I'm not interested in debating whether or not existing devices will be upgraded to WP8 or not. That is being done to death in plenty of other discussion threads. I'm writing this based on the possibility that there is no upgrade. My biggest concern is what happens to apps if they don't? Think about it, almost every new PC will be coming with Windows 8, to say nothing of the likely hordes of Win8 tablets and upgrades to existing PCs. Taken all together that is a huge potential user base, one likely to exceed the total of all iOS devices relatively quickly. Clearly a lot of developers, if not most, will be developing Win8 Metro apps.
We also know that, if not already compatible, most of those apps will be easily ported over to WP8 so clearly there is going to be a rather large ecosystem. WP7 apps will be compatible with WP8 but not necessarily the other way around. So where does that leave us? How many developers do you think will still develop for WP7 when they can develop for Win8 and WP8 more or less at the same time? Well, how many developers have continued developing for WM 6.5? Very very few. Unless MS releases some sort of app compatibility update for WP7.5, I think we're going to be completely screwed. Sure, we'll have the 100,000 or so existing apps but most of them will get very few updates. All of the cool new apps? We'll never see them at all. Sure, WP7 will be officially supported by MS for several more years. Doesn't mean it will be supported by developers though or that we will see any new features. It just means that we will get critical security updates and the like.
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe we will all see WP8. Maybe MS will release some sort of mandatory update (i.e. one that the carriers will not be able to block, like Mango) to at least provide some app compatibility with the new apps. If not then we're all going to be well and truly screwed over. I truly hope I'm wrong, I really do, but I'm afraid I'm not.
We also know that, if not already compatible, most of those apps will be easily ported over to WP8 so clearly there is going to be a rather large ecosystem. WP7 apps will be compatible with WP8 but not necessarily the other way around. So where does that leave us? How many developers do you think will still develop for WP7 when they can develop for Win8 and WP8 more or less at the same time? Well, how many developers have continued developing for WM 6.5? Very very few. Unless MS releases some sort of app compatibility update for WP7.5, I think we're going to be completely screwed. Sure, we'll have the 100,000 or so existing apps but most of them will get very few updates. All of the cool new apps? We'll never see them at all. Sure, WP7 will be officially supported by MS for several more years. Doesn't mean it will be supported by developers though or that we will see any new features. It just means that we will get critical security updates and the like.
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe we will all see WP8. Maybe MS will release some sort of mandatory update (i.e. one that the carriers will not be able to block, like Mango) to at least provide some app compatibility with the new apps. If not then we're all going to be well and truly screwed over. I truly hope I'm wrong, I really do, but I'm afraid I'm not.