The High End Conspiracy

[jlzimmerman]

There is little (if any) money to make in the Windows Phone business. Why would a business throw millions into developing & marketing a phone that less than 1% (considering most of WP market is low range) of the world would buy? The only reason HTC gave us a "High End" device is because it's the same hardware as it's Android flagship --- and this only happened because Microsoft modified its hardware requirements to persuade them to do so (on-screen buttons & no more required physical camera button).

It's only logical that they get in on the low-end range...the only place Microsoft has seen success.

1% (it's actually more like 3%) of the worldwide market share is still a **** load of phones. But I understand what you're getting at, and while there is more money and marketshare to be had on the low end, none of those phones make headlines and turn heads like a flagship phone.

And how much more money does an OEM spend if there is already an Android version of that phone already in circulation? I'm surprised that HTC (and to some extent Samsung with the Ativ S) is the only one who has done it. I don't see it being a financial burden. With that said, at least we have some proof of what many of us thought before when comparing OS's on the same hardware:

Acer Executive Says Windows Phone Runs Better On The Same Hardware Than Android - WMPoweruser

 

[Flat Tire]

And how much more money does an OEM spend if there is already an Android version of that phone already in circulation? I'm surprised that HTC (and to some extent Samsung with the Ativ S) is the only one who has done it. I don't see it being a financial burden. With that said, at least we have some proof of what many of us thought before when comparing OS's on the same hardware:

Acer exec also says:

"Finally, the cost of opportunity is low. We wouldn?t have made a competitor to a Lumia 930 device because of the cost of all the R&D. The one limitation of Windows Phone is it has to run on Qualcomm. Now we have the Z220 running on the Qualcomm platform. We just take it, make a few changes, tweak the RAM and make it more affordable, and then you have it."

 

[TheCudder]

1% (it's actually more like 3%) of the worldwide market share is still a **** load of phones. But I understand what you're getting at, and while there is more money and marketshare to be had on the low end, none of those phones make headlines and turn heads like a flagship phone.

And how much more money does an OEM spend if there is already an Android version of that phone already in circulation? I'm surprised that HTC (and to some extent Samsung with the Ativ S) is the only one who has done it. I don't see it being a financial burden. With that said, at least we have some proof of what many of us thought before when comparing OS's on the same hardware:

Acer Executive Says Windows Phone Runs Better On The Same Hardware Than Android - WMPoweruser

I know WP has about 3% of the market share, but of that 3%, it's safe to assume that no more than 1% of that is looking to purchase a high end WP device. And you don't have to turn heads to sell a low-end device, that's the beauty of it --- any why OEM's are only jumping into that area. These phones are being purchased by those who are looking for a cheap device that isn't a lag fest.

As for the Acer comment/article you linked to, that's no secret. Microsoft is seeing success on the low end because of that reason. This is why Google has developed Android One (a lightweight version) to try and stop losing market on that end.

 

[Wevenhuis]

I understand the point you are trying to make, but the statement that flagships are niche devices is too extreme. If you are using that logic then smartphones in general are niche devices. How can the iPhone be a niche product when its selling 100x more than any budget smartphone?

I wouldn't know. I can only guess because the iPhone....doesn't have....flagships? Perhaps a question of definition?

 

[realwarder]

I'm going to completely disagree in one way: "No high end phones exist.."

I don't think anyone would say the iPhone is not High End, and yet when you look at an iPhone 6 spec, it is often worse than those of the Lumia 930,1520 and HTC M8 and Samsung ATIV SE.

Those are all Snapdragon 800 devices with a 2 GB RAM, good screens, high MP cameras, 4G etc.

Sure, we don't have a recent flagship, but the ones we have are top end specs.

 

[Darthbobcat]

Plus, for most OEM's, making high end Android phones isn't profitable either. Apple accounts for something like 81% of the profits in smartphones every year. Samsung makes up most, if not all, of the rest. Sony, LG, HTC, etc, are either unprofitable (especially poor Sony) or barely profitable making these Android devices, where they are theoretically addressing 80% of the market interested in buying an Android phone. The high end is theoretically a goldmine, but that makes it a shark tank. If you're testing the water (OEM's) or trying to build market share at all costs (Microsoft), it makes sense to do it with a lower end device.

