to declare failure as the game is barely starting. If that is how success or failure is defined, then we'd never have anyone ever achieve anything great.

    If this were an NBA season, we'd still be in the pre-season where the players are getting to know the competition and each other. There's still a long season left to go.

    Nokia stated long ago (even before launching the Lumia series in the US) that the game really starts with WP8.

    The purpose of the Lumia series is to establish mind share and branding. Considering their customer satisfaction ratings, they're doing great at that. So they're on the right track.

    Nokia is barely being reintroduced into the American market. And so far, they're coming back in with steady growth and a good reputation for quality, style, and service.
    07-19-2012 06:11 AM
62 123
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD