Surface Phone : When? The Answer

[Drael646464]

really?? ok. next



hm. good analysis. actually you did as much good as an economist. unfortunately , I have a short answer for that analysis. PCs are on the decline. most of the people nowadays depend on smartphones. they just need light computing. so decling pc sales means less people are buying pcs and spending time on it. Microsoft making money from hardware? this year surface revune has gone down 26%. history says Microsoft made its money from windows. Cloud & Xbox business may take them long. but how long? PCs may survive for the next 10 or 20 years? ( Apple has already sailed their Mac business. ) after then? where companies like Adobe or other PC software vendors will be?



Microsoft paid developers $100 for each app in 2013. but that didn't change their fortune. a quick wild google search should reveal more info.


thank you very much. you can't predict the future without observing current affairs. all the analogy you did , won't stand in the future. X company may earn $100000 dollars now
. but you have to think what will happen to the X company when they won't have the platform from where they earn!!

well. thank u again for all the hardwork & analysis.

So your response is basically "Nooo! Mobilez is teh future!". I'm starting to wonder if you are a troll!

Last quarter this year PC desktop sales had growth, laptops still have had growth for many years, gaming rigs have still had strong growth, and 1 in 5 people globally own a PC. PC is the most popular gaming platform by a significant margin.

Mobile is only statistically "replacing PCs" in poor areas like india, and the ghetto where folks can't afford both. This is what the stats tell us - people in the first world, who aren't dirt poor, have not only phones and PCs, but consoles, tablets etc. We are swimming in a sea of devices that do different things. Family homes have ridiculous numbers of devices.

AND Mobile growth is slowing. It was nearly 0 one quarter last year, and a mere 2 percent or something this year. Every economic prediction that exists, agrees that smartphone sales will actually go into negative growth, and the market will shrink, as adoption ends, device turn over slows, and lust for premium devices diminishes. That, basically, that's it, its done. Apart from emerging markets, like Africa and india, that's as far as it goes, and it actually falls back from here.

And their are many sound economic and cultural reasons for this, but I don't want to waste much of my time here. But here's an easter egg for that = look at how much money samsung and apple both just spent this year on advertising specifically in emerging markets like india....it's a huge amount of money. Why? The party is winding up everywhere else.

People aren't replacing their business laptops, their creative studios, their gaming rigs or even their home personal desktops with mobile devices. That's misunderstanding of how people use their devices.

People use mobile, for casual tasks. Quickly checking facebook. A bus stop game. Finding a GPS route. Casual, quick, mobile. Shallow.

They use their PCs for very different things, in depth research, a full desktop game, writing music, buying something, a proper browser session, a skype chat, media collections and so on.

Engaged. In depth.

Even basic uses favour the quality of software, the input methods and the vastly superior screen output of desktop machines - browser software is better, video software is better, music software is better.

It's not even close to the same sort of experience.

Which is why statistically people buy things more on a desktop, or a tablet, than they do on a phone - nobody wants to look at new clothes or something on their tiny five inch screen, whilst fumbling the credit card numbers through on their touch keyboard.

Its why statistically virtually nobody streams on their phone. It goes Pc > laptop > tablet > phone. Same kind of order as buying things goes.

It's why gaming is absolutely more popular on PCs. Why all the money goes to PC software companies, and the amount even the biggest mobile games in the world make, is only a portion of a desktop companies total years take.

These are the facts. Use patterns on PC and mobile are worlds apart. This is predicting the future based on current events.

These are matters I follow very closely because I have a _mobile_ based business, I have worked in IT, and markets and useage patterns for various devices are important to me.

Phones are entering post-adoption phase in most markets, like the PC did years ago. The touch keyboard is not a replacement for a real physical keyboard. A five inch screen is not a replacement for a forty inch monitor. Android apps are not a replacement for full desktop software.

This is what market analysts agree on, generally speaking these devices (tablets, phones, desktop, console, tv box, car computer, laptop) are adjuncts. They co-exist, side by side. They all do slightly different jobs. They are, to use a popular word "an ecosystem". And as more types of devices emerge, which they will - VR, AR, folding tablets, other form factors, voice controlled devices, AI - they will diversify even more.

What's happening isn't a sudden unification of the PC, into a tiny glass slab. Historically speaking, its the diversification of the computer, from mainframe, into personal computer, console, IoT, HMD, mobile, tablet, notebook etc etc. And more and more as we move into the 'internet of things'. The PC isn't being replaced, its growing a family.

