Could BlackBerry 10 kill Windows Phone?

[brmiller1976]

I'm starting to worry a bit.

I played with a colleague's "Developer Alpha" version of the BB10 OS, and I had a couple of observations:

1) In Alpha form, BB10 is more complete and less buggy than release-day WP8 was. It has a better music player, and the experience is just as smooth and sexy.

2) RIM took its time to "get everything right." They've ramped up hardware production, they have every major carrier in the US and worldwide supporting their launch (unlike WP) and there are unlikely to be device shortages, regardless of demand. They also spent time to fix and tweak every element of the software experience.

3) RIM is launching with over 100,000 apps in the BB10 store.

4) RIM is making it easy for Android apps to be ported over to native BB10. That means that apps like Instagram and others will be reasonably easy to develop for BB10, and will arrive for that platform long before we get them.

5) RIM, the principal hardware company for BlackBerry, is profitable (as of last quarter) and cash-flow-positive. Nokia, the principal hardware company for Windows Phone, is bleeding cash fast.

6) RIM is supporting carrier-independent OTA updates, just like Apple and Google. That means that any bugs that do occur can be fixed quickly, without a Portico-style "is my phone going to get it or not" mess.

I was super-impressed with the UI, slickness, and overall polish of BB10. I am getting worried... this OS could be good enough to push Microsoft out of third place.

Microsoft needs to step up its game. Third place is NOT guaranteed.

 

[windocks96]

MS has Windows (7/8/RT) and all the integration you get with that.
I personally think it would be a matter of preference.
If you have a surface, and desktop running W8 everything is just smooth unlike the other OS's (Android,BB,Symbian,etc)

 

[brmiller1976]

True, but Surface sales are hardly setting the world on fire.

 

[Dare2Blink]

hmm what exactly to you mean by "more complete"? Please be more specific. Customers won't care if a platform is "more complete and less buggy than release date wp8" if wp8 was launched 3 months before and by the time bb10 is released, it has fixed it's minor problems. I can believe that it has a better music player, but there is no chance that they have anything as good as xbox music (or nokia music for that matter) and from what I have seen bb10 does not look nearly as good as wp8. In fact it looks about as good as android.

Taking your time to "get everything right" is not necessarily the right choice since time is of the essence in a business like this. I think the approach of releasing a bit early and quickly patching any bugs that Microsoft , nokia and even htc and Samsung are doing, is a much better approach to take because it will use the very important Christmas time to sell devices. Who cares if RIM is launching with 100.000 apps... wp8 launched with 150.000 + apps and many more developers are attracted to wp8 than to RIM.

The way nokia is doing lately it's only a matter of time before it becomes profitable again, just look at how it's doing in china and pretty much everywhere else in the world. They just need to ramp up production to fix the shortage problems since the demand factor is definitely there.

OTA is present in wp8 in case you have not noticed, and all wp8 phones will get portico, that is guaranteed and there is no mess. It's true that the international version of the 920 is only getting it in February, but that is hardly a train smash in my books and since the American version seems to need it the most anyway that is fine by me.

The UI of blackberry is just another ios/android clone with nothing really new about it. It simply seems like a more polished android phone. It has no wow factor that WP8 gets from most people when they see the startscreen. All the wp8 needs is the notification center and bb10 will have nothing over wp8.

Again I'm not saying its bad at all, but it is simply wayyyyy to late (about 2 year's too late) to the market to be able to save itself. BB10 is dead even before it launches in my opinion, and even if i'm wrong, it will never appeal to more people than wp8 does.

 

[brmiller1976]

OTA is in WP, but updates are not simultaneous (unlike BB10). If AT&T decides that my 8X won't get Portico until June, then I won't get it until June.

As for "more complete," BB10 Alpha has apps that WP8 still doesn't have, like Adobe Reader, Facebook (official version), Twitter (feature-complete), online banking from major US and European banks, etc. It's sorta hard for them not to get access due to their simple Android port.

it is simply wayyyyy to late (about 2 year's too late) to the market to be able to save itself

Not sure if I buy that. Windows Phone 8 is a brand new platform, just like BB10, and launched in mid November. BB10 is launching a few months later, but will be more feature-complete (assuming no other updates past Portico hit).

