iPhone market share projected to be 68% in US by the time the market saturates

[Jas00555]

iPhone Market Share Expected to Hit 68% in the United States by 2017 - Mac Rumors

I find this hard to believe seeing as how my 1520 alone has sold my sister, mom, and two co-workers (who all have iPhones) to get a WP, with the main reason being that they have W8, so they might as well, but I see a ton of sites reporting this as fact. Hopefully this isn't true.

 

[fatclue_98]

iPhone Market Share Expected to Hit 68% in the United States by 2017 - Mac Rumors

I find this hard to believe seeing as how my 1520 alone has sold my sister, mom, and two co-workers (who all have iPhones) to get a WP, with the main reason being that they have W8, so they might as well, but I a ton of sites reporting this as fact. Hopefully this isn't true.

It's a prediction by a so-called analyst. Probably the same nimrod who predicted 15 hurricanes for us this year. I swear these people must be paid for their "services" by an interested party.

 

[Mr Lebowski]

I believe it, Apple is...

I saw a bunch of kids in a mall giving one of their friends a really hard time for having a 1520
''why u have a sidewalk in your pocket that's stupid get a iphone dude wtf ! " every kid was laughing at him.
I bet he returns it for the iphone. Kids will be the determining factor in 2017

 

[Jas00555]

It's a prediction by a so-called analyst. Probably the same nimrod who predicted 15 hurricanes for us this year. I swear these people must be paid for their "services" by an interested party.

maybe, but in the real world, I see a lot of iPhones. Granted, I'm at a university so my experiences may be different, but I could potentially see this happening.

Then again, it could just be an analyst with this kind of mindset http://xkcd.com/605/

 

[Mr Lebowski]

iPhone Market Share Expected to Hit 68% in the United States by 2017 - Mac Rumors

I find this hard to believe seeing as how my 1520 alone has sold my sister, mom, and two co-workers (who all have iPhones) to get a WP, with the main reason being that they have W8, so they might as well, but I see a ton of sites reporting this as fact. Hopefully this isn't true.

maybe, but in the real world, I see a lot of iPhones. Granted, I'm at a university so my experiences may be different, but I could potentially see this happening.
Then again, it could just be an analyst with this kind of mindset xkcd: Extrapolating

See it's up to the kids to decide, it will happen :wink:

 

[Jas00555]

Yeah? What's your point? I find it hard to believe, but I could see it happen. I never said it was likely. A couple of months ago, I would find it hard to believe that MS would start the developer preview, but it still happened.

Edit: I typed that before you edited with a comment at the bottom, when I saw it, it was just quotes.

 

[Mr Lebowski]

Yeah? What's your point? I find it hard to believe, but I could see it happen. I never said it was likely. A couple of months ago, I would find it hard to believe that MS would start the developer preview, but it still happened.

Edit: I typed that before you edited with a comment at the bottom, when I saw it, it was just quotes.

No offence taken here, no offence given. I just see it as up to you guys in University -you all will decide - I think.
The kids I saw in the mall hated the 1520 they thought is was "a sidewalk" it was so big -"get a iphone dude wtf"

 

[fatclue_98]

maybe, but in the real world, I see a lot of iPhones. Granted, I'm at a university so my experiences may be different, but I could potentially see this happening.

Then again, it could just be an analyst with this kind of mindset xkcd: Extrapolating

No doubt there's a s**tload of iPhones out there. I just have a hard time seeing another 10% of share in only 4 years. Unless Samsung ditches Android for Tizen and Nokia stops shipping budget 520/521s, I just don't see it. Even the Moto G is going to have an impact on sales numbers.

 

[Jas00555]

No offence taken here, no offence given. I just see it as up to you guys in University -you all will decide - I think.
The kids I saw in the mall hated the 1520 they thought is was "a sidewalk" it was so big -"get a iphone dude wtf"

idk dude, that seems like a small minority of people who would say that to someone. I get "is that a phone?!" a lot (as do Note 3 owners), but no one has ever mocked me for it. What age group were these kids in?

 

[Mr Lebowski]

idk dude, that seems like a small minority of people who would say that to someone. I get "is that a phone?!" a lot (as do Note 3 owners), but no one has ever mocked me for it. What age group were these kids in?

14-16 yr olds I would guess, I kinda liked the sidewalk description, it made me laugh.

 

[ohgood]

iPhone Market Share Expected to Hit 68% in the United States by 2017 - Mac Rumors

I find this hard to believe seeing as how my 1520 alone has sold my sister, mom, and two co-workers (who all have iPhones) to get a WP, with the main reason being that they have W8, so they might as well, but I see a ton of sites reporting this as fact. Hopefully this isn't true.

Three years from now anything can happen. Just ask Microsoft or RIM about that.


Today ... right now.... Samsung is king.