It's not getting more uniform/the same. Its getting more different/diverse.

And actually that's part of why device turnover for phones is slowing - so that people can spend money on upgrading other devices and appliances. And this would explain why last quarter had an upturn in desktop sales - people decided now, to replace their aging PCs, instead of spending money on a new phone again. Which clearly shows, PCs are still important to the average, everyday consumer.

This is all the time I am going to spend on this.

You have absolutely no background knowledge in this.

You are speaking from a place of ignorance, with an attitude of superiority. You are ill informed. That's all there is to it.

On a less, jezz this is crazy level - on a more personal level - I hope you have a good evening. Just because you are not an expert, but act like you know it all (I'm not an expert either), does not mean I dislike you. Only the stuff coming out of your....probably virtual keyboard (hence all the typos and hard to follow english!)

Genuinely, don't take my thrashing of your ideas personally. It's very common for people with no background or knowledge about something to assume they know everything. There's actually a scientific name for it. I probably do it heaps (and I also don't know everything, I'm not an expert here either, just a small business owner with an interest in following trends)

 

[Drael646464]

Amongst mobile phone enthusiasts, for some reason, your position is not totally uncommon. There is probably a small bubble of people that encourage this type of thinking, like online android communities.
It's not unusual for a small amount of knowledge to encourage ideas which are often inaccurate. Phones = more popular, PC's not quite as much globally = phones only 4eva!

Even a simple graph over time, will show that PCs went through the same thing (and still laptops) and that smartphones are slowing. Every piece of technology has been through a similar thing. But it can be easy to draw conclusions from vague data, and partial information.

A little like teenagers think they know everything, and are the first to discover things that everyone else is already aware of.

Add a little enthusiasm for some new thing (well new-ish. Kinda), and you have a situation where everything is overblown and out of proportion. This will happen. And that! and wow, this great thing forever....

Heck, there are aged people on the news, who still act like apps are some act of magic. Lol. when really they are just quite simple software.

I remember thinking that about the first digitized music. The first badly coded song. lol.

People probably felt that way about the first washing machines, and the first vacuum cleaners (hence why hoover became famous). Flatscreens went through that too. PCs - they were such a novelty.

Awe and wonder is a grand thing in a way, and a weird thing in another.

But it wears off. It always wears off. Then the thing, is just a thing. It's kinda meh.

 

[imsai0]

I'm starting to wonder if you are a troll!

You have absolutely no background knowledge in this.

You are speaking from a place of ignorance, with an attitude of superiority. You are ill informed. That's all there is to it.

On a less, jezz this is crazy level - on a more personal level - I hope you have a good evening. Just because you are not an expert, but act like you know it all (I'm not an expert either), does not mean I dislike you. Only the stuff coming out of your

It's very common for people with no background or knowledge about something to assume they know everything. There's actually a scientific name for it. I probably do it heaps (and I also don't know everything, I'm not an expert here either, just a small business owner with an interest in following trends)



Amongst mobile phone enthusiasts, for some reason, your position is not totally uncommon. There is probably a small bubble of people that encourage this type of thinking.

A little like teenagers think they know everything, and are the first to discover things that everyone else is already aware of.

I was waiting for this kind of comment. you are bascially replying all the comments. writing big and lot of useless data. also trying to be a jack of all traders. I feel sorry for you. this type of writing doesn't show anything but your ill attitude. people generally tends to take the dirty insulting path when they have no counter points.

if u had that kind of background knowledge, you couldnot take the insulting path rather show counter points. Your Jack of All traders attitude shows your immaturity. I don't mind. I have to deal like u, every day.

Nonetheless don't take my trashing comments personally. It's just your Jack of all trader attitude that needs to be corrected. I also encourage you not to take the dirty way of insulting and to talk within the subject.

 

[anon(50597)]

This is far from correct.

Actually MSFT position is more stable than apple or google. Both of those companies get 90-85 percent plus of their income from one revenue stream. Should that revenue stream (iPhone for apple, or advertising on search for google), be threatened or replaced by other products, their whole business model and company direction will need desperate re-evaluation.

MSFT by contrast has a diverse portfolio of income. They make money from xbox, from game houses, from azure, from services, from hardware, from the OS, cloud storage - their income is quite evenly distributed.

There is actually more certainty in MSFTs future, economically, as much money and liquid income as the other guys have, if that one domino falls over, or loses momentum, its question mark time.

This is absolutely true, and one of the reasons they are able to step back from mobile while attempting to develop the next big thing (whether that comes or not).