 

[MarkusDindu]

Plus, for most OEM's, making high end Android phones isn't profitable either.

Yes, they are, but not by very much. HTC made millions last year, but this numbers are puny compared to Apple's. Microsoft is in the same boat with Windows Phone, they are losing money still today on these devices.

 

[Darthbobcat]

Yes, they are, but not by very much. HTC made millions last year, but this numbers are puny compared to Apple's. Microsoft is in the same boat with Windows Phone, they are losing money still today on these devices.

I recall that for 2013, HTC's total profit was something like 50,000,000. For the entire year. Huge for us, not exactly what they wanted to report to shareholders as their return on investment. I haven't looked into their financials recently, so things MAY have improved.

When I was thinking of unprofitability, I was thinking of Sony's huge Android writedown recently. Individual cases vary.

 

[MarkusDindu]

I recall that for 2013, HTC's total profit was something like 50,000,000. For the entire year. Huge for us, not exactly what they wanted to report to shareholders as their return on investment. I haven't looked into their financials recently, so things MAY have improved.


When I was thinking of unprofitability, I was thinking of Sony's huge Android writedown recently. Individual cases vary.

From what I understand, Sony has other products that are lumped in with their mobile phone division, and these products are failing badly, which in turn brings their mobile device profits down.

 

[fatclue_98]

Lest we forget that Samsung didn't do so well with their latest "flagship" Galaxy S5. All big volume sales revolved around the iPhone 6 & 6+ so it's easy to understand why Microsoft, or anyone else, would be gun-shy to release a high end phone anytime soon. If the most recent big ticket phones on WP8/8.1 didn't light the world on fire, why would any new device do better in light of the sales blitz of the iPhones? It makes perfect sense to wait until W10 is out until releasing a new upper echelon device. Anything else would just be more of the same.

 

[Praxius]

But there in lies the problem.

Apples tactic of selling their phones so well is their level of marketing.

Shove it in peoples faces often enough everywhere they turn, it won't matter if the phone is sub par with hardware specs like the iPhone 6.... People will buy it at a premium.

Make it look pretty, market how much you will love it and how all your friends will think you're cool to have one, and people will start to believe it.

The iPhone isn't revolutionary, certainly not in recent times, and hardware/feature-wise, the iPhone 6 barely competes with Lumia/Android phones that have been out for almost two years now..... But people suck them up like candy.

Why?

Because Apple makes huge release events like some rock concert, over hyping the things and place ads and commercials everywhere they can.

They make people believe it's really great and that they're worth the price they ask. Apple makes people believe their lies and over saturate with their marketing.

Microsoft could pull the same stunts as they surely have the money to do so.

Samsung could do the same thing... Acer could do the same thing.

Releasing a high end phone and making a profit can be done, one just needs to go about it right.

Samsung didn't do well with the S5 because people compared it to the S3 & S4 which did great.

MS has great high end phones but didn't market them well.... For any Windows Phone to do well in the high end, you need both the hardware and the marketing to back up that hardware.

The S5 was marketed well but the hardware and design was not what people were expecting.

 

[Yazen]

I couldn't think of a better title, but after thinking about what I am about to post and ask, it will no doubt lead to the title fitting the topic.

I have been reading and following and scouring all sorts of information & comments in all sorts of places:

? These Forums
? Windows Central's News Feed
? Internet Searches
? Cortana News Feeds Relating to "Windows."

And many others.

The topic of interest is the topic that interests many in here today.... High End Windows Phones, Specifically New High End Phones to come which will run Windows 10.

I am not focusing on Microsoft's Flagship or lack thereof, but the grand scheme of all High End Windows Phones of late.

.... Which there really isn't any to be had.

The most recent high ends would be the 1520 & the 930/Icon.

Now we all know that Microsoft has said that while they are working on a flagship, that flagship won't be brought forward until Windows 10 is finalized.

Ok... That's that.

But with all of the reported new OEM's to jump on board the Windows Banana Boat, why oh why hasn't a single one of these decided to tap into this wide open market of the high end Windows Phones?

In the past year, MS has helped 25 Hardware Partners release 31 Windows Phone Devices.

Source:
Microsoft Gathers Windows Phone Support

Out of those 31 devices, not a single one would be considered high end by any stretch of the term.