 

[cckgz4]

Oh well

 

[Editguy1900]

I teach at a high school. There are a lot of cracked screen iPhones. But there are also a lot of Android phones and I'm also seeing Windows phones. As to the large screen, most kids think it's cool. I've also seen quite a few Galaxy Notes. Unfortunately, some of them keep believing that the next iPhone will be large. I don't believe Apple makes bold moves like that. Predictions like that are meaningless. Some of these same analysts were saying that Apple's stock price would be over $1000 a share this year. It's going to have to rise rapidly in the few days that are left for that to happen. Personally, I expect Android to continue to dominate. But I also think Windows phone is poised to grab a larger share. Time will tell. The problem is that no one ever calls these guys on their failed predictions. Two years ago it was predicted that T-mobile USA would either be sold off or out of business by the end of 2012. And here they are gaining customers. These analyst have the same bias problems that we all do and it comes out in their predictions.

 

[Coreldan]

Huh..? Doesn't iPhone have like.. 30% marketshare atm and it's only declining?

 

[dznk]

Huh..? Doesn't iPhone have like.. 30% marketshare atm and it's only declining?

You'll find there are different percentages reported by different tracking companies. I think it is around mid-thirties to 40% area, but it is rising in the US apparently. In several other countries and Europe as a whole, iOS is declining. It's crazy the amount of iPhones that are actually sold in the US. Apple must make quite a large chunk of it's profits from the US alone. In fact Apple don't actually need high marketshare or sell nearly as much as other brands because they have such a ridiculously high markup on each unit they sell.


At the moment, I can't see Apple taking 68% in the US. I can see them gaining some more marketshare in the US, but not to that extent. I can't see Android being knocked off the top spot for many years to come, especially worldwide. This is where WP is in a tricky little spot, because as more people currently own Smartphones than ever before, they need to not only attract users who are still coming from older feature phones and Blackberry's, but they also need to pinch some people away from iOS or Android. If this prediction of 68% is anywhere near the truth, WP will be in trouble in the US, as you would still expect Android to be in second place, which would leave little room for WP. I just can't see that many Android owners moving over to iOS, or most of the new smartphone users picking an iPhone, when there are cheaper alternatives available, which is why I can't see this prediction coming true. Just because a product is currently rising in marketshare, doesn't mean it keeps rising. You just know that if iOS does somehow manage to get this high, you'll have 'analysts' who will predict 80-90% by 20xx. Many of these predictions end up being false.

 

[tgp]

You'll find there are different percentages reported by different tracking companies. I think it is around mid-thirties to 40% area, but it is rising in the US apparently. In several other countries and Europe as a whole, iOS is declining. It's crazy the amount of iPhones that are actually sold in the US.

Yes you're pretty close on the iPhone's US market share. Interestingly enough, just a year or so ago Android overtook the iPhone in US market share. I'm not sure where the reasoning for the big gain comes from. And I've heard that WP's gain mostly comes from either new smartphone users or iPhone users, not Android users. Taking all this into consideration, I don't see it happening.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

 

[Citizen X]

I believe it, Apple is...

I saw a bunch of kids in a mall giving one of their friends a really hard time for having a 1520
''why u have a sidewalk in your pocket that's stupid get a iphone dude wtf ! " every kid was laughing at him.
I bet he returns it for the iphone. Kids will be the determining factor in 2017

The typical smartphone user isn't a "kid" with an iphone. "kids" with iphones are RICH. Don't dare do that American BS of calling rich people "middle class." The top selling Windows Phone is the 520. You could have picked up that phone up for $50 with no contract. The people buying that phone are not interested in the iphone. Or they had an iphone that broke and got a 521 to finish out their contract or to use while they save up more money to give to Cupertino.

You are right that peer pressure definitely drives Apple's market share. How else can you explain the fact when the Lumia 900 with LTE and a larger nice screen was being given away for free the iphone 4s with no LTE was selling for $199?

In fact Apple don't actually need high marketshare or sell nearly as much as other brands because they have such a ridiculously high markup on each unit they sell.

This is what a lot of people never seem to understand. I would much rather be apple than Samsung. Andriod's market share is full of low end orphan phones that can't run the latest OS. Apple's stable is full of premium handsets. Even their low end handsets are just former premium handsets that Apple devotees still buy years after they've been rendered obsolete. Why oh why would you go on contract with at&t and pay for all that expensive data... and then not even take advantage of their LTE network? Just so you can look cool in front of your friends with an idevice? No thanks.

 

[tgp]

The top selling Windows Phone is the 520. You could have picked up that phone up for $50 with no contract.

We often talk about the $50 Lumia 520, but it's locked to AT&T. The unlocked version, which I imagine is what's sold in the rest of the world, costs >$150 in the US. What do 520's cost in the rest of the world?

 

[dznk]

We often talk about the $50 Lumia 520, but it's locked to AT&T. The unlocked version, which I imagine is what's sold in the rest of the world, costs >$150 in the US. What do 520's cost in the rest of the world?

Well in the UK, the 520 on PAYG typically sells for around ?80-?90, which is around $130-$150. My Dad bought his on PAYG and it is unlocked.

 

[jmshub]

Market analysts typically do a terrible job at predicting these things.