Nokia only selling 330,000 Lumias in US?

[Reflexx]

Common sense.

Just do an informal survey of the phone landscape in your local area. Go to the mall, zoo, movie theater, whatever. When you're out to dinner. It's easy to see who uses what phone. Count 'em up! If the Lumia 900, or any wp7 device for that matter, was selling well, you'd see them around. I bet most of us are like me: when I see any wp7 device in the public it's a big deal. "Wow I just saw a Focus S!"

What is the ratio of iphones to wp7 devices in the wild? 100 to 1, 1000 to 1?

They aren't selling, period.

I go out to lunch every day during the work week. I go to the movies about twice a month, casino three times a week. Plus countless trips to the mall, grocery store, walmart, etc. I can go weeks without seeing another Lumia 900 in the wild. I wish I saw them all the time, but I don't.

330,000 would mean 5,000 to 7,000 a state, depending on the population. That almost sounds too high to me...

Wait... are you saying that it's common sense to use personal anecdotal evidence as proof?

The high school I graduated from had 2500 students. One school in farming community in California. There were about 4 high schools in the city.

But estimating 7000 handsets in a whole state is too high because you personally don't notice them every often? Really?

 

[jmerrey]

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. If I don't see all 330,000 in person, there's no way they sold that many...

 

[Residing]

Common sense.

Just do an informal survey of the phone landscape in your local area. Go to the mall, zoo, movie theater, whatever. When you're out to dinner. It's easy to see who uses what phone. Count 'em up! If the Lumia 900, or any wp7 device for that matter, was selling well, you'd see them around. I bet most of us are like me: when I see any wp7 device in the public it's a big deal. "Wow I just saw a Focus S!"

What is the ratio of iphones to wp7 devices in the wild? 100 to 1, 1000 to 1?

They aren't selling, period.

I go out to lunch every day during the work week. I go to the movies about twice a month, casino three times a week. Plus countless trips to the mall, grocery store, walmart, etc. I can go weeks without seeing another Lumia 900 in the wild. I wish I saw them all the time, but I don't.

330,000 would mean 5,000 to 7,000 a state, depending on the population. That almost sounds too high to me...

I think that the Lumia 900 is selling, to the degree that it can - in this market. The bottom line is that this is one device, on only one carrier in the U.S. 300K devices seems plausible to me, although it would great if the number of devices sold were significantly more than this.

It is good to be hopeful that the Lumia 900 sold over 300K devices, but there are simply too many choices (Android devices) that drown out the Lumia 900 and other WP devices on ATT. Also, how many people had upgrades in Q2 (rhetorical)? And how many of those people actually chose to upgrade - to any device (WP, Android, etc.)? Not to mention, how many people are volunteering to go from a feature phone/pay go plan, to more than doubling their monthly bill by going to a smartphone, especially in this economy?

And then you have that carrier factor - people not willing to move from Verizon, T-Mobile, or Sprint just to get a Lumia 900.

Until Nokia Lumia's are on all carriers, and until new WP devices are available on all carriers, no one who is realistic should expect Nokia, or Microsoft, to sell or have significant marketshare.

 

[HeyCori]

Update: Nielson responds

"Nielsen has spoken up on how its figures have been used, saying it does not support multiplying its numbers with those of Comscore, as they measure subtly different elements of the market. They added that they therefore 'do not feel the 300,000 number is accurate.'"

Nokia may have only sold 330k phones in the US [Update] - Neowin

 

[12Danny123]

Update: Nielson responds

"Nielsen has spoken up on how its figures have been used, saying it does not support multiplying its numbers with those of Comscore, as they measure subtly different elements of the market. They added that they therefore 'do not feel the 300,000 number is accurate.'"

Nokia may have only sold 330k phones in the US [Update] - Neowin

YES! hope!

 

[cckgz4]

Is it that serious?

 

[cgk]

Update: Nielson responds

"Nielsen has spoken up on how its figures have been used, saying it does not support multiplying its numbers with those of Comscore, as they measure subtly different elements of the market. They added that they therefore 'do not feel the 300,000 number is accurate.'"

Nokia may have only sold 330k phones in the US [Update] - Neowin

They say that because they are trying to protect the proprietary nature of their data and want people to buy them for more detailed reports rather than perform their own novel synthesis and fill in the gaps without paying them for it...

The other thing to note is that they don't say "no it's wrong it's much higher", it could actually be *lower* that 330,000.

 

[Reflexx]

They say that because they are trying to protect the proprietary nature of their data and want people to buy them for more detailed reports rather than perform their own novel synthesis and fill in the gaps without paying them for it...