Being well aware that MS wants to flood the market and increase market share by unloading oodles and poodles of cheap phones.... And also being aware that logically many OEM's would want to play it safe by pumping out cheap low end phones... Wouldn't it also be logical that at least 1-2 of these 25 developers would attempt to launch just one high end phone into a completely vacant market where there is pretty much little to no competition?

Even if their one model was produced in low production numbers to test the waters, you would think there would be something by now.

Well are they waiting for Windows 10?

Why??

They're not waiting for Windows 10 with their low enders, so I can't see that being a big factor.

Now here's where we get to the conspiracy:

Is it at all possible that Microsoft has made direct deals with many of these OEM's to not release any high ends at all until they release their own Lumia Flagship?

Why would they do that you might ask.

Well I don't know, but there is a bit of logic where MS may not want to undermine the hype and excitement of this flagship they are working on.

I speculate that whatever this flagship is that they are working on, they are no doubt going to shove every single thing they can think of into it to the point of being ridiculously over the top and they don't want any other high ends to come out beforehand to possibly steal any of its thunder.

Also, by preventing other high ends from coming out and having over exposure of low/mid range phones for some time, when this flagship does come out, the public won't have anything recent to compare it to. Anything released by that stage will appear spectacular.

I also speculate that a few of these OEM's actually DO have some High Ends in development and being put together. My guess is that within a couple of weeks after the Flagship is launched, we will see a number of alternative high ends come from the likes of HTC, Acer, and maybe even Samsung.

It would be more than a blind sided punch to the back of the head to Android, iPhone and all the opinionated internet bloggers dead set in their fan boy iPhone/Android ways.... It would be a drop kick from the top turn buckle.

I wouldn't even guess or suggest that doing the above would make Windows Phone grab a gigantic chunk of the pie chart right away, but it would produce a continual flow of publicity, hype and buzz... Getting people to talk and take more interest and further continue the momentum.

Then again, it could all flop, become a huge failure and the sun will implode into a microscopic galactic belly button.

But by all of the actions, wording and such I have been seeing over the last few months, I would say Microsoft is going to put all their chips in (Windows 10), put on their best poker face, throw down their joker wild card (Flagship) and show their 2 Aces and 2 Kings (OEM High Ends... around four to choose from)

This will also allow the OEM's to ride along on that hype and help sell those high ends of theirs, using the W10 launch hype/buzz and the flagship buzz/hype. This would collectively benefit all of them at once, as well as MS's Flagship.

If I was a business kind of guy, this would be what I would have done.

What are your thoughts?

Do you think MS has a backroom deal going on with OEM's holding off on any High Ends?

Do you think OEM's just don't want to bother with high ends?

Or do you think there is something else going on?

Granted, all of this is speculation and assumptions based on educational guesses, but as a 930 owner waiting for W10 preview for my phone, I have the time to kill on speculations and theories.

Microsoft is thinking long term. They are using low end phones to sell their software platform to the emerging markets (where saturation is still quite low). Their market share long term will be higher this way.
At this point in time, flagships are not immediately important for the growth of Windows Phone OS.
Even for USA consumers, flagships are not necessarily the best way to sell the OS. As flagships are incredibly similar in performance and features, price and compatibility are plausible concerns.

You probably already know this already, but Google has recognized this and has developed a similar solution, Android One

 

[Yazen]

I'm going to completely disagree in one way: "No high end phones exist.."

I don't think anyone would say the iPhone is not High End, and yet when you look at an iPhone 6 spec, it is often worse than those of the Lumia 930,1520 and HTC M8 and Samsung ATIV SE.

Those are all Snapdragon 800 devices with a 2 GB RAM, good screens, high MP cameras, 4G etc.

Sure, we don't have a recent flagship, but the ones we have are top end specs.

iPhone 6 has better system performance than the Lumia 930.

• Screen is debatable (despite significant PPI difference) due to the screen technology, calibration, and color gamut superiority of the iPhone 6. 930 has an AMOLED panel and a higher resolution, but the higher resolution does not appear to compensate for AMOLEDs inability to produce a sharper image when compared to iPhone 6's IPS display. Overall a subjective matter, but 930 wins for me simply because of AMOLED trait blacks.
• Headphone out is markedly better on the iPhone 6.
• Camera/Video is debatable. Superior processing, automagical auto mode, and slow motion capture for the iPhone 6. Sharper lens, superior audio capturing, and better low light performance for the 930.
• Apps

I hate iPhones with a passion, but they do have merits worth considering.

