What if there won't be any windows mobile devices?

[Chintan Gohel]

There have been several articles that analyse every statement made by every Microsoft employee and executive about the future of windows mobile devices and the windows mobile OS

There have been several proofs given and reasons given as to why there will be future windows mobile devices. This is what we have been hanging on as windows mobile fans and users

And yet, there are also those that have no faith that anything Microsoft will do will work out, that the next windows mobile device, whether it be called the surface phone or the surface note or surface mobile or anything of that sort, will every work out, will every make a profit and take up some significant level of market share in the phone/mobile space

Even if the mobile had the best camera, the fastest processors, the best storage options and the best screen, folding or otherwise, many claim that it would not make any difference at all since the 2 current heavyweights in the phone space have become entrenched, that their app ecosystem is too vibrant, too good for Microsoft to make any inroads.

So here's a thought - what if Microsoft already know this, that their hopes have no viable future, that anything they would do would make no difference?

• What if Microsoft have no plans at all to create and market the next mobile device that is running Windows OS in some form or the other?
• What if the current retrenchment policy is there to make sure that the number of windows mobile devices become so few so as to make the world forget that there used to a be a good third option in mobile OS?
• What if Microsoft are just going to depend on Azure, office 365, windows and office licensing, search, xbox and device revenue only for the foreseeable future? And revenue from mobile will come from iOS and Android from the apps and search and other related revenue streams?
• What if the device in your hand could potentially be your last windows mobile device that you will hold?

Think about it - there have been many instances where we have doubted the commitment of Microsoft to come back to the mobile device market

• Current support for mobile phones keeps on decreasing with every month
• No new models have been released worldwide, either from Microsoft or from HP and others - and I mean worldwide, don't claim US or Germany can be considered as the world
• Mobile OS updates are not at par with pc OS updates
• Now new significant features have been added in a long time
• Older devices are getting less and less support, leading to more fragmentation of the apps ecosystem
• With such a low visibility and presence, a new device rollout cannot be successful without significant investment in marketing and promotion, I daresay even more promotion than with all surface devices in the last few years

What do you think? Can this be the reality? Or is it already a reality and Microsoft just want to ignore the whole thing?

Comment below, but respectfully

Thank you

 

[kaktus1389]

Well I used to think the same way but the leaked CShell build gave me hope. I am still not 100% sure about what I am going to do but I hope I will be able to hold on to my 950 until October 2018.

Microsoft has good reasons to not release a new mobile device, but if they learnt from their mistakes form the past they should know exactly what they did wrong (cough cough marketing cough cough), then I think they could achieve great things, especially if they manage to convert all centennial apps to full UWP apps. To be honest, we all know it always has been and still is about apps. If they don't approach developers properly and make a great device that is going to present the power of Windows 10 and UWP to the consumers and market it all correctly, they should be good to go.

Apple innovations are at all time low, yet their sales are at all time high and that's all because of the build quality of their devices and their marketing department. MS learnt how to market Surface properly, hope they do the same with mobile devices.

 

[anon(50597)]

You often hear MS say they will release another mobile device "but it won't look like what is currently out there". So the question is, what do you want? If its something like the current crop I doubt it. They have lost that war. If its something different, perhaps, but expect to pay a premium price for it and expect to wait a couple years.
That's my take.

Sent from mTalk on my SP4

 

[libra89]

I think Microsoft will probably always have something in the back of their pocket, if at least for testing.

I'll see what's to come for CShell.

 

[metllicamilitia]

@kaktus1389 I don’t think Apple innovations are at all time low. Not just because I use Apple myself, but because Apple is innovating more in software and tiny components than anything else right now. When they finally do release whatever else they’re working on, someone else has usually released it first.

On topic though, I believe there is a place for Microsoft in the mobile market. If it’s done it’s done, but I also believe Microsoft could and should do more to bring attention to it and get developer support. Without developer support you’ll never have the customer base, not in this era of apps.

