Go the Apple path, but better?

[trandz]

Nokia accounts for the vast majority of WP sales, by a mile.....and a half right? Now MS owns Nokia and Nokia can produce hardware with a Microsoft name on it. I believe that WP like iOS looks very....rich, classy, etc. so why cant Microsoft just ditch HTCs, Samsung's efforts for WP since those 2 dont really care, or amount for any market share anyway.

However, instead of just producing 1-2 phones a year, MSFT can produce 4-5? A phablet, a 1020 successor, an Icon-esque phone, a low-ender. Give color options like Nokia does now, and call it a day. This will have an effect of never saturating, fragmenting the OS and on top would be beneficial to their efforts of unifying WP,and Windows.

 

[realwarder]

To win in the mobile space Microsoft needs Windows to outsell Android. The only way to do that is have other companies sell phones with Windows Phone on it.

They will never win by trying to be the second 'Premium' phone, because let's face it, only Apple have entire culture with Applevision reality fields and I just don't see Microsoft ever getting there. They have a history of being the bulk selling, functional, dependable, standard platform, not the premium one and stuff like that is hard to shake up.

 

[neo158]

To win in the mobile space Microsoft needs Windows to outsell Android. The only way to do that is have other companies sell phones with Windows Phone on it.

They will never win by trying to be the second 'Premium' phone, because let's face it, only Apple have entire culture with Applevision reality fields and I just don't see Microsoft ever getting there. They have a history of being the bulk selling, functional, dependable, standard platform, not the premium one and stuff like that is hard to shake up.

^^This

I've never understood why some Lumia hipsters think that Microsoft should become like Apple and be the only manufacturer of Windows Phones, the other OEMs contribute to market share as well and saying that they don't is just ignorance, plain and simple!!

So OP, do you think Surface should be the only Windows based tablet on the market as well then?

 

[jmshub]

To win in the mobile space Microsoft needs Windows to outsell Android. The only way to do that is have other companies sell phones with Windows Phone on it.

They will never win by trying to be the second 'Premium' phone, because let's face it, only Apple have entire culture with Applevision reality fields and I just don't see Microsoft ever getting there. They have a history of being the bulk selling, functional, dependable, standard platform, not the premium one and stuff like that is hard to shake up.

Microsoft doesn't have to outsell Android to win, and that's good. Because they won't. Not for the foreseeable future. They are too far behind and not gaining nearly quickly enough for that. Who knows where the magic line sits, but I'd say even with 10% of the market, WP would have full parity with Android and IOS, where you wouldn't hear about an app gap, or hear about app developers saying that WP is too small to develop for, or general lack of public awareness of Windows Phone.

 

[dznk]

As said above, Microsoft's goal is to catchup as much as possible where market share is concerned. It also can't be a premium only supplier like Apple is. To be that, you need cult like status and the marketing and hype that will naturally sell your product even though it may not be the best and may be priced above a competitor with a similar spec of phone. Apple has this and Microsoft does not and will not have this (not in the near future anyway) unfortunately. It's not just Microsoft, other OEM's in the mobile business don't have the same status either.

Microsoft simply has to play the market share numbers game now. I'd again agree with jmshub's 10% market share. Hit that, and there are 3 main players within the mobile industry. Microsoft may well be in a solid third place at the moment, but the market is still seen as having just the two front runners in Android and iOS. To get that 10%, you need cheap phones that will sell in high numbers and get you that market share. Microsoft need to concentrate on producing phones on the lower end of the scale, or sell higher end devices themselves, but make sure that OEM's push a bucket load of cheaper handsets. Cheaper handsets = more market share. More market share = more successful in the mobile OS war. Sure you've still got to have the odd few premium handsets, but there is no doubt that the 520 in the past year has been more succesful than practically all of the higher end Lumia's combined. Microsoft can't be concentrating on profits. They need more and more people to use WP even if this means making hardly any money on WP itself.

 

[poiman]

I agree, OEMs are the key for this game. Microsoft isn't Apple, they don't rely solely on themselves. More and more OEMs have to make Windows Phones and I believe Microsoft will have to start giving it away to them. Imagine you are entering a store and you want to buy a smartphone that is not an iPhone (because, realistically, this is what happens: the great majority of people think about it like "I want an iPhone or I don't want an iPhone"). You enter the store and you see 15 Androids and 15 Windows Phones. Of course the probability of a WP being sold is going to be good. Unfortunately, what is happening right now is that you enter a store and you see 20 Androids and 5 WPs! It's hard to get noticed like that.

 

[trandz]

^^This

I've never understood why some Lumia hipsters think that Microsoft should become like Apple and be the only manufacturer of Windows Phones, the other OEMs contribute to market share as well and saying that they don't is just ignorance, plain and simple!!

