Here's the thing... Everyone knows Apple releases yearly updates... because that is what they did. Prior to them doing so, nobody knew that's what they would do, it was all merely speculation. Android periodically publishes updates... But gives no schedule.
MS... Doesn't really have a track record yet, so everything is mere conjecture, just like it was when Android and iOS were new.
What you are saying, is that we can (and many do) base our expectations on companies past behaviour or track record. While that is true, I have absolutely no interest in that. I want to know why these companies have the update track records that they do and how that relates to the unique technical limitations of each OS and their companies business strategies. Merely having expectations based on past track records achieves none of that.
I vividly remember the day I understood to what extent Google involves themselves in the process that leads to an updated Android device. I reached that understanding based on developer documentation and other resources I had at my disposal. That was back in late 2009, when ?clair was all the rage, and arguably before Android had a track record.
I'm (possibly falsely) assuming I could have dug up the same information for iOS. Much can be unearthed in WP's technical documentation that relates to how Microsoft would like to handle WP updates, and the OS' interdependencies with hardware, but it always stops just short of making it absolutely clear.
- seems like as reasonable a number as any... Most US cell users buy on 2 year contracts, leading to a 2 year upgrade. 12 months leaves them out in the cold for half their term. At 24 months, they are likely buying a new phone anyhow.
- it is tied to the fact that MS is saying "we are not an android mfr, and will support your phone for the life of your contract. Any updates within the 18 month timeframe will support your hardware. After that, we will not guarantee backward compatibility.
Nothing in software development is as arbitrary as you are making it out to be. Even if that time frame truly is arbitrary, their are at least caveats involved which MS isn't disclosing, most importantly the cut off point.
- does that really matter?
I don't know if it matters. How do you know it doesn't without understanding why they are doing it? After all, it is a novelty in the companies 30 year history.
I don't understand how your second point is related to the question.
- WP7 phones did not have hardware that supported WP8 architecture. This was covered by many articles when WP8 was released.
That was covered only in the forums, where it was repeated over and over again until it became accepted WP lore. It was also repeated by one or two of the shoddier tech sites, meaning those that have absolutely no technical credibility whatsoever, like CNet. Nowhere else. Microsoft themselves never stated any such thing, nor did any of the tech journalists that actually had an understanding of the issues.
Microsoft had the entire NT kernel running on pre-WP7 generation ARM hardware, which basically proves that the whole hardware argument is BS. It is safe to say hardware limitations were most definitely not an issue.