 

[kaktus1389]

@kaktus1389 I don’t think Apple innovations are at all time low. Not just because I use Apple myself, but because Apple is innovating more in software and tiny components than anything else right now. When they finally do release whatever else they’re working on, someone else has usually released it first.

On topic though, I believe there is a place for Microsoft in the mobile market. If it’s done it’s done, but I also believe Microsoft could and should do more to bring attention to it and get developer support. Without developer support you’ll never have the customer base, not in this era of apps.

What I was talking about is hardware - obviously a touchbar doesn't stand a chance against full touchscreen and all I've seen changing on iPhones over last 3 years is just the size, thinness, lightness and camera. The rest all seems the same to me. Didn't spot anything like MS brought with Continuum (or it was supposed to bring with McLaren - I don't count Apple's force touch in this category) or Samsung brought with Dex or anything new that would make it a definitive winner.

 

[kaktus1389]

You often hear MS say they will release another mobile device "but it won't look like what is currently out there". So the question is, what do you want? If its something like the current crop I doubt it. They have lost that war. If its something different, perhaps, but expect to pay a premium price for it and expect to wait a couple years.
That's my take.

Sent from mTalk on my SP4

For now I still think that most people would settle for a nicely designed phone with good hardware and apps.

 

[anon(50597)]

For now I still think that most people would settle for a nicely designed phone with good hardware and apps.

True, but will they make one?

 

[kaktus1389]

True, but will they make one?

I don't think so because they are not capable of delivering one of those three essential things

 

[PerfectReign]

On topic though, I believe there is a place for Microsoft in the mobile market. .

Concur. But not in the way everyone is thinking.

Look at it this way - as an app developer, I can choose to support Iphone, and/or Android and/or WM10.

OR

I chose to support an app platform like Skype Bots or WeChat on which I can have my service run. Seems that may be a future trend.

Keep in mind, too, our kids wont want a stupid 4", 5", or 6" slab that can break. They may want something completely different.

With MS making excellent apps for Iphone, Android, and 10 - they are staying relevant.

 

[aiharkness]

The reality? I don't believe Microsoft has given up. At least that is my hope as an old school BlackBerry user who doesn't want to use iOS and won't use Android. Can Microsoft make it eventually? I really don't know. I have faith in the market place that if Microsoft gives users a stunning alternative then yes. But Microsoft can't do it otherwise.

What if Microsoft is done with mobile? If I don't have a good alternative I may give up smartphones, use a dumb phone for voice and get a mobile hotspot. I already carry an ultrabook when I travel, so data would have to wait until I can get to it, but I would get to it.

Still, I don't think Microsoft is done. Maybe done with mobile hardware, but it definitely isnt done with mobile device software. That's my bet anyway. EDIT: Afterthought. On this I guess a question is whether an OEM manufacturer on its own would design, build, and sell hardware and license Microsoft's OS? I don't know that either. I admit that now that I think about it, the answer, to me anyway, isn't obviously a big yes, for sure, no question about it.

 

[Drael646464]

*Os code shows new device SKU for "Andromeda"
*MS promises to bring new keyboard to whole OS, mobile included
*MS promises to bring "enterprise features" to w10m late US summer
*MS _demo's_ and promises to bring files on demand to win10m
*MS promises to bring timeline to win10m
*HP works with MSFT closely, and teases "probably the new x3"
*Wharton brooks told "don't release your new phone, we won't support it for rs3, because we are making some changes to mobile, but they can't say any more, hush hush"
*UWP, entire future of the windows platform -win10m, UWP powered OS
*CEO says "we will make more phones, they just won't look like smartphones today"
*COO of surface division "we will make more phones, they just won't look like smartphones today".
*Cshell seen in proto, runs on x3

NOW, what you are proposing is that this is a complete wall of lies. That not one element of it is true, and that MSFT, will fall flat on its face, with consumers, developers and its one OS, onecore, UWP - all will be admitted as farce, and MSFT will roll over and give up, because it gain immediate success with the ambitious goal of unifying windows.