 

[Drael646464]

I was waiting for this kind of comment. you are bascially replying all the comments. writing big and lot of useless data. also trying to be a jack of all traders. I feel sorry for you. this type of writing doesn't show anything but your ill attitude. people generally tends to take the dirty insulting path when they have no counter points.

if u had that kind of background knowledge, you couldnot take the insulting path rather show counter points. Your Jack of All traders attitude shows your immaturity. I don't mind. I have to deal like u, every day.

Nonetheless don't take my trashing comments personally. It's just your Jack of all trader attitude that needs to be corrected. I also encourage you not to take the dirty way of insulting and to talk within the subject.

When in this thread, have you demonstrated an ability to listen, change your mind, or be amiable to facts or logical arguments?

You are not here to listen, you are hear to talk. You have opinions, that you treat as objective facts. You respond to other people argumentatively, and without social grace.

That's not interesting to me. And it's not an attitude I respect. My life motto is basically: You only command the respect you offer others. I have no respect for the way you have conducted yourself in this thread. And so I treated you accordingly.

You may notice, I started off, a lot more polite than you did. I gave you more than enough opportunity to conduct yourself well. You took that rope and hanged yourself. Read back the thread, maybe it'll give you some insight.

This isn't a facebook comments section, or 4chan. People here generally even in bitter disagreement don't take things as low as you seem to want to.

 

[Drael646464]

This is absolutely true, and one of the reasons they are able to step back from mobile while attempting to develop the next big thing (whether that comes or not).

Well I am completely convinced there is a "something next", or rather 'somethings next' on its way, in mobile and otherwise. Whether it will be big or someone else will win out.....that's a big question mark.

MSFT, as a company that's 'seen it happen', see things grow, change, I see that and I have a sort of respect for it.

As a tech company, they are a little like an older man or woman. Someone who's "been around'. That sense of history might also lend one to a bigger picture perspective. A sense that "now" is just one of many changes and phases technology will go through.

 

[anon(50597)]

Well I am completely convinced there is a "something next", or rather 'somethings next' on its way, in mobile and otherwise. Whether it will be big or someone else will win out.....that's a big question mark.

MSFT, as a company that's 'seen it happen', see things grow, change, I see that and I have a sort of respect for it.

As a tech company, they are a little like an older man or woman. Someone who's "been around'. That sense of history might also lend one to a bigger picture perspective. A sense that "now" is just one of many changes and phases technology will go through.

I think where people get off track is they equate what's big today with success. So they must be big in mobile or they are a failure, which isn't true. That comes from an egocentric viewpoint, which I understand is human nature. I want a mobile device from MS, either they give me one, and compete on that front with Apple and Google, or .... fill in the blank. Emotions take over and conversations go off track.

I am currently using an iPhone SE as my daily device because it fits my needs best. I still have my Idol 4s to keep up with updates and see where this ship sails, but it fell behind as a daily driver so I had to change. I'm not upset, just keeping in touch and hoping this all works out.

Have a great weekend everyone.

 

[techiez]

ms will win? how? without a platform ?



what? why u need a pc when u have a pc in ur hand? have u eever heard about Windows on ARM? when unfolded, the SP will be at least 10" device. (5"*2)




Again you are repeating the same thing. why u need keyboard? why u need continuum? Cshell horrible? where? have u ever tried it? arguing without valid point is useless

whoa whoa, you are almost bordering on delusions(sorry but seems like that to me)
I dont think you have any experience with any kind of corporate/enterprise, technology stuff.
Or are you just HIGH.

what? why u need a pc when u have a pc in ur hand? have u eever heard about Windows on ARM? when unfolded, the SP will be at least 10" device. (5"*2)

I know its not a magic wand, I know what PCs are used for and these fantasy imaginary devices are not replacing it.

why u need keyboard? why u need continuum?

try explaining how cshell would make a device a fullblown pc that wud just replace a laptop, I want hear your use cases. and then we can talk.

really? windows is no longer their cash cow. just office & cloud won't gonna save the company in the long run.

You think MS earns from its OS? No, its office, it always has been.Windows is its launching pad but Azure Cloud etc are its missiles which wins battles for MS.

 

[fatclue_98]

Soft? okay. remove windows from Microsoft's history and then imagine Microsoft!! I might be delusional. but mobiles are where developers are!!

Developers are nothing without a desktop to create their apps. Don't kid yourself into thinking that desktop is going anywhere. Mobile is for consumption, desktop is for production.