 

[MarkusDindu]

iPhone 6 has better system performance than the Lumia 930.

• Screen is debatable (despite significant PPI difference) due to the screen technology, calibration, and color gamut superiority of the iPhone 6. 930 has an AMOLED panel and a higher resolution, but the higher resolution does not appear to compensate for AMOLEDs inability to produce a sharper image when compared to iPhone 6's IPS display. Overall a subjective matter, but 930 wins for me simply because of AMOLED trait blacks.
• Headphone out is markedly better on the iPhone 6.
• Camera/Video is debatable. Superior processing, automagical auto mode, and slow motion capture for the iPhone 6. Sharper lens, superior audio capturing, and better low light performance for the 930.
• Apps

I hate iPhones with a passion, but they do have merits worth considering.

Why aren't you using the 6 Plus in your comparison? The inclusion of a 1080p panel and OIS make it a much better device.

 

[Stefan Holder]

First off.. kudos to the OP.. these are the kind of posts I like to see on the forums.. I think there's some good logic to what you're saying here. It can make a lot of sense. or as others have stated..it mighty obvious that OEMs are not confident enough in the platform to go all chips in with a high end model. Even if they only do so with a low volume approach. The way Microsoft is shaping up Windows 10, their entire mobile strategy rests squarely the success of it.

 

[Blade800]

Are you seriously asking why other VERY UNKNOWN OEMs, (so unknown that I bet you wont find a single person on a street who would know what the hell is that company) arent doing HIGH-ENDS? Was my question clear? Or do I need to explain it? You own a brand called "Xexe" (random word). Literaly no one knows about that company and on top of that you decide to give it the OS with lowest market share and you would produce HIGH-END phones? REALLY? High end phones = Bigger expense. Unknown BRAND = low sales. Should I continue? It is better for you to start off with low-end phones because they are cheap and the expense is much cheaper.

Oh yeah and forgot to mention, 95% of those brands have such a ****ty names, literally unmemorizable.

 

[Grimlock]

I hate iPhones with a passion, but they do have merits worth considering.

Yeah a lot of people don't like to give Apple credit, and this is a big problem around here (and android forums). There are a many good aspects to the iPhone, and I'd be really excited if Lumias had the same SOC/GPU, battery life, thinness, etc.

I actually give props to Rubino when he did a camera test and was honest about the performance of the iPhone. Whether or not people give credit to the iPhone, it has been the most influential device in the market.

 

[Yazen]

Why aren't you using the 6 Plus in your comparison? The inclusion of a 1080p panel and OIS make it a much better device.

Different form factor
If we compare 1520 to iPhone 6 Plus this would require significantly different thinking. I could easily write a research paper on just the UI alone, kind of hard to post objectively on a forum thread lol.

(Keep in mind I have not spent a lot of time thinking these through, I put whatever immediately came to mind)

Spoiler

Between the 1520 and iPhone 6 Plus I personally would probably opt for the 1520.

1. Price is significantly lower (as far as I am aware)
2. WP8.1 UI guidelines translate well on large screens, (whereas I kind of find my thumbs fumbling on the iPhone 6 plus)
3. Better optics (where it matters for me), audio recording
4. Sunlight readability
5. Chassis design
6. Windows!

Why I would consider the iPhone 6 Plus:

1. Metal design
2. Automagical camera, slow motion capture
3. Excellent headphone out
4. Apple Pay
5. Screen calibration is very appealing. Has to be software because OnePlus One pretty much uses the same panel, and I find it a little too warm.
6. May bend in my pocket, but at least nobody has developed "ghost taps" from the device flexing. I'd rather have a slightly bent phone than an unusable one!

Why I use a smartphone:

1. Emails
2. Group Messaging
3. Visual Voicemail
4. Bluetooth audio

Why Windows Phone is a deal decider for me

1. Dark themes, easier on my eyes
2. Panoramic navigation, hate tapping icons. Can navigate apps without even looking at the screen
3. Lower menu bar, hate having to change my grip to reach a hamburger
4. Tiles, can get updated with a glance