AND what you are proposing is that they have software prototypes, on win10m, for things like files on demand, and cshell, with probably thousands of man hours involved coding them, and despite all that wasted money, have no intention to release any of it.

I find that concept, not credible. The simplest explaination is usually the correct one.

I don't know exactly what the plan is over the next few years, but I know that its not "giving up". Companies give up when they take losses, and lose profitability. When they are profitable, or investing rather than bleeding losses, they try to invest and expand into every viable area.

I mean, look at this - google has ambition for entering the desktop market. They are developing a new desktop/mobile hybrid OS, called fushia - do they, IMO, have any real chance of total success in the desktop market? No.

Would they even take a tiny sliver? Well, maybe. Maybe. I wouldn't call chrome a success globally. And replacing android might make some people a little put out, as people have invested in that. And yet, they are investing money in it. Because that's what corporations do, they expand. The plan, the machinate, they wheel and deal.

Like the royal bloodlines in game of thrones.

 

[Drael646464]

I think whats going to actually happen for updates however is this, if I am game to guess - a few minor features added before rs3 (mostly enterprise). Continued work on bugfixes primarily. Feature 2. Major updates next year, and a re-merger with the main build (timeline, Cortana skills, files on demand, maybe even cshell), in the early year update. MAYBE even a new phone to tide them over until the release of Andromeda, and co-inciding with the release of the major features (I say, maybe, only because the whisphers are strong with that rumour, like Andromeda, which is 'code confirmed"). Then...who knows. Maybe that's the end of the line for current phones. Maybe it'll go on for a tiny bit longer.

I think HP will have a new phone this year. I'd be relatively willing to bet on it. Their release will probably co-incide with the late summer "productivity features", and will likely include even more of their own software.

 

[Drael646464]

But I think there is zero chance of "that's it, we are done for ever, no more pocket cellular devices ever".

Unless the apocalypse comes. Or the great depression 2. Or world war 3. Then, yeah sure.

 

[Drael646464]

Concur. But not in the way everyone is thinking.

Look at it this way - as an app developer, I can choose to support Iphone, and/or Android and/or WM10.

OR

I chose to support an app platform like Skype Bots or WeChat on which I can have my service run. Seems that may be a future trend.

Keep in mind, too, our kids wont want a stupid 4", 5", or 6" slab that can break. They may want something completely different.

With MS making excellent apps for Iphone, Android, and 10 - they are staying relevant.

MSFT makes several options there that are more platform agnostic. Theres coding with xamarin, using c sharp, and re-using up to 70 percent of code across all three platforms (android, ios, and windows) AS WELL, as getting your app on every windows platform in the process - xbox, HoloLens, hub, mixed reality, windows tablets and win10m (as well as Andromeda, whatever that turns out to be)

Or using something like Microsoft bot framework, which is also platform agnostic, and can run on Cortana, skype, web apps etc. While the "super app" future isn't fully here yet, outside of FB, and wechat, surely its a more platform agnostic approach that will eventually woo developers.

 

[anon(50597)]

*Os code shows new device SKU for "Andromeda"
*MS promises to bring new keyboard to whole OS, mobile included
*MS promises to bring "enterprise features" to w10m late US summer
*MS _demo's_ and promises to bring files on demand to win10
*MS promises to bring timeline to win10m
*HP works with MSFT closely, and teases probably new x3
*Wharton brooks told "don't release your new phone, we won't support it for rs3, because we are making some changes to mobile"
*UWP, entire future of the windows platform -win10m, UWP powered OS
*CEO says "we will make more phones, they just won't look like smartphones today"
*COO of surface division "we will make more phones, they just won't look like smartphones today".
*Cshell seen in proto

NOW, what you are proposing is that this is a complete wall of lies. That not one element of it is true, and that MSFT, will fall flat on its face, with consumers, developers and its one OS, onecore, UWP - all will be admitted as total nonsense, and MSFT will roll over and give up, because it gain immediate success with the ambitious goal of unifying windows. AND what you are proposing is that they have software prototypes, on win10m, for things like files on demand, and cshell, with probably thousands of man hours involved coding them, and despite all that wasted money, have no intention to release any of it.

