I am kind of lumping VR and AR together here, but this is exactly why I don't expect Microsoft to be on top when the VR/AR market shakes out. Microsoft is focusing on business, and not doing much for the consumer market. While there is certainly room for VR/AR in the business field, I believe it will be secondary to the consumer market, somewhat how smartphones are today. While there is good logic to be made to use BlackBerry and even WM in business, iPhones and Androids dominate. Business users are first and foremost consumers.
Well AR is too expensive currently for consumers, at least in the developer model. I think MSFT is still baking the consumer version. I've seen proto's that have more of a glasses FF - still works in progress.
Although I agree the VR market has huge consumer potential, I don't think MS are neglecting that. They are all in on consumer VR with project scorpio, which will come bundled with mixed reality headsets and controllers which have no set up. There is at least one company making a AAA game for it, in VR - which in VR land is a first. So far its all little indie stuff, like the early days of 3d movies.
Same with VR on desktop IMO, although they have yet to have the products to really push either much.
Of course we've yet to see that release, but on paper they have a much stronger offering than anything else there right now. Still the tech is nascent, its early days.
Cords need to go wireless, the display technology improved to remove the nausea, gloves to replace controllers, and the headset made lighter and more comfortable. No setup, decent specs and lower entry point is a good start though.
Whomever is in the VR field though, unlike AR, which benefits from portability a lot, needs a static set-up for high end profits. Whether its playstation, apple or Microsoft. Mobile phones and all in ones will be peripheral to that core profit IMO. there's less point in mobility when you can't see your surroundings, and the immersion payoffs for powerful gpu trump those tiny payoffs by a large margin, as with big screen tvs/theatre versus mobile viewing.
I don't see consumer bleed occurring quite the say for say, a software for performing surgery virtually or designing jet engines as it does mobile phones, as I think it will be awhile before users take that home with them, and use it for their own consumption preferentially. In that respect at best its more like a laptop than a mobile phone. The consumer market will no doubt be huge though.
There's also little doubt in my mind there will be many players, before it is eventually reduced to two or three in each VR and AR.