The other thing to note is that they don't say "no it's wrong it's much higher", it could actually be *lower* that 330,000.

So it could be higher... or lower.

In other words,... it's BS.

 

[jimski]

Does any of this really matter. Microsoft will continue pushing their mobile platform, no matter how long it takes. It's their only option to continue being relevant in the fast changing tech world.

Regarding Comscore, Neilson, Gartner, etc., I take their info with a grain of salt. The say what they want to believe. No one has ever asked me a question. And reading their results will never sway me, regardless of product or service. I am intelligent enough to do my own research, which I always do before spending any money.

Sent from my Lumia 900 using Board Express Pro

 

[Probaholic1]

Well I don't agree on the numbers, but I do agree that they are far and few in between. I live in the LA area. So I would also base it on what I see out in the streets. I'm out in public a lot, and so I think I might have seen 1 Lumia in the last 4 months.

But I do agree that the really big issue here is the fact that it is only on 1 carrier. Which many people are not very fond off. I personally haven't picked one up. Although, I would have gladly pay retail for one specially since there down to 400 bux right now, if I could use it on Tmo or even just to have MMS working outside of ATT

 

[socialcarpet]

Wait... are you saying that it's common sense to use personal anecdotal evidence as proof?

The high school I graduated from had 2500 students. One school in farming community in California. There were about 4 high schools in the city.

But estimating 7000 handsets in a whole state is too high because you personally don't notice them every often? Really?

 

[socialcarpet]

Common sense.

Just do an informal survey of the phone landscape in your local area. Go to the mall, zoo, movie theater, whatever. When you're out to dinner. It's easy to see who uses what phone. Count 'em up! If the Lumia 900, or any wp7 device for that matter, was selling well, you'd see them around. I bet most of us are like me: when I see any wp7 device in the public it's a big deal. "Wow I just saw a Focus S!"

What is the ratio of iphones to wp7 devices in the wild? 100 to 1, 1000 to 1?

They aren't selling, period.

I go out to lunch every day during the work week. I go to the movies about twice a month, casino three times a week. Plus countless trips to the mall, grocery store, walmart, etc. I can go weeks without seeing another Lumia 900 in the wild. I wish I saw them all the time, but I don't.

330,000 would mean 5,000 to 7,000 a state, depending on the population. That almost sounds too high to me...

This is everything but common sense.

I'm not a scientist, but even I know better than to assume anything from anecdotal evidence in such a flawed scenario with so many variables.

I live in Florida and I have never seen a snowmobile. Therefore Polaris is selling absolutely NO snowmobiles.

 

[jmerrey]

I'm sorry if my point was missed. In 4 months I've seen 2 other Lumia 900's outside of an AT&T store. In two years I've seen a handful of wp7 devices, certainly less than 10. I'm pretty sure this is the norm for most of us on this board. Here's a test: go to the mall tomorrow and start an informal count. When you get to 10 consumer owned wp7 devices you are allowed to leave. See you next week...or next month.

My point is, if the device was really selling well, we would see them. We don't. At least, I don't. If you do, then I guess I must live in the wrong town When I see numbers like 330,000, I don't get the surprised. Or maybe I get surprised that they are that high. Maybe there is a part of the country that is wp7 heaven.

I'm hoping wp8/w8 changes everything, just like the rest of us do. I've used an iPhone, a few Android devices, and even one Blackberry, and I definitely don't want to go back to any of those. I don't want this to fail. The good news is Microsoft has a ton of money, and they really can't afford to not be successful in this market.

edit: ...and regarding the snowmobiles in FLA analogy: Cellphones are sold and used everywhere in the US in mass quantities. I'm not talking about snow shoes in Miami. I'm talking about a product that most of us use. You say "flawed scenario with so many variables." What variables? I'm taking the visual evidence from restaurants, malls, casinos, movie theaters, museums, etc. in three different towns that I frequent over the course of a normal month. Not to mention the countless business offices I visit during the work week. Like I said early in this post, maybe I'm just living in the wrong state

 

[GMJeff]

I'm sorry if my point was missed. In 4 months I've seen 2 other Lumia 900's outside of an AT&T store. In two years I've seen a handful of wp7 devices, certainly less than 10. I'm pretty sure this is the norm for most of us on this board. Here's a test: go to the mall tomorrow and start an informal count. When you get to 10 consumer owned wp7 devices you are allowed to leave. See you next week...or next month.

My point is, if the device was really selling well, we would see them. We don't. At least, I don't. If you do, then I guess I must live in the wrong town When I see numbers like 330,000, I don't get the surprised. Or maybe I get surprised that they are that high. Maybe there is a part of the country that is wp7 heaven.