I find that concept, not credible. I don't know exactly what the plan is over the next few years, but I know that its not "giving up". Companies give up when they take losses, and lose profitability. When they are profitable they try to invest and expand into every viable area.

I mean, look at this - google has ambitious for entering the desktop market. They are developing a new desktop/mobile hybrid OS, called fushia - do they, IMO, have any real chance of total success in the desktop market? No. Would they even take a tiny sliver? Well, maybe. And yet, they are investing money in it. Because that's what corporations do, they expand.

You can promise all you want, but you also have to deliver and there has to be a demand. Those two things we don't know yet.
I find it very exciting and look forward to see what happens. I also believe people are expecting (what the OP is asking about) consumer devices and what MS is aiming for is more enterprise driven. I don't believe these dream devices will be common in the consumer market (except for the wealthy) for many years to come. Therefore, Google and Apple will continue to lead that market for a while.
I'm just trying to be realistic and not let my emotions get the best of me. Thoughts?

Sent from mTalk on my SP4

 

[Drael646464]

You can promise all you want, but you also have to deliver and there has to be a demand. Those two things we don't know yet.
I find it very exciting and look forward to see what happens. I also believe people are expecting (what the OP is asking about) consumer devices and what MS is aiming for is more enterprise driven. I don't believe these dream devices will be common in the consumer market (except for the wealthy) for many years to come. Therefore, Google and Apple will continue to lead that market for a while.
I'm just trying to be realistic and not let my emotions get the best of me. Thoughts?

Sent from mTalk on my SP4

Well, making a whole raft of very clear promises, and failing to every slightly deliver isn't very commercially smart. People who do that sort of thing tend to get fired. So I don't really have a lot of doubts there.

Demand? Well, some of those features will get inferior versions on ios and android, so there probably will be demand. At least for the software. Some others are enterprise focused. Which there may or may not be demand for, we don't know how useful they are.

The exact timeline was never mentioned however (no pun intended XD), so we don't really know that. And I don't think any of that alone will re-ignite win10m sales without at least some semi-interesting new hardware and a little marketing pizzaz.

Cshell might create a little buzz, if its marketed. Andromeda probably will because the tech media will talk about it a lot if MSFT attempts a new device catergory.

Shrug?

I don't reckon "Andromeda" is that far off (whatever the device is finally called, or the OS that does with it). If I had to guess, Andromeda might be late next year?
It's already worked its way into the current code, much like scorpio did recently. And the whispers are picking up of a "new device with a new OS", so there is _some_ teasing occurring. I think that all points to "not that far off".
Not years. More like "a year".

Will it be enterprise focused? IDK, maybe? Well it be expensive? I'd say probably not. Its not made of gold or graphene, I don't think. I think its a new form factor, I am guessing what it is exactly, but I doubt its flexible OLED given the expense at this point of graphene, so its going that have "creases", like "westworld tablets", as opposed the creaseless flexible OLED.

Then again, if someone did release a very expensive flexible OLED screen, its worth remembering that's the sort of price the HoloLens is, and business users use that, but its also like the price of the original mobile phones - they were very expensive, and business only. Now more people have them than people have computers. Sometimes you have to start somewhere to try and drive production costs down.

However, on that point I am 100% realistic, a creaseless, folding tablet phone, even if it only uses a tiny amount of graphene, if its released by anyone, will be an elite exclusive for probably nearly a decade before production costs come down.

But I SUSPECT what msft is planning is more of an "interim" product. Something LIKE that, but with a crease, and two separate screens. A sort of 'enabling technology" to help build the useage and ecosystem for that later tech. Wild speculation I admit. I don't know if their new device is folding or not, but it _seems_ a lot like it from the code mentioning a hinge value and two separate sets of gyros.