The obvious benefit of "taking time to get everything right" is the risk that BB10 in early 2013 will be a less buggy and more complete experience than WP8 in early 2013.

And RIM sold more BlackBerry phones in this past quarter than Nokia has sold Lumias in its entire run.

We're in a precarious place. Microsoft needs to execute better. The assumption that we're in a comfortable third place and RIM is dead is the wrong one to make, and the compromises around user experience that have been made to date need to end.

 

[crystal_planet]

Disclaimer: I'm an ex BlackBerry user so I will always have a soft spot for them, however I don't see them gaining any ground on us unless BB10 is so polished and so impressive, that it will win over converts immediately. BlackBerry users are fiercely proud of their devices and those will jump on board - heck I bet most have their pre orders in already. As for the rest of us? Aside from the plan (and that's all it is at this point) that the new devices will bring over Android apps slicker than poop through a goose, I haven't seen any evidence of that. If it was that easy the playbook would already have them.

As for the last quarter sales beating us - I'd like to see the evidence, because every chart I've seen shows RIMM has lost marketshare in every country in the world. The only places they may be still slightly viable is in bourgeoning markets in developing countries where RIMM can dump truckloads of curves at cheap prices.

 

[Laura Knotek]

OTA is in WP, but updates are not simultaneous (unlike BB10). If AT&T decides that my 8X won't get Portico until June, then I won't get it until June.

I'm an ex-BlackBerry user. BlackBerry had OTA updates 3 years ago. However, it was still up to the carriers to release those updates. The North American carriers typically were slow. I'd delete the vendor.xml file to install an update from Vodafone UK or some other European carrier, since AT&T was typically 6 months behind on updates. I think I only used an official AT&T BBOS version once or twice in the almost 3 years I used a BlackBerry.

As for "more complete," BB10 Alpha has apps that WP8 still doesn't have, like Adobe Reader, Facebook (official version), Twitter (feature-complete), online banking from major US and European banks, etc. It's sorta hard for them not to get access due to their simple Android port.

It does not appear that BlackBerry will get Netflix. The Playbook does not have it, even though an Android version is available. The typical consumer would be more interested in Netflix than a PDF app. Only business users really need PDF apps, and smartphone sales are definitely made up mostly by consumers not enterprise users.

Not sure if I buy that. Windows Phone 8 is a brand new platform, just like BB10, and launched in mid November. BB10 is launching a few months later, but will be more feature-complete (assuming no other updates past Portico hit).

The obvious benefit of "taking time to get everything right" is the risk that BB10 in early 2013 will be a less buggy and more complete experience than WP8 in early 2013.

And RIM sold more BlackBerry phones in this past quarter than Nokia has sold Lumias in its entire run.

RIM lost 1 million subscribers in the last quarter. It had 80 million subscribers previously, but is now down to 79 million subscribers. This was the first time in RIM's history that it ever reported a decline in subscribers. That's what caused the stock to tank the day after the earnings report.

We're in a precarious place. Microsoft needs to execute better. The assumption that we're in a comfortable third place and RIM is dead is the wrong one to make, and the compromises around user experience that have been made to date need to end.

I do not see where RIM will succeed, since it is going to lose money on its BIS fees too. The carriers will no longer be providing a flat subsidy fee for each subscriber as has always been the case. So RIM will lose its service revenues.

Similarly, the emerging markets will not be able to afford the new BB10 devices, which will cost a lot more than those cheap Curves.

 

[brmiller1976]

Netflix is in decline, and I'd expect that BB will get a port of the Android version pronto.

 

[Duvi]

Sure it's possible. It's also possible that both can succeed!

 

[MaulerX]

"Could BlackBerry 10 kill Windows Phone?"

I highly doubt it. RIM has to battle a perception and mindshare problem, very much like WP is doing now with iPhone and Android. WP is finally getting some real traction (I've actually gotten people come up to me and say "Oh wow, is that that new Nokia phone I saw on TV? Looks nice!"). Also, we're starting to see signs that China can single handedly keep WP afloat. The China Mobile deal along with the recently revealed subsidized pricing is shaping up to be extremely huge for Nokia and WP in general.