I'm hoping wp8/w8 changes everything, just like the rest of us do. I've used an iPhone, a few Android devices, and even one Blackberry, and I definitely don't want to go back to any of those. I don't want this to fail. The good news is Microsoft has a ton of money, and they really can't afford to not be successful in this market.

edit: ...and regarding the snowmobiles in FLA analogy: Cellphones are sold and used everywhere in the US in mass quantities. I'm not talking about snow shoes in Miami. I'm talking about a product that most of us use. You say "flawed scenario with so many variables." What variables? I'm taking the visual evidence from restaurants, malls, casinos, movie theaters, museums, etc. in three different towns that I frequent over the course of a normal month. Not to mention the countless business offices I visit during the work week. Like I said early in this post, maybe I'm just living in the wrong state

The point of socialcarpet's comment was that just because you don't see a Lumia on any given day doesn't mean that someone in some other area doesn't see hundreds in a day.

Based on their grand total of 110,000,000 people that bought cell phones, I would be a little worried of those numbers also. The press has been rather adament of Android activating 1 million devices a day, that equals out to be roughly 91 million handsets in a quarter. That leaves approximately 19 million iPhones, Blackberries and Windows Phones. I am sure some of those numbers are tablets as well.

Do you see how some people can think these numbers are skewed.

I mean, I could go to the mall as mentioned previously and ask the first 110 people what kind of cell phone they have in their pocket. The answers they give me could represent 1 million people per response. Would I have 110 million iPhones then, maybe 50/50 iPhone and Android, or what mix?

One last thought, Nokia has not been a big seller in America since the 90's, so with the HTC One X, Samsung Galaxy SIII and other mega phones being sold, why would they sell a large amount of Nokia Windows Phones now. Look at their numbers outside of the US, that is where they will sell much better.

 

[AngryNil]

Based on their grand total of 110,000,000 people that bought cell phones, I would be a little worried of those numbers also. The press has been rather adament of Android activating 1 million devices a day, that equals out to be roughly 91 million handsets in a quarter. That leaves approximately 19 million iPhones, Blackberries and Windows Phones.

No. 110 million smartphones is a US figure, while 1 million activations is global.

 

[Kredrian]

I don't care if they only sold 3 phones. I got my superphone and that's all I care about.

Sent from my Lumia 900 using Board Express

 

[Thuoudo]

edit: ...and regarding the snowmobiles in FLA analogy: Cellphones are sold and used everywhere in the US in mass quantities. I'm not talking about snow shoes in Miami. I'm talking about a product that most of us use. You say "flawed scenario with so many variables." What variables? I'm taking the visual evidence from restaurants, malls, casinos, movie theaters, museums, etc. in three different towns that I frequent over the course of a normal month. Not to mention the countless business offices I visit during the work week. Like I said early in this post, maybe I'm just living in the wrong state

Maybe you don't know what anecdotal evidence is? Anecdotal evidence - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Because of the small sample, there is a larger chance that it may be true but unreliable due to cherry-picked or otherwise non-representative samples of typical cases.

...

Misuse of anecdotal evidence is a logical fallacy and is sometimes informally referred to as the "person who" fallacy ("I know a person who..."; "I know of a case where..." etc. Compare with hasty generalization). Anecdotal evidence is not necessarily representative of a "typical" experience; statistical evidence can more accurately determine how typical something is.

Around here, US Cellular is the dominant carrier. If we're staying with the "go to the mall and see" method of measure, I'd say 6 of 10 people have USCC. They have carried one Windows Phone.

T-Mobile is pretty much non-existent in my city of 233,000. They carry a couple WPs. Heck, two of those 10 people who don't have US Cellular probably have Verizon or Sprint...both sitting at precisely one WP each.

That leaves ATT (and I'm not counting prepaids here for the sake of discussion). One of ten people around here have ATT, most are with them just to have an iPhone.

I own more WPs than I've seen in the wild...

 

[btgusto]

I am not worried about those numbers IF they are true. I just think, "Well, how many Nokias sold in America last year during that same quarter or entire year?" Nokia was already hurting when MS came to them. They are still trying to find their way back.
I believe instead of being a hardware partner Nokia will eventually be absorbed by MS as their cell phone hardware division instead of "partner"

 

[the_tyrant]

I can imagine all the hipsters buying windows phones now, "The platform that doesn't sell out" can be the new slogan.

 

[vp710]

I can imagine all the hipsters buying windows phones now, "The platform that doesn't sell out" can be the new slogan.