MS sold 4.2 million WPs since october?

[Gergolos]

Found this interesting news today:

Facebook data suggests Microsoft has sold 4.2 million Windows Phone devices since October | WinSource

"Microsoft has been pretty tight-lipped about the sales of Windows Phone 8 so far, but one of their closest partners could betray their sales numbers for them. Nearly 627,000 monthly active users of the built-in Facebook app have joined the ecosystem since October 1st. To put that into perspective, less than 150,000 were added by the 15th of December of last year.

The Next Web discovered that a ratio of around 6.7 handsets were sold per active user that uses the Windows Phone Facebook application. Accounting for this, this puts Windows Phone at having sold some 4.2 million handsets since the start of the quarter this year. If this is the case, then no wonder Nokia and HTC are sitting pretty, especially if they?re moving phones equally well.

If these numbers continue at this rate, we could be seeing a 10 million plus quarter for Windows Phone."

(I hope this was not posted by someone else. If so: Am really sorry please remove my thread in that case.)

 

[justop26]

Great find! Impressive numbers if true..

 

[Gergolos]

Yeah. The numbers really do sound nice.

 

[ugadawg239]

I hope so.

 

[Oliver Newell]

People are getting a bit sick of Apple corruptness in my opinion, charging ?500 for a phone that they make for ?80, and shoving expensive, awful and false advertising down Joe publics throat. Microsoft as it seam is on the rise again. Windows 8 WILL catch on, we said the same thing with windows 7 and look how that turned out, same thing for windows phone.

 

[a5cent]

That's only half the story, as WP devices are now also being sold in China and those devices don't register on Facebook.

Although 4 million devices in one month sounds like a lot, it isn't. Android registers over a million activations per day, on average.

Also, the title is somewhat strange, as Microsoft doesn't sell WP devices, only WP licenses.

 

[brmiller1976]

A lot of the Android "activations" are double or even triple-counting.

For instance, if you buy a Galaxy S II, then update to an S III, your new S III is a "new activation," but Google continues to count your now-unused S II as "part of the userbase," even though it's in a drawer.

And if, like many Android users, you get a faulty device and a swapout, each new device is a "new activation."

That's not to say that Microsoft is anywhere close to Google's numbers of activations, but rather to point out that Google's numbers are padded to make the market look larger. What they never report are actual concrete sales numbers -- something that Apple does, to their credit.

 

[snowmutt]

Let's not miss the forest for all the trees: Regardless of actual numbers, sales growth is the main thing here. WP 7 may not have been a flop, but it was a huge disappointment. It did not have the functions or support it needed to make a serious run at RIM for #3. Heck, most of it's existence Windows Mobile and Symbian still out sold it. If these numbers are accurate, or even close, then the next step will have been achieved: respectablitiy and a strong feeling of momentum.

WP still has the disadvantage of trying to build a fan base. RIM, Apple, and Google already have that. Being able to flirt with say 8% of total smartphone sales is a huge step for our favorite OS. I feel the 2nd generation of WP8's are almost more important then this first: It is VITAL that hardware improvements and software updates keep WP moving upwards.

 

[a5cent]

I didn't say the numbers were bad. I'm just putting them in perspective. Anyway, I agree, WP8 is definitely making headway, yet we still have a long way to go.

The activation numbers for both WP and Android are extremely inaccurate. I suspect those reporting WP numbers based on facebook statistics don't understand what they are reporting. As far as I can tell they aren't counting WP7 users that upgraded to WP8 handsets. They are only counting new WP users. As previously mentioned, they also aren't counting sales in China, which Android is. I understand that Androids numbers are fudged, but the difference is so large that the fudging isn't of much importance ;-)

I have a somewhat different opinion of what Microsoft should be working on (forget readying the OS for more powerful SoC's and focus every last engineer on getting OS bugs fixed and features out), but that is a topic for another time and thread.

Good night and good luck!

 

[TaliZorah]

And theres plenty of us (i know 4) that dont use facebook at all but have a WP8. So you could easily say its more.

 

[AccentAE86]

And theres plenty of us (i know 4) that dont use facebook at all but have a WP8. So you could easily say its more.

and then there is also the people like me who never open the Facebook app. Social is so well integrated that I never actually open the Facebook app. I just browse the People hub. Unless THAT'S what they are referring to when they say "built in Facebook app" but the fact that they say "app" makes me thing they are not talking about the facebook integration in the people hub.

 

[brmiller1976]

The lack of clarity around this is really Microsoft's fault. They could announce the WP sales numbers, rather than saying "sales are 300% higher" or "never been better" or other sleight of hand.

 

[a5cent]

@TaliZorah
@AccentAE86
You are both included in those numbers, whether you use facebook or not is irrelevant. It's magic... ;-)

Magic = average proportional relationship between WP facebook users and non-users.

 

[Coolknight1968]

No they can not do that. Because of legal reasons, any such statements have to be based on data used in accounting, which is not available as shortly after the launch.

 

[brmiller1976]

That's only true if it is Microsoft or a WP OEM announcing sales numbers.

All this dancing around the bush with "four times higher sales" and "we estimate X million based on Facebook activations" is fluff.

Microsoft should just publish the damn number, and then announce their plans to make it higher. In fact, it should report monthly sales.

 

[mrmdj31675]

Brmiller1976, we find ourselves in a major agreement. I want to know how many units for each device offered in the US have been sold, which means how many Lumia 920, Lumia 922, 8X, and Ativ Oddysey the carriers have sold, especially how well the undercoded and underencrypted CDMA devices have sold.

Apple can provide numbers, as well as RIM when it comes to actual devices. The OEMs for android try to stay on that same path, but Microsoft has never revealed direct sales figures on the several WP devices offered, especially for the US market which has been awful for them being their home market.

I won't get on details why because I have already stressed the reasons too many times.

 

[Laura Knotek]

If MS says anything it would be during the January 24, 2013 earnings conference call.

 

[based_graham]

It's not going to be the greatest but hey its all about small stepping stones. You release a new product portfolio and it does 4 times more than your previous year that's a good sign so what to do next? Release another batch and try getting 8x the sales.

Sales numbers to me is meh as long as there is some sort of improvement which we are seeing. It is a tough battlefield but MS can't afford to loose this one and next year its about to get 4x harder.

 

[mrmdj31675]

They are selling most of that increase in Europe, but in the US, they have only sold one percent more compared to last year and that spells trouble when having their top device as a GSM exclusive on a CDMA 2000 country. Sure, three devices on Verizon, but tell me another reason why no other CDMA carrier will touch WP8 devices besides the coding/encryption issue and lackadaisical sale figures for WP7.

Go ahead and blame Sprint (and the 512bit encryption nearly all CDMA carriers in the US require for their networks), you'll be blaming the wrong people rather than point out the obvious fact that Team Windows Phone hates CDMA and rather have WP as a GSM only platform.

 

[brmiller1976]

It would be lovely to have a Sprint device, but Sprint has chosen to miss the wave. Most people who want WP have likely left Sprint for one of the others already.