 

[ashykat]

I think for the most part, people choose something other than iOS or Android either because it's already familiar to them, or because it's much different than what they normally use. Windows Phone has that, "ooh what's that?" appeal to it because of the bright colors and the live tiles. The new hardware is slick and Microsoft is really putting their money behind advertising. BB10 doesn't have that same, "ooh what's that?" The hardware looks okay but there is a ton of bezel from what I could see on the leaks. The gestures look awesome (I was a huge webOS fan so I'm partial to gestures) but if someone in a cell phone store picks it up without knowing anything about it, will they be able to figure it out? The icon layout is very similar to iOS and Android, and the home screen doesn't really pop out at you. This doesn't mean it won't be a slick and easy to use OS, it's just that it may not be an attention grabber which seems to be what's needed nowadays. So, that leaves the people who are familiar already as the likely buyers; people who already use BlackBerry. Will it be too different for them? Are enough of them happy enough to stick with RIM? Only time will tell, but I don't think it'll be easy for RIM to compete with Microsoft.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Honestabebread]

BlackBerry can come out with the best OS in the world and everyone would still puke at the thought of getting a BlackBerry. Conversely, people are interested in WP8 whether they end up buying it or not, they have curiosity.

 

[brmiller1976]

BlackBerry can come out with the best OS in the world and everyone would still puke at the thought of getting a BlackBerry.

I'm not sure I agree. Hipsters might not like the BlackBerry brand, but then again, they also tell me they would never consider a Windows Phone because "they don't want the blue screen of death and viruses on their phones." I'd wager that "Windows" as a brand has bigger baggage issues than "BlackBerry."

 

[Laura Knotek]

I'm not sure I agree. Hipsters might not like the BlackBerry brand, but then again, they also tell me they would never consider a Windows Phone because "they don't want the blue screen of death and viruses on their phones." I'd wager that "Windows" as a brand has bigger baggage issues than "BlackBerry."

It all depends. The folks who had a locked down company-issued BlackBerry on BES who could not even use AppWorld might be turned off BlackBerry entirely. Those folks might associate BlackBerry as a "corporate leash" good for nothing but getting their work emails, and something that kept them chained to their jobs 24/7/365.

A lot of younger folks might be Xbox fans. Windows Phone might appeal to them for the Xbox tie-in.

 

[ImAdrian23]

I don't think BB10 will take off. At least it didn't got me. Why would I want a mix of all OSes?
In my country WPs biggest problem is Android, because they people haven't had the oportunity to see how fast and better WP is compared to their Android lag machines (don't deny it, I have 2 friends with G Nexus w/ latest software and both are laggy, restarting and they change their theme 24/7 -even when we go out)
2/32 are having a WP in my class and soon another one will join the ship.
Oh and, it could've been more but, Orange's sellers are stupid (for sure) and recommended a friend the S III mini over the 8S, although that's what she wanted.

 

[Villain]

I miss a lot (and I mean a lot) of small features from blackberry... I'm going to wait a bit BUT I may switch to bb again.

 

[EnolaB29]

I want to warn all those people living in the US as there BB might be dead already, but in the rest of the world, and expecially developing countries it is still very much alive. I live in South Africa and it was on the news this weekend that BB still has the largest share in the smart phone market. This means that all the large companies will first make apps available for BB before WP8 (if at all).

I am trying to decide between WP8 and BB myself.
BB Pros:
unlimited data for fixed fee
good local app selection
smooth interface
Cons:
ugly

WP8 pros:
beautiful
smooth
integration with W8

Cons
A LOT of bugs and syncing problems (if I believe the forums, as I have not found anybody with a WP8)
No (of hardly any) local apps

 

[SnailUK]

Blackberrys were always good business phones. Yet they are trying to compete against consumer devices.

They need to go big on business, do something iOS, android, WP, etc can't, I just don't know what that is.

 

[TryllZ]

I share the same feeling. MS made a good working thing messed up by not providing a balanced backups, backups are made here & there [Skydrive/liver servers etc..] software, the UI is just not enough anymore for consumers..

MS needs to fix the following to take over.

Export to SIM
Custom colored tiles
Levels for brigtness
Profiles for sound
Proper backup solution [Complete/Selective/Custom]
Custom Ringtone selection [More than 1 min., etc]

And I already see MS taking the third spot...

 

[JamesDax]

No!