Windows Mobile: Whats the Future Hold?

[George Ponder]

Okay... by the clock on my wall, it's 5pm EST and posts prior to this will be eligible for the software give-away. We'll send out notifications to the winners later tonight or tomorrow.

By all means feel free to keep this discussion going and give us your thoughts on what the future holds for Windows Mobile.

 

[Pony99CA]

What People Wanted

If Apple didn't give people what they wanted, then why is Microsoft scrambling like crazy to try and put the same type of functionality into WM6.5/WM7?

I think my earlier post answered that, but I'll reiterate. Apple gave people a cool device. I don't think a lot of iPhone buyers "wanted" a smart phone before the iPhone came out, but they bought one because it was so cool.

The difference is that I think people only wanted the iPhone after it came out and there was so much buzz about it. Apple gave people what Apple thought the people would want, not what the people actually did want at the time. It's a subtle distinction, perhaps, but an important one.

Microsoft is scrambling because they saw a huge increase in the demand for smart phones triggered by the iPhone. Yes, Microsoft rested on their laurels (after beating Palm) for too long, but they weren't the only company that did. Look at how many feature phones and smart phones came out looking like the iPhone -- the LG Voyager, the BlackBerry Storm, the Samsung Omnia, the HTC Diamond, etc.

Suspecting something means nothing in light of action, and Microsoft's actions in product development tell us everything we need to know. Their actions, or lack their of, with no effort of improving the interface over the last 5+ years, even with iPhone release, show they cared nothing about it or saw no need for it. They now know people like how the iPhone works (what the users were given) better, and they know they have to duplicate that feat in some manor.

Yes, Microsoft probably saw little need to improve usability or even to address the consumer market. (MS removed WiFi syncing from Windows Mobile, something consumers liked, because of security concerns by business.)

However, being reactive isn't necessarily the right way to go. Microsoft has never been able to duplicate Apple's cachet even though Windows beat the Mac OS. If Microsoft tries to "duplicate that feat", they'll just be viewed as a "me too" competitor. They need to do something different.

Microsoft has always played the "we'll give you want WE think you need" game. Now they are being forced to play by what the users want.

Funny, I always thought Apple played the "we'll give you want WE think you need" game, too. How many people wanted a windowing OS before the Mac, an MP3 player before the iPod or a smart phone before the iPhone.

Sure there were some who saw the promise of those devices, but the companies that created those innovations aren't the leaders today.

That being said, underneath, we all know WM is a much better product. As one other post stated, it's not as much about OS core as it is about the interface the user sees. While their may be some core differences, the only real difference I see between 6.1 and the 6.5 betas I'm using is just a UI update, and those aren't more then choice of a new Today screen. It still does what it does well, but if they want to attract the masses, they better give them what they want, and that's something like the iPhone. Truth hurts.

Except that's not the truth. WM 6.5 isn't just a visual refresh. It's adding online services, too, like My Phone and the WM app store. While those may work on other versions of the OS (I'm using My Phone now), they were created for WM 6.5. It's those kinds of services that may end up helping Windows Mobile more than the UI.

Steve

 

[Pony99CA]

iPhone Isn't Everywhere

With people basically locked to a device for 2 years (unless they're willing to pay full price, which most aren't), every iPhone sold today is a customer that won't even consider a Windows Mobile phone until 2011. With WM7 not coming out until who knows when in 2010, you're looking at 2012, perhaps late in 2012, before customers MS loses out on in the meantime will reconsider. This is the time when a lot of new customers are moving from basic phones to smart phones, and what's out there on WM right now is not likely to grab their attention the same way the iPhone will.

While every iPhone sold is probably 2 years lost to Microsoft, the problem may not be that bad.

First, the iPhone is still only on one U.S. carrier. That means that if somebody on another carrier wants the iPhone, they have to be willing to jump to AT&T, and I bet most of the people willing to do that already have done that.

Yes, there are rumors of Verizon getting an iPhone, but I've also heard that may actually be the Apple tablet, so who knows?

I think Android is a bigger threat in that regard than the iPhone -- if carriers other than T-Mobile introduce Android devices.

Second, not everybody may want a pure touch device. Many users insist on a QWERTY keyboard and Windows Mobile has more form factors that most other devices. (Symbian smart phones may also have lots of form factors, but they don't sell well in the U.S.)

Finally, the iPhone is still lacking the one big thing that many people want -- multitasking. That's a huge deal for busy people.

To see one person's perspective on why those are important, read my Using The iPhone For Work Is A Chore article.

