Windows Smartphone ASP Is Plunging In 3Q 2013


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Jul 13, 2013
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Windows Smartphone ASP Is Plunging In 3Q 2013 - Forbes

AdDuplex, the world?s largest cross-promotion network for Windows smartphones is out with its August survey and the results are thought-provoking. AdDuplex measures handset market share shifts based on its app SDK, not phone sales. But its surveys have turned out to have a solid track record ? they for did forecast the steep Nokia NOK -1.69% smartphone ASP decline in 2Q 2013, for example.

Comparison between August and June global Windows smartphone shares is instructive. Over the two-month period, the high-end Lumia 920 share dropped from 12% to 11%, while the low-end Lumia 520 share soared from 8% to 18%. This is a truly precipitous switch to happen in just two months. AdDuples surveys have a lot of time lag built into them, because they measure app usage activity, not phone sales. So models bought two years ago and still used by consumers influence the results. In that context, the Lumia 520 share growth is titanic. It represents a massive shift towards the very cheapest Windows smartphone from all other price categories. The 520 can be bought for $99 as a pre-paid phone.

One factor that makes the 520 surge so impressive is the fact that it still has not made an impact in many markets; its Windows smartphone share is less than 1% in Argentina and below 7% in some affluent countries like Sweden. The 520 global share explosion is driven by its leap over 30% in Asian markets like India and Thailand. Since Nokia?s share of Windows smartphone market is hitting 87%, Nokia?s portfolio share shifts effectively dictate the direction of the entire Windows smartphone market.

What this implies is that the Windows smartphone market ASP is dropping like a stone during the autumn quarter. At the end of the spring quarter, the most popular Windows phone in the world was still the expensive Nokia flagship model, Lumia 920, with 12% global share. But by the second month of the autumn quarter, the cheapest Nokia Windows model was already leading the 920 by 18% to 11%. The speed of this mix shift is stunning considering that the shares we are looking at measure phone usage, not devices bought in any given month. It is worth noting that the share of the relatively expensive Lumia 820 also slipped to 7% from 8%.


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Aug 10, 2011
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This might be the reason why Nokia is in fact pushing what looks like an expensive Windows RT tablet, i.e. to push the ASP of its devices.

I suspect Nokia is looking to push some killer messaging around their tablets, especially if they're poised to cost like $499 without LTE and $699 (if not higher) with LTE.

It's going to be a risky move but with the right messaging and marketing it may pay off, but hell of a risk though.

Mark Wright1

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Nov 27, 2012
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The question that no-one can answer is
is where the sales are coming from
if its symbian to WP then good for real ASP
others =good
the percentages for high end have not changed dramatically so its not by the looks of it WP users going to cheaper handsets
and as its a usage thing its not second handset buyers either.

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