So OP, do you think Surface should be the only Windows based tablet on the market as well then?

Yes absolutely.

And never did I say premium only. I said Microsoft /Nokia being the sole products. If you think HTC and Samsung make up any substantial market share your off your rocker. You think of Nokia and Lumia whenever you hear windows phone and you know it.

 

[Nogitsune Micah]

^^This

I've never understood why some Lumia hipsters think that Microsoft should become like Apple and be the only manufacturer of Windows Phones, the other OEMs contribute to market share as well and saying that they don't is just ignorance, plain and simple!!

So OP, do you think Surface should be the only Windows based tablet on the market as well then?

Yes because with HTC, Samsung, huawei and others...that combined 8% really matters /sarcasm

Would love for Microsoft to just drop the other OEMs simply because we really do not need them. I could see if any of them matter for us but they don't much. Nobody talks about Samsung or HTC when you discuss windows phone. Nobody mistakes my 1520 for an 8x or ativ s because nobody cares about them lol.
I would love for microsoft to take an Apple approach because I envy what the Apple users have.

Apple controls hardware and software and the experience doesn't feel like a bunch of companies putting their hands in the pot. Its more cohesive.

Also I wish Microsoft had the balls to drop some of the OEM who are doing the android and windows thing surface is good and if Microsoft wasn't so worried about angering the OEM I have no doubt in my mind that surface likely would be much better than it is now simply because they could go full force.

 

[a5cent]

@those advocating for more OEMs

My question is why? Aren't you taking for granted that more sellers = more sales. The thing is, that is not how economies work, when consumers have choices. Assuming prices are similar (which is true for Android and WP), consumers will buy what is perceived to be the more desirable product, no matter how many are peddling the "other stuff".

At least nobody I know, that uses iOS or Android, would switch just because they get a larger selection of WP devices from HTC, LG and Samsung.

Edit: I'm not saying MS should drop all their OEMs, but I'm not convinced that having more WP OEMs will do anything for WP.

 

[trandz]

This would make WP more desirable. One major reason people stay away from Android is because of fragmentation. Sure WP doesn't have to deal with each OEM's skins hindering performance, people DO have to deal with deficiencies of not getting a Nokia WP when choosing an HTC or Samsung. They don't have the Nokia apps, Nokia often releases exclusives also, they update the OS faster, etc.

 

[Nogitsune Micah]

I say drop Samsung and their cheap crap...work with HTC and Nokia tbh. In an ideal scenario.

 

[neo158]

Yes absolutely.

And never did I say premium only. I said Microsoft /Nokia being the sole products. If you think HTC and Samsung make up any substantial market share your off your rocker. You think of Nokia and Lumia whenever you hear windows phone and you know it.

I never said they make up substantial market share but as a Lumia Hipster even you have to admit that Microkia can't do it alone, market share is market share whatever way you look at it. Windows Phone has a small market share even with other OEMs, let's face it WP just isn't desirable enough to justify becoming a premium OS with just Microkia creating devices. When I think of Windows Phone I think of Windows Phone not Microkia!!

 

[neo158]

I say drop Samsung and their cheap crap...work with HTC and Nokia tbh. In an ideal scenario.

I say that's an idiotic idea, whatever you may think of Samsung they contribute to market share as much as HTC and Huawai!!

 

[a5cent]

let's face it WP just isn't desirable enough to justify becoming a premium OS with just Microkia creating devices.

And heir in lies the huge misconception (I think) MS could have a hundred OEMs peddling WP devices... that doesn't make the slightest difference in terms of how desirable WP is... it's still the same OS... not one bit more desirable, not one bit less desirable..

 

[dznk]

@those advocating for more OEMs

My question is why? I think you are all taking for granted that more sellers = more sales. However, that is not how economies work, when consumers have choices. Assuming prices are similar (which is true for Android and WP), consumers will buy what is perceived to be the more desirable product, no matter how many are peddling the "other stuff".

At least nobody I know that uses iOS or Android would switch, just because they get a larger selection of WP devices from HTC, LG and Samsung.

Edit: I'm not saying MS should drop all their OEMs, but I'm not convinced that having more WP OEMs will do anything for WP.

I do see where you're coming from. OEM's do not always equal more sales. You only have to look at HTC and Samsung with WP to know that. But if a few OEM's actually got behind WP, then it will surely increase overall sales of WP. WP has had two large OEM companies but both, quite frankly, didn't put in the effort required. I think they were decent handsets they brought out, but it was more about testing the water more than anything else in my opinion. Those two are still firmly committed to Android.