 

[Drael646464]

You think MS earns from its OS? No, its office, it always has been.Windows is its launching pad but Azure Cloud etc are its missiles which wins battles for MS.

techaltar made a pretty good case as to why MSFT might end up giving out window s for free. He is usually a little rambly, but its on point.

As far as the OS goes, MSFT has always made more money from services and software. Now there's also target ads like google, and like apple, store purchases.

With those services expanding, for casual home users, windows s could easily become the solution, once there's enough action on the UWP front.

They have already given away how many copies of windows 10, via the free upgrade.

Could also have some neat little tiny 'brick" solutions with windows s (on arm), all in one devices for average folk, or all in one monitors, with an external HDD or wifi HD for media.

Obvs pro would remain for prosumers, gamers, professionals and the like.

A free OS might help push UWP and other development. Its not MSFTs bottom line as we know.

I mean once you buy windows 10, you get it for life, with rolling updates. That's not a profit centre.

When other people spoke of S replacing home I didn't know what to think. But I think in time it makes sense. Probably wouldn't need much more in the store, and it would make the store thrive.

 

[imsai0]

You are not here to listen, you are hear to talk. You have opinions, that you treat as objective facts. You respond to other people argumentatively, and without social grace.

Please show me where I argued without social grace? I argued with my points. if u disagree, don't blame me

That's not interesting to me. And it's not an attitude I respect. My life motto is basically: You only command the respect you offer others. I have no respect for the way you have conducted yourself in this thread. And so I treated you accordingly.

the way you started replying every comments with useless big data, it showed your genisusnes.Basically you tried to establish your opinion everywhere. and that kind of attitude doesn't interest me at all. my attitude always has been to create a helpful arguments, not to insult people. sometimes I disagree with people bcoz I have my points. If u don't agree with me, it's ur personal choice

You may notice, I started off, a lot more polite than you did. I gave you more than enough opportunity to conduct yourself well. You took that rope and hanged yourself. Read back the thread, maybe it'll give you some insight..

Please show me where I was impolite? I may have disagreement in arguments. after all, that's what arguments is. you were the first who started attacking me personally and I have nicely quoted your insulting comments. please take a look at my previous comments.

Insulting someone isn't a way of helpful arguments. I just don't waana to get in personal arguments and insulting what you started off.

I also won't reply ur comments further. Mobile isn't the future. You win. Good bye

 

[Drael646464]

Please show me where I argued without social grace? I argued with my points. if u disagree, don't blame me



the way you started replying every comments with useless big data, it showed your genisusnes.Basically you tried to establish your opinion everywhere. and that kind of attitude doesn't interest me at all. my attitude always has been to create a helpful arguments, not to insult people. sometimes I disagree with people bcoz I have my points. If u don't agree with me, it's ur personal choice



Please show me where I was impolite? I may have disagreement in arguments. after all, that's what arguments is. you were the first who started attacking me personally and I have nicely quoted your insulting comments. please take a look at my previous comments.

Insulting someone isn't a way of helpful arguments. I just don't waana to get in personal arguments and insulting what you started off.

I also won't reply ur comments further. Mobile isn't the future. You win. Good bye

Well this is fairly redundant as replies go, but why not.

So, shouting. Exclaimation marks all the time. Shouting continuously in a conversation is perceived as rude, at least in the west. People take a quiet tone to allow the other person to speak, and keep the mood calm.

And, an argument is making a case with points. What you have been doing, is contradiction. Just stating an opinion. An argument runs something like X is true because of Y and Z. (Using logic, or evidence).

An opinion usually goes something like "Well I think that". Or "Such and such, IMO". "Or I don't think".

You were stating it very strongly as if it were fact. like "the sky is blue", only in this case "the PC is dead" "Mobile is taking over" "Surface phone folding windows on arm is ten inches". Etc.

That is also generally regarded as rude. People tend to soften their opinions with IMO, or other language to suggest, that its an opinion, and the speaker is not the all seeing knower of all truth, or soothsayer of the future. This allows other people to have opinions too.

When people state things as truth, they usually either qualify with evidence or logic, or its something everyone pretty much agrees upon. They generally don't shout their opinions, as facts in response to other peoples opinions.

There is also usually some sense in which people try to recognise they are talking to a person, not an idea.

You seem to have generally not done this, but responded to any opinion or piece of information you disagreed with, with launching into contradicting "opinions clothed as facts". I understand that sometimes this is a habit online, but its not the reality.