Steve

 

[CSMR]

Great thread. Here are my thoughts:

-Biggest strength of WM has been Exchange. But that is not a consumer technology (some oddballs like us aside). MS needs good "cloud"-based free/cheap e-mail/contacts/calendaring natively supported by WM. (Stripped-down version of exchange or "Live" integration with Outlook mobile.)
-Must have a good media interface. ("Zune integration")
-Must bundle map software. MS has map data; it needs to create and bundle a basic app that works online and offline with GPS. Now that all phones have GPS this is a must.
-Can Microsoft make a device that looks good as both a pda and a handheld gaming device? It makes sense for MS to be in handheld gaming and if it can make something that also does e-mail/web/GPS&maps/media/phone that will generate some excitement. Gamers are an important market.
-MS should continue to license WM but also produce its own device(s). As a move to create standard products that get noticed and to bring technology to market faster.
-MS needs to be aggressive, invest a lot, take short-term losses to gain back market share and keep developers on the platform. Then WM will have long term prospects.

Even though the market has turned quickly against WM, I expect the next phase will be very important since hardware is going to evolve very quickly over the next year (tegra, snapdragon etc.) and will reward the system that makes the most out of it.

 

[Pony99CA]

Requirements

-Biggest strength of WM has been Exchange. But that is not a consumer technology (some oddballs like us aside). MS needs good "cloud"-based free/cheap e-mail/contacts/calendaring natively supported by WM. (Stripped-down version of exchange or "Live" integration with Outlook mobile.)

That's already done. Look at My Phone, which is already in Beta. I've been using it on my Omnia for at least two months, and I think it will be part of WM 6.5

-Must have a good media interface. ("Zune integration")

Eh, not so important to me. I think the current Windows Media Player interface is mostly fine. I would much rather see broader codec support. (Why can't I play MPEG, AVI, FLAC or OGG files without a third-party program?)

-Must bundle map software. MS has map data; it needs to create and bundle a basic app that works online and offline with GPS. Now that all phones have GPS this is a must.

For online access, I agree -- and Microsoft already has the Bing mobile client (formerly Live Search). I don't know if it will be bundled with WM 6.5, but I don't see why not.

However, for offline mapping, I disagree. There are two issues -- cost and space.

Cost is probably the biggest because MS would have to license mapping data, and I think mapping companies (TeleAtlas, Navteq) charge more for that than for online data. Don't believe me? Look at the price of stand-alone GPS software.

There's also the space issue. Maps of the U.S. can take 1-2 GB depending on the POI database. That's not so bad if you have internal storage of 4 GB or more, but not all devices have that much.

You might also get into some anti-trust issues with bundling stand-alone GPS software being anti-competitive, although as Microsoft doesn't really have a monopoly in mobile, maybe it's a non-issue.

-Can Microsoft make a device that looks good as both a pda and a handheld gaming device? It makes sense for MS to be in handheld gaming and if it can make something that also does e-mail/web/GPS&maps/media/phone that will generate some excitement. Gamers are an important market.

They're a niche market (albeit a large niche). How many mobile gaming devices really made it big? Nintendo with the GameBoy and DS, sure, but I'm not sure if Sony's PSP is a success. I won't even mention the Nokia NGage, the Gizmondo or the Tapwave Zodiac.

I think casual gaming (card games, simple puzzles, Tetris/Bejeweled, etc.) will be a much better market, and you don't need the horsepower that arcade gaming requires.

Although I'm sure there are people who play Madden or Call of Duty on their WM devices, I have to wonder whether they're really satisfied with the experience. I wouldn't think that small screens, mediocre graphics and sketchy controls would appeal much to hard core gamers.

But let's assume that Microsoft does produce a WBox (Windows Mobile XBox). Are you going to get one? If so, I suspect you'll still need a separate phone (good for Microsoft, not so good for you). Can you imagine trying to make a phone call on a DS or PSP?

-MS should continue to license WM but also produce its own device(s). As a move to create standard products that get noticed and to bring technology to market faster.

I think that's a horrible idea. If MS starts competing with their OEMs, I think that's the day the OEMs move to Android. Who would want to compete against the owner of the OS?

MS should produce reference designs (maybe using Danger) of devices, but shouldn't market their own.

Even though the market has turned quickly against WM, I expect the next phase will be very important since hardware is going to evolve very quickly over the next year (tegra, snapdragon etc.) and will reward the system that makes the most out of it.

Let's hope so.

Steve