If you stripped Android of some of it's OEM's, say HTC, Sony and LG. Android sales would be down on the whole. They'd still be impressive, but they'd be down. OEM's can make quite a big difference if they get it right.

Basically I'd say that if OEM's got behind WP and actually spent time and money investing in making the platform work for themselves, WP sales on the whole would go up and that would be a good thing. Microsoft/Nokia can only do so much by themselves. I feel that the OEM 'model' would work best for pushing more units. If WP is to jump past iOS in market share, I think OEM's would help, as long as they put the time and effort into it. The trouble is, I'm not so sure I see that happening. Would any OEM's like Sony, LG, Samsung etc put as much effort into WP as they do for Android. Not so sure at the moment.

It will be a very interesting year to see what happens in this area. I think the OEM's will wait for a while yet, just to see what phones Microsoft delivers after the takeover.

 

[a5cent]

If you stripped Android of some of it's OEM's, say HTC, Sony and LG. Android sales would be down on the whole. They'd still be impressive, but they'd be down. OEM's can make quite a big difference if they get it right.

I don't see any evidence for that. Why wouldn't those people just buy a Samsung device instead, or one of the many Chinese options? A small minority of hardcore LG, HTC or Sony fans might be disappointed and consider something else, but tell them they'll lose all their Android apps in their move to WP, and even most of them would decide to stay within the Android ecosystem.

Doesn't the fact that HTC and Samsung have somewhat dialled down their WP efforts (instead of doubling down), without that having had any noticeable affect on WP market share, suggest that this OEM/sales relationship doesn't actually exist?

I think OEM's would help, as long as they put the time and effort into it. The trouble is, I'm not so sure I see that happening.

Yeah, I think that is a fairy-tale too. So far, not a single OEM has got on board without significant support from MS. Samsung gets cheaper Windows licenses, MS had to pay for all of HTC's WP marketing, not to mention the 500 million per quarter that Nokia got out of it. None of them would have considered WP without those benefits. No OEM has any direct interest in any ecosystem. What they care about is their bottom lines.

But if a few OEM's actually got behind WP, then it will surely increase overall sales of WP.

Can you give me a concrete example of what an OEM could possibly do that would have that affect? I still don't see it.

IMHO OEM's do have the ability to make their own Android handsets more desirable than a competitors Android handsets. I don't see how an OEM can make WP more desirable than Android (or visa versa). Put yourself in their shoes... Could Sony, LG or HTC do anything with their Android devices, that would make you dump WP? I know Google could... I'd say Sony, LG or HTC can't.

 

[StevoPhilo]

I think both make solid points, but I think the problem is WP8 as an phone OS right now. Maybe in 8.1 they can get everyone to jump onboard, but as it stands right now they don't need other OEMs. Don't get me wrong, I think variety is good, but when you compare WP8 to Android in terms of capabilities most people don't even look in the direction of WP8.

I think if they get all the kinks out of the system in 8.1 then they could consider Samsung and HTC making some nice phones.

 

[Nogitsune Micah]

I never said they make up substantial market share but as a Lumia Hipster even you have to admit that Microkia can't do it alone, market share is market share whatever way you look at it. Windows Phone has a small market share even with other OEMs, let's face it WP just isn't desirable enough to justify becoming a premium OS with just Microkia creating devices. When I think of Windows Phone I think of Windows Phone not Microkia!!

actually they are essentially doing it on their own...with Nokia and once the purchase is done they will then own 90% of the windows phone market. So yes they could do it on their own.

Second of all...of course you think windows phone when you think Windows Phone. You're on wpc. The average Joe thinks of lumia/nokia when they reference windows phone. Just like when average Joe thinks of android they think Droid or galaxy.

 

[dznk]

I don't see any evidence for that. Why wouldn't those people just buy a Samsung device instead, or one of the many Chinese options? A small minority of hardcore LG, HTC or Sony fans might be disappointed and consider something else, but tell them they'll lose all their Android apps in their move to WP, and even most of them would decide to stay within the Android ecosystem.

There's no evidence, as a major player has never fully dropped support for Android as far as I'm aware, but you would never get them all transferring over to another Android OEM like Samsung. You'll always lose some because of the brand image. If HTC switched fully to WP (I doubt they'll do this, it's just an example), you would get some that would happily keep buying HTC phones even though they've moved platforms. Like you said though, I'm sure the numbers switching in this example would be fairly low, but brand image would play a part and Android would lose some customers because of it. That's really what I was getting at if all of those OEM's didn't make Android handsets, some would inevitably not be on Android, hence their numbers would be down. Will this ever happen though... nope I very much doubt it.

Doesn't the fact that HTC and Samsung have somewhat dialled down their WP efforts (instead of doubling down), without that having had any noticeable affect on WP market share, suggest that this OEM/sales relationship doesn't actually exist?