HOWEVER...will it be pitched at consumers? Will it be popular, or even mildly successful? Will it be at all cool, and fun? IDK, tune in next week and find out if batman can escape the joker....

 

[Drael646464]

No doubt the HP refresh is 100 percent enterprise focused.

But at least if they release something, those other vaguely Microsoft-curious OEMS like wiley fox, whartonbrooks, coship and TCL/alcatel can have a look at whatever MSFTs new changed standard is, and cease on what seems quite obviously to be a "wait up guys we are doing something with the OS" from Microsoft. Or after rs3, when they give at least the OEMs a hint as to what the heck they are playing at.

That's not a market success, nor consumer popularity, but it would be nice for us fans, for some of those OEMs to be able to start to move forward again XD

Given what Wharton brooks has said I am almost certain OEMs have been told to wait. Except for HP, who seem to be 'in on it'.

It definitely sucks being 'in limbo' due to corporate secrecies.

 

[arielwp]

Almost no one uses W10M, so eventually I believe the future will not be as good. I might stay as a phone for business (change of niche) and low-end phones in some countries imo, but as long as Microsoft's efforts to get a share of Apple's and Android's market is failing, there isn't much hope, if being realistic.

 

[kaktus1389]

*Os code shows new device SKU for "Andromeda"
*MS promises to bring new keyboard to whole OS, mobile included
*MS promises to bring "enterprise features" to w10m late US summer
*MS _demo's_ and promises to bring files on demand to win10m
*MS promises to bring timeline to win10m
*HP works with MSFT closely, and teases "probably the new x3"
*Wharton brooks told "don't release your new phone, we won't support it for rs3, because we are making some changes to mobile, but they can't say any more, hush hush"
*UWP, entire future of the windows platform -win10m, UWP powered OS
*CEO says "we will make more phones, they just won't look like smartphones today"
*COO of surface division "we will make more phones, they just won't look like smartphones today".
*Cshell seen in proto, runs on x3

NOW, what you are proposing is that this is a complete wall of lies. That not one element of it is true, and that MSFT, will fall flat on its face, with consumers, developers and its one OS, onecore, UWP - all will be admitted as farce, and MSFT will roll over and give up, because it gain immediate success with the ambitious goal of unifying windows.

AND what you are proposing is that they have software prototypes, on win10m, for things like files on demand, and cshell, with probably thousands of man hours involved coding them, and despite all that wasted money, have no intention to release any of it.

I find that concept, not credible. The simplest explaination is usually the correct one.

I don't know exactly what the plan is over the next few years, but I know that its not "giving up". Companies give up when they take losses, and lose profitability. When they are profitable, or investing rather than bleeding losses, they try to invest and expand into every viable area.

I mean, look at this - google has ambition for entering the desktop market. They are developing a new desktop/mobile hybrid OS, called fushia - do they, IMO, have any real chance of total success in the desktop market? No.

Would they even take a tiny sliver? Well, maybe. Maybe. I wouldn't call chrome a success globally. And replacing android might make some people a little put out, as people have invested in that. And yet, they are investing money in it. Because that's what corporations do, they expand. The plan, the machinate, they wheel and deal.

Like the royal bloodlines in game of thrones.

There is one thing you have not mentioned in there - it's apps. They can deliver all kinds of hardware and OS innovation, but if they don't get developers to port/rewrite their apps for Windows 10, then it doesn't stand a chance. Remember McLaren? Remember the former concepts for the 950 and 950 XL?

At first I didn't understand why didn't MS release McLaren and the 950 series as planned, but now I am quite confident that I know why. The answer I've got is so simple but many people out there don't think of it and it is: they didn't have any apps compatible with the new hardware features except their own apps and they thought they couldn't make developers to write them properly. I wonder why.