Lastly, you've been taking a personal tone that's a bit like a high school kid, the moment people started disagreeing with you. Some examples:

Seeing some of ur invalid arguments, I have a bad feeling for u. . u either don't wanna see Microsoft in the long run or u r just a google nerd.

really?? ok. next

all the comments. writing big and lot of useless data

There's obviously more.

Perhaps its based on the way your were raised to interact with people, or you are still young. Maybe you got defensive of your beleifs.

But there are things you are doing in this thread, that are going to rub up against people the wrong way.

I hope this "useless data" is not entirely useless to you, seeing as you did ask me for examples. I think I have explained some elements of this pretty well?

BTW, people don't speak the way they naturally speak, to impress others. Most people don't "put on an air", unless its a specific social situation like work, or a dinner.

If I type long things, and use certain words, this is me trying to be precise, and clear in my thinking - and this is the way I think.

I've noticed some people occasionally find that intimidating, or wordy, but that perception is on their end, and not universal to everyone. I have always loved words, and always loved to think.

Some people like thoughtful content. Some people have more time to read such things. And on forums, over time, people have also commented the same.
Using more words, and more precise words, does actually let you communicate more, whether a person has the inclination to delve into that or not.

People are different, and that's okay.

Some people will say "that's a novel, yuck" or "you are trying to sound impressive", yet others will say "that was interesting" or "I like the way you put that".

It's not my responsibility to tailor the way I naturally speak in a public forum to those with shorter attention spans, less time, or people who are intimidated by my wildly mis-spelled vocabulary. I'm not smart, everyone is a novice at most things.

That's in the eye of the beholder, and as I said before, its not universal, its a singular perception.

The world gave me a keyboard, and atm way too much time, and so I'm going to occasionally both XD

We all have our turn to speak, and if you don't want to read it, that's okay too.

I hope this has been helpful in some way.

 

[mattiasnyc]

Some people can't be reasoned with.

 

[mattiasnyc]

why u need a pc when u have a pc in ur hand? have u eever heard about Windows on ARM? when unfolded, the SP will be at least 10" device. (5"*2)

People who buy consoles or PC's for gaming want them for their superior performance relative to a small device. As CPUs and GPUs get more powerful developers create more satisfying but demanding software. This new more demanding software requires new powerful hardware.

For us content producers it's the same thing. We need better tools to do our job. While I look forward to doing tiny changes to for example a TV show on a handheld, I will never be able to work exclusively or extensively on one, exactly because the computational power of the device is behind that of PCs.

So this demand for higher end computing is there for content producers of TV, internet content, film, games etc, as well as a lot of consumers. And this of course then doesn't even touch on all the other high-end situations in which PCs are use, like in the scientific field, the medical field, in r&d in corporations, in finance etc......

The market share for Windows as an OS might be below that of Android, but people use Android apps and Win apps very differently. And speaking of, if MS gets people to buy cloud services tied to their software then it won't matter if it's running on Windows or on Android. What matters is that people pay MS for the service.

Saying that MS is in some sort of trouble with the tremendous success it's had and still has, and with the assets it has, is just completely clueless.

 

[imsai0]

I dont think you have any experience with any kind of corporate/enterprise, technology stuff.
Or are you just HIGH.

I don't have. so u have the experience with some kind of corporate/enterprise, right?

try explaining how cshell would make a device a fullblown pc that wud just replace a laptop.

You are again asking same question. Try a google search first.

You think MS earns from its OS? No, its office, it always has been.Windows is its launching pad but Azure Cloud etc are its missiles which wins battles for MS.

Yes. I do think. please re read my previous coments. I said ms history.
from 1983 to 2006, Microsoft made money in this time and that is off course by windows. in these time, show me where azure the missile is??

Please try to have a valid point before asking / arguing

 

[Drael646464]

Well that was a wasted effort.

 

[imsai0]

there's a thing/rule in the world...

if u can't win an argument with honest way, you must play dirty. try to attack the person personally. try to teach him behaviour and show him you wisdom
...this way you can win

bull****s tricks.

 

[imsai0]

I have been arguing bcoz I have my strong points, bcoz I don't rely on playing dirty by insulting people... I will show one of my strong points here. Just take a look in this video & try to understand why surface phone argument is still going..

https://mspoweruser.com/microsoft-reportedly-working-mobile-like-arm-device/

 

[anon(50597)]

Time to hang it up up and move on with something constructive, don't you think?

 

[imsai0]

Time to hang it up up and move on with something constructive, don't you think?

yess.

I am getting tired. but u may check the mspoweruser.com website article.. time to move on