In a way it has already potentially had an affect. If they had doubled down (Flagship phones coming out on WP, more OS features and exclusive apps etc), then WP's market share should be higher than what it is now. So in a way it has had made a difference as sales would have probably have been different (higher) from what they are now.

Yeah, I think that is a fairy-tale too. So far, not a single OEM has got on board without significant support from MS. Samsung gets cheaper Windows licenses, MS had to pay for all of HTC's WP marketing, not to mention the 500 million per quarter that Nokia got out of it. None of them would have considered WP without those benefits. No OEM has any direct interest in any ecosystem. What they care about is their bottom lines.

Yep, agree entirely

Can you give me a concrete example of what an OEM could possibly do that would have that affect? I still don't see it.

IMHO OEM's do have the ability to make their own Android handsets more desirable than a competitors Android handsets. I don't see how an OEM can make WP more desirable than Android (or visa versa). Put yourself in their shoes... Could Sony, LG or HTC do anything with their Android devices, that would make you dump WP? I know Google could... I'd say Sony, LG or HTC can't.

Good point. This is the million dollar question really. How can an OEM or OEM's make a large difference for WP. I'll give my examples of how they could possibly make a difference. I think it's good to bear in mind that it's not just about getting people to switch from their Android phone to a WP. You can always 'steal' customers away from their iPhones, BlackBerry's and even feature phones.

• Variety for people. Lumia's have been succesful not because of the 1020 alone, or the 920 alone etc. Lumia's give people the opportunity to buy a phone at pretty much any part of the price spectrum. So what would be the point of an OEM then? Well, the UK for example, where I'm from. If you want a 'budget' WP, you get a 520. Not actually that many places stock the 620 now and especially the 720. Well, what if you are considering a change (which quite a few people do) and you just want a budget phone with a bigger or smaller screen or simply just didn't like the look and feel of the 520? Seeing a few different other budget models from Samsung, Sony and LG for example, may well get them to purchase one of those on WP. The same goes for the higher end devices. A WP with 5" or 5.5" screen, or a WP with a fingerprint reader, or a WP with a stylus etc. OEM's provde choice and choice is nearly always good for the consumer (and the product it runs on).
  
  
• Flagship exclusives. Android has it's OEM flagships with the HTC One, Galaxy S4, LG G2 etc But what if there were Flagship phones on WP, that were just as good, with a different unique design. If you went into a shop and saw 4 flagship OEM phones on WP other than say just the 1020 and 1520 at the moment, this would perhaps attract someone away from an Android device if they thought one of these flagship WP's were better or they didn't like Android in the first place and thought one of these looked better than an iPhone. People at the moment are begging for new high end Lumia's, because they either don't want the 1020 (screen size, CPU/GPU, camera hump etc) and that the 1520 is simply too big. An OEM in this example could have plugged that gap quite nicely.
  
  
• The perception of more devices = a better OS. Some shops you go into you'll for example, see 3 WP's on the wall and 15 Android devices for example. Average joe, who is not tech savvy in the slightest might naturally assume that WP is not worth bothering with as it seems Android is more popular. If there were 9 WP's on display and 12 Android devices, you'd surely get more people purchasing WP's, due to perception and overall choice of style and specs to choose from.

I don't think there is one golden rule that if you do it, people will come flocking over from all sides over to WP. A combination of the above, may well get more people onto WP. But again they're just my thoughts, I may be proved completely wrong, who knows. The above though require OEM's to put a lot of time, money and resources into it to make those things work. As we have both said, at the moment we can't see that happening. Another half hearted attempt from any OEM on the planet, will not work. Samsung and HTC have proved that.

Without true commitment from OEM's, it's still going to be up to MS/Nokia to do their best job. As good as they have done so far, it's frankly not enough when talking about Worldwide marketshare. The only way I can see WP taking 10% and higher worldwide market share is if WP8.1 or WP9.0 blows people away (this is what I'm hoping for) and they naturally switch over, or OEM's put their heart into making proper WP devices (less likely to happen).

 

[theefman]

Absolutely MS should go it alone. Maybe the question should be where are the other OEMs now? Any new devices from HTC, Samsung or anyone else? Any upcoming promotion for a new flagship? Over the last couple of quarters Nokia's market share has increased steadily and they are now over 90% so effectively they ARE the only WP OEM.

Microsoft is just too scared and entrenched in their old ways of relying on their so called partners but those partners are actively releasing devices running rival operating systems, so Microsoft doesn't owe them anything and should start fighting harder to push their platforms and to heck with the OEMs because effectively, that's what they are saying about Microsoft.